行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航运港口 2025 年 10 月 12 日 中国对美船舶征收港口费，油散混 乱加剧或迎机会，关注中国造船是 否豁免 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 联系人 张慧 (8621)23297818× zhanghui@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 看好 ——中国反制美国 301 法案，对美船舶收取港口费点评 相关研究 《落地力度减弱，利好小型船舶，造船市 场情绪有望修复——美国海事船舶 301 法 案点评》 2025/04/19 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 事件：10 月 10 日，交通运输部发布《关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告》， 10 月 14 日起，对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费。 ⚫ 征收对 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Fortune Sustainable Development Summit was successfully held in Fuzhou, focusing on the theme "Intelligent Era, Intelligent Coexistence" and gathering nearly 200 global business leaders, policymakers, and academic experts to explore sustainable development paths empowered by technology [1] Group 1: Key Themes and Discussions - The summit featured 40 speakers from various sectors including AI, internet, manufacturing, new energy, finance, and health, discussing how smart technologies can accelerate growth while avoiding excessive environmental consumption [1] - Key topics included the social responsibilities of multinational companies in a fragmented geopolitical landscape and the protection of human creativity and development rights in an algorithm-driven era [1] Group 2: ESG Practices and Globalization - Companies are encouraged to ensure that suppliers meeting ESG standards will gain more orders and global opportunities, highlighting the competitive edge of Chinese suppliers in quality, cost, and delivery [6] - The urgency for green and low-carbon transformation in the chemical industry is emphasized, aligning with national dual carbon goals and the increasing demand for green materials from international brand clients [6] Group 3: Sustainable Consumption and Corporate Responsibility - The importance of circular economy practices is highlighted, where manufacturers must innovate in product design and lifecycle management, while consumers are also encouraged to participate in sustainable practices [30] - The wine industry is recognized as a participant in environmental practices, emphasizing the necessity of establishing a good ecological environment as a fundamental requirement [33] Group 4: Financial Instruments and ESG Integration - Green financial products like green bonds are seen as a driving force for companies to integrate international ESG concepts into their development, effectively addressing regulatory challenges and attracting international capital [41] - Companies are advised to balance production activities with ecological diversity protection, ensuring that sustainable financial tools align with their sustainability goals [45] Group 5: Technological Innovations in ESG - The application of cutting-edge technologies such as AI and big data is crucial for enhancing ESG management, transitioning from compliance to data-driven value creation [62] - Companies are encouraged to leverage technology to improve operational efficiency and sustainability, with a focus on accurate and transparent data for ESG disclosures [68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 1.68% on October 10, with HNA Technology leading the gains, while the overall market indices, Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, saw declines of 0.94% and 2.7% respectively [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1]. - The shipping and port sector stocks showed varied performance, with HNA Technology closing at 4.93, up 8.83% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - HNA Technology (600751) led the sector with a closing price of 4.93 and a trading volume of 1.47 million shares, resulting in a transaction value of 710 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included: - Haixia Co. (002320) at 10.73, up 5.51% with a transaction value of 838 million yuan [1]. - Shen Cishen (600026) at 12.22, up 4.18% with a transaction value of 742 million yuan [1]. - China Merchants Shipping (601872) at 8.67, up 4.08% with a transaction value of 1.02 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 182 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 155 million yuan [2]. - The main stocks with significant capital inflow included: - HNA Technology with a net inflow of 49.32 million yuan [3]. - Haixia Co. with a net inflow of 45.18 million yuan [3]. - China Merchants Shipping with a net inflow of 43.99 million yuan [3].

证券之星消息，10月9日航运港口板块较上一交易日上涨0.09%，中远海发领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。航运港口板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601866 | 中远海发 | 2.61 | 2.76% | 124.92万 | | 3.23亿 | | 601326 | 奏港股份 | 3.45 | 1.77% | 26.27万 | | 9018.52万 | | 601880 | 辽港股份 | 1.77 | 1.72% | 145.56万 | | 2.58亿 | | 601298 | 黄明恤 | 8.51 | 1.55% | 1 20.65万 | | 1.74亿 | | 000582 | 北部潛港 | 8.55 | 1.54% | 17.79万 | | 1.51亿 | | 600018 | 上港集团 | 5.53 | 1.47% | 53.49万 | | 2.94亿 | | ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) - **Industry**: Shipping, specifically focusing on oil and bulk cargo transportation - **Market Position**: Established global leader in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) and VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier) sectors, with oil and bulk transportation contributing over 60% of revenue and 90% of total capacity [2][4] Core Business Insights - **Revenue Contribution**: Oil and bulk transportation accounted for over 60% of revenue and more than 90% of total capacity since 2018 [2][4] - **Fleet Size**: As of 2024, the company owns 221 vessels, with over 150 dedicated to oil and bulk transportation [2][4] - **Profit Stability**: Since 2020, gross profit has remained between 5 billion to 7 billion CNY, and net profit has been between 3.6 billion to 5 billion CNY [2][5] Business Model and Strategy - **Operating Model**: Primarily operates in the spot market for bulk commodity shipping, supplemented by long-term contracts with companies like Vale to ensure stable income [2][5] - **Diversification**: Engages in container shipping, LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation, and roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) shipping, enhancing profit resilience [2][6] - **Future Growth Areas**: LNG and RoRo shipping are identified as key growth areas, with expectations of significant profit contributions from these segments [2][6][8] Market Dynamics - **Oil Transportation Demand**: Future demand for oil transportation is expected to be driven by OPEC and non-OPEC production increases, with OPEC's production currently at 1.8 to 1.9 million barrels per day [10][12] - **Bulk Shipping Supply and Demand**: The bulk shipping market faces supply constraints due to aging fleets and environmental regulations, while demand is bolstered by increased exports of bauxite and iron ore [11][14] - **Impact of Economic Factors**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are anticipated to increase dollar liquidity, potentially driving up commodity prices and benefiting shipping markets [15] Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: The shipping industry is exposed to risks from macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and changes in environmental regulations [16] - **Market Volatility**: Fluctuations in oil prices and shipping demand due to geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could impact operations [10][17] Conclusion - **Outlook**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Company is well-positioned in the shipping industry, with a diversified portfolio and strong market presence. The company is expected to continue performing well in the current market environment, although it must navigate various risks related to macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical developments [17]

Core Viewpoint - The event "I am a Shareholder" organized by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and other institutions aims to enhance communication between listed companies and investors, promoting rational, value, and long-term investment in the market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy Transportation Company (招商轮船, 601872) was established in 1872, making it the first national industrial enterprise in modern China, with a mission to revitalize national shipping rights [2][3] - The company was listed on the A-share market in 2006, symbolizing a new starting point for its century-old shipping legacy [2] Group 2: Recent Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.125 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to high-quality growth [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.70 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 565 million yuan, which represents 41.22% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5] Group 3: Fleet and Operations - By the end of 2024, the company will operate and manage 349 vessels with a total deadweight of 49.49 million tons, ranking second among non-financial shipowners globally [6] - The company has the largest fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOC) in the world, with its dry bulk and LNG fleets also ranking among the top globally [6] Group 4: ESG and Future Strategy - The company emphasizes its commitment to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives, aiming to become a growth-oriented shipping platform while adopting advanced energy-saving technologies and exploring alternative materials for energy transition [7] - The management highlighted the importance of AI technology and large models in enhancing operational efficiency and smart capabilities in shipping [7]

Group 1: Oil Shipping - The fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for oil shipping, with freight rates expected to rise starting in October [2][3] - Current freight rates reflect tight supply levels, and the demand for oil products in the Northern Hemisphere winter typically lasts for three months [1][2] - OPEC+ is expected to continue small production increases in October, contributing to sustained demand for shipping [1][2] Group 2: Near Coastal and Domestic Shipping - After the National Day holiday, freight rates for near coastal and domestic shipping are anticipated to gradually increase [3] - The near coastal shipping market has improved supply-demand dynamics this year, with no new supply of small vessels and aging fleets causing efficiency losses [3] - Increased cargo volumes between Southeast Asia and China, Japan, and South Korea are expected to support demand growth [3] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - Historical data suggests that the BDI index typically rises in September and early October due to increased demand for grain shipments [4] - The post-holiday rush effect is likely to drive freight rates up after the National Day holiday, although rates may decline after the peak grain shipping period [4] - Winter energy demand is expected to boost transportation needs for coal and iron ore, leading to a potential rise in freight rates in late November [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company sees potential investment opportunities in the shipping sector due to ongoing supply tightness and marginal demand improvements [5] - Specific companies highlighted for potential growth include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975), Seaspan Corporation (01308), and Zhonggu Logistics (603565) [5]

Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing high volatility in crude oil freight rates while container shipping rates on long-distance routes are declining [3] - The first hybrid tilt-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle (eVTOL) model has been accepted for application by the Southwest Civil Aviation Administration, and a collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Ehang is set to launch autonomous flying vehicles and air taxi services [3] - China's first national standard for logistics enterprise digitization has been officially released, and the "parallel port" logistics model has achieved a throughput of over 76,000 tons in its first year of operation [3] Shipping Industry - As of September 25, the China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 1908.03 points, a decrease of 3.4% from September 18 [3] - The VLCC market in the Middle East is seeing a slowdown in cargo availability, while the Atlantic and Gulf routes remain relatively calm [3] - The shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe and the U.S. have decreased, with rates to Europe at $971/TEU (down 7.7%) and to the U.S. West and East coasts at $1460/FEU (down 10.8%) and $2385/FEU (down 6.7%) respectively [3] Aviation Industry - The first hybrid tilt-rotor eVTOL model application has been accepted, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation sector [3] - Saudi Arabia's Front End and Cluster2Airports are collaborating with Ehang to introduce autonomous flying vehicles and air taxi services [3] Logistics and New Transportation Models - The national standard for logistics enterprise digitization was released on September 26, focusing on general requirements [3] - The "parallel port" logistics model has been operational for one year, achieving a throughput of 76.61 million tons and 37,000 standard containers [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the equipment and manufacturing export chain are recommended for attention, including COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [6] - Opportunities related to the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream are highlighted, with a focus on Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulmin Transportation [6] - The low-altitude economy and highway-railway sectors are also suggested for investment, with specific companies recommended for consideration [7]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates are fluctuating at high levels while container shipping rates on long-distance routes are declining [3][14] - The first hybrid tilt-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle (eVTOL) model has been accepted for certification by the Southwest Regional Administration of Civil Aviation of China, and a collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Ehang is planned to launch autonomous aerial vehicles and air taxi services [3][16] - China's first national standard for logistics enterprise digitization has been officially released, and the "Parallel Port" logistics model has achieved a cargo throughput of over 760,000 tons in its first year of operation [3][24] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are experiencing high volatility, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported at 1908.03 points, down 3.4% from September 18 [3][14] - Container shipping rates are declining, with the Shanghai port export rate to Europe at $971/TEU, down 7.7%, and to the US West and East coasts at $1460/FEU and $2385/FEU, down 10.8% and 6.7% respectively [3][15] - The DF600 unmanned aerial vehicle has received certification acceptance, marking a significant step in the eVTOL sector [3][16] - The "Parallel Port" logistics model has successfully handled 760,000 tons of cargo, significantly improving logistics efficiency [3][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices remain stable, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4516.00 points, down 6.6% year-on-year [4][26] - Domestic freight volumes for August 2025 increased by 12.29% year-on-year, with total express delivery volume reaching 16.15 billion pieces [4][50] - The shipping market shows a mixed trend, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 2259 points, up 2.54% week-on-week [4][44] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by hydropower station construction in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream area, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulimin Transportation [5] - Opportunities in the low-altitude economy sector, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Guangdong Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - The cruise and water ferry sector is highlighted, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities are recommended, including SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Shares [5] - Opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]