Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][6] Core Views - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, with Q4 revenue growth returning to double digits at 10.4% [6][7] - The revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2025 due to improved efficiency and the implementation of new policies and promotional activities [6][7] - The company achieved a significant increase in adjusted net profit, reaching 7.917 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 186.8% [6][7] - The report highlights the company's focus on balancing revenue and profit growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.3% in 2024 [6][7] - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits of 8.469 billion yuan and 9.373 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a focus on revenue growth and investment [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 166,625 - 2024: 182,838 - 2025E: 207,654 - 2026E: 232,112 - 2027E: 255,738 [3][7] - Adjusted net profit (in million yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 2,761 - 2024: 7,917 - 2025E: 8,469 - 2026E: 9,373 - 2027E: 10,796 [3][7] - Earnings per share (in yuan) for the years 2023 to 2027: - 2023: 0.13 - 2024: 0.42 - 2025E: 1.19 - 2026E: 1.27 - 2027E: 1.41 [3][7] Market Data - Closing price as of March 7, 2025: 13.20 HKD - Market capitalization: 87.699 billion HKD [4][6] - 52-week high/low: 16.84/7.46 HKD [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report has adjusted the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at RMB 202,053 million, up from RMB 194,624 million, marking a 3.8% increase [5]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% year-on-year in 2025, supported by external business growth [6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 8,384 million, a 6.0% increase from the previous estimate of RMB 7,910 million [5]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 4.1% for 2025 [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 22,486 million, with a gross margin of 11.1% [5]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase, reflecting ongoing investments in personnel and automation [6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 20.78% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 102,714.38 million [4]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 16.34 and HKD 7.55, respectively, indicating significant price movement over the past year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 182.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase in net profit of 906% to 6.2 billion RMB [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the national subsidy policy and an increase in sales from JD Retail, with integrated supply chain customer revenue growing by 7.2% [1]. - The company has successfully reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a gross profit of 18.7 billion RMB, a 47% increase, and a gross margin improvement of 2.6 percentage points to 10.2% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52.1 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.73 billion RMB, up 66% [1]. - The operating costs for 2024 were 164.1 billion RMB, a 6.6% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth rate [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 7.1 billion RMB, 8.4 billion RMB, and 9.7 billion RMB respectively [3]. Operational Strategy - The company has upgraded its digital supply chain technology, integrating AI and big data to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [3]. - The acquisition of the remaining 36.43% stake in Kuayue Express aims to achieve full control, enhancing resource synergy and operational efficiency [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 193.3 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 5.7% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 7.1 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 13.9% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 18.00 to HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% [1][2]. Core Insights - The revenue is expected to achieve low double-digit growth in 2025, driven by prior investments that enhance revenue growth. Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize as the company continues to invest in fulfillment efficiency and market expansion [2][6]. - The report revises the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 upwards by 3.8% and 6.0%, respectively, based on a consistent price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2025 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, JD Logistics reported a revenue of RMB 52.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with adjusted net profit rising 23% to RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 4.3% [6][7]. - The company expects a revenue increase of 11% in 2025, supported by external business growth and prior investments enhancing market reach and fulfillment efficiency [6][9]. - The financial projections for 2025 estimate total revenue at RMB 202.1 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 22.5 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.4 billion, maintaining a net profit margin of 4.1% [15][16]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The updated forecasts for 2025 include: - Revenue: RMB 202,053 million (up from RMB 194,624 million, +3.8%) - Adjusted net profit: RMB 8,384 million (up from RMB 7,910 million, +6.0%) [5][15]. - The report anticipates continued growth in external customer contributions, with external revenue projected to reach RMB 107,657 million in 2025 [9][15]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 102.71 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 20.78% [4][11]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 7.55, indicating significant price movement within the year [4][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that JD Logistics reported significant revenue growth and profitability in its 2024 financial results, indicating a strong performance in the logistics sector [1] - In 2024, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [1] - The fourth quarter revenue reached 52.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] Group 2 - The adjusted net profit for the year 2024 was 7.9 billion yuan, which is a remarkable year-on-year increase of 186.8% [1] - Revenue from external customers amounted to 127.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.6% and accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue [1] - JD Logistics has served over 80,000 external integrated supply chain customers [1]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, JD Logistics reported total revenue of RMB 182.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%[7] - Gross profit for the same period reached RMB 18.70 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 47.4% compared to the previous year[7] - The company achieved a pre-tax profit of RMB 7.72 billion, marking a remarkable increase of 376.6% year-on-year[7] - Net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 7.09 billion, which is a staggering increase of 507.2% compared to the previous year[7] - The non-IFRS profit for the year was RMB 7.92 billion, up 186.8% year-on-year, with a non-IFRS profit margin of 4.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points[7] - In 2024, the company's total revenue reached RMB 182.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with external customer revenue at RMB 127.8 billion, up 9.6%, accounting for nearly 70% of total revenue[17] - The non-IFRS profit for 2024 was RMB 7.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 186.8%, with a profit margin of 4.3%, marking the highest levels since the company went public[18] - The annual profit for 2024 reached RMB 7,087,553 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 1,167,195 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 507%[121] - The total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 182.84 billion, an increase from RMB 166.62 billion in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 9.3%[119] Customer Growth and Market Expansion - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased to 80,703, representing an 8.0% year-on-year growth, with an average revenue per customer of RMB 400,000[12] - The integrated supply chain customer revenue reached RMB 87.4 billion in 2024, with external integrated supply chain customer revenue at RMB 32.3 billion, maintaining a steady growth trend[22] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased to 80,703, representing an 8.0% year-on-year growth, with an average revenue per external customer of RMB 400,000[22] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers grew from 74,714 in 2023 to 80,703 in 2024, reflecting increased demand for services[74] Operational Efficiency and Technology - JD Logistics has integrated with the Taobao Tmall platform, enhancing its service capabilities across major e-commerce platforms in China[12] - The company operates 9 dedicated cargo aircraft, improving service efficiency and market competitiveness, particularly for high-value perishable goods[13] - The company continues to focus on technology innovation and investment, enhancing operational automation, digitalization, and intelligent decision-making to optimize cost and efficiency[21] - The logistics technology initiative includes the upgrade of the "JD Logistics Super Brain," integrating AI, big data, and operations research to enhance supply chain efficiency[33] - The "Smart Wolf" solution was launched in 2024, featuring high-density storage and full-process automation, significantly improving picking and storage efficiency[36] Infrastructure and Logistics Network - The company has established over 100 bonded, direct mail, and overseas warehouses, covering 19 countries and regions, with a total management area exceeding 1 million square meters[21] - The company expanded its overseas warehouse in Malaysia, doubling its area, and opened a new overseas warehouse in Japan, improving regional coverage capabilities[26] - The logistics network includes warehousing, transportation, last-mile delivery, and cold chain networks, forming a robust foundation for supply chain solutions[38] - The company operates a nationwide warehousing network with over 1,600 owned warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party cloud warehouses, totaling over 32 million square meters of managed area as of December 31, 2024[39] - The cold chain network includes approximately 60 temperature-controlled warehouses for fresh and frozen foods, and over 40 specialized warehouses for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with a total area of around 400,000 square meters as of December 31, 2024[45] Financial Stability and Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for 2024 was RMB 20,790,727,000, an increase from RMB 16,352,016,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 27%[96] - The company's free cash flow for 2024 was RMB 8,100,000,000, compared to RMB 2,800,000,000 in 2023, marking a growth of about 189%[97] - As of December 31, 2024, the total cash resources of the company amounted to RMB 47.8 billion[95] - The company's total liabilities decreased from RMB 15,099,215,000 in 2023 to RMB 840,448,000 in 2024, indicating improved financial stability[96] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 13.1%[103] Employee and Operational Costs - The total human resources expenditure, including both employees and external personnel, reached RMB 89.2 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[51] - Employee compensation and benefits expenses for 2024 totaled RMB 68.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% from RMB 62.2 billion in 2023[111] - Operating costs rose by 9.9% from RMB 42,847,951 thousand in Q4 2023 to RMB 47,080,378 thousand in Q4 2024, but the percentage of operating costs to revenue decreased from 90.8% to 90.4%[61] Corporate Governance and Sustainability - JD Logistics has been recognized in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development[13] - The company is committed to green supply chain practices, focusing on innovations in warehousing, transportation, and packaging to reduce logistics costs and promote high-quality industrial development[51] - The company has established an audit committee to monitor risk management policies and ensure effective internal control systems[151] - The company has complied with all applicable corporate governance codes as of December 31, 2024[148] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board of directors has not recommended a final dividend for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[8] - The company did not declare any dividends for the year ended December 31, 2024, consistent with 2023[140]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [2] Core Insights - JD Logistics has turned profitable in 2023 with an adjusted net profit of 2.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 218.8%, and achieved a record high adjusted profit margin of 5.8% in Q3 2024 [6][31] - The integrated supply chain logistics industry is expected to continue consolidating, with JD Logistics poised to increase its order volume through integration with the Taotian platform [6][8] - The company has established a highly coordinated network comprising six major components: warehousing, comprehensive transportation, last-mile delivery, large items, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics [17][41] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - JD Logistics was established in 2007 as an internal logistics department of JD Group and began serving external customers in 2017, becoming a leader in integrated supply chain services [17][18] - The company has significantly expanded its external customer base, with external revenue exceeding 50% since 2021 [19][25] 2. Market Dynamics - The integrated supply chain logistics market in China reached 2,026 billion RMB in 2020 and is projected to grow to 3,190 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% [6] - JD Logistics ranks as the fifth largest integrated logistics service provider globally and second in China, capturing approximately 1.7% of the third-party logistics spending in 2023 [6] 3. Business Growth and Efficiency - The company has seen significant growth in its business volume, with a notable increase in warehouse efficiency and revenue per square meter from 3,494 RMB in 2020 to 5,207 RMB in 2023 [6][41] - The integration of technology, including cloud computing and AI, has enhanced operational efficiency and positioned JD Logistics as a technology-driven logistics service provider [6][41] 4. Financial Projections - JD Logistics is expected to achieve net profits of 6.53 billion RMB, 7.73 billion RMB, and 8.95 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.9, 11.8, and 10.2 [8][9]

Event Overview - JD.com launched the "I Send New Year Goods to My Hometown" campaign on January 6, inviting users nationwide to send New Year goods to their hometowns and loved ones [1] - The campaign is supported by over 100 major brands and aims to deliver New Year goods to rural areas [1] - JD Logistics has prepared sufficient storage and transportation resources to ensure timely and safe delivery of goods [1] Key Initiatives - JD Group founder and chairman Richard Liu personally placed an order for New Year goods for 1,500 households in Guangming Village, Suqian, Jiangsu Province [1] - The goods include 34 types of products such as food, clothing, home appliances, and mobile phones, totaling over 50,000 items [1] - The goods are stored at JD Logistics' Suqian "Asia No 1" smart logistics park, the closest facility to the village [1] - Delivery of goods to Guangming Village began on January 8 and lasted for three days, with over 30 truck trips planned [1] Logistics Operations - JD Logistics announced its 13th consecutive year of "delivery during Spring Festival" service [3] - The company will provide uninterrupted delivery services across the country, including remote areas like Tibet, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Hainan, even on the first day of the Lunar New Year [3] - To handle the peak logistics demand during the New Year shopping season, JD Logistics has integrated various infrastructure and transportation resources, leveraging digital technologies to enhance its supply chain logistics services [5] Consumer Participation - Consumers can participate in the "I Send New Year Goods to My Hometown" campaign through the JD app from January 6 to February 12 [4] - Purchases of designated products will be accompanied by JD Logistics' delivery of gifts and heartfelt messages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.00, implying a potential upside of 42.0% [1][4] Core Views - JD Logistics' Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 8.6% YoY to RMB 51.25 billion, driven by increased market share capture and prior investments in shipping and air routes [2][7] - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 is forecasted to increase by 10% YoY to RMB 2.0 billion, surpassing market expectations of RMB 1.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.9% [7] - Full-year 2024 revenue is projected to grow by 9% YoY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2%, in line with company guidance of 3-4% [2][7] - The company's prior investments are expected to continue driving revenue growth in 2025, with further efficiency improvements and the ongoing integration of Taobao contributing to incremental gains [2] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profitability - 2024E revenue is revised upward by 0.6% to RMB 181.99 billion, with 2025E and 2026E revenues forecasted at RMB 194.62 billion and RMB 208.22 billion, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised downward by 3.1% to RMB 7.67 billion, with 2025E and 2026E adjusted net profits projected at RMB 7.91 billion and RMB 8.48 billion, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 10.6%, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.2% for 2024E and 4.1% for both 2025E and 2026E [3][7] Segment Performance - External customer revenue is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2024E to RMB 95.28 billion, driven by strong performance in other external customer segments [3] - External integrated supply chain revenue is forecasted to decline by 1.1% in 2024E to RMB 31.99 billion, reflecting a slight slowdown in this segment [3] Key Financial Metrics - Non-GAAP adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.212, increasing to RMB 1.241 in 2025E and RMB 1.320 in 2026E [17] - ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 29.8% in 2024E, 28.1% in 2025E, and 25.6% in 2026E, reflecting strong profitability and operational efficiency [18] Industry and Peer Comparison - JD Logistics is part of the logistics sector, with peers including SF Express (9699 HK) and Dada Group (DADA US), both of which also hold Buy ratings [12] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from continued e-commerce growth and supply chain optimization, with JD Logistics well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target PE multiple of 13x for 2024, indicating a 26% upside potential [157][158] Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned from an enterprise logistics provider to a logistics enterprise, leveraging its unique business model of integrating commerce and logistics [157] - The company's external business expansion has achieved remarkable results, with external customer revenue maintaining high growth trends [1] - The company's one-stop supply chain services are expected to have broad prospects in the future, especially in the non-integrated retail brand owner warehousing and logistics market [7] External Revenue Growth - The company's external revenue has been growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 70%-80% from 2019 to 2021, and maintaining high growth thereafter [1] - The proportion of external revenue has been continuously increasing, indicating significant success in external customer expansion [1] Cost Structure and Efficiency - The company's cost-to-revenue ratio has been declining overall since 2023, with a quarterly cost-to-revenue ratio of 88.3% in Q3 2023, down 3.9pct year-on-year [3] - The company's warehouse efficiency and capacity utilization have improved, driving significant revenue growth [16] Industry and Market Analysis - The retail logistics market is vast, with the total retail sales of consumer goods expected to maintain a 5% CAGR from 2024 to 2030 [8] - The company has proposed industry-specific solutions based on different industries, optimizing management through digital tools [7] Competitive Advantages - The company's high-quality service has led to strong brand recognition, with 90% of JD Group's online retail orders achieving same-day or next-day delivery [22] - The company's unique competitive barriers come from three aspects: strong infrastructure layout, advanced data and technology accumulation, and a unique ecosystem [30] Future Prospects - The company's new businesses, including cold chain, cross-border, express, and large-item logistics, are in the initial stages but have clear layouts [76] - The company's adjusted net profit is expected to reach 7.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of over 4%, potentially reaching 5%-6% in the long term [168]