Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 6.19, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.302 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the construction management industry, maintaining a market share of 20.4% [3]. - The management has set ambitious performance guidance for the next three years, aiming for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue and net profit [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 52.2%, consistent with the previous year, with specific margins for commercial management at 52.3%, government management at 45.2%, and other services at 82.2% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached RMB 955 million, reflecting a 31.8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong earnings quality [2]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its project management footprint to 29 provinces and 122 cities, with a total contracted construction area of 120 million square meters, a 17.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - New project contracts in 2023 saw a total construction area of 35 million square meters, marking a 25.0% increase year-on-year, with a CAGR of 24.4% from 2021 to 2023 [3]. Organizational Changes - The company initiated organizational restructuring to enhance management efficiency, creating five new regional/city companies to improve service responsiveness [4]. - The introduction of the "Bai Chuan Plan" aims to attract city partners and high-quality projects through diversified cooperation models [4]. Future Outlook - The management has provided a positive outlook, projecting a net profit margin of over 25% and a dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% in the coming years [2][4]. - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in major economic regions is RMB 693.3 billion, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [3].

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月25日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 买入 业绩增长 31%，派息率 100% 核心观点 公司研究·海外公司财报点评 归母净利增长30.8%，派息率100%。2023年公司实现营业收入33.0亿元， 房地产·房地产服务 同比增长24.3%；实现归母净利润9.7亿元，同比增长30.8%，归母净利润 证券分析师：任鹤 证券分析师：王粤雷 增速高于收入增速的主要原因为高毛利的商业代建业务占比提升。分类别 010-88005315 0755-81981019 renhe@guosen.com.cn wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn 看，公司商业代建收入为23.5亿元，同比增长40.5%,收入占比增长8.1pct S0980520040006 S0980520030001 至71.0%；政府代建业务收入7.9亿元，同比增长1.0%；其他业务收入1.7 证券分析师：王静 亿元。2023公司整体毛利率为52.2%，较上年末基本持平，其中商业代建毛 021-60893314 wangjing20@guosen.com.cn 利率为52.3%，政府代建毛利率为45.2%，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in business scale, with 2023 revenue reaching 3.302 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and net profit of 970 million RMB, up 30.8% [2][3] - Greentown continues to lead the light-asset development sector in real estate, maintaining over 20% market share in the construction agency market for eight consecutive years [2] - The company has diversified its client base, with 74.7% of new construction agency projects coming from government and state-owned enterprises [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.302 billion RMB, with a gross profit of approximately 1.72 billion RMB, maintaining a gross margin of about 52.2% [2] - The cash flow from operating activities was 960 million RMB, reflecting a 31.8% increase year-on-year [2] Market Position - As of the end of 2023, Greentown's construction agency projects spanned 122 major cities across 29 provinces, with a total contracted area of 119 million square meters, a 17.9% increase from the previous year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects is approximately 693.3 billion RMB, with significant contributions from key economic regions [2] Client Diversification - The company has adapted its business structure to deepen opportunities with state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, resulting in a 25% year-on-year increase in new contracted area [2] - The breakdown of new projects shows that government projects account for 26.8%, state-owned enterprises for 34.2%, and private enterprises for 31.7% of the total contracted area [2] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.253 billion RMB, 1.546 billion RMB, and 1.874 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 0.62, 0.77, and 0.93 RMB [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 24.3% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 3.302 billion RMB in 2023, with a 100% dividend payout [6][13]. - The company continues to hold the leading position in the real estate development service sector, maintaining over 20% market share for eight consecutive years [6][7]. - The company has optimized its client structure and expanded its business boundaries, with new project contracts covering a total building area of 35.3 million square meters, a 25% increase from the previous year [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 1.722 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 974 million RMB in 2023, representing year-on-year increases of 24.0% and 30.8%, respectively [6][13]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin remained stable at 52.2%, consistent with the previous year [6][14]. - The company has no bank debt and reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 955 million RMB, indicating strong cash flow [6][7]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its project layout across 122 major cities in 29 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China, with a total contracted project area of 119.6 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [6][7]. - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects in 2023 reached 693.3 billion RMB, accounting for 77.7% of the overall saleable value [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.60 RMB for 2024, with a valuation range of 185-212 billion HKD, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 9.23-10.55 HKD per share [7][15].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年03月25日 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 业绩高增全额派息，持续受益代建蓝海 事件：3月21日，公司发布2023年年报。 买入（维持） 2023 年营收同比+24.3%，归母净利润同比+30.8%，业绩高增符合预期。 股票信息 2023年公司实现营收33.0亿元，同比增长24.3%。其中商业代建收入23.5亿 元，同比增长40.5%；政府代建收入7.9亿元，同比增长0.9%；其他服务收入 行业 物业服务及管理 1.7亿元，同比减少18.3%。公司2023年实现归母净利润9.7亿元，同比增长 前次评级 买入 30.8%。业绩表现亮眼，主要得益于（1）代建逆周期优势凸显，利润率不惧行 3月22日收盘价(港元) 6.19 业波动始终维持高位，2023年公司整体毛利率52.2%；（2）在公司管理边界扩 总市值(百万港元) 12,441.90 大、复杂的市场环境下，成本管控进一步加强，销管费用率进一步下降至18.7%。 总股本(百万股) 2,010.00 公司继续保持代建市场龙头地位，规模持续增长且聚焦核心都市圈。2023年公 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 司新拓代 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Greentown Management with a target price of HK$ 9.37, reflecting a 13x 2024E PE [2][4]. Core Insights - Greentown Management achieved a net profit growth of +31% YoY in FY23, with a maintained dividend payout ratio of 100%, resulting in an 8% dividend yield [2][5]. - The company is expected to guide industry-leading growth with a revenue CAGR of +20% and net profit CAGR of +25% over the next three years, potentially outperforming the broader property market [2][8]. - The company's adaptability in business restructuring has been highlighted as a key factor in its strong performance despite a sluggish property market [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 results showed revenue of RMB 3,302 million, a 24.3% increase YoY, and attributable net profit of RMB 974 million, up 31% YoY [3][5]. - Gross profit margin remained stable at 52%, with a slight decrease in commercial project management (PJM) margin to 52% and an improvement in government PJM margin to 45% [5][12]. - The company reported a net margin of 29.5% in FY23, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous year [5][12]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 4,048 million in FY24, with a YoY growth of 22.6%, and net profit is expected to be RMB 1,250.9 million, reflecting a 28.5% increase [3][7]. - The company has a billable contract value of RMB 25 billion, with an expected annual increase of approximately RMB 10 billion [2][8]. - The forecast for net profit in FY26 is RMB 1,897.3 million, indicating a continued growth trajectory [3][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Greentown Management has expanded its business into non-residential projects, which accounted for 15% of new contracts in FY23, in response to a contracting residential market [2][8]. - The company has successfully maintained its market share in the property management sector, with newly contracted gross floor area (GFA) increasing to 35.3 million square meters in FY23 [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's asset-light model and high cash flow as significant advantages in the current market environment [2][8].

房地产/房地产服务 公 司 研 绿城管理控股 营收利润保持增长，代建龙头维持全额派息 究 （09979.HK） ——港股公司信息更新报告 2024年03月24日 齐东（分析师） qidong@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790522010002 投资评级：买入（维持）  代建行业龙头地位稳固，维持“买入”评级 港 股 日期 2024/3/22 绿城管理控股发布 2023年业绩，营收利润保持增长，合约和新签项目面积稳步 公 扩张，作为代建行业引领者，连续八年保持20%以上代建市场份额。在保障房建 司 当前股价(港元) 6.190 信 一年最高最低(港元) 7.970/4.300 设加速、城投拿地比例提升及纾困房企保交楼需求下，我们认为公司将在代建红 息 总市值(亿港元) 124.42 海竞争中稳步发展，我们上调 2024-2025 年并新增 2026 年盈利预测，预计 更 新 流通市值(亿港元) 124.42 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为 12.78、16.25、20.13 亿元（2024-2025年原 报 总股本(亿股) 20.10 值为11.36、13.25亿元），对应EPS分别为0. ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 绿城管理控股（09979.HK） 2023 年业绩公告点评：业绩高增 100%分红， 2024年 03月 22日 龙头地位保持稳固 证券分析师 房诚琦 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 证券分析师 肖畅 执业证书：S0600523020003 营业总收入（百万元） 2,657 3,303 4,150 5,155 6,322 xiaoc@dwzq.com.cn 同比 18.37% 24.34% 25.62% 24.24% 22.62% 证券分析师 白学松 归母净利润（百万元） 744.54 973.61 1,249.70 1,544.38 1,891.46 执业证书：S0600523050001 同比 31.73% 30.77% 28.36% 23.58% 22.47% baixs@dwzq.com.cn EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 0.37 0.48 0.62 0.77 0.94 P/E（现价&最新摊 ...

2024 年 3月 21日，公司发布 2023 年全年业绩：实现营收 33.02 亿元，同比+24.3%；归母净利润9.74 亿元，同比+30.8%。 营收、归母净利润增长符合预期。公司凭借良好的绿城品牌、央 企信用、多元化客户结构、全国化核心城市业务布局，实现新拓 业务规模稳步提升，进一步巩固龙头地位，在代建行业中连续 8 年保持 20%以上的市占率。2023 年公司营收稳健增长，综合毛利 率为 52.2%，同比基本持平。随着业务持续拓展，公司整体业绩确 定性较强。 港币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 新拓逆势增长，优化客户结构。2023 年代建市场竞争加剧，公司 9.00 200 180 新拓合约建面35.3 万方，同比+25.0%，其中政府+国企+金融机构 8.00 160 140 合计占比74.7%；新拓代建费预估103.7 亿元，同比+20.5%，其中 7.00 120 100 政府+国企+金融机构合计占比69.4%。截至2023 年末，公司总合 6.00 80 60 约建面119.6 万方，其中政府占比26.8%，同比-5.8pct；国企占 5.00 40 20 比 34.2%，同比+5.9pct；金 ...

公 房地产 司 2024年03月 22日 报 绿城管理控股(9979.HK) 告 高成长与高股息兼具，配置性价比凸显 推荐（维持） 事项： 公司发布2023年年报，2023年实现营收33.02亿元，同比增长24.3%；归母 股价：5.71 港元 净利润9.74亿元，同比增长30.8%；派发末期股息0.4元/股及特别股息0.1元 /股。 公 主要数据 平安观点： 司  龙头领先，派息慷慨。截至2023年末，公司合约建筑面积、在建面积分 行业 房地产 年 公司网址 www.lcgljt.com 别为1.2、0.53亿平米，覆盖城市122个，其中四大主要城市群合约面积 大股东/持股 绿城中国/71.28% 占比76.2%、可售货值占比77.7%；根据中指研究院数据，公司市场占有 报 实际控制人 国务院国有资产监督管理委会 率连续8年超20%，在近百家品牌房企布局代建赛道环境下，规模保持绝 点 总股本(百万股) 2010 对领先。2023年经营性现金流9.55亿元，同比增长31.8%，回款能力有 流通A股(百万股) 0 保障。派发末期股息0.4元/股及特别股息0.1元/股，派息比例100%，并 评 流通B/H股(百 ...