Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, indicating a significant increase of 53.64% to 84.37% compared to the same period last year, where the net profit was 65.0865 million yuan [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 90 million and 110 million yuan, representing a growth of 90.56% to 132.90% compared to the previous year's figure of 47.2299 million yuan [1] - The basic earnings per share are anticipated to be between 0.20 yuan and 0.24 yuan, compared to 0.14 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to a rise in revenue and a decrease in blasting service costs, which has further enhanced the company's profit level [1] - The performance forecast has not been audited by a registered accountant and is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department [1] - Investors are advised to make cautious decisions based on the preliminary nature of the forecast, with the final data to be disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report [1]

(二)预计的经营业绩： 扭亏为盈 √同向上升 同向下降 证券代码：002783 证券简称：凯龙股份 公告编号：2025－046 湖北凯龙化工集团股份有限公司 2025年半年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 (一)业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日—2025 年 6 月 30 日。 | 项 目 | | 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净 利润 | 盈利：10,000 | 万元–12,000 | 万元 | 盈利：6,508.65 | 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 53.64%–84.37% | | | | | 扣除非经常性损益后归属 于上市公司股东的净利润 | 盈利：9,000 | 万元–11,000 | 万元 | 盈利：4,722.99 | 万元 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 90.56%–132.90% | | | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利： 0.20 | 元/股–0.24 | 元/股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kailong Co., Ltd. (002783) announced an expected net profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 53.64% to 84.37% compared to the same period last year, which was 65.0865 million yuan [1] Summary by Category - **Company Performance** - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 100 million and 120 million yuan [1] - This projection indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 53.64% to 84.37% compared to the previous year's net profit of 65.0865 million yuan [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co., Ltd. has approved a total external guarantee limit of up to RMB 130 million for 2025, with specific limits for subsidiaries based on their asset-liability ratios [1] Group 1: Guarantee Overview - The company will provide guarantees for subsidiaries with an asset-liability ratio below 70%, with a total guarantee limit of RMB 1,027 million [1] - The guarantees will cover various financing activities including bank credit, project loans, and leasing [1] Group 2: Guarantee Progress - The company signed a guarantee contract for Tianhua New Materials Technology (Jingmen) Co., Ltd. with a guarantee amount of RMB 20 million [2] - A maximum guarantee of RMB 240 million was approved for Hubei Kailong Chuxing Chemical Group Co., Ltd. for contracts signed between June 17, 2025, and June 17, 2027 [2][3] - A guarantee of RMB 10 million was provided for Hubei Kailong Bada Logistics Co., Ltd. [4] Group 3: Main Contents of Guarantee Agreements - The guarantees are structured as joint liability guarantees covering principal, interest, penalties, and various costs related to debt recovery [2][3][4] - The guarantee period extends three years beyond the debt fulfillment deadline [3][4] Group 4: Cumulative Guarantee and Overdue Guarantee Situation - As of the announcement date, the total approved guarantee amount for subsidiaries is RMB 1,237 million, accounting for 48.84% of the company's audited net assets as of December 31, 2024 [4] - The actual guarantee balance is RMB 787.43 million, representing 31.09% of the company's audited net assets [4] - There are no overdue guarantees or guarantees involved in litigation [4]

证券代码：002783 证券简称：凯龙股份 公告编号：2025－045 湖北凯龙化工集团股份有限公司 关于提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 湖北凯龙化工集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 23 日召 开第八届董事会第四十四次会议决议和第八届监事会第二十七次会议，于 2025 年 5 月 15 日召开 2024 年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于公司 2025 年度对外担 保额度预计的议案》，同意公司 2025 年度为控股子公司提供总计不超过人民币 115,700 万元的担保额度，其中为资产负债率大于等于 70%的控股子公司提供担 保额度不超过 13,000 万元，为资产负债率低于 70%的控股子公司提供担保额度 不超过 102,700 万元，实际担保金额以最终签订的担保合同为准，担保范围主 要为申请银行综合授信、项目贷款、银行承兑汇票、国内信用证、融资租赁等 融资业务，担保方式为连带责任担保，公司董事会提请股东大会授权公司管理 层签署相关担保协议或文件。担保额度授权有效期限为自公司 20 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

Group 1: Report Overview - The research object is Kailong Co., Ltd., belonging to the chemical products industry, and the reception time was on June 12, 2025. The company's reception staff included Chairman Shao Xingxiang, Board Secretary Sun Jie, and Financial Controller Zhang Yong [16] Group 2: Detailed Research Institutions - The research institutions were investors who participated in the 2025 online collective reception day for listed companies in Hubei through the "Panorama Roadshow" website (https://rs.p5w.net), WeChat official account "Panorama Finance", and Panorama Roadshow APP [17] Group 3: Main Content Information Disclosure - The company will keep an eye on the progress of the share - increase plan and disclose information in a timely manner as required by laws, regulations, and regulatory documents [22] Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has been actively seeking and acquiring enterprises that can synergize with its business to accelerate industrial upgrading through restructuring [22] Hydrogen Energy Investment - The company invested in the hydrogen energy industry fund - Shenzhen Junfeng Huasheng Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership), which holds a 22% stake in Wuhan Institute of Geology Resources and Environmental Industry Technology. The institute has made comprehensive layouts in the hydrogen energy industry chain and incubated several hydrogen - related subsidiaries. The company will disclose significant matters in a timely manner [22] Share - Increase Plan - The controlling shareholder, Zhongjing Group, plans to increase its shareholding in the company within the next 6 months, with an intended investment of no less than 90 million yuan and no more than 180 million yuan. The plan is in progress, and details will be announced later [23] Development Strategy - The company's 14th Five - Year strategic plan is to implement the "One, Two, Three" development strategy, including extending the industrial chain, promoting high - tech and intelligent transformation of traditional industries, and achieving the goals of 10 billion in revenue and 1 billion in net profit. It also aims to cultivate three emerging industries. In 2025, the company will start formulating the 15th Five - Year strategic plan [23] Profit Drivers - Civil explosive products are the main economic pillar of the company. The company has optimized the production capacity layout of civil explosive products and the acquired subsidiaries have become stable profit sources [24] Project Impact - The company will actively participate in relevant projects of the new Three Gorges waterway project [24] Market Value Management - The company responds to regulatory policies and strengthens market value management to enhance corporate value and achieve maximum shareholder value [25]

Group 1: Shareholder Engagement and Investment Plans - The company will closely monitor the major shareholder's increase in holdings and will disclose information in accordance with legal requirements [2] - The major shareholder, Zhongjing Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 90 million and 180 million CNY within the next six months [3] Group 2: Strategic Development and Profit Growth - The company's 14th Five-Year Plan focuses on innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing, aiming for 10 billion CNY in revenue and 1 billion CNY in net profit [4] - Key profit drivers include the civil explosive products, which remain the main source of the company's overall performance [4] Group 3: Industry Position and Future Projects - The company is actively seeking to participate in the Three Gorges Waterway project, which is crucial for modern infrastructure development [5] - The company is investing in the hydrogen energy sector through a partnership with a fund that holds a 22% stake in Wuhan Geological Resources Environmental Industrial Technology Research Institute [2] Group 4: Market Value Management - The company is enhancing its market value management to align its real value with market value, aiming for optimal value management and maximizing shareholder value [6] Group 5: Disclosure Compliance - The activities conducted do not involve any undisclosed significant information [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the approval of the 2024 annual equity distribution plan by the shareholders' meeting held on May 15, 2025, which includes a cash dividend distribution to shareholders [1][4] - The equity distribution plan states that for every 10 shares held, shareholders will receive 1.00 RMB in cash (before tax), with specific tax treatments for different categories of shareholders [1][2] - The record date for the equity distribution is set for June 18, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is June 19, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The distribution will be directly credited to the shareholders' accounts through their custodial securities companies on the ex-dividend date [2] - The company will adjust the repurchase price of the restricted stock options under the 2021 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan following the equity distribution [2][3] - The announcement includes contact information for inquiries regarding the equity distribution [3]

证券代码：002783 证券简称：凯龙股份 公告编号：2025－044 湖北凯龙化工集团股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 湖北凯龙化工集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）2024 年年度 权益分派方案已获 2025 年 5 月 15 日召开的 2024 年年度股东大会审议通过。 本次实施的权益分配方案与股东大会审议通过的分配方案及其调整原则保 持一致，即 2024 年度分红派息方案实施时，如享有利润分配权的股份总额发生 变动，公司则以 A 股实施分配方案股权登记日时享有利润分配权的股份总额为 基数，按照"分配比例不变"原则对分红总金额进行相应调整。 本次实施分配方案距离股东大会审议通过的时间不超过两个月。现将权益分 派事宜公告如下： 一、权益分派方案 本公司 2024 年年度权益分派方案为：以公司现有总股本 499,357,647 股为基 数，向全体股东每 10 股派 1.000000 元人民币现金（含税；扣税后，通过深股通 持有股份的香港市场投资者、QFII、RQFII 以及持有首发前限 ...