Core Viewpoint - The construction agency industry is experiencing a rational return to competition, presenting incremental opportunities despite a decline in new contract signing scale for 2024. The market structure is stabilizing, with leading companies expanding their market share and focusing on risk management and profitability [1] Industry Summary - The construction agency sector is facing intensified competition, a slowdown in land acquisition and construction commencement, and adjustments in storage plans, leading to a decrease in new contract signing scale for 2024. However, by the first half of 2025, no new large-scale entrants are expected, which will stabilize the industry landscape [1] - Urban renewal, the expansion of the "white list," and the promotion of "good housing" policies are expected to drive structural incremental opportunities in the industry. Although single-party construction fees are currently declining, leading companies maintain a market share exceeding 20%, with gross and net profit margins around 40% and 20%, respectively [1] Company Summary - The company is currently experiencing a phase of profit pressure due to the lagging effects of the real estate downturn. However, as competition returns to focus on product quality and operational efficiency, the company is expected to leverage its comprehensive competitive advantages to drive steady profit recovery [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a total construction area of 126.5 million square meters in hand, with new construction fees and building areas growing at double-digit rates year-on-year [1] - The company has improved cash reserves and operating cash flow, with increasing per capita output value and a high dividend payout ratio. It plans to implement a mid-term dividend for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream commercial management and property companies [1] Investment Outlook - The company's earnings may face temporary pressure in 2025, leading to a slight downward adjustment of the 2025 EPS forecast to 0.28 yuan (previously 0.32 yuan). However, as a leading construction agency, the company possesses comprehensive competitive advantages and is expected to gradually emerge from this earnings trough. The 2026 EPS forecast remains at 0.31 yuan, while the 2027 EPS forecast is raised to 0.34 yuan (previously 0.31 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 8.3x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating continued dividend potential under a light asset model [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" as the new paradigm for development [6][8][9] - The core competitiveness of the construction agency model has shifted from simple "price competition" to deeper "value creation" [7][8] - The market environment is opening new development windows for the construction agency industry, with a focus on core cities and institutionalized clients [8][9] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of the construction agency model in China is currently at 12.5%, indicating substantial growth potential compared to 20%-30% in mature markets like Europe and the U.S. [13] - Urban renewal and stock transformation are emerging as new growth areas within the industry [13] - The industry is witnessing a "Matthew effect," where leading firms consolidate while weaker ones exit the market [6][8] Client Structure - The client structure is becoming more diversified and balanced, with state-owned platforms playing a stabilizing role and private enterprises increasing their participation [5][8] - In the first half of the year, the proportion of private clients for Greentown Management reached 37%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [5][8] Policy Support - A clear policy framework is being established to guide the construction agency industry, focusing on urban village renovations, "guaranteed delivery" of housing, and the construction of "good houses" [9][10] - Recent policies emphasize high-quality development in real estate as a means to improve and guarantee livelihoods [9][10] Company Performance - Greentown Management reported a new construction area of approximately 1,989 million square meters in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [11] - The new construction fees reached approximately 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, marking the highest level in three years [11] Future Outlook - The future winners in the industry will be those companies that excel in contract fulfillment, product development, cost control, operational efficiency, service extension, and risk management [13] - Greentown Management aims to be a standard bearer, innovator, and active contributor to the industry's ecosystem, focusing on high-quality development and collaboration [14][15][16]

Core Insights - The leading construction companies have shown a strong willingness to expand, with the top 20 companies signing new contracts for a total area of 15,771 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - The number of awarded construction projects has steadily increased, particularly in the third quarter, which saw a record high in project awards [2][3] Group 1: Project Awards - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of awarded construction projects reached approximately 432, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has decreased by 10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The third quarter alone saw 172 awarded projects, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 37% and 17%, respectively [3] - Leading companies like Greentown Management have significantly outperformed others in terms of awarded projects, with nearly 20 projects in the third quarter [3] Group 2: Client Composition - Government and state-owned enterprises remain the primary clients for construction projects, including urban investment land and urban renewal projects [7] - There was a slight decrease in the proportion of projects commissioned by government and state-owned enterprises in the third quarter, dropping to 70%, a decline of nearly 20 percentage points compared to the average for the first eight months [7] Group 3: Regional Distribution - The distribution of awarded projects in the third quarter remained consistent with the first half of the year, with third and fourth-tier cities accounting for about 50% of the projects, while the Yangtze River Delta's share has been declining [9] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the awarded project distribution was 14% in first-tier cities, 35% in second-tier cities, and 51% in third and fourth-tier cities, indicating a trend where lower-tier cities dominate [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].

Core Insights - The event held by Greentown at Haikou marks a significant opportunity as the island approaches its customs closure, indicating a pivotal moment for investment in Hainan [1][3][15] - The concept of "customs closure" serves as a clear value demarcation, with the pre-closure period representing a "value lowland" for strategic asset allocation [3][15] - The event emphasizes the dual value proposition of the project, combining asset value and lifestyle aesthetics, appealing to elite investors [5][10][13] Asset Value Analysis - The event provided a deep analysis of the asset value of Fengming Guantang, highlighting its unique position as a scarce asset in the context of Hainan's customs closure [8][10] - Insights were shared on how the Hainan Free Trade Port policy benefits can translate into sustainable asset appreciation, particularly in the context of the "dual circulation" economic framework [8][10] - The scarcity of land resources in the Haikou area is underscored as a significant factor in establishing a robust value moat for Fengming Guantang [8][11] Lifestyle Aesthetics - The choice of the Bulgari Hotel in Beijing for the event symbolizes the alignment of Greentown's luxury living philosophy with the brand spirit of Bulgari, emphasizing a shared commitment to elegance and craftsmanship [11] - The collaboration between Greentown and Bulgari reflects a deep understanding of contemporary elite lifestyles, aiming to present Fengming Guantang as a "livable jewel" [11][15] Market Positioning - The event serves as a strong market signal, indicating a transition of Hainan's value from "tourism resources" to "strategic assets" [15] - The gathering of elite investors at the event not only provided insights into the project but also fostered a sense of community among those who recognize the investment potential in Hainan [13][15] - The opening of the Fengming Guantang aesthetic demonstration area in December is anticipated to further solidify its market position as a premium investment opportunity [15]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 1.697 million shares on November 17, 2025, marking a decrease of 0.61% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net reduction of 3.592 million shares, with southbound funds reducing their holdings for five consecutive days [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on 13 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 3.707 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 17, 2025, southbound funds hold 27.8 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, which represents 13.88% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Greentown Management Holdings primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services including project management and consulting [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 353,000 shares on November 14 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been five days of net reductions, totaling 2.67 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net reductions, amounting to 1.30 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, representing 13.97% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [4]. Core Insights - Key monitored enterprises acquired 32 plots of land with a total transaction amount of 375.3 billion yuan [5][6]. - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 45 billion yuan [5][6]. Land Reserves - Recent land acquisition details include: - Yuexiu Property acquired a residential land in Guangzhou for 1.194 billion yuan, with a premium of 8.2% [8]. - In Changsha, 3 residential plots were sold for a total of 1.89 billion yuan, with a maximum premium of 18% [9]. - China Green Development secured land in Sanya for 1.36 billion yuan at the base price [10]. - China Resources Land won a plot in Dongguan for 1.91 billion yuan, with a saleable floor price of 21,606 yuan/m² [11]. Investment Financing - Recent financing activities include: - Tiandi Source issued 200 million yuan in medium-term notes with an interest rate of 3.60% [12][14]. - Fuzhou Urban Investment Group successfully issued 580 million yuan in short-term financing bonds [15]. - China Communications Construction Company received approval for a 300 million yuan corporate bond [16]. - Hangzhou Anju Group's 2 billion yuan corporate bond was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [17]. Corporate Dynamics - China State Construction Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Chongqing government [18]. - Greentown Management and Chongqing Green Development signed a cooperation development agreement to enhance high-quality real estate projects [19].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 487,000 shares on November 12, 2025, marking a trend of net reductions over the past trading days [1] - Over the last five trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for four days, with a total net reduction of 2,229,000 shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there were ten days of net increases in holdings, totaling 639,000 shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, accounting for 14.01% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other project management services [2] - Greentown Management Holdings operates mainly in the domestic market of China [2]

Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure with high base growth rates leading to a decline in market performance [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current challenges [2] Market Performance - In October 2025, the transaction volume of commodity residential properties in 46 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 39.1% [11][12] - The cumulative transaction volume from January to October 2025 shows a 10.9% year-on-year decrease [11] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with transaction volumes in 11 cities down by 21.3% year-on-year [35] Market Sentiment - The second-hand housing prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in October 2025, marking a total decline of 13.0% since the beginning of the year [5][35] - Inventory levels in the new housing market showed a slight decrease, with a 2.1% reduction in short-term inventory in 10 key cities [5] Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, shifting from suppression to encouragement of reasonable demand [5][29] - The government is gradually lifting restrictive measures, which may positively impact market sentiment in the long term [5] Land Market Dynamics - In October 2025, the land transfer revenue in 600 cities dropped by 27.8% year-on-year, indicating a cooling land market [5] - The average land premium rate fell to 3.3%, the lowest since 2025, reflecting cautious bidding behavior among developers [5] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales amount of 276.6 billion yuan in October 2025, a 41% year-on-year decline [29] - State-owned enterprises showed a year-on-year sales decline of 37%, while private enterprises faced a more severe drop of 52% [30] Investment Outlook - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 2.37% in October 2025, underperforming the broader market by 2.4 percentage points [5] - The report suggests holding quality real estate development companies, as the market is expected to stabilize and recover gradually [5]