西南证券发布研报称，2025年轻工板块业绩平淡，顺周期及传统制造估值承压，包装、出口、个护板块 表现分化。2026年重点关注四条主线：1）低估值顺周期（如造纸）迎底部反转；2）需求强、产能布局 优的出口标的；3）国货个护品牌持续成长；4）AI眼镜、新型烟草等新消费赛道延续高景气。 推荐标的：太阳纸业、博汇纸业、稳健医疗、百亚股份、诺邦股份、依依股份、梦百合、顾家家居。 风险提示：地产竣工不及预期的风险；终端需求疲弱的风险；原材料价格波动的风险；汇率波动的风 险。 回顾2025年，在业绩表现相对平淡的背景下，轻工板块中传统顺周期和传统制造公司的估值依然受到压 制。而包装印刷等板块受益于提价落地（金属包装）和跨界转型等因素，股价表现较好。出口板块在关 税政策扰动下出现一定程度分化，其中多产能布局均衡、需求韧性强、受关税影响小的标的表现较好。 个护板块在上半年有超额收益，下半年受电商渠道竞争加剧的影响，进入估值消化期，但国货品牌受益 于产品结构优化和渠道扩张，中长期成长逻辑有望持续兑现。 2026年选股思路 一方面关注低估顺周期资产在大宗周期变化下估值修复，逐步兑现配置价值；另一方面不断平衡新消费 及出口板块的估值 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on emotional consumption trends and reassessing cyclical value in the light of the 2026 investment strategy for the light industry sector [1][3]. 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [4]. - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that had balanced production capacity and strong demand performing better. The personal care sector saw excess returns in the first half of the year but faced valuation digestion in the second half due to intensified e-commerce competition [4][5]. - The report suggests a dual focus for stock selection in 2026: on one hand, to pay attention to undervalued cyclical assets for valuation recovery; on the other hand, to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors [4]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends four main lines for stock selection: 1. Gradually focus on undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and low channel inventory [4]. 2. Maintain a high allocation to export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities, especially those less affected by tariffs [4]. 3. Invest in high-quality domestic personal care brands benefiting from product structure optimization and channel expansion [4]. 4. Explore new consumption trends in categories like AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys, which are expected to see significant growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ) - Bohui Paper Industry (600966.SZ) - Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) - Mengbaihe (603313.SH) - Gujia Home (603816.SH) [4]. 2025 Sector Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the SW light industry manufacturing sector had an overall increase of 20.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points. The packaging and printing sector performed particularly well with a 35.4% increase [12]. - The report highlights that the packaging sector benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, while the home and entertainment sectors also saw significant gains [12][14]. Export Sector Insights - The report notes that from November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, leading to a gradual recovery in orders. The fluctuations in tariff policies had previously caused delays in orders from U.S. buyers [76]. - The report indicates that the export sector is expected to see a return to competitive pricing against ASEAN countries following the tariff adjustments, which may accelerate industry consolidation [76][81]. Personal Care Sector Trends - The personal care sector is experiencing product structure upgrades and channel benefits, with brands focusing on high-demand segments such as oral care and women's hygiene products [31][50]. - The report forecasts that the market for women's hygiene products will reach 1079.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [50][51]. Baby Care Market Dynamics - The baby care market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2029, with a focus on premiumization and specialized products to counteract declining birth rates [59][66]. - The report highlights that single-child consumption is increasing, which helps mitigate the impact of declining birth rates on the market [69].

牙膏2025社媒热度趋势及驱动因素 分析 扫码前往 Social Research 撰写机构：Social Agent | 报告⽇期：2026-01-04 0. 执⾏摘要 邀请好友送额度 扫描⼆维码获取专属的邀请链接 2025年⽛膏类⽬社交媒体热度趋势、驱动因素与消费者反馈研究 报告 2025年，⽛膏类⽬在中国社交媒体上展现出强劲的增⻓势头与深刻的结构性变迁。本报告通 过对主流社交平台的全年数据进⾏综合分析，揭⽰了社媒热度的核⼼驱动⼒、关键营销事件的 影响以及消费者反馈的深层变化。 核⼼洞察： 策略建议： 品牌应超越单纯的流量思维，构建以消费者为中⼼的营销策略。⼀⽅⾯，利⽤明 星效应实现短期引爆；另⼀⽅⾯，需在抖⾳等平台深耕内容，通过科普、⽣活技巧等⽅式建⽴ 以上内容由AI生成，仅供参考 热度⾼速增⻓： 2025年，⽛膏品类社交媒体声量同⽐增⻓⾼达 392% ，互动量同⽐ 增⻓ 36% [21] 。热度峰值主要由明星代⾔活动驱动，特别是在微博平台，9⽉由迪 丽热巴代⾔BOP引发的互动量（超1600万）和8⽉丁禹兮代⾔佳洁⼠引发的互动量 （超712万）共同构成了年度热度⾼峰 [5] 。 ✔ 平台⻆⾊分化： 微博 ...

就在BOP被罚的几乎同一时间，另一个网红牙膏品牌俊小白被上海市长宁区市场监管局立案调查。原因是宣称产品能"填补牙釉质裂纹"、"改善牙龈萎缩与 牙齿松动"。查询国家药监局官网，俊小白相关产品的备案信息里根本没有这些功效。从口腔医学角度看，牙釉质损伤不可逆，牙龈萎缩需要专业治疗，这 些都不是刷牙能解决的问题。 实则追溯牙膏行业的历史乱象来看，老牌国货冷酸灵此前也没能幸免。其直播间主播曾宣称牙膏可修复"牙齿松动、牙龈萎缩"，被指混淆了预防和治疗的概 念。部分直播平台，还有品牌把着色剂包装成"色修因子"用色素让牙齿看起来白。 早在2023年底，《牙膏监督管理办法》实施，牙膏正式纳入备案管理。2025年12月，国家药监局又发布《牙膏分类目录（征求意见稿）》，明确牙膏只能宣 称八类功效。如今来看，监管在收紧，但市场乱象还没消停。 近日，网红口腔护理品牌BOP（波普）的运营主体上海格芒生物科技有限公司（以下简称"格芒生物"）因在直播间虚假使用"人民日报推荐"字样，被上海市 场监管部门罚款4.8万元。 这已经是该品牌第二次因虚假宣传被罚，早在2024年8月，BOP就曾因在产品上写"三甲医院临床实证有效"、虚构"口腔医生专家认 ...

当消费端的需求变化，通过高效响应的制造新模式，推动供给侧适配消费新体验，一场关于口腔护理行 业的变革正在发生。 "过去，消费者关心能否刷干净，现在更关心适不适合、舒不舒服。牙膏行业更多的是'微创新'，我们 从口感、泡沫绵密度这些小细节着手，去改变'好牙膏'标准。"在口腔护理品牌参半的总部展厅内，小 阔集团董事长、参半创始人尹阔聊起了口腔护理行业的变革。 一支牙膏，从基础的清洁功能向精细体验的转变，背后是消费创新驱动下的"质造升级"。过去，一支牙 膏的功能往往局限于单一的清洁。如今，在市场需求的推动下，行业正步入体验感、功能化与场景化深 度融合的下半场，美白、抗敏、清新等细分功能越来越受到消费者青睐。 2025年11月，工业和信息化部等六部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方 案》。在业内看来，增强消费品供给能力，关键在于能否通过技术进步补齐体验短板。 当供需更适配，消费者对美好生活的向往便有了更具体的注脚。从需求洞察到实验室验证，再到生产环 节的控制与追溯，消费创新正点亮品质生活。 （文章来源：人民网） 尹阔认为，产品创新的本质应以消费者的真实使用场景作为出发点。相关细节处的创新，正成为 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, driven by external macroeconomic stabilization and internal demand adjustments, although the recovery will show differentiation among companies [5][6] - Investment strategies should focus on growth-oriented companies that are expanding overseas, as well as on the supply-side changes in the paper packaging sector and new consumer brands showing marginal improvements [5][6] Group 2: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is currently facing a downturn, with ongoing pressures from consumption and housing handovers, and limited benefits from national subsidies [13][19] - The market environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a focus on individual company performance, as the sector is significantly influenced by consumer sentiment and real estate policies [34][40] - The expected decline in new housing completions in 2026 is projected at 21%, which will continue to impact demand for home furnishings [34][40] Group 3: Essential Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods market is adapting to new dynamics, with established brands facing challenges from evolving channels and increased competition [52] - The growth potential in mature markets remains stable, but the overall consumption environment has weakened, leading to increased competition among leading brands [52][53] - New consumption trends are emerging from changes in consumer sentiment and technological innovations, which are reshaping market dynamics [52][53] Group 4: Light Industry Exports - The light industry export sector has shown strong growth among leading companies, despite fluctuations due to economic cycles and inventory levels [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth for top companies, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing trends such as capacity relocation and cost reduction [5][6] - The overall recovery in the light industry export sector is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on expanding product categories and niche markets [5][6] Group 5: Paper Packaging Sector - The paper packaging sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with stable pricing anticipated for cultural paper and improved profitability driven by demand from the consumer electronics and AI sectors [5][6] - The profitability of the paper industry is projected to stabilize, with key factors including supply-demand dynamics and cost efficiencies playing a crucial role [5][6] - Leading companies in the metal packaging sector are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and enhanced pricing power [5][6]

本报告导读： ODM 和自有品牌发展良好，公司业绩明显改善。 调整盈利预期 ，维持"增持"评级。考虑公司经营近况，我们调整公司盈利预期，预计2025-2027 年公司 EPS 0.90/1.32/1.73 元（2025-2026 年原值为1.42/1.77 元）。参考行业可比公司，考虑公司ODM业务稳定 增长、自有品牌线下业务实现扭亏为盈，叠加研发与技术突破带来的估值溢价，给予公司2025 年40X PE，给予目标价36.00元，维持"增持"评级。 毛利率稳中有升。2025 年前三季度公司归母净利率6.9%，同比+2.5pct；毛利率26.3%，同比+1.5ct。销 售费用率8.7%，同比+1.5pct；财务费用率1.1%，同比+0.1pct；管理费用率7.1%，同比-0.9pct；研发费 用率3.5%，同比-0.1pct。 收入和利润端显著改善。2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入11.19亿元，同比+18.8%，主要系口腔护理 产品销售增长影响；归母净利润0.77 亿元，同比+84.6%；扣非净利润0.72 亿元，同比+86.4%。。 风险提示：国际贸易关系变化，原材料价格波动。 公司形成以ODM 为主兼 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of China's economic planning, particularly the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing a shift in focus from macroeconomic statistics to industry-specific data and market dynamics [1][2][4] - The concept of "Made in China 2025" is highlighted as a significant goal for advancing manufacturing capabilities, with provinces like Henan exemplifying successful implementation through technological advancements in various industries [5][6] - The article contrasts China's long-term strategic planning with the short-term focus of U.S. policies, suggesting that China's ability to maintain consistent goals over decades is a key advantage [6][7] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer goods in the national economy, noting that approximately 1.75 million product categories exist, with 1.2 million directly facing consumers [29] - It points out the need for innovation in consumer products, suggesting that integrating advanced technologies into everyday items can lead to significant market opportunities [30][31] - The article also discusses the challenges faced by private enterprises in adapting to technological advancements and the need for a more connected approach between scientific innovation and market demands [23][26][42] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of vertical innovation in industries, suggesting that focusing on specific product categories can lead to breakthroughs and market leadership [36][37] - It mentions the potential for new consumer trends, such as the "T-shaped revolution," which aims to apply cutting-edge technology to ordinary products, thereby enhancing their market appeal [26][30] - The article concludes with a call for businesses to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and technological advancements, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation and responsiveness to market needs [39][44]

人民网北京12月24日电 （记者孙红丽）国家药监局近日发布《关于牙膏备案管理有关事项的公 告》（以下简称《公告》），以规范牙膏行业发展，助企减负增效。 《公告》称，经组织专家研究，鉴于实施简化备案的牙膏产品具有一定的生产、销售和使用历史， 牙膏备案人在整理产品备案资料时，可以通过产品安全使用历史的证明性资料替代毒理学试验报告。 《公告》明确，首批产品上市销售日期在2021年1月1日之后的，备案人在补充提交备案资料时，可 以在提交符合要求的产品安全评估报告的基础上，对产品生产销售情况、是否发生质量安全事件及不良 反应监测情况进行说明，证明产品具有安全使用历史，免于提交口腔黏膜刺激试验报告。 据悉，国家药监局《关于贯彻落实牙膏监管法规和简化已上市牙膏备案资料要求等有关事宜的公 告》（2023年第124号）规定，简化备案的牙膏产品，牙膏备案人应当于2025年12月1日前，按照相关法 规规定要求，整理完成相应的产品备案资料。 ...

（来源：化妆品观察 品观） 12月23日，为规范牙膏备案管理工作，国家药监局正式发布关于牙膏备案管理有关事项的公告（2025年第124号），明确首批上市销售日期在2021年1月1 日之后，已完成简化备案的牙膏产品，在满足特定条件的前提下，可免于提交口腔黏膜刺激试验报告。 科学界定边界， 筑牢安全根基 全面理解公告内涵，首先需厘清"豁免"的核心逻辑与适用条件——此次新政绝非简单取消安全检测要求，而是基于风险分级的监管优化，是建立在更精准 风险管控基础上的精细化管理创新。口腔黏膜刺激试验作为牙膏备案阶段的关键安全检测项目，核心作用是模拟产品日常使用场景，评估刺激、过敏等潜 在风险，其安全防控目标始终未变。 企业申请免于提交口腔黏膜试验报告，必须同时满足两大硬性前提：其一，产品需完成科学充分的安全风险评估，评估结果必须明确证明不会对口腔黏膜 健康产生危害，这是守住产品安全的第一道防线；其二，企业需提供完整详实的产品安全使用历史证明资料，包括生产销售情况、质量安全事件记录、不 良反应监测情况等。这些长期积累的真实世界实践数据，将成为替代动物试验报告的重要依据，从市场应用层面充分论证产品安全性。 公告的正式发布，进一步 ...