智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，7月29日，Central Huijin Investment Ltd.减持中国船舶租 赁(03877)403.2万股，每股作价2.2537港元，总金额约为908.69184万港元。减持后最新持股数目为3.703 亿股，最新持股比例为5.97%。 本交易涉及其他关联方：China Re Asset Management(Hong Kong) Company Limited；中国再保险（集 团）股份有限公司。 ...

机构：国联民生证券 研究员：刘雨辰/陈昌涛 行业：船舶需求有较强支撑，租赁渗透率有望提升 从行业来看，1）全球经济稳步增长带动贸易量增长，从而进一步推动对新增运力的需求提升；2）当前 IMO 环保规定逐步趋严，存量船舶大多无法满足碳排放相关要求；3）同时全球船队船龄较高，当前全 球船队船龄已达17.4 年，而船舶经济使用年限通常只有20 年左右，故后续几年将进入老旧船舶更新替 换的高峰期。多方因素作用下船舶需求有较强支撑，而绿色船舶造价高、全球主要经济体处于降息周期 叠加租赁商方案更加灵活，因此预计后续船舶租赁渗透率有望进一步提升。 公司为全球领先的船厂系租赁公司 中国船舶租赁第一大股东为中国船舶集团，持股比例74.38%。而中国船舶集团为全球最大的造船集 团，2024 年中国船舶集团交付量为1638 万载重吨，占全球份额18.40%。中国船舶租赁凭借股东深厚的 产业背景与产业资源精准识别产业周期，从而帮助公司实现逆周期投资，以较低成本获取船舶资产，放 大公司利润空间。 固定+弹性收益模式增强公司成长性 公司凭借高专业度根据周期情况将部分船舶资产投入即期或短期市场运营，由此保证公司能够更好享受 到周期上行带来 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading global ship leasing firm with five core advantages: strong backing from China Shipbuilding Group, an excellent business model combining fixed and flexible income, early green transformation with 89% of its fleet being energy-efficient vessels, good qualifications leading to low financing costs (3.56% in 2024), and a high dividend yield exceeding 7% [4][14]. Industry Overview - The ship leasing industry is expected to see strong demand supported by several factors: steady global economic growth driving trade volume, increasingly stringent environmental regulations necessitating the replacement of older vessels, and a high average age of the global fleet at 17.4 years, indicating a peak period for replacing aging ships [11][23][40]. - The penetration rate of ship leasing is anticipated to increase due to the advantages of leasing, such as lower capital requirements and flexible payment options, with the current leasing penetration for container ships at 55.37% by number and 47.69% by TEU [52][57]. Company Analysis - The company benefits from a robust industry background and resources, allowing it to identify and capitalize on industry cycles effectively [11][14]. - Its business model enhances growth potential through a mix of fixed and flexible income, allowing the company to better capture the benefits of market upturns [12][14]. - The fleet's average age is only 4.03 years, significantly younger than the global average, which reduces environmental compliance pressures [12][14]. - The company maintains a low financing cost of 3.56% in 2024, with expectations for further improvement due to global interest rate trends [12][14]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 43.81, 46.22, and 49.68 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -1.35%, +5.51%, and +7.47% [16]. - Net profits for the same period are expected to be 22.79, 24.41, and 26.61 billion HKD, with growth rates of +8.22%, +7.10%, and +9.03% [16].

Fleet and Operations - As of the end of 2024, the fleet size reached 138 vessels, with 122 in operation and 16 under construction[9] - The average age of operational vessels was 4.03 years, indicating a relatively young fleet[62] - The company expanded its fleet by investing in eight 55,000-ton chemical tankers through a joint venture established in 2018[22] - The company signed new shipbuilding orders for 9 vessels with a contract value of USD 849 million, with 100% being mid-to-high-end ship types[47] - The company signed a financing lease project for two 174,000 cubic meter floating LNG storage and regasification units (LNG-FSRU) in 2017, marking a first in the domestic market[22] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 4.034 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%[46] - The net profit for 2024 was HKD 2.155 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%[46] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 53.4% for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to 52.7% in 2023[39] - The average return on assets (ROA) increased to 4.8% in 2024 from 4.5% in 2023[39] - The company reported total assets of HKD 43,920,995,000 as of December 31, 2023[33] Debt and Financing - The company achieved a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.5% in 2024, down from 71.6% in 2023, indicating improved financial stability[39] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities was controlled at 3.5%, a decrease of 18 basis points year-on-year[63] - The company secured a 10-year ship mortgage loan totaling USD 596 million in collaboration with Standard Chartered Bank in 2021[22] - The company issued a total of RMB 800 million in "Panda Bonds," marking a historical low in financing costs and coupon rates for domestic bonds[22] - By the end of 2024, the proportion of RMB loans increased from 16.8% to 30.5%, while HKD loans rose from 5.1% to 7.0%, effectively diversifying financing currencies and lowering costs[64] Risk Management - The company aims to strengthen risk management and improve operational efficiency while ensuring transparency and shareholder returns[51] - The group has established a comprehensive risk management system to enhance its risk response capabilities and ensure stable performance amid various risks, including credit, market, and liquidity risks[130] - The group has adopted a prudent risk appetite strategy, focusing on industries with mature business models and high asset quality, while preferring large enterprises and industry leaders as clients[130] - The group plans to continue strengthening its comprehensive risk management system in 2024, optimizing its risk management strategies across major risk categories and business segments[131] Environmental and Social Governance - The company focuses on "green finance" and aims for carbon neutrality, aligning with national "dual carbon" goals[11] - The company received an ESG rating of A from Wind for 2024 and scored 45 points from S&P CSA, reflecting significant improvements in ESG governance[66] - The company aims to enhance its focus on clean energy and smart vessel market expansion, targeting collaborations with major cargo owners and energy companies[72] - The group aims to deepen its green low-carbon business model transformation while focusing on the ship and marine equipment leasing sector[109] Shareholder and Employee Information - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.104 per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to HKD 0.134 per share[47] - The major shareholder, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holds 4,602,046,234 shares, representing 74.38% of the company's equity[183] - The group has granted a total of 172,250,000 stock options under the stock option plan, which is 10% of the total shares issued as of the approval date[189] - Approximately 98% of the group's employees hold a bachelor's degree or higher as of December 31, 2024[179] Market Outlook - Global shipping trade volume is expected to grow by 1.4% and turnover by 0.9% in 2025, indicating potential opportunities in emerging market routes[68] - The global fleet capacity is projected to increase by 3.3% in 2025, driven by ongoing bulk order deliveries[68] - The capacity of product oil tankers is expected to grow by 5.6%, significantly outpacing the trade growth rate of 1.7%[69] - LNG vessel capacity is anticipated to rise by 9.9%, while trade volume is expected to grow by only 4.1%, indicating pressure on freight rates[69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with total revenue for 2024 reaching HKD 4.441 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 2.106 billion, up 11% year-on-year [6] - The fleet structure is continuously optimized, with a total fleet size of 138 vessels as of the end of 2024, and an average age of 4.03 years. The company is focusing on high-value and younger vessels, enhancing its market competitiveness [6] - Cost control measures have been strengthened, with the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities reduced to 3.5%, down 18 basis points year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the industry average [6] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend per share of HKD 0.134 for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of 39%. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 9% [6] - The company has been re-included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to enhance liquidity and accelerate value recovery [6] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards, with net profits projected at HKD 2.338 billion, HKD 2.550 billion, and HKD 2.790 billion respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million HKD) for the years 2023 to 2027 is projected as follows: 3,745 (2023), 4,441 (2024), 4,332 (2025E), 4,526 (2026E), and 4,661 (2027E) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) is forecasted as: 1,902 (2023), 2,106 (2024), 2,338 (2025E), 2,550 (2026E), and 2,790 (2027E) [2][7] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to be: 0.31 (2023), 0.34 (2024), 0.35 (2025E), 0.38 (2026E), and 0.42 (2027E) [2][7] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable around 15% for the forecast period [6]

Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

Summary of the Conference Call for China Ship Leasing Company Overview - The company discussed is China Ship Leasing, which operates in the ship leasing industry and has shown strong financial performance in 2024 with a total of 138 vessels, of which 122 are operational and 16 are under construction [3][4]. Key Financial and Operational Highlights - The company has increased its operational fleet to 128 vessels and its total asset pool to 144 vessels, with an average vessel age of 4.303 years and a remaining lease term of 7.26 years, ensuring stable future revenues [3][4]. - The proportion of dual-fuel vessels is 19.8%, significantly higher than the global average, which helps attract high-quality clients [3]. - The vessel type distribution includes gas carriers (16%), container ships (16%), liquid cargo ships (20%), bulk carriers (24%), and special purpose vessels (20%), providing a balanced approach to market fluctuations [3][4]. Business Strategy and Market Position - Short-term leasing accounts for approximately 20% of the business, contributing 38.6% of profits, reflecting a dual strategy of long-term leasing and investment operations [3][4]. - The company plans to increase domestic RMB assets to hedge against RMB liabilities and reduce exchange rate risks [3]. - The impact of the US 301 tariff hearings, expected to be announced on April 17, 2025, is limited as the company’s operational routes do not currently involve the US [5]. Regulatory and Market Environment - The US tariff policy aims to increase government revenue and attract manufacturing back to the US, with potential countermeasures from China, such as interest rate cuts [7][8]. - The global shipping market is highly concentrated, with major players like Maersk and CMA CGM dominating, making it difficult for them to avoid using Chinese-made vessels despite tariffs [5]. Future Business Development - The company has established a department to expand into non-vessel marine engineering, focusing on domestic markets and projects like road transportation and AIADD emergency power systems [11]. - There is a strategic push for new vessel types, including LNG ships, and participation in polar routes due to climate change, which has made these routes more feasible [12]. Financial Management and Risk Mitigation - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and has reached an agreement with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to position itself as a dividend stock [13]. - To manage shipping cycle fluctuations, the company is diversifying its asset allocation, locking in 20% of short-term leases as long-term leases, and optimizing its capital structure [14]. - The company has a risk rating standard that exceeds external ratings, with no large-scale impairment provisions expected in the near future [15]. Financing and Cost Outlook - The company anticipates a 20 basis point reduction in overall financing costs in 2025, benefiting from a declining interest rate environment [16]. - Global trade dynamics are expected to create new opportunities for the shipping industry, with a predicted 1% growth in global trade volume in 2025 [17]. Conclusion - China Ship Leasing is well-positioned in the ship leasing market with a diversified fleet, strategic growth plans, and proactive risk management strategies, making it a potential investment opportunity in the shipping sector.

Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of HKD 4,034.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 11.3% compared to HKD 3,626.1 million in 2023[3]. - Net profit for the year was HKD 2,155.1 million, up 12.7% from HKD 1,911.7 million in the previous year[3]. - Basic earnings per share increased to HKD 0.342, a rise of 10.3% from HKD 0.310 in 2023[3]. - The group's total revenue increased from HKD 3,626.1 million in 2023 to HKD 4,034.4 million in 2024, representing an 11.3% growth[31]. - Revenue from integrated shipping services rose by 22.8% from HKD 1,848.3 million in 2023 to HKD 2,269.5 million in 2024, primarily due to the addition of two LNG green energy vessels and improved market conditions[32]. - Financial services revenue slightly decreased by 0.7% from HKD 1,777.9 million in 2023 to HKD 1,764.9 million in 2024, attributed to a 10.1% decline in loan services revenue[33]. - The total comprehensive income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 2,189,145,000, an increase of 20.3% compared to HKD 1,819,918,000 in 2023[76]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased by 2.7% to HKD 43,921.0 million, down from HKD 45,143.6 million in 2023[4]. - Total liabilities decreased by 8.3% to HKD 29,623.0 million, compared to HKD 32,313.6 million in the previous year[4]. - The company's total equity increased by 11.4% to HKD 14,298.0 million, up from HKD 12,829.9 million in 2023[4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the total assets of the group amounted to HKD 43,921.0 million, a decrease of HKD 1,222.6 million compared to the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in receivables from loans and leases[43]. - The total liabilities of the group were HKD 29,623.0 million, down HKD 2,690.7 million from the previous year, mainly due to the repayment of high-interest USD bank loans[43]. - The equity at year-end increased to HKD 14,298.0 million, an increase of HKD 1,468.1 million, with the debt-to-equity ratio improving from 71.6% to 67.5%[43]. Cash Flow and Financing - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 6,768.3 million, primarily due to completed financing lease project payments and operating profits[58]. - The net cash outflow from investing activities was approximately HKD 1,577.4 million, mainly for payments related to operating lease shipbuilding and self-investment projects[59]. - The net cash outflow from financing activities was about HKD 4,331.7 million, primarily for the repayment of certain bank loans[59]. - The average cost of interest-bearing debt was controlled at 3.5% in 2024, a decrease of 18 basis points year-on-year, and 62 basis points lower than the P50 percentile of peers[16]. - The group issued a total of HKD 8.52 billion in Panda bonds in September 2024, achieving a new low in financing costs and interest rates for domestic bonds[53]. - The funds raised from the Panda bond issuance will primarily support domestic equipment upgrades and debt repayment[54]. Operational Highlights - The group achieved a net profit of HKD 1.05 billion from 11 jointly controlled vessels and HKD 490 million from 22 equity joint venture vessels in 2024, with a total net profit of HKD 49 million from its self-operated fleet[13]. - The group signed new shipbuilding orders for 9 vessels with a contract value of USD 849 million in 2024, with 100% of the orders being mid-to-high-end vessel types[14]. - As of December 31, 2024, the fleet size was 138 vessels, with an average age of 4.03 years for operating vessels and an average remaining lease term of 7.26 years for long-term lease projects[15]. - The average return on assets (ROA) improved to 4.8%, up from 4.5% in the previous year[5]. - The average return on equity (ROE) remained stable at 15.7% compared to the previous year[5]. Risk Management and Strategy - The company is adapting to new challenges in the shipping market, focusing on business expansion and risk management for sustainable development[11]. - The company aims to enhance its focus on clean energy sectors and strengthen market development for green and smart vessels[27]. - The company plans to accelerate domestic business expansion and actively pursue overseas projects to achieve significant business growth[27]. - The company will implement a comprehensive risk management system to enhance project risk assessment and monitoring[28]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk projects to ensure sustainable development[25]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code for the year ending December 31, 2024, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[110]. - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, reviewed the financial information and the annual performance for the year ending December 31, 2024[116]. - The financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, have been reviewed by the audit committee and agreed upon with the external auditor[116]. - The board believes that having the same person serve as both Chairman and CEO enhances the execution of the group's business strategy and operational efficiency[111].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its stable performance and attractive dividend yield [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the ship leasing industry, characterized by a young fleet and a strong focus on green energy initiatives. The report highlights the potential for continued profit growth driven by favorable market conditions and a strategic focus on green transformation [6][9]. - The company has a robust financial outlook, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 21.56 billion, 23.83 billion, and 26.48 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.39%, 10.52%, and 11.11% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the first shipyard-affiliated leasing company in Greater China, specializing in ship leasing with a strong understanding of the industry. It employs a cross-cycle strategy of "counter-cyclical investment and pro-cyclical operation" to mitigate market fluctuations [6][16]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3,626.15 million HKD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 13.03%. The net profit for the same year was 1,901.61 million HKD, reflecting a growth of 12.86% [5][34]. - The company has maintained a high gross profit margin of 91.43% and a net profit margin of 52.72% in 2023, indicating strong operational efficiency [34]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a diversified and modern fleet, with 125 operational vessels and 23 under construction as of mid-2024. The fleet's average age is approximately 3.73 years, positioning the company favorably in the market [28][29]. - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for financing due to the green transition in the shipping industry, driven by regulatory pressures and the need for compliance with environmental standards [45][58]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment, with projected earnings per share increasing from 0.35 HKD in 2024 to 0.43 HKD in 2026. The price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 4.85 in 2024 to 3.95 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5][7]. Green Transformation - The report discusses the urgency of green transformation in the shipping industry, with significant regulatory pressures leading to the retirement of older vessels. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its focus on modern, energy-efficient ships [49][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Ship Leasing [4] Core Views - The company reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue to HKD 1.966 billion and a 22% increase in net profit to HKD 1.327 billion for the first half of 2024, meeting expectations [4] - The fleet structure has been optimized, with a total fleet size of 148 vessels and an average age of 3.73 years, enhancing asset value amid a shipbuilding boom [4] - The company has effectively managed funding costs, reducing the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities to 3.5% in the first half of 2024, down from 3.7% in 2023 [4] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 8.1% for 2024 [4] - The re-inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance liquidity and accelerate value recovery [4] - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2025 have been revised downwards, with new projections for 2026 introduced [4] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 3.745 billion in 2023 to HKD 3.928 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 5% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 1.902 billion in 2023 to HKD 2.096 billion in 2024, reflecting a 10% growth rate [7] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is HKD 0.27, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 [7]