Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in crude oil freight rates, with the China Import Crude Oil Index (CTFI) reaching 2520.07 points, an increase of 8.4% from November 20 [3][13] - The postal industry revenue surpassed the telecommunications industry for the first time in history, reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, compared to 1.467 trillion yuan for telecommunications [3][24] - The civil aviation sector showed growth in both passenger and cargo transport volumes in October, with international routes performing particularly well [3][17] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are rising, with the Middle East route seeing a 10.76% increase in rates [13] - Qifly Aviation signed a procurement agreement for 105 eVTOL aircraft with three companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, focusing on low-altitude logistics [15][16] - The postal industry revenue for January to October 2025 reached 1.47 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [24][25] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flights in October 2025 increased by 0.32% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 11.12% [32] - The express delivery business volume in October 2025 increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan [50] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to warm up for a bull market in early 2025, with stable funds likely to support the market amid unchanged policy attitudes. The current adjustment is seen as a healthy correction within the bull market, setting the stage for a pre-spring rally at the end of the year and the beginning of the next [4][2] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to be the main line for investment during this period, benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and risk appetite. The Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices are expected to lead the recovery in broad-based indices [4][2] - The AI industry chain remains optimistic, with strong downstream demand and short-term supply challenges in AI infrastructure, presenting investment opportunities in power supply and computing power, particularly in domestic computing power [4][2] December Stock Picks - The December stock picks from Zhongyin Securities include: - Poly Real Estate Group (Real Estate) - Jitu Express-W (Transportation) - China Merchants Energy (Transportation) - Wanhua Chemical (Chemicals) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Huayou Cobalt (New Energy) - Anjii Food (Food and Beverage) - Changbai Mountain (Social Services) - Feiliwa (Electronics) [6][8] Real Estate Industry: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3% due to investment losses and increased minority shareholder losses [8][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased to 1.3% [8][9] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with total interest-bearing debt decreasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and all "three red lines" indicators turning green, indicating a healthier financial position [9][10] Transportation Industry: Jitu Express-W - The company achieved a total revenue of $5.499 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with significant growth in the Southeast Asian market [13][14] - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased to 32.8%, while the Chinese market saw a 20% increase in package volume [14][15] - The company is focusing on cost optimization and has implemented a flexible pricing mechanism to enhance competitiveness [15] Transportation Industry: China Merchants Energy - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue to 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit increased by 5.59% to 5.107 billion yuan, indicating resilient profitability [16][17] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in shipping volume, particularly in high-value routes, contributing to a strong performance [16][17] Chemical Industry: Wanhua Chemical - The company’s revenue from polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals in the first half of 2025 was 36.888 billion yuan, 34.934 billion yuan, and 15.628 billion yuan, respectively, with the petrochemical segment facing short-term pressure [19][20] - The company’s management reforms have led to improved cost control and resource allocation efficiency, which is expected to enhance future performance [19][20] Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - The company reported continuous high growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 56.61% [23][24] - The company’s polishing liquid sales increased by 38.23% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor market [24][25] New Energy Industry: Huayou Cobalt - The company achieved a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.59%, with a revenue growth of 29.57% [26][27] - The company is advancing its integrated layout with ongoing project developments in nickel and lithium production [26][27] Food and Beverage Industry: Anjii Food - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by product innovation and channel expansion [28][29] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and cost control, maintaining stable profitability despite rising raw material costs [29][30] Social Services Industry: Changbai Mountain - The company experienced a 6.99% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in tourist numbers during the peak season [31][32] - External transportation upgrades and internal project developments are expected to enhance future growth prospects [32] Electronics Industry: Feiliwa - The company is investing in expanding its quartz electronic fabric production capacity to meet the growing demand for high-end PCB materials [33][34] - The demand for quartz electronic fabric is expected to increase due to advancements in Ethernet switch chip technology [34][35]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.51% on November 28, with Phoenix Shipping leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Phoenix Shipping (000520) closed at 4.94, with an increase of 8.33% and a trading volume of 784,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 381 million yuan [1] - Haitong Development (603162) saw a closing price of 12.19, up 6.93%, with a trading volume of 646,000 shares [1] - Xiamen Port Authority (000905) closed at 10.81, up 6.08%, with a trading volume of 404,300 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Xingtong Co. (603209) with a 4.00% increase and Haixia Co. (002320) with a 3.09% increase [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 318 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 297 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was concentrated in stocks like Haitong Development and Zhongyuan Marine Energy, with significant net inflows of 107 million yuan and 74 million yuan respectively [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a net outflow in several stocks, including Phoenix Shipping and Haixia Co. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% on November 26, with China Merchants Energy leading the losses. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping and port sector saw a mixed performance among individual stocks, with notable gainers such as Haitong Development, which increased by 10.05% to a closing price of 12.16 [1]. - Conversely, China Merchants Tire led the declines with a drop of 2.26%, closing at 8.65 [2]. - The overall trading volume in the shipping and port sector was significant, with Haitong Development achieving a trading volume of 170,000 shares and a transaction value of 202 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net inflow of 143 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 133 million yuan [2]. - Major stocks like Haitong Development and AnTung Holdings had varying capital flows, with Haitong Development experiencing a net outflow of 88.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3]. - The capital flow data indicates a trend where institutional investors are more active compared to retail investors, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market [2][3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the dry bulk shipping market, particularly for Capesize vessels, with freight rates expected to rise further based on the second half of 2025 [3][10] - The West Simandou iron ore project is highlighted as a key catalyst, expected to disrupt the current iron ore supply dominance of Australia and Brazil, with a projected increase in global iron ore demand by approximately 6.8% post full production [3][10] Shipping Industry Overview - The shipping industry is projected to experience a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited supply growth and potential demand increases due to various factors, including the West Simandou project and macroeconomic conditions [8][12] - The total market capitalization of the shipping sector is reported at 579.568 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 458.746 billion yuan [4] Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to benefit from a global oil production increase, sanctions improving demand structure, and supply constraints, leading to a sustained upward trend in market conditions [6][9] - VLCC freight rates have shown significant strength, with the TD3C route recording a rate of $126,000 per day on November 13, 2025, and an average rate of $104,000 per day for November [6][15] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market is recovering, with the BDI index averaging 1997 points, indicating a near five-year high, driven by improved demand for iron ore and coal [6][44] - Supply growth for dry bulk vessels is limited, with Capesize orders at only 9.32%, leading to projected capacity growth rates of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.6% for 2025-2027 [10][49] Container Shipping - The container shipping market in Asia remains tight, with a significant portion of new orders focused on ultra-large container ships, while smaller vessels face aging issues [11][68] - Despite a year-on-year decline in freight rates, the Asian container shipping market is expected to maintain demand above industry growth levels due to regional economic growth [11][68] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for oil shipping, and Haitong Development and China Merchants Industry for dry bulk shipping, citing favorable supply-demand dynamics [12][68] - For container shipping, it suggests focusing on Jinjiang Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics, while keeping an eye on Hapag-Lloyd International [12][68]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.18% on November 25, with China Merchants Energy leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12777.31, up 1.53% [1] Shipping and Port Sector Performance - Xiamen Port Authority saw the highest increase, closing at 10.59 with a rise of 4.96% and a trading volume of 330,600 shares, amounting to 345 million yuan [1] - Haitong Development and Strait Shares also reported gains of 2.03% and 1.62%, respectively, with closing prices of 11.05 and 12.54 [1] - Conversely, several companies in the sector, such as Zhi Shang Tire and China Merchants Energy, reported declines of 1.99% and 0.71%, with closing prices of 8.85 and 12.59 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 145 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 358 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from institutional investors included Rizhao Port with 39.62 million yuan and China Merchants South Oil with 34.46 million yuan [3] - In contrast, retail investors showed significant outflows from companies like Rizhao Port and Ningbo Port, with outflows of 38.41 million yuan and 26.07 million yuan, respectively [3]

November 24, 2025 09:55 PM GMT Shipping Geopolitics Playbook: Winter 2025 Edition Key geopolitical dynamics in focus: Gaza cease-fire and Red Sea rerouting; Russia-Ukraine war and potential peace deal; US-China trade tensions and supply-chain shifts; and IMO decarbonization. Gaza cease-fire: End to Red Sea rerouting would be a negative for container shipping: The potential end of Red Sea rerouting remains the major overhang on container shipping fundamentals, having eroded ~10% of effective capacity. Oversu ...

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on November 24, with Haixia Co. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Shipping and Port Sector Performance - The following companies showed notable performance: - Zhiyang Shipping (601872) closed at 9.03, up 2.96% with a trading volume of 1.39 million shares and a transaction value of 1.266 billion [1] - Shenghang Co. (001205) closed at 17.02, up 2.96% with a trading volume of 36,300 shares and a transaction value of 61.37 million [1] - COSCO Energy (600026) closed at 12.68, up 2.34% with a trading volume of 503,600 shares [1] - Conversely, Haixia Co. (002320) led the decline, closing at 12.34, down 5.08% with a trading volume of 784,700 shares and a transaction value of 26.596 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 107 million in main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 66.47 million [2] - The following companies had significant capital flow: - Zhiyang Shipping (601872) had a main fund net inflow of 58.798 million, while retail investors had a net inflow of 623.05 thousand [3] - COSCO Energy (600026) experienced a main fund net inflow of 54.765 million, but a net outflow from retail investors of 4.178 million [3] - Shanghai Port Group (600018) had a main fund net inflow of 36.369 million, with a net outflow from retail investors of 2.681 million [3]

Group 1 - Eight central enterprises have undergone changes in external director positions as reported by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on November 24 [1] - Duan Hongyi is no longer serving as an external director for China National Nuclear Corporation [2] - Pan Qilong has been appointed as an external director for China Shipbuilding Group Corporation, while Wu Xiandong is no longer serving in this role [2] Group 2 - Cao Guangxiang is no longer serving as an external director for China Electronics Technology Group Corporation [3] - Chen Bi and Li Xinhua have been appointed as external directors for China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, while Wu Xiandong is no longer serving in this role [3] - Hu Zhanghong has been appointed as an external director for China Baowu Steel Group Corporation [4] Group 3 - Wang Yongqing and Wu Aihong (female) have been appointed as external directors for Sinochem Holdings Corporation, while Wu Shengyue is no longer serving in this role [5] - Wu Shengyue is no longer serving as an external director for China General Technology (Group) Holding [6] - Wu Xiandong is no longer serving as an external director for China Merchants Group [7]

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a slight increase of 0.03% as of November 24, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Bomeike (603727) up 5.58% and China Merchants Energy (601872) up 4.68% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 0.26%, with the latest price at 1.14 yuan [1] - The index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the demand from oil-producing countries remains focused on value rather than volume, suggesting that OPEC+ may sacrifice prices in the short term to gain market share [1] - The Brent crude oil price is expected to be supported around $60 per barrel due to pressures for rebalancing and the impact of North American shale oil costs, particularly before the acceleration of global energy transition and increased supply from South America [1] - High-dividend energy leading companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as growth in natural gas business, may present investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China National Petroleum (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 65.09% of the index [2]