【广发非银&海外】中银航空租赁 （02588.HK） 负债端延续高企，待降息释放利润弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩：上半年经营收入及其他收入总额 11.74 亿美元，同比增长 11%，净利润 4.60 亿美元，较 2023 年上半年的 2.62 亿美元增长 76%。剔除减值影响后，核心净利润同比增长 10%。 ⚫ 资产端：融资租赁扩表+飞机销售贡献收入弹性。（1）交付受供应紧缺 影响表现较弱，24H1 交付 18 架新飞机（23H1 为 16 架），自有飞机 利用率为 99%。18 架飞机中有 6 架记为经营租赁资产、有 12 架记为 融资租赁资产。（2）经营租赁：经营租赁收入 yoy-1.3%，占经营收入 总额近 80%。租金收入下降主因飞机销售数量大于经营租赁引入的飞 机数量，24H1 出售 15 架飞机（去年同期 3 架），经营租赁飞机资产余 额 187.49 亿美元，较 23 年底下滑 2%。24H1 经营租赁费率为 9.8%， 与 2023 年上半年一致，公司出售飞机平均机龄为 10 年，13-14 年飞 机租金收益率较高，上述资产出售可能结构 ...

证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 (%)中银航空租赁 恒生指数 (22) (12) (2) 9 19 Aug-23 Dec-23 Apr-24 Aug-24 资料来源：S&P 基本数据 预计 2024 年净租赁收益率不会低于 2023 年 1H24 年净租赁收益率 7.0%（1H23：7.0%），经营性租赁费率为 9.8%（1H23： 9.8%），2023 年全年净租赁收益率/租赁费率为 7.1/10%，隐含 1H24 的净 租赁收益率和租赁费率可能低于 2H23。我们认为这可能是由于延迟交付对 租赁费率的拖累，以及资金成本的上涨。1H24 资金成本涨至 4.6%（1H23： 3.9%）。1H24 公司交付 18 架飞机，出售 15 架飞机，签署 55 份租约承诺， 自有机队数量小幅上涨至 429 架（1Q24：427 架），平均剩余租期 7.9 年， 平均机龄 4.9 年。融资性租赁贡献提升，1H24 融租收入同比增长 380%， 融租租赁费率涨至 7.2%（1H23：6.2%）。未来随着有更高租赁费率的新飞 机交付以及全球高息压力部分释放，我们认为 2024 年的净租赁收益率可能 不 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 盈利超预期，美联储降息预期利好成本改善 中银航空租赁(2588) [Table_Industry] 综合金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——中银航空租赁 2024 年半年报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.16 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|----------------------|-------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 谢雨晟(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38674943 | 021-38038619 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | Xieyusheng@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融 -21% -1% 19% 39% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 15 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 69.20 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6035.27 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/47.15 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 480.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0914 | 财务数据及盈利预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2,307 | 2,461 | | | | | 同比增长率（%） | 6 | 7 | 5 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容 而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 BOC AVIATION LIMITED 中銀航空租賃有限公司 * （於新加坡共和國註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：2588 截至2024年6月30日止六個月的 中期業績公告 財務摘要 我們截至2024年6月30日止六個月的財務摘要如下： • 經營收入及其他收入總額為11.74億美元，較去年的10.61億美元增長11% • 稅後淨利潤為4.60億美元，較2023年上半年的2.62億美元增長76% • 每股收益為0.66美元，較2023年上半年的每股0.38美元亦上升76% • 董事會宣派中期股息每股0.1988美元，2023年上半年為每股0.1131美元 • 截至2024年6月30日的資產總額為243億美元，與2023年12月31日持平，淨資 產有史以來首次超過60億美元 • 錄得上半年經營現金流量（扣除利息）9.08億美元 • 流動性保持強勁，截至2024年6月30日，除49億美元未動用已承諾貸款授信 ...

[Table_Title] 【广发非银&海外】中银航空租赁 （02588.HK） 利润弹性大于预期，估值稳健上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024 年 8 月 5 日公司发布正面盈利预告，公告显示公司 2024 年上半 年净利润同比增速在 70-80%，主因 2024 年 3 月初自俄罗斯收回的 2 架飞机带来的增量影响。 ⚫ 复盘 2023 年俄罗斯保险赔付金额，首先，2022 年俄乌冲突为公司带 来 5.07 亿美元的净亏损。2023 年 11 月俄罗斯保险公司针对滞留俄罗 斯的 8 架飞机赔付 2.08 亿美元，到 2023 年底俄罗斯保险公司已针对 11 架飞机赔付 2.58 亿美元。 ⚫ （1）飞机销售数量：公司 2024H1 销售自有飞机 15 架，2023 年 H1 同期仅销售 3 架飞机，参考同业公司，截至 24H1，AERCAP\AIRLEASE 共计销售 64、16 架，去年同期销售 49、10 架，亦有所增长，一定程 度反应波音交付下滑加快航司向飞机租赁公司购买飞机的动作，同时， 飞机销售数量的增长有望推高销售净额。 ⚫ （2）应收租赁款增长：公司应收租赁款在 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 78 HKD per share, compared to the current price of 56.50 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant improvement in operational data, particularly in aircraft sales, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - The average age of the company's owned fleet increased to 4.9 years as of Q2 2024, up from 4.6 years in 2023, indicating a potential increase in sales of older assets [3]. - The delivery of aircraft has been negatively impacted, with Boeing and Airbus delivering 131 and 256 aircraft respectively from January to May 2024, compared to 206 and 244 in the same period of 2023 [4]. - The decline in delivery levels is expected to support continued growth in rental income [4]. - The company benefits from a decrease in interest costs due to lower U.S. Treasury yields, which may enhance profit margins [5]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of 840 million USD for 2024 and 885 million USD for 2025, with core net profit expected to grow significantly in a declining interest rate environment [5]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - The company delivered a total of 18 aircraft and sold 15 in the first half of 2024, compared to 16 deliveries and 3 sales in the same period last year [2]. - Increased aircraft sales are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth in the first half of 2024 [3]. Delivery and Rental Income - The overall delivery levels of Boeing and Airbus have decreased, which is expected to positively impact rental income due to supply constraints [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2,307 million USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 9.90% [6]. - The net profit is expected to grow at a rate of 9.95% in 2024, reaching 840 million USD [6].

证券研究报告 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 港股通 2Q24:飞机交付 13 架,售出 11 架 华泰研究 公告点评 2024 年 7 月 09 日│中国香港 租赁 | | | |-------------------------------|---------------------------| | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | 目标价(港币): | 78.00 | | 研究员 SAC No. S0570521010001 | 李健,PhDlijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 联系人 | 陈宇轩 | | SAC No. S0570122070171 | chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 稳健经营,发行公司史上最窄利差的美元债券 中银航空租赁(BOCA)7 月 8 日披露了 2Q24 运营数据。2Q24 末,公司 自有飞机数量提升至 429 架(1Q24:427 架),自有飞机利用率环比持平。 飞机机龄和剩余租期保持健康。在飞机价值的上升周期中,公 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 79.94, corresponding to a 2024 P/B of 1.14x [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the improvement in performance is driven by both asset and liability sides, with expectations of revenue growth from increased leasing rates and reduced financing costs due to anticipated interest rate declines [3][25]. - The demand for air transport is recovering, leading to an expected increase in leasing rates, while the company's financing costs are projected to decrease as global interest rates decline [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The report identifies the company as one of the largest aircraft operating leasing firms globally, with a strong management team and a focus on operational leasing, which alleviates cash flow pressures for airlines [9][19]. - The company has shown resilience and recovery in performance post-pandemic, with a significant rebound in 2023 [25][22]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a mismatch in supply and demand, with strong aircraft demand driving rental yield increases, while financing costs are expected to decline due to lower interest rates [3][38]. - The aircraft manufacturing capacity is limited, primarily relying on Boeing and Airbus, which affects the supply of new aircraft to meet rising demand [38]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at USD 2.533 billion, USD 2.697 billion, and USD 2.835 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 6.5%, and 5.1% respectively [3][7]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are USD 783 million, USD 892 million, and USD 991 million, with growth rates of 2.5%, 13.9%, and 11.2% respectively [3][7]. 4. Revenue Composition - In 2023, the company achieved rental income of USD 1.911 billion, accounting for 77.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [27][29]. - The increase in rental income is attributed to the growth in the number of aircraft in the operating lease fleet and improved rental yield [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on BOC Aviation (2588 HK) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 69 92, representing a 24x PB multiple for 2024 [1][8] Core Views - BOC Aviation is a leading aircraft leasing company with a competitive edge in transaction structuring, low-cost financing, negotiation capabilities, and aircraft asset management [1][3] - The company's short-term profitability was impacted by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but its cash flow remained stable due to robust legal frameworks in the aviation leasing industry [1] - With the recovery of global aviation demand and potential interest rate declines, BOC Aviation's profitability is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels [1][4] Business Overview - BOC Aviation operates primarily in operating leases, sale-and-leaseback, and third-party asset management services, with a fleet of 426 owned aircraft as of December 2023 [1] - The company's fleet is well-diversified, with 80% consisting of narrow-body aircraft, and it has a strong order book of 224 aircraft as of December 2023 [30][51] - BOC Aviation's revenue and profitability have shown resilience, with 2023 revenue reaching USD 2 46 billion, up 6 7% YoY, and net profit recovering to USD 763 9 million [33] Competitive Advantages - **Transaction Structuring**: The company maintains an effective tax rate of around 10%, lower than peers, due to its expertise in structuring cross-border transactions [1][43] - **Low-Cost Financing**: BOC Aviation benefits from a strong credit rating, long operating history, and support from its parent company, Bank of China, enabling it to maintain a low debt cost of around 3% annually [1][45] - **Negotiation Power**: With a stable and experienced management team, the company has strong bargaining power with suppliers and customers, enhancing its competitiveness [1][52] - **Aircraft Asset Management**: The company's strategy of customer diversification, flexible operational adjustments, and active aircraft trading improves fleet utilization and investment returns [1][54] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow to USD 2 5 billion, USD 2 68 billion, and USD 2 92 billion for 2024-2026, with net profit expected to reach USD 710 million, USD 770 million, and USD 880 million, respectively [1][71] - EPS is projected at USD 1 02, USD 1 10, and USD 1 27 for 2024-2026, with ROE stabilizing at around 11 4%-12 1% [1][71] Industry Outlook - Global aviation demand is recovering, with 2023 passenger traffic reaching 94 1% of 2019 levels, driving demand for aircraft leasing [61] - Aircraft values and lease rates have rebounded post-pandemic, benefiting lessors like BOC Aviation [63] - A potential decline in interest rates could further enhance the company's profitability by reducing financing costs [64] - Boeing forecasts a demand for 42,595 new aircraft globally over the next 20 years, with China accounting for 8,560 of these, indicating significant growth potential for the leasing industry [66]