买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 247.12 | 2,832.80 | 3,458.98 | 3,873.54 | 4,118.43 | | 同比（%） | 131.27 | 1,046.34 | 22.10 | 11.99 | 6.32 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (91.97) | 52.99 | 368.13 | 452.11 | 487.48 | | 同比（%） | (939.01) | 157.62 | 594.69 | 22.81 | 7.82 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.47) | 0.27 | 1.87 | 2.30 | 2.48 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (183.75) | 318.89 | 45.90 | 37.38 | 34.67 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券 ...

事件： 2026 年1 月27 日，华图山鼎发布2025 年度业绩预告。公司预计2025 年度实现归属于上市公司股 东的净利润为2.8-4.2 亿元，同比2024 年的5,299.21 万元增长428.4%-692.6%；预计扣除非经常性损益后 的净利润为2.58 -3.87 亿元，同比2024 年的2,444.64 万元增长955.4%-1483.1%。 "直通车"大单品驱动，运营改革与技术升级成效显著：公司业绩大幅增长主要受益于：1）招录类考试 培训行业市场需求持续旺盛；2）通过区域运营改革，将产品交付下沉至地市，建立"轻型基地"，并聚 焦"考编直通车"大单品，锁定长周期生源，优化流程提升运营效率；3）加大前沿技术应用，实现招 生、排课、研发等环节的智能化升级，推出智能面试、申论批改等产品，在保障教学质量的同时有效降 低了单位交付成本，共同推动盈利能力显著提升。 盈利预测与投资评级：作为深耕公考培训20 年的职业教育龙头，华图教育以线下面授为主要形式，提 供培训课程产品和全流程咨询服务。员工持股完成、经营理顺后有望进一步释放利润，"直通车"大单品 驱动成长。维持2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为3.7 ...

华图山鼎2025业绩预告超预期，建议关注华图AI转型升级+粉笔整合协同增厚利润+线下直通车大单品渠道下沉 事件：华图山鼎发布2025年业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润2.8-4.2亿元，扣非归母净利润2.58-3.87亿元 其中非学历培训业务预计实现净利润3.1-4.5亿元，剔除股权支付影响后预计净利润约为3.7-5.1亿元，业绩超预 期。 主要系市场需求旺盛，区域运营改革及直通车 华图山鼎2025业绩预告超预期，建议关注华图AI转型升级+粉笔整合协同增厚利润+线下直通车大单品渠道下沉 事件：华图山鼎发布2025年业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润2.8-4.2亿元，扣非归母净利润2.58-3.87亿元 其中非学历培训业务预计实现净利润3.1-4.5亿元，剔除股权支付影响后预计净利润约为3.7-5.1亿元，业绩超预 期。 主要系市场需求旺盛，区域运营改革及直通车大单品效果显现，AI工具全面优化教学运营流程降本增效。 华图0116 AI转型升级发布会欢迎联系~ AI赋能教师人效提升，从而大幅降本增收 ①公司AI已预排课超10万课时，节省整体课时约40%，降本数千万元，未来还有超亿元优化空间 ②AI单日质检量超10万次，成 ...

华图山鼎（300492）1月27日晚间发布2025年业绩预告，公司预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净 利润为2.8亿元至4.2亿元，同比增长428.38%至692.57%。 华图山鼎表示，2025年，公司业绩大幅增长，主要受益于招录类考试培训行业的市场需求持续旺盛；同 时，公司通过推行区域运营改革，将产品交付下沉至地市；在地市建立"轻型基地"、优化产品供给，只 做一个大单品——"考编直通车"，锁定长周期备考生源；简化招生、转化到交付的流程，提升用户体验 与运营效率的策略进一步巩固了行业领先地位。 此外，公司加大前沿技术应用力度，通过技术工具实现招生质检、智能排课、教学研发的智能化升级， 并推出智能化面试、申论批改等多款产品，全面优化教学与运营全流程，在保障交付质量的同时，有效 降低了单位交付成本，共同推动了盈利能力的显著提升。 AI赋能多环节发力 华图山鼎2025年半年报显示，公司开展的业务包括建筑工程设计及相关咨询服务业务与职业教育领域中 的非学历培训业务。公司的非学历培训业务依托全资子公司华图教育科技及其在全国范围内的分支机构 开展。华图教育科技是国内领先的职业教育培训机构，主要业务包括：国家及地方 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be between 280 million and 420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 428.38% to 692.57% [9] - The core driver of this growth is the non-degree training business, which benefits from strong demand for examination training, regional operational reforms, and technological upgrades that enhance profitability [9] - The company is strategically transforming into vocational education, focusing on civil service and healthcare examination training, which is expected to lead to geometric growth in its non-degree examination training business [9] - The company has established a strong market position and is becoming an industry leader, supported by strategic partnerships and a robust offline network [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.78 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1046.3%, 17.5%, 25.0%, and 15.0% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2024 to 520 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 157.6%, 483.8%, 22.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 2.64 yuan in 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the civil service examination market, which is experiencing increased demand as the number of applicants surpasses that for graduate school entrance exams [9] - The strategic focus on high-quality teaching and service, along with the development of new business areas, is expected to enhance the company's growth potential [9] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework with a leading online education provider, leveraging AI technology to improve profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2025, with net profit projected to be between 280 million and 420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 428.38% to 692.57% [9] - The core driver of this growth is the non-degree training business, which benefits from strong demand for examination training, regional operational reforms, and technological upgrades that enhance profitability [9] - The company is strategically transforming into a leader in vocational education, focusing on civil service and healthcare examination training, which is expected to lead to geometric growth in its non-degree examination training business [9] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.78 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1046.3%, 17.5%, 25.0%, and 15.0% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 53 million yuan in 2024 to 520 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 157.6%, 483.8%, 22.7%, and 37.0% respectively [2] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.27 yuan in 2024 to 2.64 yuan in 2027 [2] Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "Three Good" strategy focusing on quality teachers, courses, and services, which is supported by the controlling shareholder [9] - The company has established strategic partnerships, including one with an online leader in education technology, to enhance its offerings and profitability [9] - The company is well-positioned in the civil service examination market, which is experiencing increased demand as the number of applicants surpasses that for graduate school entrance exams [9]

华西证券研报指出，迎合考公培训市场返乡化、多科化趋势， 华图山鼎在基地班基础上推出打破考试 界限、依据学科类型的直通车班型、同时依托租金优势、规模效应优势盈利能力更强，预计截至26Q1 直通车基地班达到70多家，未来3年有望达到320家左右、对应利润10亿元左右。预计2025-2027年公司 营业总收入分别为33.13/39.4/46.76亿元，同比增长17%/19%/19%；归母净利润分别为3.24/4.0/5.96亿 元，同比增长512%/23%/49%，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

华西证券研报指出，迎合考公培训市场返乡化、多科化趋势，华图山鼎在基地班基础上推出打破考试界 限、依据学科类型的直通车班型、同时依托租金优势、规模效应优势盈利能力更强，预计截至26Q1直 通车基地班达到70多家，未来3年有望达到320家左右、对应利润10亿元左右。预计2025-2027年公司营 业总收入分别为33.13/39.4/46.76亿元，同比增长17%/19%/19%；归母净利润分别为3.24/4.0/5.96亿元， 同比增长512%/23%/49%，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of returning to hometowns and diversification in public examination training, launching a new class type that breaks exam boundaries based on subject types. The company is expected to achieve significant growth in the number of training centers and profitability over the next three years [1][3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.31 billion, 3.94 billion, and 4.68 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 324 million, 400 million, and 596 million yuan, indicating substantial growth rates [1][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in China's public examination training sector, with over 330,000 students trained and more than 1,000 learning centers as of December 31, 2024. The education business has been continuously injected into the company since 2023 [2][12] - The company has undergone significant changes in ownership and structure, with a complete injection of its education business expected in 2024 [12][36] Industry Analysis - The public examination training market is projected to reach approximately 500 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.54% from 2025 to 2027. The company is expected to capture a significant share of this market [3][44] - Despite a decline in recruitment numbers for national examinations in 2026, the overall trend in registration numbers remains stable, with a 12% increase in national examination registrations in 2026 [3][47] Competitive Landscape - The company possesses strong research and development capabilities, a high-quality teaching staff, and a solid reputation for high pass rates, which contribute to its competitive advantage in the market [4][44] - The company has successfully integrated AI technology into its teaching methods, enhancing the effectiveness of its instructors [4] Growth Drivers - The introduction of new class types and the expansion of training centers are expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins over the coming years [1][4] - The company anticipates reaching over 320 training centers by the first quarter of 2026, with projected profits of around 1 billion yuan [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with total revenues expected to increase from 3.31 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.68 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 19% [1][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.65 yuan in 2025 to 3.03 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [1][5]

格隆汇1月27日丨华图山鼎(300492.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润28,000万元– 42,000万元，比上年同期增长428.38%-692.57%，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润25,800万元–38,700万 元，比上年同期增长955.37%-1483.06%。 报告期内，公司业绩大幅增长，主要受益于招录类考试培训行业的市场需求持续旺盛；同时，公司通过 推行区域运营改革，将产品交付下沉至地市；在地市建立"轻型基地"、优化产品供给，只做一个大单品 ——"考编直通车"，锁定长周期备考生源；简化招生、转化到交付的流程，提升用户体验与运营效率的 策略进一步巩固了行业领先地位。此外，公司加大前沿技术应用力度，通过技术工具实现招生质检、智 能排课、教学研发的智能化升级，并推出智能化面试、申论批改等多款产品，全面优化教学与运营全流 程，在保障交付质量的同时，有效降低了单位交付成本，共同推动了盈利能力的显著提升。 ...