Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - JD Logistics is acquiring the remaining 36.43% stake in Kuaijie Express for no more than RMB 6.484 billion, resulting in full ownership of Kuaijie Express. The acquisition will be paid in three installments, consisting of a base price and profit-sharing payments [2][8]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance synergies and support international business development, with anticipated benefits including growth in Kuaijie Express's performance, deeper brand collaboration, and improved management efficiency [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 180.3 billion, RMB 196.0 billion, and RMB 211.2 billion, with growth rates of 8.2%, 8.7%, and 7.8% respectively [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 7.26 billion, RMB 7.95 billion, and RMB 8.79 billion, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.0%, 4.1%, and 4.2% [4][10]. - The company expects Kuaijie Express's net profit to reach RMB 2.149 billion and RMB 2.351 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [2][8]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that Kuaijie Express's net profit for 2022 and 2023 was RMB 0.848 billion and RMB 1.447 billion, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 70.6% in 2023 [3][9]. - The base profit for the acquisition is calculated at a 15x PE ratio, with base profits projected at RMB 0.83 billion for 2023, RMB 0.892 billion for 2024, and RMB 0.959 billion for 2025 [2][8]. Market Data - As of December 10, 2024, the closing price of the stock is HKD 14.5, with a total market capitalization of HKD 96.1 billion [6]. - The total share capital is 6.627 billion shares, and the net assets attributable to shareholders amount to RMB 50.8 billion [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Outperform** rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of **HKD 23.19**, revised from HKD 19.91, representing a 16% increase [3][10] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved **RMB 44.40 billion** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **6.6% YoY increase**, with **Non-IFRS net profit** reaching **RMB 2.60 billion**, up **205.1% YoY** [2][7] - The **Non-IFRS net profit margin** rose to **5.8%**, a **3.8 percentage point increase** from 2.0% in 2023 [2][7] - The company's **integrated supply chain business** contributed **RMB 20.70 billion**, a **5.4% YoY growth**, driven by increased revenue from JD Group and external clients [2][8] - External integrated supply chain clients reached **57,900**, a **9% YoY increase**, with **average revenue per client** at **RMB 133,000** [2][8] - Revenue from other clients grew **7.6% YoY** to **RMB 23.70 billion**, primarily due to increased parcel volume in express delivery and freight business [2][8] Financial Performance - **Gross profit margin** improved to **11.7%**, a **7.9 percentage point increase** from Q3 2023, driven by product and network optimization, technology-driven efficiency, and refined resource management [3][9] - **Operating costs** were **RMB 39.20 billion**, up **2.2% YoY**, reflecting effective cost control measures [3][9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach **RMB 178.91 billion**, a **7.4% YoY increase**, with a **Non-IFRS net profit margin** of **4.3%** [3][10] - The company's valuation method shifted from **PS to PE** as it entered a stable profit phase, with **Non-IFRS net profit** expected to be **RMB 7.77 billion** in 2024 and **RMB 9.45 billion** in 2025 [3][10] - The current market capitalization implies a **2024/2025 valuation** of **11X/9X**, with a reasonable valuation range of **15X**, corresponding to the target price of **HKD 23.19** [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for revenue growth and profitability improvements [2][7] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by its integration with Taotian, which is expected to enhance customer ARPU and attract new clients [2][5] - Cost reduction measures have significantly improved profitability, with adjusted net profit increasing by 205.1% YoY in 2024Q3 [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 180.3 billion, 196.0 billion, and 211.2 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.0%, 4.1%, and 4.2% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024Q3, the company's total revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% YoY increase [5] - Integrated supply chain revenue was 20.7 billion RMB, with internal revenue from JD Group growing 8.1% YoY to 12.79 billion RMB, while external revenue was 7.87 billion RMB, with customer numbers up 9.4% but ARPU down 7.4% [5] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, supported by improved service capabilities and expanded air routes [5] Cost Efficiency - In 2024Q3, employee benefits, outsourcing costs, rental costs, depreciation, and other operating costs were 14.6 billion, 15.0 billion, 3.1 billion, 1.1 billion, and 5.4 billion RMB, respectively, with changes of +4.8%, +2.7%, 0.0%, +10.0%, and -5.3% YoY [6] - Gross margin improved to 11.7%, up 3.8 percentage points YoY, driven by automation, optimized vehicle scheduling, and network structure improvements [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance service quality by increasing transportation routes and frontline staff, while exploring opportunities in industrial belts [7] - Integration with Taotian is expected to provide a new revenue stream, contributing to future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$20.67, representing a 39% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [2][3] - The target price has been revised upward by 17% from the previous target of HK$17.68 [5] Core Views - JD Logistics demonstrated strong profitability in 3Q24, with non-IFRS net profit margin increasing to 5.2% from 1.3% in 3Q23, driven by efficiency improvements despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company's adjusted net profit surged 313% YoY in 3Q24, supported by robust margin expansion, particularly in gross margin [10] - Access to Tmall/Taobao merchants and overseas expansion are identified as two key long-term growth drivers [9][11] - JD Logistics plans to double its self-operated warehousing space for international business by 2025, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region [11] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, with revenue from JD Group and third-party channels increasing by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively [11] - Gross margin improved to 10.6% in 2024E, up from 7.6% in 2023A, reflecting the company's efficiency initiatives [13][20] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E has been revised upward by 36.2%/24.4%/20.4% to RMB 0.93/1.07/1.19 [5][20] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 3.3% in 2024E, up from 2.4% previously forecasted [20] Valuation - The target price of HK$20.67 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [21][22] - JD Logistics is currently trading at a 28.0% discount to the revised target price, with a 2024E P/E of 14.6x and 2025E P/E of 12.6x [21] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry remains highly competitive, but JD Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from its access to Tmall/Taobao platforms, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [11] - The company's international business, though relatively small, is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth with manageable capital expenditure [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved record-high profitability in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization and external order growth [3] - External orders remain the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.20% of total revenue [6] - The company's net profit surged 438.15% YoY to RMB 2.445 billion in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 44.396 billion, up 6.56% YoY [3] - Internal revenue from JD Group grew 8.13% YoY to RMB 12.788 billion, accounting for 28.80% of total revenue [6] - External revenue increased 5.94% YoY to RMB 31.608 billion [6] Profitability - Net profit attributable to shareholders skyrocketed 928.77% YoY to RMB 2.205 billion [3] - Non-IFRS profit rose 205.14% YoY to RMB 2.573 billion [3] - Gross profit margin improved by 3.79 percentage points to 11.71% [10] Cost Structure - Operating costs increased 2.18% YoY to RMB 39.198 billion, lower than revenue growth [11] - Outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.26 percentage points [11] Business Segments External Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue grew 1.23% YoY to RMB 7.875 billion, representing 17.74% of total revenue [6] - Customer base expanded 9.36% YoY to 59,300 [6] Pure Distribution Business - Revenue increased 7.60% YoY to RMB 23.733 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue [6] - Deppon contributed RMB 9.850 billion, up 1.03% YoY [6] - Non-Deppon revenue grew 12.80% YoY to RMB 13.883 billion [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow 9%, 8%, and 7% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 182.424 billion, RMB 196.535 billion, and RMB 211.010 billion respectively [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase 1035%, 10%, and 10% in 2024-2026 [12] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 13.03x, 11.83x, and 10.80x for 2024-2026 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting expectations of significant growth in the next 6-12 months [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 130.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.5% YoY increase, with a net profit of RMB 4.47 billion, turning from a loss to a profit [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached RMB 44.4 billion, up 6.6% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 2.2 billion, a 929% YoY increase [2] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts have significantly enhanced profitability, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 11.7% [2] - The company has expanded its overseas presence by opening new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, and has partnered with Taotian Group to integrate with the Taobao and Tmall platforms [2] Financial Performance - Revenue from JD Group grew by 8.1% in Q3 2024, higher than the overall growth rate, driven by growth in fast-moving consumer goods, 3C, and apparel sectors [2] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers reached RMB 20.7 billion in Q3 2024, with internal JD Group revenue growing 8.1% and external revenue growing 1.2% [2] - Other customer revenue increased by 7.6% to RMB 23.7 billion, mainly due to increased business volume in express and freight services [2] - Operating costs in Q3 2024 were RMB 39.2 billion, up only 2.2% YoY, reflecting improved operational efficiency and cost control [2] Future Projections - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 6.7 billion, RMB 7.7 billion, and RMB 8.8 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of RMB 4.6 billion, RMB 5.2 billion, and RMB 5.9 billion [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow to 9.63% in 2024, 5.70% in 2025, and 5.89% in 2026, reflecting a maturing market [4] - Net profit growth is projected to be 984.16% in 2024, 15.13% in 2025, and 14.24% in 2026, indicating strong profitability improvements [4] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating costs in Q3 2024 were driven by a 4.8% increase in employee compensation, reflecting workforce expansion [2] - Gross profit in Q3 2024 was RMB 5.2 billion, up 57% YoY, with a net profit margin increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 5% [2] - The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 12.17% in 2024, 12.29% in 2025, and 12.30% in 2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has integrated with Taobao and Tmall platforms, allowing consumers to track JD Logistics shipments within the Taobao and Tmall apps, which is expected to boost business volume [2] - Overseas expansion continues with new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, enhancing global logistics capabilities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current closing price of HKD 14.92 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a strong performance in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with a projected net profit of over RMB 2 billion for Q4, corresponding to a profit margin of over 4% [1][2]. - The company is expected to enter a relatively stable profit margin phase in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 7.9 billion for 2024, reflecting a 30% increase from previous estimates [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's cost reduction strategies, including product upgrades, network optimization, and increased automation, which have significantly improved profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of RMB 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross profit margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 12% [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was RMB 2.6 billion, approximately double the previous year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.8%, the highest quarterly level since the company went public [1][3]. - The report projects total revenue for 2024 to reach RMB 180.83 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4% [2][9]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been increased to RMB 7.9 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4%, and for 2025, the adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 7.9 billion [3][9]. - Revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected at RMB 180.83 billion and 2025 at RMB 193.08 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 98.86 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 52.56% [4][5]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 6.80, indicating significant volatility and growth potential [4][5].

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, JD Logistics reported revenue of RMB 44,395,616 thousand, a 6.6% increase from RMB 41,662,646 thousand in the same period of 2023[2] - The non-IFRS net profit for the third quarter of 2024 reached RMB 2,572,583 thousand, reflecting a significant increase of 205.1% compared to RMB 843,078 thousand in the same quarter of 2023[2] - The gross profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 5,197,449 thousand, up 57.5% from RMB 3,300,429 thousand year-over-year[2] - The company achieved a non-IFRS EBITDA of RMB 5,726,417 thousand for the third quarter of 2024, compared to RMB 3,834,399 thousand in the same period of 2023, marking a 49.3% increase[2] - Revenue from JD Group reached RMB 12.79 billion, accounting for 28.8% of total revenue, while revenue from others was RMB 31.61 billion, making up 71.2%[10] - Operating costs increased by 2.2% to RMB 39.2 billion, with the percentage of operating costs to revenue decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 88.3%[11] - Gross profit rose from RMB 3.3 billion to RMB 5.2 billion, with gross margin increasing from 7.9% to 11.7%[13] - Net profit increased significantly from RMB 500 million to RMB 2.4 billion, primarily due to the increase in gross profit[17] - Free cash flow for the period was RMB 2.7 billion, up from RMB 2.1 billion in the same period last year[22] - Total cash resources amounted to RMB 47.1 billion as of September 30, 2024[21] Customer and Market Growth - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased from 54,212 to 59,286, contributing to a 5.4% rise in revenue from integrated supply chain customers to RMB 20,662,768 thousand[8] - Revenue from other customers increased by 7.6% to RMB 23,732,848 thousand, driven primarily by growth in express delivery services[8] Operational Developments - JD Logistics opened new warehouses in Malaysia and the United States in Q3 2024, enhancing its global logistics network and service capabilities[3] - The company’s warehousing network now includes over 1,600 self-operated warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party operated cloud warehouses, covering nearly all counties in China[4] Expenditures and Investments - The company’s total human resources expenditure reached RMB 87 billion for the twelve months ending September 30, 2024, reflecting its commitment to job creation and social contribution[4] - Research and development expenses remained stable at RMB 912.7 million compared to RMB 866.5 million in the previous year[15] - Sales and marketing expenses were stable at RMB 1.4 billion for both periods[14] - The company maintained stable rental costs at RMB 3.1 billion for both periods[11] Sustainability and Recognition - JD Logistics was recognized in the S&P Global 2024 Sustainability Yearbook as an industry best performer in corporate sustainability assessment[4] Corporate Governance - The board expresses gratitude to all employees, customers, and business partners for their continued support and trust[23] - The board includes executive director Hu Wei, non-executive director Liu Qiangdong, and independent non-executive directors Gu Yi, Zhao Xiande, Zhang Yang, and Ye Lin[24]

研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$14.86 目标价 HK$19.91 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$98.46bn / US$12.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$20.91mn 发行股票数目 6,626mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 45.1% 78.6% 56.4% 绝对值（美元） 45.5% 79.4% 57.4% 相对 MSCI China 28.0% 65.0% 41.6% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 166,625 176,002 194,821 215,303 Revenue (+/-) 21% 6% 11% 11% Net profit 2,761 6,788 11,5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].