财通证券（601108）发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予绿城管理控股(09979)"买入"评级，主要考虑到公司 持续深耕代建领域，已形成规模优势与品牌效应，新拓代建面积和销售额多年稳居行业榜首，在手订单 充裕，项目启动逐步提效。 财通证券主要观点如下： 深耕代建领域十余载，国内代建第一股 公司是国内房地产轻资产开发模式的先行者与引领者，核心业务模式包括三大代建主业(政府代建、商 业代建、资方代建)及三大配套服务(金融服务、产城服务、产业链服务)，2020年公司在港交所主板上 市，成为国内代建第一股。 公司自上市以来，持续重视股东回报，2022-2023年分红比例均超100%。1H2025公司首次进行中期分 红，派息态度积极。此外，公司在中期业绩发布后持续回购，已累计回购1000万股，回购总额2791万 元，截至10月28日，回购股份已完成注销。 风险提示 房地产市场下行超预期、代建行业竞争加剧、业主方违约风险。 新拓代建规模逆市增长，稳居行业首位 1H2025公司新拓代建项目总建筑面积同比增长13.9%至1989万平方米，位居行业首位。公司致力于有质 量的规模扩张，1H2025公司新拓代建项目代建费预计约50亿元， ...

新拓代建规模逆市增长，稳居行业首位 1H2025公司新拓代建项目总建筑面积同比增长13.9%至1989万平方米，位居行业首位。公司致力于有质 量的规模扩张，1H2025公司新拓代建项目代建费预计约50亿元，同比增长19.1%，代建费增速高于新拓 面积增速。 重视股东回报，首次中期派息 公司自上市以来，持续重视股东回报，2022-2023年分红比例均超100%。1H2025公司首次进行中期分 红，派息态度积极。此外，公司在中期业绩发布后持续回购，已累计回购1000万股，回购总额2791万 元，截至10月28日，回购股份已完成注销。 智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予绿城管理控股(09979)"买入"评级，主要考虑 到公司持续深耕代建领域，已形成规模优势与品牌效应，新拓代建面积和销售额多年稳居行业榜首，在 手订单充裕，项目启动逐步提效。 财通证券主要观点如下： 深耕代建领域十余载，国内代建第一股 公司是国内房地产轻资产开发模式的先行者与引领者，核心业务模式包括三大代建主业(政府代建、商 业代建、资方代建)及三大配套服务(金融服务、产城服务、产业链服务)，2020年公司在港交所主板上 市，成为国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction agency industry is experiencing a rational return to competition, presenting incremental opportunities despite a decline in new contract signing scale for 2024. The market structure is stabilizing, with leading companies expanding their market share and focusing on risk management and profitability [1] Industry Summary - The construction agency sector is facing intensified competition, a slowdown in land acquisition and construction commencement, and adjustments in storage plans, leading to a decrease in new contract signing scale for 2024. However, by the first half of 2025, no new large-scale entrants are expected, which will stabilize the industry landscape [1] - Urban renewal, the expansion of the "white list," and the promotion of "good housing" policies are expected to drive structural incremental opportunities in the industry. Although single-party construction fees are currently declining, leading companies maintain a market share exceeding 20%, with gross and net profit margins around 40% and 20%, respectively [1] Company Summary - The company is currently experiencing a phase of profit pressure due to the lagging effects of the real estate downturn. However, as competition returns to focus on product quality and operational efficiency, the company is expected to leverage its comprehensive competitive advantages to drive steady profit recovery [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a total construction area of 126.5 million square meters in hand, with new construction fees and building areas growing at double-digit rates year-on-year [1] - The company has improved cash reserves and operating cash flow, with increasing per capita output value and a high dividend payout ratio. It plans to implement a mid-term dividend for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream commercial management and property companies [1] Investment Outlook - The company's earnings may face temporary pressure in 2025, leading to a slight downward adjustment of the 2025 EPS forecast to 0.28 yuan (previously 0.32 yuan). However, as a leading construction agency, the company possesses comprehensive competitive advantages and is expected to gradually emerge from this earnings trough. The 2026 EPS forecast remains at 0.31 yuan, while the 2027 EPS forecast is raised to 0.34 yuan (previously 0.31 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 8.3x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating continued dividend potential under a light asset model [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" as the new paradigm for development [6][8][9] - The core competitiveness of the construction agency model has shifted from simple "price competition" to deeper "value creation" [7][8] - The market environment is opening new development windows for the construction agency industry, with a focus on core cities and institutionalized clients [8][9] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of the construction agency model in China is currently at 12.5%, indicating substantial growth potential compared to 20%-30% in mature markets like Europe and the U.S. [13] - Urban renewal and stock transformation are emerging as new growth areas within the industry [13] - The industry is witnessing a "Matthew effect," where leading firms consolidate while weaker ones exit the market [6][8] Client Structure - The client structure is becoming more diversified and balanced, with state-owned platforms playing a stabilizing role and private enterprises increasing their participation [5][8] - In the first half of the year, the proportion of private clients for Greentown Management reached 37%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [5][8] Policy Support - A clear policy framework is being established to guide the construction agency industry, focusing on urban village renovations, "guaranteed delivery" of housing, and the construction of "good houses" [9][10] - Recent policies emphasize high-quality development in real estate as a means to improve and guarantee livelihoods [9][10] Company Performance - Greentown Management reported a new construction area of approximately 1,989 million square meters in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [11] - The new construction fees reached approximately 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, marking the highest level in three years [11] Future Outlook - The future winners in the industry will be those companies that excel in contract fulfillment, product development, cost control, operational efficiency, service extension, and risk management [13] - Greentown Management aims to be a standard bearer, innovator, and active contributor to the industry's ecosystem, focusing on high-quality development and collaboration [14][15][16]

季度走势而言，2025年前三季度单季度的中标数量持续走高，并且在第二季度、第三季度中标数量连续创新高，其中第三季度中标数量 达到172个，同、环比增幅分别达到37%和17%。 总体来看， 前三季度头部代建企业强烈的扩张意愿有效推动了中标数量的显著增长。 在代建市场逐渐成为红海、增量空间减少的环境 下，已经具备规模优势和品牌效应的企业仍在加速拓展，稳固自身优势。 ◎ 文/ 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 2025年1-9月，头部代建企业扩张的意愿强烈，新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面为15771万平方米，同比增幅达到31%。在头部企业的积 极拓展带动下，前三季度代建项目的中标数量呈现稳步增长态势，尤其在第三季度，中标项目数量再创新高。 前三季度代建项目中标量同比增长18% 连续两个季度稳步抬升 01 根据招标网数据显示，2025年1-9月代建中标项目约为432个，同比增长18%，增速比2024年同期下降10个百分点，但是与半年度相比，增 速有所回升。 从监测的中标数据来看，绿城管理的中标数量断层领先其他企业，第三季度公开中标项目接近20个，其次龙湖龙智造、蓝城集团、旭辉 管理、金地集团等中标数量也显著高于其他企业。第三季度中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].

Core Insights - The event held by Greentown at Haikou marks a significant opportunity as the island approaches its customs closure, indicating a pivotal moment for investment in Hainan [1][3][15] - The concept of "customs closure" serves as a clear value demarcation, with the pre-closure period representing a "value lowland" for strategic asset allocation [3][15] - The event emphasizes the dual value proposition of the project, combining asset value and lifestyle aesthetics, appealing to elite investors [5][10][13] Asset Value Analysis - The event provided a deep analysis of the asset value of Fengming Guantang, highlighting its unique position as a scarce asset in the context of Hainan's customs closure [8][10] - Insights were shared on how the Hainan Free Trade Port policy benefits can translate into sustainable asset appreciation, particularly in the context of the "dual circulation" economic framework [8][10] - The scarcity of land resources in the Haikou area is underscored as a significant factor in establishing a robust value moat for Fengming Guantang [8][11] Lifestyle Aesthetics - The choice of the Bulgari Hotel in Beijing for the event symbolizes the alignment of Greentown's luxury living philosophy with the brand spirit of Bulgari, emphasizing a shared commitment to elegance and craftsmanship [11] - The collaboration between Greentown and Bulgari reflects a deep understanding of contemporary elite lifestyles, aiming to present Fengming Guantang as a "livable jewel" [11][15] Market Positioning - The event serves as a strong market signal, indicating a transition of Hainan's value from "tourism resources" to "strategic assets" [15] - The gathering of elite investors at the event not only provided insights into the project but also fostered a sense of community among those who recognize the investment potential in Hainan [13][15] - The opening of the Fengming Guantang aesthetic demonstration area in December is anticipated to further solidify its market position as a premium investment opportunity [15]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 1.697 million shares on November 17, 2025, marking a decrease of 0.61% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net reduction of 3.592 million shares, with southbound funds reducing their holdings for five consecutive days [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on 13 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 3.707 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 17, 2025, southbound funds hold 27.8 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, which represents 13.88% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Greentown Management Holdings primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services including project management and consulting [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 353,000 shares on November 14 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been five days of net reductions, totaling 2.67 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net reductions, amounting to 1.30 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, representing 13.97% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [4]. Core Insights - Key monitored enterprises acquired 32 plots of land with a total transaction amount of 375.3 billion yuan [5][6]. - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 45 billion yuan [5][6]. Land Reserves - Recent land acquisition details include: - Yuexiu Property acquired a residential land in Guangzhou for 1.194 billion yuan, with a premium of 8.2% [8]. - In Changsha, 3 residential plots were sold for a total of 1.89 billion yuan, with a maximum premium of 18% [9]. - China Green Development secured land in Sanya for 1.36 billion yuan at the base price [10]. - China Resources Land won a plot in Dongguan for 1.91 billion yuan, with a saleable floor price of 21,606 yuan/m² [11]. Investment Financing - Recent financing activities include: - Tiandi Source issued 200 million yuan in medium-term notes with an interest rate of 3.60% [12][14]. - Fuzhou Urban Investment Group successfully issued 580 million yuan in short-term financing bonds [15]. - China Communications Construction Company received approval for a 300 million yuan corporate bond [16]. - Hangzhou Anju Group's 2 billion yuan corporate bond was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [17]. Corporate Dynamics - China State Construction Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Chongqing government [18]. - Greentown Management and Chongqing Green Development signed a cooperation development agreement to enhance high-quality real estate projects [19].