Report Information - Report Title: "Research on Major Asset Classes Isn't Complicated: The Second Lesson from a Decade of Research" [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liu Yu [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Different major asset classes have unique risk - return characteristics, and these characteristics change over time. Therefore, investors should regularly re - evaluate these features, select high - quality assets, and aim for beta returns by avoiding frequent timing and trading [2][13] - The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified within a framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing asset price trends and making investment decisions [3] Summary by Directory 1. What is a Good Asset? - Asset characteristics can be evaluated using the risk - return ratio, which combines return and volatility. Assets with high returns and low volatility are considered good assets [11][12] - Historically, gold has shown an upward trend, and the domestic bond market has been in a long - term bull market since 2018, both providing good holding experiences. The domestic stock market is range - bound, making timing crucial for investors [12] - In 2025 from January to July, due to factors such as US tariff policies and the entry of market - stabilizing funds, the risk - return ratios of various assets changed significantly. Gold's ratio increased, domestic equities improved, and pure - bond indices deteriorated [2][12] 2. The Unified Framework for Major Asset Classes - Asset price movements have three phases: rising, falling, and sideways. The key to research and investment is to find the inflection points between these phases. The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified under the framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior [3][16] - Liquidity refers to the ease of obtaining funds in the market. Loose monetary policies usually lead to more funds flowing into the capital market, driving up asset prices [3][17] - Risk preference reflects investors' expectations and confidence in the future. It is influenced by economic fundamentals and policy expectations, and has a significant impact on asset pricing [18][19] - Institutional behavior affects the market in two ways: strengthening short - term trends and having a structural impact on specific sectors [4][20] 3. Equities: Risk Preference is Key - Stock market pricing can be simply measured by the price - earnings ratio, and risk preference is a crucial factor. High risk preference leads to more optimistic pricing, while low risk preference can cause prices to fall [21] - The balance of margin trading can be used to measure market risk preference. An increase in the balance indicates rising risk preference, and vice versa [21] - The driving factors for risk preference in the stock market include corporate earnings and policy expectations. Different driving factors require different investment strategies [26][31] 4. Bonds: Monetary Policy is the Lifeline - The main ways to obtain returns in the bond market are through coupon payments, leverage, and duration. Monetary policy and the money market are vital for the bond market [33][35] - The net lending scale of the banking system can be used to judge the stability of the money market. Policy changes and institutional behavior can also have a significant impact on the bond market [35][40] 5. Gold: De - dollarization is the Main Line - Gold is globally priced. Its price is affected by global liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior, especially the gold - buying behavior of central banks [46] - Historically, gold was negatively correlated with the real US dollar interest rate. However, since 2020, the relationship has become positive, indicating a change in the pricing logic due to the de - dollarization process [46][50] - As the de - dollarization trend continues, central banks' increased gold purchases support the price of gold, and gold is expected to benefit from this trend [50][52]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a special ranking list for private equity institutions, highlighting their unique investment research needs and preferences, which reflect their professional judgment and market voice [1][24]. Summary by Sections Private Equity Institutions Voting - A total of 177 private equity institutions participated in the voting process, managing over 1 trillion yuan [2]. Ranking of Analysts in Various Categories - The rankings for the 23rd New Fortune Best Analysts include various categories such as macroeconomics, strategy research, fixed income research, and more, showcasing the top institutions in each field [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Categories and Top Institutions - **Macroeconomics**: Top institutions include Guangfa Securities, Changjiang Securities, and Huachuang Securities [6]. - **Strategy Research**: Guangfa Securities leads, followed by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [6]. - **Fixed Income Research**: Huatai Securities ranks first, with Tianfeng Securities and Changjiang Securities following [7]. - **Banking**: Top institutions are Guohai Securities, CITIC Securities, and Guangfa Securities [8]. - **Real Estate**: Changjiang Securities ranks first, followed by Guangfa Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [9]. - **Food and Beverage**: Changjiang Securities leads this category [10]. - **Pharmaceuticals and Biology**: Tianfeng Securities ranks first, with Guosheng Securities and CITIC Securities following [10]. - **Consumer Services**: Tianfeng Securities is the top institution [11]. - **Household Appliances**: The leading institution is Caitong Securities [11]. - **Agriculture**: Changjiang Securities ranks first [12]. - **Electronics**: Huachuang Securities leads this category [13]. - **Communications**: Tianfeng Securities ranks first [14]. - **Machinery**: Guangfa Securities is the top institution [15]. - **New Energy and Power Equipment**: Tianfeng Securities ranks first [16]. - **Defense and Military**: Changjiang Securities leads this category [17]. - **Chemicals**: Shenwan Hongyuan Securities ranks first [18]. - **Utilities**: Changjiang Securities is the top institution [19]. - **Metals and New Materials**: Changjiang Securities ranks first [20]. - **Non-Metallic Building Materials**: Changjiang Securities leads this category [21]. - **Overseas Market Research**: Tianfeng Securities ranks first [21].

证券之星消息，8月29日证券板块较上一交易日上涨0.01%，华西证券领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3857.93，上涨0.37%。深证成指报收于12696.15，上涨0.99%。证券板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日证券板块主力资金净流出11.83亿元，游资资金净流入7983.76万元，散户资金净 流入11.03亿元。证券板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300059 东方财富 | | 30.58亿 | 9.44% | -14.08亿 | -4.35% | -16.50 Z | -5.09% | | 601066 中信建投 | | 1.27 乙 | 6.80% | -3296.30万 | -1.77% | -9377.75万 | -5.03% | | 002926 华西证券 | | 1.20亿 | 7.68% | -4098.05万 | -2.63% | -7869. ...

记者丨易妍君 编辑丨巫燕玲 受益于A股市场交投活跃，券商2025年中报集体"报喜"。 截至8月28日午盘，已有14家上市券商公布2025年半年度报告，以中小券商为主。 其中，浙商证券、东吴证券、国元证券、长城证券、华安证券、信达证券等10家上市券商，今年上半年营收均超过20亿元；同时，前述提及 的6家券商上半年净利润均达到10亿元以上。 业绩增幅方面，相较去年同期，今年上半年有12家上市券商实现营收、净利润"双增"；不过也有2家上市券商呈现"营收降、净利润增"的情 况。 值得关注的是，部分区域券商迎来业绩爆发期。例如，华西证券上半年净利润暴增了11倍，东北证券、华林证券半年度净利润分别增长了2 倍、1倍以上，为净利润增幅最突出的3家券商。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，今年上半年，经纪、自营业务成为证券行业业绩增长的主要驱动力。上述14家上市券商的经纪业务手续费净 收入均实现了同比增长。 据Wind统计，在已披露2025年中报的14家上市券商中，今年上半年归母净利润超过10亿元的券商共有6家，分别为东吴证券、国元证券、长 城证券、浙商证券、华安证券和信达证券。 值得关注的是，这6家券商上半年营收均超过20亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry in China has shown significant recovery in the first half of 2025, with many brokerages reporting strong earnings growth driven by active trading in the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - As of August 28, 2025, 14 listed brokerages have reported their mid-year earnings, with 10 of them achieving revenue exceeding 2 billion yuan and net profits over 1 billion yuan [1][2]. - Six brokerages, including Dongwu Securities and Guoyuan Securities, reported net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Dongwu Securities achieving a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan [2][4]. - Notably, Huaxi Securities experienced a net profit surge of 11 times, while Northeast Securities and Hualin Securities saw net profit growth of 2 times and over 1 time, respectively [1][5]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first half of 2025, all 14 listed brokerages reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with Huaxi Securities, Northeast Securities, and Hualin Securities showing remarkable growth rates of 1195.02%, 225.90%, and 172.72% respectively [5][6]. - Two brokerages reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, specifically Zheshang Securities and Xibu Securities, with revenue decreases of 23.66% and 16.23% respectively [6][8]. Group 3: Business Drivers - The main drivers of growth in the securities industry were brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with all 14 brokerages reporting an increase in net income from brokerage fees [8][10]. - Nine brokerages, including Huaxi Securities and Guoyuan Securities, saw their brokerage fee income increase by over 40% year-on-year [8][10]. - Investment income also generally increased, with several brokerages reporting a doubling of investment net income compared to the previous year [8][11]. Group 4: Investment Banking and Asset Management - The investment banking sector showed signs of recovery, with 11 out of 14 brokerages reporting an increase in investment banking fee income [12][13]. - However, asset management businesses posed a drag on overall performance, with only Dongwu Securities and Changcheng Securities reporting growth in asset management fee income [12][13]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The securities sector's investment value is gaining attention due to significant earnings recovery, supported by favorable policies and capital influx [14]. - The industry is focusing on developing high-value-added services, particularly wealth management and institutional business, to enhance income stability and profitability [14].

Group 1 - A-shares of brokerage stocks have risen, with Huaxi Securities increasing by over 6% [1] - Guosheng Financial Holdings, Guolian Minsheng, and CITIC Securities have all risen by over 2% [1] - Other notable increases include Guojin Securities, GF Securities, China Galaxy, Guotai Junan, Zhongyin Securities, and Changjiang Securities, all rising by over 1% [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities has a market value of 29.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.48% [2] - Guosheng Financial Holdings has a market value of 38.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 51.57% [2] - Guolian Minsheng has a market value of 71 billion but a year-to-date decrease of 7.12% [2] - CITIC Securities has a market value of 217.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 9.57% [2] - Guojin Securities has a market value of 38.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 21.28% [2] - GF Securities has a market value of 167.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 39.22% [2] - China Galaxy has a market value of 203.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 23.74% [2] - Guotai Junan has a market value of 375.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 15.90% [2] - Zhongyin Securities has a market value of 44.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 44.25% [2] - Changjiang Securities has a market value of 47.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 28.35% [2]

Group 1 - A-share brokerage stocks have seen significant increases, with Huaxi Securities rising over 6% and several others, including Guosheng Financial Holdings and Zhongxin Jinkong, increasing by more than 2% [1] - The following are the performance metrics of selected brokerage stocks: - Huaxi Securities: 6.23% increase, market cap of 29.1 billion, year-to-date increase of 34.48% - Guosheng Financial Holdings: 2.80% increase, market cap of 38.4 billion, year-to-date increase of 51.57% - Guolian Minsheng: 2.38% increase, market cap of 71 billion, year-to-date decrease of 7.12% - Zhongxin Jinkong: 2.07% increase, market cap of 217.6 billion, year-to-date increase of 9.57% [2] - Other notable brokerage stocks include: - Guojin Securities: 1.85% increase, market cap of 38.8 billion, year-to-date increase of 21.28% - GF Securities: 1.38% increase, market cap of 167.7 billion, year-to-date increase of 39.22% - China Galaxy: 1.36% increase, market cap of 203.7 billion, year-to-date increase of 23.74% [2] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for these stocks [2]

Group 1 - The underlying logic of the current market rally remains intact, with three key points not being disproven: the importance of policy in stabilizing the capital market, advancements in technology, and the ongoing narrative against "involution" which suggests potential for market growth [1] - The stability of the market is currently supported by policy measures, which need to be corroborated by net inflow indicators of stock ETFs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's active trading has led to a collective positive performance among brokerage firms in their 2025 mid-year reports, with many reporting significant revenue and profit growth [2][3][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of August 28, 2025, 14 listed brokerages have released their mid-year reports, primarily small and medium-sized firms [2]. - Among these, 10 brokerages, including Zheshang Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guoyuan Securities, reported revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan, with net profits surpassing 1 billion yuan for six of them [2][4]. - Notably, Huaxi Securities experienced a net profit surge of 11 times, while Northeast Securities and Hualin Securities saw net profit growth of 2 times and over 1 time, respectively [2][7]. - In terms of revenue, Zheshang Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guoyuan Securities achieved revenues of 6.107 billion yuan, 4.428 billion yuan, and 3.397 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.149 billion yuan, 1.932 billion yuan, and 1.405 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Growth - All 14 listed brokerages reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with Huaxi Securities, Northeast Securities, and Hualin Securities showing exceptional growth rates of 1195.02%, 225.90%, and 172.72%, respectively [7][8]. - Two brokerages reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, while 12 brokerages achieved simultaneous growth in both metrics [9][10]. - The overall brokerage industry saw a significant increase in trading volume, with a 60.9% year-on-year rise, contributing to the revenue growth [12][14]. Group 3: Business Drivers - Brokerage and proprietary trading businesses emerged as the main drivers of revenue growth in the securities industry [13][14]. - Nine brokerages, including Huaxi Securities and Guoyuan Securities, reported a year-on-year increase in brokerage fee income exceeding 40% [14]. - Investment income also showed a positive trend, with several brokerages, including Dongwu Securities and Zheshang Securities, reporting over 100% growth in investment net income [16][19]. Group 4: Investment Banking and Asset Management - The investment banking sector showed signs of recovery, with 11 out of 14 brokerages reporting a year-on-year increase in investment banking fee income [20][21]. - However, asset management business has been a drag on performance, with only Dongwu Securities and Changcheng Securities reporting growth in asset management fee income [23][24]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The brokerage sector's investment value is gaining attention due to significant performance recovery, supported by favorable policies and capital influx [25]. - The industry is focusing on developing high-value-added businesses, particularly wealth management and institutional services, to enhance revenue stability and profitability [25].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's active trading has led to a collective positive performance among brokerage firms in their 2025 mid-year reports, with many reporting significant revenue and profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of August 28, 2025, 14 listed brokerages have released their mid-year reports, primarily small and medium-sized firms [2]. - Ten brokerages, including Zheshang Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guoyuan Securities, reported revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan, with six of them achieving net profits above 1 billion yuan [2][5]. - Twelve brokerages experienced both revenue and net profit growth compared to the same period last year, while two firms showed a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit [10][11]. - Notably, Huaxi Securities saw its net profit surge by 11 times, while Northeast Securities and Hualin Securities reported net profit increases of 2 times and over 1 time, respectively [2][9]. Group 2: Revenue and Profit Breakdown - The revenue and net profit figures for key brokerages in the first half of 2025 are as follows: - Zheshang Securities: Revenue 6.11 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.15 billion yuan [6][7]. - Dongwu Securities: Revenue 4.43 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.93 billion yuan [6][7]. - Guoyuan Securities: Revenue 3.40 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.40 billion yuan [6][7]. - Longcheng Securities and Huawan Securities both exceeded 2.8 billion yuan in revenue, with net profits of 1.39 billion yuan and 1.03 billion yuan, respectively [6][7]. - Four brokerages, including Xibu Securities and Dongxing Securities, reported revenues above 2 billion yuan but net profits below 900 million yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Business Drivers - The primary drivers of growth in the brokerage industry for the first half of 2025 were brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with all 14 listed brokerages reporting a year-on-year increase in brokerage fee income [15][16]. - The stock trading volume increased by 60.9% year-on-year, contributing to the overall performance improvement [14]. - Brokerages like Huaxi Securities reported a 35.25% increase in brokerage and wealth management income, while investment income also saw significant growth [19][20]. Group 4: Investment and Asset Management - The investment business of brokerages generally showed growth, with only Northeast Securities and Hualin Securities reporting a decline in investment net income [17]. - Several brokerages, including Dongwu Securities and Zheshang Securities, reported investment net income growth exceeding 100% [18]. - However, the asset management business has been a drag on performance, with only Dongwu Securities and Longcheng Securities reporting growth in asset management fee income [24][25]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The recovery in brokerage performance, supported by favorable policies and funding, has attracted market attention to the investment value of the brokerage sector [26]. - The industry is focusing on developing high-value-added businesses, particularly wealth management and institutional services, to optimize revenue structure and enhance profitability stability [26].