绿城管理在新拓项目、总订单储备、交付规模、代建收入等指标中始终保持行业龙头地位。布局加速向高能级城市倾斜、订单结构优化进一步提升企业抗 风险能力。 竞争加剧下，企业净利润、利润率有所下滑，盈利难度攀升。下半年绿城管理采取一系列改革和能力提升，部分经营指标有了明显止跌回稳趋势。 ◎ 作者 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 核 心 观 点 【 规模稳中有进稳固龙头地位，结构升维驱动市占率扩张】 代建行业整体规模增速放缓、竞争加剧的背景下，绿城管理新拓规模仍稳中有进，维持行业领 先地位。2024年新拓代建项目总面积3649万平方米，同比微涨3.4%，新拓项目代建费用（估算）为93.05亿元，同比下降10.3%；顺应市场周期变化， 2024年绿城管理新拓结构较2023年发生了明显的变化，私营企业首次超过政府和国企，成为了第一大委托方。 【 订单底仓充实保障未来业绩增长，项目运营与交付效率双提升】 绿城管理2024年末在建面积53.96百万平方米，同比增加3%；可售货值9321亿元，订 单底仓充实；一二线城市占总建筑面积的44.0%，四大核心城市圈占比76.6%，抗风险能力进一步提升；商业代建建筑面积9570万平方米，占比达 76. ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 11 年 月 日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 代建竞争加剧，重视经营巩固龙头地位 2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93. ...

2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93.2 亿 元（-10.1%），新拓单价 255 元/平方米（-13.1%）。虽然新拓金额、单价下 滑，但公司 2024 年新签市占率 22.1%，继续保持代建市场龙 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月10日 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测 注：摊薄每股收益按最新总股本计算 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 优于大市 竞争加剧导致业绩承压 归母净利-18%，政府代建承压。2024 年公司实现营业收入 34 亿元，同比增 长 4%；实现归母净利润 8 亿元，同比下降 18%。公司增收不增利的原因主要 为毛利率下滑，以及计提信贷减值约 1 亿元。分类别看，公司商业代建收入 为 28 亿元，同比增长 17%,收入占比增长 9pct 至 80%；政府代建业务收入 6.3 亿元，同比下降21%。2024 年公司整体毛利率为49.6%，较上年末下降2.6pct， 其中商业代建毛利率为 51%，政府代建毛利率为 40%，分别较上年末下降 1、 5pct。 规模稳中有进，新拓结构优化。截至 2024 年末，公司业务分布已覆盖 130 个城市，合约总建筑面积达 1.3 亿平方米，同比增长 5%，当期在建面积 0.5 亿平放米，同比增长 3%，保持行业龙头地位。在全国化布局下，公司市占率 稳步扩大，2024 年新签代建规模 3649 万平方米，新签市占率 22.1%，较上 年提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction management industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the top 30 companies showing a total contracted area of 914 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23% [1][10] - The top 30 construction management companies added a new signed area of 19.3 million square meters, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has decreased by 20 percentage points compared to 2023 [12] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable performance among leading companies, with the top three being Greentown Management, Blue City Group, and Jindi Management [7][8] Summary by Sections Ranking Release - The report lists the top 30 construction management companies in China, highlighting their rankings and names [2][3] Ranking Interpretation - The top companies exhibit stable performance, with Greentown Management maintaining a market share of over 20% since 2016, while Blue City Group and Jindi Management also show strong competitive advantages [7] - New entrants in the market are rapidly expanding, with companies like Xuhui Construction Management and Longfor Longzhizao emerging as significant players [8][9] - Private enterprises dominate the top 30 list, accounting for 63%, while state-owned enterprises and mixed ownership companies make up 17% and 20%, respectively [9] Market Data - The total contracted area for the top 30 companies reached 914 million square meters, with nine companies experiencing over 50% growth in their contracted scale [10] - The concentration of new contracts remains high, with the top five companies accounting for 46% of the total contracted area and new contracts [12] Competitive Landscape - The industry is facing intensified competition, prompting companies to adopt strategic transformations and innovations to adapt to market changes [17] - Many companies are extending their service chains to offer comprehensive service models, while diversifying their business areas beyond traditional residential construction [17][18]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 2024年业绩公告点评：行业竞争致利润下降， 龙头地位进一步稳固 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3303 | 3441 | 3636 | 3836 | 4043 | | 同比(%) | 24.34 | 4.18 | 5.65 | 5.51 | 5.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 973.61 | 801.13 | 822.77 | 874.57 | 932.80 | | 同比(%) | 30.77 | (17.71) | 2.70 | 6.30 | 6.66 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.46 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 5.66 | 6.87 | 6.69 | 6.30 | 5.90 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.44 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.7% to 800 million yuan [7] - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with a new project area of 36.49 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [7] - The company has adjusted its project structure in response to market conditions, increasing the proportion of private enterprise projects in new projects to 33% [7] - The company’s dividend for 2024 is set at 0.24 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio adjusted to 60% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilizing real estate market, with projected net profits of 8.2 billion yuan and 8.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 3.44 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 5.65% in 2025 [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 801.13 million yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 822.77 million yuan in 2025 [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.40 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.46 yuan by 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 6.87 in 2024 to 5.90 in 2027 [8]

绿城管理控股 （09979.HK） 2025 年 03 月 31 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 2.880 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 7.980/2.570 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 57.89 | | 总股本(亿股) | 20.10 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 20.10 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 24.56 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 绿城管理控股 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《行业竞争加剧，新拓订单增速放缓 —港股公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.27 房地产/房地产服务 收入增长利润下降，新拓市占率提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | ...

房地产 2025 年 03 月 31 日 绿城管理控股(9979.HK) 公 司 报 告 规模领先，竞争加剧 推荐（维持） 股价：2.88 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lcgljt.com | | 大股东/持股 | 绿城中国/71.28% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2010 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2010 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 57.9 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 1.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 41.84 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*半年报点评* 业绩增速放缓，保持行业领先地位*推荐20240826 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*年报点评*高 成长与高股息兼具，配置性价比凸显*推荐20240322 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 3.441 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Gross profit was 1.706 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million RMB, resulting in a basic earnings per share of 0.41 RMB [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of 0.24 RMB per share [1] Group 2 - The company maintained its position as the leading player in the real estate agency service sector, achieving a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The company received multiple accolades, including "Top 1 in China's Real Estate Agency Operations for 2024" and "Top 1 in Comprehensive Strength of Real Estate Agency Enterprises" [1] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had established agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China, with a total contracted project area of 126 million square meters, a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in major economic regions reached 720.1 billion RMB, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] - The building area in first and second-tier cities reached 55.3 million square meters, representing 44.0% of the total building area, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved the largest new project scale in the industry, with a total contracted area of new projects reaching 36.5 million square meters, a year-on-year growth of approximately 3.4% [2] Group 4 - The estimated agency fee for new projects was 9.32 billion RMB, a decrease of approximately 10.1% compared to the previous year, but the overall order quality improved [2] - The price of new projects stabilized from 240 RMB per square meter in the first half of 2024 to 255 RMB per square meter for the entire year [2] - The proportion of projects in first and second-tier cities increased to 58%, up 6 percentage points from the previous year [2]