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华西证券:预计港股将出现进一步消化阶段压力趋势
news flash· 2025-06-22 23:39
华西证券(002926)指出,预计港股将出现进一步消化阶段压力趋势,前期过热的部分资产出现进一步 获利盘兑现收益。今年上半年累计涨幅偏大和机构较为拥挤的港股资产未来容易出现进一步的回调,未 来一段时间仍不建议无分化追高。现阶段港股市场暂时尚未形成全面大牛市或无分化上涨阶段,若无外 围等客观因素影响,等到未来阶段消化阶段压力之后,港股市场中估值偏低、基本面较好且贸易问题冲 击较小的局部低位资产将存在低吸的结构性机会。 ...
资产配置日报:50年国债起舞-20250619
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-19 15:28
Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]
国外1. 高盛:地缘风险将推升油价,布油或面临10美元/桶风险溢价。2. 惠誉:美国的财政前景仍然充满挑战。3. 三菱日联:若美国宣布介入伊以冲突,美元可能下跌。国内1. 中金:美联储不会在通胀面前轻举妄动。2. 中信证券:预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次。3. 中信证券:预计L3将成为2025年四季度到2026年智驾主要升级方向。4. 招商宏观:美联储对滞胀风险的前瞻判断是迟迟不肯降息的原因。5. 华西证券:市场再度回归震荡格局,向上有一定兑现压力。6. 民生宏观:预计下半年美国硬数据补跌,“滞”将成
news flash· 2025-06-19 08:13
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will drive up oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a risk premium of $10 per barrel [2] - Fitch Ratings highlights that the fiscal outlook for the United States remains challenging [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ warns that if the U.S. intervenes in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the dollar may decline [2] Group 2 - CICC believes that the Federal Reserve will not act hastily in the face of inflation [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than twice this year [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that L3 will become the main upgrade direction for autonomous driving from Q4 2025 to 2026 [2] - China Merchants Macro notes that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts [2] - Huaxi Securities observes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure on profit-taking [2] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard data in the U.S. will decline in the second half of the year, with "stag" becoming a trigger for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy [2]
华西证券:市场再度回归震荡格局,向上有一定兑现压力
news flash· 2025-06-19 00:21
华西证券:市场再度回归震荡格局,向上有一定兑现压力 金十数据6月19日讯,华西证券指出,整体来看,地缘冲突造成的情绪波动缓和后,市场再度回归震荡 格局,向上有一定的兑现压力,而向下有做多思维作为支撑。结合近期行情来看,市场已开始交易政策 预期,体现在金融科技、稳定币概念大涨,意味着相关品种的获利筹码可能存在兑现倾向。而证券、保 险等非银品种小幅上涨,若相关行业出现超预期利好政策,有望推动其走强。 ...
融通基金关于旗下部分开放式基金新增华西证券股份有限公司为销售机构及开通相关业务的公告
Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that from June 16, 2025, Rongtong Fund Management Co., Ltd. will add Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. as a sales agency for certain open-end funds, allowing for regular investment and conversion services, as well as participation in front-end fee discount activities [1] - The fee discount applies to the front-end subscription fees for funds that are in the normal subscription period, excluding back-end fees and fees for funds in the fundraising period [1][2] - Investors can only convert fund shares within the same fee structure, meaning front-end shares can only be converted to other front-end shares, and back-end shares to back-end shares [4] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to read the fund's legal documents, such as the Fund Contract and Prospectus, for detailed information about the funds [5] - For inquiries, investors can contact Huaxi Securities or Rongtong Fund Management through their respective websites and customer service numbers [6]
投资策略周报:聚焦6.18陆家嘴论坛,A股上攻行情仍在路上-20250615
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-15 12:05
Market Review - The A-share and Hong Kong stock indices experienced fluctuations this week, with a general decline on Friday due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to capital outflows from risk assets. The A-share market saw increased trading volume, with most major indices closing lower, except for the ChiNext and micro-cap indices which rose. The North China 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices were the biggest losers. In terms of sectors, A-shares in non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture led the gains, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials lagged. Notably, rare earth permanent magnets and oil and gas extraction sectors strengthened due to external disturbances. In commodities, risk aversion drove oil prices and gold to rise significantly, with WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures increasing by over 13%, and COMEX gold rising by 3.3%. The US dollar index fell below 98, while the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [1][2]. Market Outlook - The upcoming 6.18 Lujiazui Forum is anticipated to be a significant event for the A-share market, with expectations of new financial policies being announced. Recent negotiations between China and the US in London have met market expectations, but geopolitical issues in the Middle East have caused short-term fluctuations in global risk appetite. The core factors affecting the A-share market remain structural issues rather than external geopolitical events. The risk premium for the CSI 300 index has dropped to its lowest level since April, indicating a need for sustained economic fundamentals or incremental policies to boost risk appetite. The forum is expected to provide insights into major financial policies that could support market sentiment and contribute to a stable upward trend in A-shares [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - The economic fundamentals indicate persistent challenges, including insufficient domestic demand and low prices, which continue to constrain corporate profitability. In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, marking an expansion in the decline for the 32nd consecutive month. The low PPI is attributed to both external factors like falling oil prices and internal issues such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in certain industries. To boost prices, it is essential to expand effective demand and streamline supply-demand cycles, requiring coordinated efforts across fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies. Historical data shows a positive correlation between PPI and the profit growth of non-financial A-share companies, suggesting that a return to rising price levels will depend on the effective implementation of policies [3]. Policy Expectations - The 6.18 Lujiazui Forum, scheduled for June 18-19, is expected to unveil several significant financial policies, with the market showing anticipation for these new regulations. The forum will feature key officials from the central bank and financial regulatory bodies, and it has historically served as a platform for announcing major policies and signaling important developments in financial regulation. This year's forum will focus on topics such as financial openness, global economic changes, and the sustainable development of capital markets, which are likely to support investor sentiment and risk appetite [2][3]. Sector Allocation - In terms of sector allocation, a balanced approach is recommended, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI applications (both software and hardware), and innovative pharmaceuticals. Thematic investments should also consider areas such as self-sufficiency and mergers and acquisitions [3].
券商晨会精华:以轮动思维来博弈科技行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 00:30
Group 1 - The market experienced a rapid decline in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index leading the drop, and the total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching 1.42 trillion, an increase of 129 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Sectors such as port shipping, beauty care, innovative drugs, and rare earth permanent magnets saw significant gains, while sectors like Huawei Ascend, military industry, semiconductors, and software development faced declines [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17% [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' 2025 mid-term outlook emphasizes the importance of the AI technology revolution, military industry, and self-sufficiency amid global order restructuring and changing asset pricing dynamics [2] - The report highlights the need for flexibility in asset operations, suggesting to leverage high odds and low correlation strategies to navigate the uncertain environment [2] - It also notes that the weakening trend of the US dollar may favor non-US assets, with European assets showing higher success rates and emerging markets like Hong Kong offering better odds [2] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the tungsten market is entering a bull market phase, driven by tightening supply and demand dynamics, along with overseas premium pricing for tungsten products [3] - The long-term outlook predicts that the tungsten supply-demand gap will expand from 18,300 tons in January 2024 to 19,100 tons by 2028, with the supply-demand gap as a percentage of original tungsten demand projected to be negative over the years [3] Group 4 - Huaxi Securities suggests adopting a rotation strategy to capitalize on the technology sector's rebound, driven by improved expectations regarding US-China trade relations [4] - The report warns of ongoing uncertainties in international cues, indicating the need for preparedness against market fluctuations and avoiding excessive trading in a single direction [4] - It emphasizes that if the technology sector faces significant corrections, it may present better opportunities for recovery, particularly for the Sci-Tech 50 index [4]
华西证券: 2024年度股东大会会议材料
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-09 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in a challenging market environment, achieving significant growth in revenue and profit while focusing on compliance, governance, and strategic transformation initiatives [1][6][31]. Group 1: Governance and Compliance - The company has held 2 shareholder meetings and 6 board meetings, ensuring rigorous decision-making processes and compliance with legal regulations [2][3]. - A comprehensive compliance management system has been established, enhancing risk management and internal controls, which has led to successful audits and regulatory checks [3][4][19]. - The board has emphasized the importance of independent directors in decision-making and oversight, improving the overall governance structure [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in operating revenue, reaching 39.20 billion yuan, a 23.22% increase from the previous year [24][31]. - Net profit surged to 7.27 billion yuan, reflecting a 72.93% year-on-year growth, driven by strategic adjustments in investment and wealth management [24][31]. - Total assets increased to 1,003.46 billion yuan, marking a 12.89% rise, while total liabilities also grew, indicating robust operational expansion [25][32]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on business transformation, particularly in wealth management and fixed income, to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments [8][12]. - A commitment to ESG principles has been integrated into the business model, with active participation in green finance initiatives and community support programs [6][12]. - The board plans to enhance digital transformation efforts, leveraging technology to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [12][31]. Group 4: Future Directions - The company aims to strengthen its governance framework in line with new regulatory requirements, ensuring compliance and operational effectiveness [10][11]. - There is a focus on enhancing investor relations and communication strategies to better engage with shareholders and address their concerns [5][10]. - The board will prioritize risk management and compliance as foundational elements for sustainable growth and high-quality development [11][12].
华西证券(002926) - 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知
2025-06-09 12:45
证券代码:002926 证券简称:华西证券 公告编号:2025-023 华西证券股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年度股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司股东大会规则》 《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 等有关法律法规及《华西证券股份有限公司章程》(以 下简称"《公司章程》")的规定,经华西证券股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第四届 董事会 2025 年第二次会议审议通过,决定召开公司 2024 年度股东大会(以下简称"本次 会议"),现将本次会议的相关事项通知如下: 一、本次会议召开的基本情况 1、股东大会届次:华西证券股份有限公司 2024 年度股东大会。 2、股东大会召集人:公司董事会。 3、会议召开的合法、合规性:本次会议的召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华 人民共和国证券法》《上市公司股东大会规则》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等有关法 律法规及《公司章程》的规定。 4、会议召开的日期、时间: (1)现场会议召开时间:2025 年 6 月 30 日(星期一)1 ...
华西证券(002926) - 2024年度股东大会会议材料
2025-06-09 12:45
华西证券股份有限公司 2024 年度股东大会 会 议 资 料 2024 年度股东大会会议 议案目录 | 议案序号 | 议案名称 | | --- | --- | | 1 | 2024 年度董事会工作报告 | | 2 | 2024 年度监事会工作报告 | | 3 | 《2024 年年度报告》及其摘要 | | 4 | 2024 年度财务决算报告 | | 5 | 2024 年度利润分配方案 | | 6 | 关于续聘会计师事务所的议案 | | 7 | 关于确认2024年度关联交易及预计2025年度日常关联交易的议 案 | | 8 | 关于修订《公司章程》的议案 | | 9 | 关于设立董事会战略发展委员会的议案 | | 10 | 关于 2024 年度董事履职情况、绩效考核情况及薪酬情况的议案 | | 11 | 关于 2024 年度监事履职情况、绩效考核情况及薪酬情况的议案 | 1 议案一 2024 年度董事会工作报告 各位股东: 2024 年,是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的关键之年,也是资 本市场改革纵深推进之年。新"国九条"的正式发布,协同多项配 套制度规则,共同构筑起"1+N"政策体系框架,系统性重塑资本 市场基础制度 ...