Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% on January 23, with China Merchants Energy leading the drop. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to close at 4136.16, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% to 14439.66 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tangshan Port (601000) saw a closing price of 4.20, with a gain of 3.96% and a trading volume of 888,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 369 million [1]. - Guangzhou Port (601228) closed at 3.75, up by 3.88%, with a trading volume of 589,400 shares and a transaction value of 218 million [1]. - China Merchants Energy (601872) closed at 10.81, down by 2.26%, with a trading volume of 945,200 shares and a transaction value of 1.029 billion [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 377 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 332 million [2]. - Major stocks like AnTung Holdings (600179) had a net inflow of 32.5 million from main funds, while Xiamen Port (000905) saw a net inflow of 24.1 million [3]. - Guangzhou Port (601228) had a net inflow of 17.3 million from main funds, but also experienced a net outflow of 8.9 million from retail investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

Core Viewpoint - The current spot freight rates are influenced by several core factors, including demand per ton-mile, effective capacity supply, immediate market trends, and market sentiment between cargo and vessel parties [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Freight Rates - Demand per ton-mile is a primary factor affecting freight pricing [1] - Effective capacity supply plays a crucial role in determining freight rates [1] - Immediate market trends, whether upward or downward momentum, significantly impact pricing [1] - Market sentiment, reflecting the psychology of both cargo and vessel parties, is also a key influence [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market environment is favorable for shipowners and capacity holders [1]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网1月21日讯 ，招商轮船在接受调研者提问时表示，目前看，2026年对公司影响最大的还是油 轮板块，预计业绩弹性较大。干散货市场方面，从年初淡季市场表现和运费期货市场看，好望角船型有 望是今年主要亮点，公司干散货板块力争积极抓住市场机会。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网1月21日讯 ，招商轮船在接受调研者提问时表示，部分热点地区原油供应和贸易的变化对油 轮市场的影响较为复杂。比如如果重质油供应持续减少，国内炼厂可能通过其他石油来源采购相应油 品，会体现在运输需求的结构性调整，有可能带来长程合规需求的增加。建议持续关注相关市场的变 化，春节后预计会更为明朗。 ...

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，2026年VLCC等油轮运价波动 预计会较2025年更加剧烈，诸多结构性问题和短期供需不平衡可能导致现货运价短期出现大幅波动。目 前看，今年油轮市场的景气程度有望比2025年提升，改善动力预计来自合规市场需求的结构性增长，运 力端如果出现有效整合将有望进一步助力景气提升。2026年初，公司看到地缘风险的上升，亚洲原油进 口的长程化继续、印度减少部分地区原油进口、石油储备需求增加等均可能推动运价上行。另外近期韩 国船东Sinokor等行业玩家的动向值得高度关注，有可能导致VLCC油轮市场集中度的进一步提升和运作 模式的变化，对油轮市场供给结构、运费形成机制等均会产生重大影响，中长期影响也可能被市场低 估，从公司的角度看，目前这个变化似乎还没有引起大家足够重视。总体来看，需求方面，今年不论是 全球原油消费或储备需求并不悲观，预计整体需求有所提升，原油海运需求通常会好于原油需求增速； 供给方面，总体偏紧的情况持续，市场上实际可用的有效运力增长预计缓慢。 ...

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司一直采用比较灵活的策 略，在做好市场经营的基础上不排除适时处置少量老旧船舶，同时争取租入运力补充(前期有披露，去 年已经有成功尝试联合石油公司期租租入一艘VLCC)，如之前相关公告披露，公司也已经锁定了8艘 VLCC订单(5艘自有和3艘长期租入)将在2027至2028年交付，未来几年老旧油轮的更新正按公司船队既 定部署推进。 ...

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，2025年12月中旬起运费从11 万-12万美元一路暴跌至最低3万美元，公司理解除了节日因素，至少有几方面负面因素共振导致：一是 印度12月从来自大西洋盆地的原油采购节奏放缓；二是国内增加民营炼厂原油进口配额消化了部分浮 仓；三是12月中东VLCC货盘实际数量明显少于市场预期，而船位在中东积聚导致短期供需失衡，多种 因素叠加导致现货运价大幅下跌；另外不排除有部分玩家期现联动制造波动的情况。12月下旬的跌幅跌 速超过大部分人预期，但没有影响船东信心和油轮市场基本面。 ...