智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，结合当前估值水平和股息收益率，上调绿城管理控股(09979)股票 评级至跑赢行业，维持目标价3.2港元(对应12倍2025年市盈率、8%的预期股息收益率和16%上行空 间)，主要反映公司前端经营趋势改善以及较高股息率带来的额外支撑。公司目前交易于10.6倍2025年 市盈率和9.5%的预期股息收益率。该行认为前端经营指标的积极变化具备支撑公司未来业绩和经营性 现金流逐步企稳的潜力。 中金主要观点如下： 前端经营指标的积极变化 2024年以来绿城管理在经营业绩、现金流等方面均面临一定压力，在2025年上半年，该行看到前端经营 趋势的积极变化： 1)上半年新拓展金额同比增长19%，对应单平米代建费251元，同比提升5%;2)上半年经营性现金流净额 同比增长45%，有所修复;3)1-7月整体代建销售具备韧性，增速跑赢TOP10房企14ppt;该行认为这些积极 变化有望为公司未来的经营提供支撑。 公司历来重视股东回报，2022-2023年派息比例均超过100%。根据业绩会，公司将持续优化派息政策， 致力于为股东提供长期、稳健且可持续的回报，若按每股股息与2024年持平估计，则全年分 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：竺劲 核心观点 1. 自2021 年下半年以来，房企融资渠道收紧，人力过剩，不少房企选择通过代建这种无负债手段实现 扩张与生存，目前已有包括华润、金地、龙湖在内的60 多家房企涉足代建行业，且大多选择了和绿城 管理控股一致的轻资产模式，部分企业选择利用低价策略扩大市场份额，行业竞争加剧可能带来公司毛 利率降低；2. 绿城管理控股作为轻资产公司，需要项目经理把控项目设计、施工、销售、后续物业的全 流程进度，对项目经理有较高的要求，人才发展速度跟不上可能会制约公司订单增长，激烈竞争亦有可 能导致公司人才流失，继而致使业务扩张速度减慢。 公司2025 年上半年实现营收13.7 亿元，同比下降17.7%，主要由于近年来代建行业竞争加剧、房地产市 场整体下行影响存在滞后效应。上半年实现归母净利润2.6 亿元，同比下降48.9%，业绩降幅大于营收 降幅主要由于行业竞争加剧、费率下行导致毛利率下降。作为业绩领先指标的新拓订单在上半年实现稳 健增长，上半年新拓代建总建面1989 万方，同比增长13.9%，新拓代建项目代建费约50 亿元，同比增 长19.1%；公司新拓规模稳居行业第一，私营企业订单主 ...

机构：国信证券 研究员：任鹤/王粤雷/王静 归母净利-49%，毛利率显著下降。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入13.7 亿元，同比下降18%；实现归母 净利润2.6 亿元，同比下降49%。公司收入下降的原因为近年来代建行业竞争加剧，房地产市场整体下 行影响存在滞后效应导致项目整体收入下降；公司利润下降的原因是代建业务毛利率下降11.5pct至 40.0%。 新拓规模增长，业务布局优化。2025 上半年公司新拓代建面积约1989 万平方米，同比增长13.9%，新 拓代建费约人民币50 亿元，同比增长19.1%。公司商业代建占比持续上扬，民营委托方活跃度提升，一 二线城市布局占58%，其中杭州、南京、石家庄、苏州等城市占比较高，实现规模与质量双提升，业务 布局更趋优化。公司拓展能力逆市提升，投标中标率、重复委托率连续三年显著提升，彰显强劲的市场 拓展能力与稳固的客户基础，进一步提升战略客户粘性，创新业务模式，提升核心能力，扩展发展空 间。2025 年上半年如期交付45 个项目、建筑面积465 万平方米，交付面积占代建TOP10 交付总量的 60%，交付满意度保持92%的高位，下半年预计仍有近1000 万平方米交付 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 28 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 止跌回稳仍是重要目标，储备政策值得期待 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/08/16-25/08/22） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 3.5%、深证成指上升 4.6%、创业板指上升 5.9%、沪 深 300 上升 4.2%、房地产（申万）上升 0.5%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为： ST 中迪(+17.2%)、深深房 A(+14.4%)、黑牡丹(+13.3%)、电子城(+11.0%)、万通发 展(+9.1%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：衢州发展(-11.7%)、*ST 南置(-11.1%)、皇庭国 际(-6.4%)、深物业 A ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift towards intelligent driving technologies, with companies like HUAWEI and Horizon leading the way in advanced driver assistance systems [13][14]. - The penetration rate of L2 and above autonomous driving features in passenger vehicles reached 29.7% as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [14]. - Investment recommendations include companies such as Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, and suppliers like Suoteng Technology and Hesai Technology for components [15]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector showed weaker performance compared to the overall market, with the biopharmaceutical segment rising only 1.05% [16]. - The World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) in September 2025 will showcase innovative research from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, highlighting the growing competitiveness of domestic products [16][17]. - Investment focus is recommended on companies presenting at major conferences like ESMO and WCLC, particularly those with promising clinical data [17]. Group 3: Mining and Metals Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for H1 2025 increased by 60% to CNY 8.67 billion, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices alongside increased production [18][19]. - Zijin Mining reported a 54.41% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to a significant rise in gold production and prices [22][23]. - Cloud Aluminum's net profit for H1 2025 grew by 10%, with a strong performance in aluminum production and a proposed cash dividend of CNY 3.2 per share [20][21]. Group 4: Real Estate and Property Management - Poly Property's revenue for H1 2025 reached CNY 8.4 billion, with a net profit increase of 5%, indicating steady growth in property management services [31][32]. - Greentown China reported a significant decline in net profit by 89.7% for H1 2025, primarily due to uneven revenue recognition and asset impairment provisions [33][34]. - The company maintained a strong sales performance, with total sales area down only 10% compared to the industry average, reflecting resilience in a challenging market [34].

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 25H1 业绩承压，新拓规模增长单价稳定，保持代建领先身位 2025H1 公司营收同比-17.7%，归母净利润同比-48.9%。2025 年上半 年，公司实现营收 13.7 亿元（-17.7%，同比变化，下同），实现归母净利 润 2.56 亿元（-48.9%）。期内公司业绩下滑，主要是由于代建行业竞争加 剧，影响收入规模；同时代建费率下行，而人力成本相对刚性，期内公司 代建服务毛利率为 40.0%（-11.4pct），影响利润规模。此外，期末贸易及 其他应收款为 10.0 亿元（较 2024 年末-10.7%），回款速度有所加快；合 同资产为 14.4 亿元（较 2024 年末+6.9%）；上半年经营活动现金净流入 1.12 亿元（+45%），整体现金流维持健康水平。 上半年公司新拓规模增长，新拓单价稳定，新拓结构持续优化。公司继续 保持代建市场龙头地位。2025 年上半年，公司新拓代建合约面积 1989 万 方（+13.9%），新拓代建项目代建费约 50 亿元（约+19.1%），新拓单 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have significantly declined, with a 49% drop in net profit and an 18% decrease in revenue year-on-year for the first half of 2025, attributed to intensified competition in the construction agency industry and a lagging effect from the overall downturn in the real estate market [1][8] - Despite the challenges, the company has seen growth in newly acquired construction area and fees, with a 13.9% increase in new construction area to approximately 19.89 million square meters and a 19.1% rise in new construction fees to around RMB 5 billion [2][9] - The company has maintained a strong market presence, with a high project delivery satisfaction rate of 92% and a robust cash position, leading to the first interim dividend distribution of RMB 0.076 per share [10][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 1.37 billion, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 260 million, down 49% year-on-year [1][8] - The gross profit margin for the construction agency business fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0% [1][8] - The company expects revenues of RMB 3.6 billion and RMB 3.7 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to RMB 650 million and RMB 631 million for the same years [3][4] Financial Metrics - The company has a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.32 for 2025 and RMB 0.31 for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.0 and 9.3 [3][4] - The financial outlook includes a steady cash position of RMB 1.64 billion as of mid-2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [10][2] - The company has a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% for the interim dividend [10][2]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its leading position in the construction agency industry despite a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified competition and a downturn in the real estate market, and it is expected to benefit from a market recovery in the medium to long term [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 256 million yuan, down 48.9% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0%, while the management expense ratio increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.9% [1] - The company had cash on hand of 1.64 billion yuan, an increase of 8% from the end of 2024, and generated operating net cash flow of 112 million yuan, up 45% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with new project scale increasing in H1 2025 [1] - The total contracted project area reached 12.65 million square meters, with 38.4% of the area pending development, indicating a favorable overall value structure [1] - The company achieved a sales amount of 41.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the marketing expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 2.2% [1] Group 3: New Projects and Dividends - In H1 2025, the company expanded its contracted area by 1.989 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with new project construction fees amounting to approximately 5 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year [2] - The new commercial construction area accounted for 81% of the new projects, with a year-on-year increase of 12 percentage points [2] - The company initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, declaring a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 60% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing positive operational data, with improving cash flow and a slowdown in pressure from contract assets and receivables, laying a solid foundation for long-term development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, with a gross margin of approximately 40% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 256 million yuan [1] - The company decided to implement a mid-term dividend for the first time, distributing 0.076 yuan per share [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with an increase to 22.1% in 2024 despite intense competition [2] - The company’s new construction area increased by 13.9% year-on-year to approximately 19.89 million square meters, and the new construction fee rose by 19.1% to about 5 billion yuan [1][2] Group 3: Business Structure and Clientele - The proportion of commercial construction, which has a higher profit margin, has continued to rise, accounting for about 81% of the total new construction area [2] - The activity level of private enterprise clients has significantly increased, indicating a broad market space for future opportunities [2] Group 4: Delivery and Orders - In the first half of 2025, the company delivered 4.65 million square meters, representing 60% of the total delivery volume of the top 10 companies in the industry [3] - The total area of orders on hand reached 126.5 million square meters, with 77% concentrated in four major urban clusters: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing [3] Group 5: Dividend Strategy - The mid-term dividend reflects the company's confidence in cash flow management and operational capability, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [4] - The company plans to optimize its dividend distribution method to ensure long-term, stable, and sustainable returns for shareholders, contingent on sufficient cash reserves and continued operational improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][13] Core Views - The company, as a leader in the construction agency industry, has maintained a market share exceeding 20% for nine consecutive years, despite a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified industry competition and a downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market in the medium to long term, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being CNY 939 million, CNY 1,064 million, and CNY 1,181 million respectively, corresponding to EPS of CNY 0.47, CNY 0.53, and CNY 0.59 [6][9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.374 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, and a net profit of CNY 256 million, down 48.9% [7] - The gross margin fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0%, while the management expense ratio increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.9% [7] - The company has cash on hand of CNY 1.64 billion, an increase of 8% from the end of 2024, and achieved operating net cash flow of CNY 112 million, up 45% year-on-year [7] Market Position and Growth - The total contracted project area as of the first half of 2025 is 12.65 million square meters, with 38.4% of the area pending development, indicating a favorable overall value structure [8] - The company achieved a sales amount of CNY 41.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and maintained the industry’s highest project delivery area of 4.65 million square meters [8] - New contract area in the first half of 2025 reached 1.989 million square meters, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a new contract construction fee of approximately CNY 5 billion, an increase of 19.1% [8]