Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The report highlights a diversified business growth outlook, particularly optimistic about the oil transportation market's upward trend in 2025 [5][10] - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.6% to 5.11 billion yuan [5][10] - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the dry bulk shipping sector, with a significant net profit increase of 72.2% year-on-year [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 61.1% to 1.74 billion yuan [5][6] Oil Transportation - The average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) was $39,239 per day in 2024, a decline of 20.5% year-on-year, yet the company's VLCC fleet outperformed the industry average [6][7] - Revenue from oil transportation was 9.21 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% and 14.5% respectively [6] Dry Bulk Transportation - Supported by increased imports and longer shipping distances, the Cape-sized bulk carrier earnings rose by 58%, with the company achieving a revenue of 7.94 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, marking increases of 11.7% and 72.2% respectively [6][10] Container Transportation - The container shipping market saw demand growth and tight supply, leading to a significant rise in freight rates, although the company's revenue from this segment slightly decreased by 1.9% to 5.43 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 50.5% to 1.31 billion yuan [6][10] Future Outlook - The oil transportation market is expected to remain strong due to OPEC+ exiting voluntary production cuts and ongoing sanctions against Iran and Venezuela [7][10] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to balance upward, with freight rates expected to gradually increase [8][10] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.73 billion yuan, 29.33 billion yuan, and 30.32 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 6.36 billion yuan, 7.36 billion yuan, and 7.89 billion yuan [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872) with a target price of 9.71 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the dry bulk and container shipping sectors is expected to increase significantly in 2024, offsetting the pressure on oil transportation. The overall profitability is projected to continue growing, with a focus on the timing for contrarian investments [2][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.1 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. The multi-segment layout continues to demonstrate its advantages [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 25,881 million CNY - 2024A: 25,799 million CNY (down 0.3%) - 2025E: 30,296 million CNY (up 17.4%) [4] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2023A: 4,837 million CNY - 2024A: 5,107 million CNY (up 5.6%) - 2025E: 5,623 million CNY (up 10.1%) [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.59 CNY - 2024A: 0.63 CNY - 2025E: 0.69 CNY [4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 13.1% - 2024A: 12.8% - 2025E: 13.0% [4] Market Data - **Current Price**: 6.38 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 51,957 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 6.19 - 9.83 CNY [5] Segment Performance - **Oil Transportation**: - Net profit expected to decline by 15% due to geopolitical pressures and increased production from Iran, with average TCE rates remaining stable [11]. - **Dry Bulk**: - Net profit projected to increase by 72%, with overall supply and demand remaining favorable despite fluctuations [11]. - **Container Shipping**: - Net profit expected to rise by 51%, driven by capacity expansion and the pursuit of high-value routes [11]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that the oil transportation supply-demand dynamics may improve, with potential upside from falling oil prices and inventory replenishment opportunities. The company is also focusing on shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% in 2025 [11].

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025[013] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价方式回购公司股份的进展公告 1 重要内容提示： 回购方案首次披露日 2024/10/18 回购方案实施期限 自公司股东大会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月 内 预计回购金额 2.22 亿元（含）—4.43 亿元（含） 回购用途 √减少注册资本 □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 □用于转换公司可转债 □为维护公司价值及股东权益 累计已回购股数 5,560.22 万股 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 0.68% 累计已回购金额 36,182.69 万元 实际回购价格区间 6.18 元/股—7.05 元/股 公司以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议案》。公司于 2024 年 11 月 7 日披露了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告书》， 本次回购金额不低于人民币 2.22 亿元（含），不超过人民币 4.43 亿 元（含），回购股份全部用于注销并减少注册资本。具体内容详见公 司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上披露的相关公告。 二、回购股份的进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter revenue of 6.503 billion yuan, down 5.18% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 1.738 billion yuan, up 61.14% year-on-year [3] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 5.015 billion yuan, a growth of 8.07% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter figure of 1.727 billion yuan, up 68.87% year-on-year [3] - The company’s cargo volume in 2024 was 199 million tons, a decrease of 0.17% year-on-year, while the turnover volume increased by 11.01% year-on-year to 1.12 trillion ton-nautical miles, benefiting from a higher proportion of long-haul routes for bulk carriers [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved total revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 0.32% [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 28.4%, with a net profit margin of 19.8% [5] - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 27.650 billion, 28.735 billion, and 29.446 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7.17%, 3.93%, and 2.47% [6] Segment Performance - The oil tanker segment maintained a leading position with a fleet of 52 VLCCs and 8 Aframax vessels, although revenue decreased by 4.82% year-on-year to 9.206 billion yuan in 2024 [3][6] - The dry bulk shipping segment saw a significant net profit increase of 72.24% year-on-year, with total revenue of 7.940 billion yuan in 2024 [6] - The container shipping segment reported a net profit increase of 50.58% year-on-year, with total revenue of 5.434 billion yuan in 2024 [6] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.055 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 18.56% year-on-year increase, with projected EPS of 0.74 yuan [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 8.58, 7.96, and 7.73, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter revenue of 6.503 billion yuan, down 5.18% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter net profit of 1.738 billion yuan, up 61.14% year-on-year [3] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.015 billion yuan, a growth of 8.07% year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter figure of 1.727 billion yuan, up 68.87% year-on-year [3] - The company’s cargo volume in 2024 was 199 million tons, a decrease of 0.17% year-on-year, while the turnover volume increased by 11.01% year-on-year to 1.12 trillion ton-nautical miles, benefiting from a higher proportion of long-haul routes for bulk carriers and improved vessel loading rates [3] - The company maintains the world's largest VLCC fleet, consisting of 52 VLCCs (16.11 million deadweight tons) and 8 Aframax vessels (0.5358 million deadweight tons) [3] - The financial performance of the VLCC segment showed a revenue of 9.206 billion yuan, down 4.82% year-on-year, and a segment net profit of 2.635 billion yuan, down 14.52% year-on-year [3] - The dry bulk shipping segment achieved a net profit growth of 72.24% year-on-year, with a fleet of 93 vessels (18.5595 million deadweight tons) [3][4] - The container shipping segment saw a net profit increase of 50.58% year-on-year, with a fleet of 19 vessels (0.424 million deadweight tons, 30,500 TEU capacity) [6] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.650 billion yuan, 28.735 billion yuan, and 29.446 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.17%, 3.93%, and 2.47% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 6.055 billion yuan, 6.528 billion yuan, and 6.723 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 18.56%, 7.81%, and 2.99% respectively [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.74 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.83 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 8.58, 7.96, and 7.73 for the same years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a projected revenue growth for the company, with expected revenues increasing from 25,799 million RMB in 2024 to 30,229 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.19% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow significantly, from 5,107 million RMB in 2024 to 7,993 million RMB in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory with a peak growth rate of 26.03% in 2025 [5] - The report emphasizes the company's improving profitability metrics, with the return on equity (ROE) projected to reach 15.40% by 2026, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [5] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is reported at 51,957.48 million RMB, with a closing price of 6.38 RMB per share [3] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 70,619 million RMB in 2024 to 83,003 million RMB by 2027, indicating a solid asset base for future operations [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 42.16%, reflecting a moderate level of financial leverage [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.63 RMB in 2024 to 0.98 RMB in 2027, demonstrating strong earnings growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations due to better-than-expected performance in the container shipping segment [5][9] - The report highlights the strong performance in bulk shipping and the decline in breakeven points for oil tankers, indicating a robust growth platform supported by favorable market conditions [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 5.107 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.59% [5] - The breakdown of profits by segment shows: - Oil tanker transportation contributed a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan, down 14.52% year-on-year, with average VLCC market rates decreasing by 20.53% [6] - Bulk shipping net profit increased by 72.24% year-on-year to 1.548 billion yuan, driven by a 27.30% increase in the BDI index [6] - Container shipping net profit rose by 50.55% to 1.314 billion yuan, supported by a 42.17% increase in regional freight rates [6] - Roll-on/roll-off shipping net profit was 337 million yuan, up 26.58% year-on-year [6] - LNG shipping contributed a net profit of 604 million yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 28.610 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 6.501 billion yuan, representing a growth of 27.3% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in profitability, with a projected net profit of 8.915 billion yuan by 2027 [8] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 2.079 billion yuan for the year, which accounts for 40.70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [9] - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 5.4% if the dividend payout ratio remains consistent [9]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][8][27] Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the mid-term outlook for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) due to strong supply constraints and a return of demand in the regular market [5][8] - The company has shown resilience with a significant increase in net profit in Q4, indicating strong operational performance [3][4][7] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 25.8 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while Q4 revenue was 6.5 billion RMB, down 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The net profit for the year was 5.1 billion RMB, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit reaching 1.74 billion RMB, up 61.1% year-on-year and 99.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.08 billion RMB, representing a payout ratio of 40.7% [3] Segment Performance - In the oil transportation segment, Q4 revenue was 2.22 billion RMB, down 8.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 570 million RMB, down 22% year-on-year but up 49% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The dry bulk shipping segment saw Q4 revenue of 1.87 billion RMB, down 4.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 240 million RMB, down 27% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The container shipping segment experienced a significant profit increase in Q4, with revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year, but net profit surged to 840 million RMB, up 257% year-on-year and 263% quarter-on-quarter [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [8][9] - The report highlights the company's valuation attractiveness, suggesting a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on a 40% payout ratio [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 10.40 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.8 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.1 billion RMB, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The diversified business model has contributed to stable profit growth [1]. - For 2025, the company is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical events, leading to a rise in oil transportation prices. The dry bulk segment is anticipated to see price increases due to a recovery in macro demand, while container shipping prices are expected to remain stable [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - In 2024, the company's oil transportation business net profit was 2.64 billion RMB, down 14.5% year-on-year due to weak global demand and OPEC+ production cuts. However, the company adjusted its route layout, outperforming market indices [2]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the gradual increase in OPEC+ production is expected to boost oil transportation demand [2]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The net profit for the dry bulk transportation business in 2024 was 1.41 billion RMB, up 57.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from 2023. The dry bulk market showed stable demand with a 27.3% increase in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) year-on-year [3]. - For 2025, a marginal improvement in domestic demand and potential growth in overseas markets are expected to drive further increases in dry bulk transportation prices [3]. Container Shipping - The container shipping business achieved a net profit of 1.31 billion RMB in 2024, a 50.6% increase year-on-year, driven by price increases from rerouting around the Red Sea. The ongoing geopolitical situation is expected to keep container shipping profits stable in 2025 [4]. - The LNG shipping business reported a net profit of 600 million RMB, benefiting from long-term lease agreements, while the roll-on/roll-off shipping segment saw a net profit of 340 million RMB, up 8.2% year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 6.64 billion RMB and 6.37 billion RMB, respectively, and has introduced a new forecast for 2027 at 6.23 billion RMB. The target price has been raised by 4% to 10.4 RMB based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.9x for 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for 2024, with revenue slightly declining while net profit showed growth, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 25.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; Q4 revenue was 6.5 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the year was 5.11 billion, an increase of 5.6%; Q4 net profit was 1.74 billion, up 61.1% year-on-year and 99.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring net profit for the year was 5.02 billion, up 8.1%; Q4 non-recurring net profit was 1.73 billion, an increase of 68.9% year-on-year and 104.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Total cash dividends for the year amounted to 2.08 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.7%, increasing to approximately 43.3% when including share buybacks [1] Oil Transportation - In Q4, VLCC revenue significantly outperformed the industry, with oil transportation revenue at 2.22 billion, down 8.5% year-on-year; net profit was 570 million, a decrease of 22% year-on-year but an increase of 49% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's VLCC fleet TCE outperformed the index, with a year-on-year decrease of about 10% and a slight reduction in effective operating days [1] Market Outlook - The demand for VLCC in the second half of 2024 is expected to be subdued due to OPEC's production cuts and weak demand from Chinese refineries, leading to an overall weak cargo volume [2] - The outlook for VLCC remains positive due to strong supply constraints and a potential recovery in demand as global inventories are low and new refineries in China come online [2] - The tightening of sanctions on non-compliant trade from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia may benefit the formal market, increasing demand expectations [3] Dry Bulk Shipping - In Q4, dry bulk revenue was 1.87 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year; net profit was 240 million, a decrease of 27% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The BDI index increased by 27% year-on-year, driven by active long-distance exports despite a decrease in iron ore shipments [3] - The mid-term outlook for dry bulk shipping remains positive due to a slowdown in supply growth and moderate demand increases [4] Container Shipping - In Q4, container shipping revenue was 1.38 billion, down 7%; net profit was 840 million, an increase of 257% year-on-year and 263% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company capitalized on the Q4 peak season in the Asian market, increasing capacity significantly [4] Roll-on/Roll-off Shipping - In Q4, revenue from roll-on/roll-off shipping was 510 million, down 12%; net profit was 90 million, an increase of 80% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [5] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2026 is 6.48 billion and 7.66 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 8.18 billion, corresponding to current PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [5] - The company’s valuation is considered attractive, leading to an upgrade in the rating from "recommend" to "strongly recommend" based on optimistic mid-term outlooks for oil and dry bulk shipping [5]