| | | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-01-06 09:00——2026-01-07 15:00） 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 策略观察：《元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价》2026-01-07 | 2 | |  | 海外策略研究：《岁末年初躁动下亚洲市场领涨》2026-01-06 | 3 | |  | 策略专题报告：《新兴产业空间广阔，看多中国产业龙头》2026-01-06 | 3 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：海外科技《CES：NVDA、INTEL 算力升级，物理 AI 成推进焦点》2026-01-06 | 4 | |  | 公司公告点评：众鑫股份（603091）《启动美国工厂布局，夯实成长动能》2026-01-07 | 5 | |  | 海外报告：十月稻田（9676）《强效率，拓品类、扩新渠》2026-01-07 | 6 | |  | 海外报告：明略科技-W（2718）《核心业务稳健，强化数据智能龙头地位》2026-01-06 | 7 | |  | 公司公告点评：中国巨石（600176）《激励如期落地，彰显发展信心》2026-01-06 | ...

Group 1: Strategy Research - The current overseas computing power valuation is reasonable, and subsequent performance upgrades are key; domestic computing power awaits performance realization and is catalyzed by the decline in risk-free interest rates; AI application valuations are cost-effective, with a focus on internet and media sectors [2][3][6] Group 2: Dairy Industry Research - The ruling on import beef safeguard measures has been implemented, with a nearly 6% reduction in quotas for major supplying countries in 2026, and an additional 55% tariff on beef imported outside the quota, which is expected to boost domestic beef demand and sustain the upward trend in the beef cattle industry [7][8][9] - The price of raw milk is stabilizing and is expected to rise in 2026 due to the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased replenishment, along with the release of processing capacity on the demand side [7][9] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials Research - China Jushi has announced a restricted stock incentive plan, which reflects the company's confidence in future operations, covering a wide range of employees including executives and core middle management [3][10][11] Group 4: Fixed Income Research - The January 2026 convertible bond portfolio is biased towards aggressive and elastic sectors, supplemented by a balanced combination of relatively low-priced and undervalued industries [2][14][16] - The convertible bond market is expected to experience a "New Year rally" due to policy expectations and seasonal capital inflows, with a focus on technology innovation and expanding domestic demand as key investment themes [29][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities 1000 Growth ETF (562520) opened with a slight decline of 0.15%, priced at 1.376 yuan, while its constituent stocks showed mixed performance on January 7 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The China Securities 1000 Growth ETF (562520) has a performance benchmark based on the China Securities Intelligent Selection 1000 Growth Innovation Strategy Index [1] - Since its inception on March 8, 2022, the fund has achieved a return of 37.50%, with a one-month return of 8.71% [1] Group 2: Constituent Stocks Performance - Among the top holdings, Jucheng Co. saw a significant increase of 13.14%, while other stocks like Gylon Electronics and SourceJet Technology also experienced slight gains of 0.22% and 2.94% respectively [1] - Conversely, stocks such as Gigabit and Lexin Technology faced declines of 0.60% and 0.49% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across the ETF's holdings [1]

2026年1月6日 证券研究报告 | 社会服务行业1月投资策略 元旦出行开门红，春节错期推荐反季节经营旺季龙头 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 ◼ 元旦假期总结：国内游量升符合预期，价重回温和增长通道。量端，根据文旅部，元旦假期3天，全国国内出游1.42亿人次、估算较2024年 增长5.2%；根据交通运输部，元旦假期预计累计全社会跨区域人员流动量为5.9亿人次，日均1.98亿人次，同比增长19.5%；铁路、民航客运 量相较2024年元旦假期分别增长9.1%、13.3%。价端，国内出游总花费847.89亿元、估算较2024年增长6.3%；据此估算人均消费较2024年增 长1.1%。总体上，得益于假期晴好天气以及请3休8拼假方案，假期旅游意愿向好，短途微度假与南北互换长线游交织。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 子行业：与2024元旦相比，海南免税量价高升，酒店需求双位数增长，山岳型景区表现突出，出境游延续景气，本地消费平稳。 1）免税： 根据海口海关统计，元旦假期共监管离岛免税商品销售44.2万件、购物人数8.35万人次、购物金额7.12亿元，对比2024年元旦假期，离岛免 税销售额、购物人次、人 ...

首次覆盖: 公考龙头的跃迁：基地下沉、AI 赋能 华图山鼎(300492) 华图山鼎首次覆盖报告 股票研究/[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 2026-01-06 建筑工程业 [Table_Industry] /工业 本报告导读： 公司利用 AI 技术全场景赋能及地市基地下沉战略，配合与粉笔的深度协作，正加速 实现公考行业的市占率跨越与格局重塑。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 247 | 2,833 | 3,458 | 4,293 | 5,159 | | (+/-)% | 131.3% | 1,046.3% | 22.1% | 24.1% | 20.2% | | 净利润(归母) | -92 | 53 | 312 | 438 | 543 | | (+/-)% | -939.0% | 157.6% | 487.9% | 40.7% | 23.9% | | 每股净收益(元) | -0.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 89.20 CNY [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is leveraging AI technology and a city-based base sinking strategy, in collaboration with Fenbi, to accelerate its market share growth and reshape the public examination industry [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 312 million, 438 million, and 543 million CNY respectively, and EPS of 1.58, 2.23, and 2.76 CNY [12][16]. - The strategic partnership with Fenbi is anticipated to enhance competitive barriers and operational efficiency in the vocational education market [12][21]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 247 million CNY in 2023 to 5,159 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 131.3% in 2024 [4][13]. - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 92 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 543 million CNY by 2027, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4][13]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 53.48% in 2024 to 57.16% by 2027, driven by brand effect and operational efficiency [19][21]. Industry Analysis - The number of college graduates in China is expected to exceed 12 million by 2025, creating a sustained demand for public examination training [32][46]. - The public examination training market is projected to reach approximately 151 billion CNY in 2025, with a potential growth to 237 billion CNY by 2030 [46][47]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing number of civil service examination candidates, which has shown a consistent upward trend [41][46].

华图山鼎 20251230 摘要 公考市场规模庞大，2025 年国考报名人数达 370 万，整体规模上千万 级别。尽管录取率下降，但报考热情高涨，付费培训需求强劲，线上低 价和线下高性价比课程均有发展前景。 华图山顶自 2023 年转型公考培训，得益于华图教育资源注入。目前线 下面授占比 93.4%，在线培训占比 6.6%。凭借 20 年教学积累和品牌 影响力，在行业内占据重要地位。 公考行业未来发展前景广阔，报考热情持续高涨，推动培训机构创新产 品和服务。AI 技术应用、线上低价产品和本地化培训将提高学员满意度。 应届生身份延长政策也增加了回乡备考人群。 协议班模式因退费问题衰落，头部机构营收下滑，教师流失加剧尾部机 构扩张，行业竞争格局恶化。华图山鼎因起步较晚，退费压力较轻， 2024 年底收入超过中公教育，成为行业第一。 华图山鼎创新推出"考编直通车"产品，将分项目制改为分科目制，缩 短交付天数，降低教师成本，提升地级市基地班毛利率 40 个百分点， 实现商业模型跑通。 Q&A 近年来公务员考试热潮的原因是什么？ 公务员考试热潮的主要原因在于当前经济形势下，年轻人对稳定工作的追求。 特别是在经济短期承压 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption in 2026, highlighting a year of strategic layout and potential improvements in specific sectors and cycles [4][6][8] - The overall recovery of the service sector is characterized by a moderate rebound and structural prosperity, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption [11][12] - The report identifies three key changes affecting demand, policy, and technology, including a shift towards more rational consumer behavior, the impact of policy and globalization on corporate decisions, and accelerated technological iterations [11][4][6] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on boosting domestic demand, with significant potential for service consumption in China compared to developed countries [19][26] - The report outlines specific sub-sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and education, which are expected to perform differently based on demand and supply dynamics [7][8][34] - Recommendations include focusing on cyclical recovery and sector-specific prosperity, with suggested investments in companies like China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Meituan [4][34][8] Group 3 - The report notes that the service sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [14][12] - Structural trends indicate that leading companies in tea drinks and hotels have outperformed, while duty-free and hotel stocks have shown strength in the fourth quarter [14][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, including various initiatives to stimulate demand and improve the consumer environment [26][28][27]

1、李强签署国务院令，公布《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》 重要程度：★★★★★ 国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》，自2026年1月1日起施 行。《条例》旨在贯彻落实《中华人民共和国增值税法》，共6章54条，主要规定了以下内容。一是细化 纳税人和征税范围。二是明确税率适用。三是确定不同情形应纳税额计算方法。四是完善税收优惠。五是 健全征管措施。 2、发改委等两部门重磅！以旧换新政策公布 涉及汽车、手机、平板、智能眼镜等 设备更新方面：将住宅老旧电梯更新由定额补贴调整为按电梯层(站)数分档差异化补贴；在老旧营运货车 报废更新补贴中，优先支持更新为电动货车。 消费品以旧换新方面：在保持汽车补贴上限不变的基础上，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴；家电 以旧换新调整为补贴1级能效或水效产品，补贴产品售价的15%，单件补贴上限为1500元； 数码和智能产品的补贴标准保持此前数码产品标准不变。 3、两部门发布公告！明年起个人买房满两年卖出时免征增值税 重要程度：★★★ 财政部、税务总局发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告。个人(不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下 同)将购买不足2年 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 6.28%，跑赢大盘 4.61pct。报告 期内（2025 年 12 月 15 日-2025 年 12 月 28 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的 股票为中国中免（16.91%）、中教控股（13.76%）、科德教育、凯撒旅业、 首旅酒店、同道猎聘、君亭酒店、天立国际控股、桂林旅游、豆神教育。 行业与公司动态：海南全岛封关运作首周离岛免税购物金额即实现 11 亿 元，同比增长 54.9%，人均消费达 6667 元，同比增长 16%；上海浦东、 虹桥机场及北京首都机场免税店招标结果相继落地，中国中免成功连中 三标。亚朵持续推进产品迭代以提振经营效率，旗下新品"亚朵 3.6" 通过模块化建设实现筹建周期缩短 20%，首批门店 RevPAR 显著优于同商 圈酒店。临近元旦假期，旅游市场升温，2026 年元旦假期国内航线机票 预订量已突破 106 万张，同比增长约 45%；出入境航线预订量超 53 万张， 同比增长 15%。此外，氛围十足且活动丰富的主题乐园成为年轻人跨年 狂欢的又一选择。12 月 27 日至 28 日，东方甄选"看世界"团队赴 ...