Core Viewpoint - The company is a pioneer in the light asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction services and three supporting services, and has become the first listed company in this field in China [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 13.9% year-on-year increase in newly expanded construction projects, totaling 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] - The projected construction fees for newly expanded projects in 1H2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of construction fees outpaces the growth rate of newly expanded area [1] Group 2: Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently prioritized shareholder returns since its listing, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [1] - For the first time, the company declared an interim dividend in 1H2025, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [1] - Following the interim results announcement, the company has repurchased a total of 10 million shares, with a total repurchase amount of 27.91 million yuan, and these repurchased shares have been fully canceled as of October 28 [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the construction sector, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 630 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.32 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [2] - The company is assigned a "buy" rating based on its established scale advantages and brand effects, with a projected PE ratio of 8.9, 8.5, and 7.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Greentown Management Holdings (09979) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's strong position in the construction agency sector, its scale advantages, brand effect, and robust order backlog, which is expected to enhance project initiation efficiency [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Greentown Management is a pioneer and leader in the light-asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction agency businesses: government agency, commercial agency, and capital agency, along with three supporting services: financial services, urban-rural integration services, and industrial chain services [2]. - The company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020, becoming the first construction agency stock in China [2]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the company’s newly expanded construction agency project total building area increased by 13.9% year-on-year to 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [3]. - The estimated construction agency fees for new projects in the first half of 2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of agency fees outpaces that of the newly expanded area [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently prioritized shareholder returns since its listing, with dividend payout ratios exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company declared its first interim dividend, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [4]. - Following the mid-term earnings release, the company has also engaged in share buybacks, having repurchased a total of 10 million shares for a total amount of 27.91 million yuan, with the repurchased shares completed for cancellation as of October 28 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Greentown Management Holdings (09979) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's strong position in the construction agency sector, its scale advantages, brand effect, and robust order backlog, which is expected to enhance project initiation efficiency [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Greentown Management is a pioneer in the light-asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction agency businesses (government, commercial, and financial agency) and three supporting services (financial, urban development, and industrial chain services) [1] - The company became the first listed construction agency in China when it went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 [1] Group 2: Project Expansion - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 13.9% year-on-year increase in newly expanded construction projects, totaling 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [2] - The projected construction agency fees for new projects in 1H2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of agency fees is higher than that of the newly expanded area [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Since its listing, the company has prioritized shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [3] - In 1H2025, the company declared its first interim dividend, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [3] - Following the mid-term earnings release, the company has repurchased a total of 10 million shares, amounting to 27.91 million yuan, with the repurchased shares already completed for cancellation as of October 28 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction agency industry is experiencing a rational return to competition, presenting incremental opportunities despite a decline in new contract signing scale for 2024. The market structure is stabilizing, with leading companies expanding their market share and focusing on risk management and profitability [1] Industry Summary - The construction agency sector is facing intensified competition, a slowdown in land acquisition and construction commencement, and adjustments in storage plans, leading to a decrease in new contract signing scale for 2024. However, by the first half of 2025, no new large-scale entrants are expected, which will stabilize the industry landscape [1] - Urban renewal, the expansion of the "white list," and the promotion of "good housing" policies are expected to drive structural incremental opportunities in the industry. Although single-party construction fees are currently declining, leading companies maintain a market share exceeding 20%, with gross and net profit margins around 40% and 20%, respectively [1] Company Summary - The company is currently experiencing a phase of profit pressure due to the lagging effects of the real estate downturn. However, as competition returns to focus on product quality and operational efficiency, the company is expected to leverage its comprehensive competitive advantages to drive steady profit recovery [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a total construction area of 126.5 million square meters in hand, with new construction fees and building areas growing at double-digit rates year-on-year [1] - The company has improved cash reserves and operating cash flow, with increasing per capita output value and a high dividend payout ratio. It plans to implement a mid-term dividend for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream commercial management and property companies [1] Investment Outlook - The company's earnings may face temporary pressure in 2025, leading to a slight downward adjustment of the 2025 EPS forecast to 0.28 yuan (previously 0.32 yuan). However, as a leading construction agency, the company possesses comprehensive competitive advantages and is expected to gradually emerge from this earnings trough. The 2026 EPS forecast remains at 0.31 yuan, while the 2027 EPS forecast is raised to 0.34 yuan (previously 0.31 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 8.3x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating continued dividend potential under a light asset model [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" as the new paradigm for development [6][8][9] - The core competitiveness of the construction agency model has shifted from simple "price competition" to deeper "value creation" [7][8] - The market environment is opening new development windows for the construction agency industry, with a focus on core cities and institutionalized clients [8][9] Industry Trends - The penetration rate of the construction agency model in China is currently at 12.5%, indicating substantial growth potential compared to 20%-30% in mature markets like Europe and the U.S. [13] - Urban renewal and stock transformation are emerging as new growth areas within the industry [13] - The industry is witnessing a "Matthew effect," where leading firms consolidate while weaker ones exit the market [6][8] Client Structure - The client structure is becoming more diversified and balanced, with state-owned platforms playing a stabilizing role and private enterprises increasing their participation [5][8] - In the first half of the year, the proportion of private clients for Greentown Management reached 37%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [5][8] Policy Support - A clear policy framework is being established to guide the construction agency industry, focusing on urban village renovations, "guaranteed delivery" of housing, and the construction of "good houses" [9][10] - Recent policies emphasize high-quality development in real estate as a means to improve and guarantee livelihoods [9][10] Company Performance - Greentown Management reported a new construction area of approximately 1,989 million square meters in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [11] - The new construction fees reached approximately 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, marking the highest level in three years [11] Future Outlook - The future winners in the industry will be those companies that excel in contract fulfillment, product development, cost control, operational efficiency, service extension, and risk management [13] - Greentown Management aims to be a standard bearer, innovator, and active contributor to the industry's ecosystem, focusing on high-quality development and collaboration [14][15][16]

Core Insights - The leading construction companies have shown a strong willingness to expand, with the top 20 companies signing new contracts for a total area of 15,771 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - The number of awarded construction projects has steadily increased, particularly in the third quarter, which saw a record high in project awards [2][3] Group 1: Project Awards - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of awarded construction projects reached approximately 432, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate has decreased by 10 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The third quarter alone saw 172 awarded projects, with both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 37% and 17%, respectively [3] - Leading companies like Greentown Management have significantly outperformed others in terms of awarded projects, with nearly 20 projects in the third quarter [3] Group 2: Client Composition - Government and state-owned enterprises remain the primary clients for construction projects, including urban investment land and urban renewal projects [7] - There was a slight decrease in the proportion of projects commissioned by government and state-owned enterprises in the third quarter, dropping to 70%, a decline of nearly 20 percentage points compared to the average for the first eight months [7] Group 3: Regional Distribution - The distribution of awarded projects in the third quarter remained consistent with the first half of the year, with third and fourth-tier cities accounting for about 50% of the projects, while the Yangtze River Delta's share has been declining [9] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the awarded project distribution was 14% in first-tier cities, 35% in second-tier cities, and 51% in third and fourth-tier cities, indicating a trend where lower-tier cities dominate [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].

Core Insights - The event held by Greentown at Haikou marks a significant opportunity as the island approaches its customs closure, indicating a pivotal moment for investment in Hainan [1][3][15] - The concept of "customs closure" serves as a clear value demarcation, with the pre-closure period representing a "value lowland" for strategic asset allocation [3][15] - The event emphasizes the dual value proposition of the project, combining asset value and lifestyle aesthetics, appealing to elite investors [5][10][13] Asset Value Analysis - The event provided a deep analysis of the asset value of Fengming Guantang, highlighting its unique position as a scarce asset in the context of Hainan's customs closure [8][10] - Insights were shared on how the Hainan Free Trade Port policy benefits can translate into sustainable asset appreciation, particularly in the context of the "dual circulation" economic framework [8][10] - The scarcity of land resources in the Haikou area is underscored as a significant factor in establishing a robust value moat for Fengming Guantang [8][11] Lifestyle Aesthetics - The choice of the Bulgari Hotel in Beijing for the event symbolizes the alignment of Greentown's luxury living philosophy with the brand spirit of Bulgari, emphasizing a shared commitment to elegance and craftsmanship [11] - The collaboration between Greentown and Bulgari reflects a deep understanding of contemporary elite lifestyles, aiming to present Fengming Guantang as a "livable jewel" [11][15] Market Positioning - The event serves as a strong market signal, indicating a transition of Hainan's value from "tourism resources" to "strategic assets" [15] - The gathering of elite investors at the event not only provided insights into the project but also fostered a sense of community among those who recognize the investment potential in Hainan [13][15] - The opening of the Fengming Guantang aesthetic demonstration area in December is anticipated to further solidify its market position as a premium investment opportunity [15]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 1.697 million shares on November 17, 2025, marking a decrease of 0.61% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net reduction of 3.592 million shares, with southbound funds reducing their holdings for five consecutive days [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on 13 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 3.707 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 17, 2025, southbound funds hold 27.8 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, which represents 13.88% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Greentown Management Holdings primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services including project management and consulting [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 353,000 shares on November 14 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been five days of net reductions, totaling 2.67 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net reductions, amounting to 1.30 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, representing 13.97% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners [2]