AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV ) released Q2 2025 earnings confirming the extraordinary performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which accounted for $6.4 billion in global sales, 41% of AbbVie’s total revenues for Q2. More importantly, both products are demonstrating theirOriginally a Biologist, M.Sc in Biomedicine, PhD in Bioengineering, with +20 years experience in the research and development of novel Cell & Gene Therapies (CGT) tackling several clinical needs. As an investor, I have been utilising my background in l ...

New $195 million facility will further enhance AbbVie's active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production capacity and capabilities in the U.S. Expansion is part of AbbVie's previously announced commitment to invest more than $10 billion of capital in the U.S. over the next decade Construction will begin in fall 2025 with the site expected to be fully operational in 2027 Furthers AbbVie's long-term commitment to the U.S. expanding the company's North Chicago workforce and critical manufacturing capabilitie ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Biopharma** industry in **North America** with a comprehensive analysis of the **US drug market** as per **IQVIA Rx** data [1][6]. Core Insights - The **Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) growth** for the week ending August 1, 2025, was reported at **+2.8%**, an increase from **+1.7%** the previous week and **+2.6%** over the past 12 weeks [1][6]. - For the week ended August 1, the **US total market weekly TRx YoY change** was **+2.8%**, compared to **+0.9%** a year ago. The **rolling 4-week TRx YoY** was **+2.9%** and the **rolling 12-week TRx YoY** was **+2.6%** [2]. Company-Specific Developments - **Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)**: - The drug **Cobenfy** was approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. The current scripts are approximately **2,010** for the week, up from **1,950** the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy's TRx needs to track at **~2-3x** the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3]. - The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has decreased from **$196 million** to **$171 million**, implying that approximately **129K TRx** are required to meet these estimates [3]. - **Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)**: - The drug **Journavx** was approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, with current scripts at approximately **6,800**, up from **6,430** the previous week. It is noted that hospital scripts, which account for about **35%** of total scripts, are not captured by IQVIA [4]. - To achieve a sales target of **$78 million**, approximately **345K total scripts** are needed, assuming a **$225 net price per script** [4]. - **Gilead Sciences (GILD)**: - The launch comparison for **Yeztugo** (lenacapavir) shows current TRx at approximately **210**, down from **300** the previous week. The injectable formulation accounts for **50%** of total TRx [5]. Additional Insights - The **extended unit (EUTRx)** weekly YoY growth was reported at **+1.9%**, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2]. - The **sequential weekly TRx growth** was **-0.1%**, an improvement from **-1.2%** the week before [2]. - The **biopharma industry view** is categorized as **attractive**, while the major pharmaceuticals industry view is **in-line** [7]. Notable Trends - The **momentum of top outpatient drugs** indicates varying performance across different companies, with notable declines in some established drugs like **Humira** (AbbVie) showing a **-40%** YoY change, while newer drugs like **Mounjaro** (Eli Lilly) and **Zepbound** (Eli Lilly) show significant growth rates of **69%** and **257%** respectively [24]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive trend in the US drug market with specific growth in total prescriptions. However, individual company performance varies significantly, with newer drugs showing strong growth potential while established drugs face declines. The insights provided can guide investment decisions in the biopharma sector.

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Biopharma in North America - **Market Analysis**: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending July 25, 2025, was +1.7%, a decrease from +3.0% the previous week and +2.6% over the past 12 weeks [1][2][6] Core Company Insights Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - **Cobenfy Launch**: Approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. Weekly scripts were approximately 1,950, down from 2,060 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at 2-3 times the volumes of recent schizophrenia launches, requiring about 129K TRx at an estimated net price of $1,200 [3][14][16] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - **Journavx Launch**: Approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025. Weekly scripts were around 6,430, up from 6,240 the previous week. Hospital scripts, which are not captured by IQVIA, account for approximately 28% of total scripts. To achieve estimated sales of $65 million, about 289K total scripts are needed [4][19] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - **Yeztugo Launch**: Approved on June 18, 2025, with weekly TRx of approximately 300, an increase from 240 the previous week. The injectable formulation accounted for 45% of total TRx, while the oral formulation made up 55% [5][22] Eli Lilly (LLY) - **Mounjaro and Zepbound**: The launch of Mounjaro is showing strong growth, with a 69% increase in TRx YoY. Zepbound has seen a remarkable 268% increase in TRx YoY [9][26] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +0.9%, indicating a more positive trend compared to TRx YoY growth. This suggests that physicians are increasingly writing longer-duration prescriptions [2][35] - **Key Product Performance**: The performance of major pharmaceutical products shows significant variations, with some experiencing substantial declines (e.g., Humira -41% YoY) while others like Sotyktu and Mounjaro are seeing strong growth [26][48] Important Metrics - **TRx Growth**: The overall TRx growth for the biopharma sector is showing signs of slowing down, with the latest figures indicating a need for companies to adapt their strategies to maintain growth [1][31] - **Sales Estimates**: Consensus estimates for various drugs have been adjusted, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market and the competitive landscape [3][4][5] Conclusion The biopharma industry in North America is currently experiencing mixed performance across different companies and products. While some new launches are showing promising growth, overall market trends indicate a slowdown in prescription growth, necessitating strategic adjustments by companies to meet evolving market demands.

Summary of Earnings Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pharmaceuticals and Biotech Sectors - **Companies Discussed**: AbbVie, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Neurocrine Biosciences, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Chugai Pharmaceutical, PeptiDream, Nxera Pharma Key Points by Company AbbVie - **Sales Performance**: Humira sales decreased by 58.1% year-over-year due to biosimilar competition, but this was offset by strong sales of Skyrizi, which increased by 62.2% to $4.4 billion, driven by market share growth in psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease [1] - **Product Strategy**: Many patients switched from Humira to Skyrizi and Rinvoq instead of biosimilars. AbbVie plans to increase production capacity for Skyrizi in the long term [1] - **New Developments**: The obesity treatment ABBV-295 may address muscle and bone loss when used with other AbbVie drugs [1] Biogen - **Market Share**: Leqembi, an Alzheimer's treatment, maintains a 70% market share despite competition from Eli Lilly's Kisunla [3] - **Testing Growth**: Monthly PET testing for Alzheimer's has increased fivefold, and blood-based biomarker testing has tripled in the past year [3] - **Future Expectations**: Biogen anticipates interim data readout for the AHEAD 3-45 study in 2028 [3] Bristol Myers Squibb - **Sales Growth**: Sales of Opdivo's subcutaneous formulation increased by 7% year-over-year to $30 million, while the intravenous formulation rose to $2.56 billion [6] - **New Product Launch**: Cobenfy, a schizophrenia treatment, generated $35 million in sales with over 2,000 weekly prescriptions [6] - **Direct-to-Patient Model**: The company plans to sell Eliquis directly to patients at a discount of over 50% below the list price [6] Bio-Rad Laboratories - **Sales Performance**: Reported sales of $652 million, up 2% year-over-year, but operating profits fell by 24% to $77 million due to weak demand in biotech and academic research markets [8] - **Market Challenges**: The demand for instruments has been particularly weak, impacting overall sales [8] Neurocrine Biosciences - **Sales Growth**: Total sales reached $688 million, up 16% year-over-year, with operating profits flat at $146 million [10] - **Future Studies**: Plans to initiate a Phase 2 study of NBI-570 in H2 2025, with Phase 1 data readouts expected for NBI-567 and NBI-569 [10] - **Market Positioning**: Neurocrine is exploring differentiation opportunities in muscarinic receptor agonists, which may be better suited for elderly patients [10] Implications for Japanese Companies - **Takeda Pharmaceutical**: Entyvio retains a top share among first-line therapies for ulcerative colitis but is losing market share in second-line settings due to competition [2] - **Chugai Pharmaceutical and PeptiDream**: Both companies are developing myostatin inhibitors to counteract muscle mass loss associated with long-term GLP-1 receptor agonist use [2] - **Nxera Pharma**: The company is positioned positively due to its licensing of muscarinic receptor agonists to Neurocrine, although earnings contributions may not be reflected in share prices until Phase 3 study results are available [11] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The aggressive advertising by competitors is impacting market shares of established products like Entyvio [2] - **Direct Sales Models**: There is a growing trend among overseas pharmaceutical companies to adopt direct-to-patient sales models, which Japanese companies have yet to fully embrace [7] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the earnings calls of the discussed companies, highlighting their performance, strategies, and implications for the broader industry.

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a plan to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, while stating that no fees would be charged for products manufactured in the U.S. [1] - Trump indicated that the U.S. would initially impose "small tariffs" on imported drugs, with plans to increase the rate to 150% within a year and potentially to 250% thereafter, although the initial tariff rate was not disclosed [1] - The market reacted calmly to the news, with several companies reporting that tariffs are not expected to significantly impact their performance this year; Pfizer's stock rose over 5%, while stocks of companies like Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson saw slight declines [1] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that a 15% tariff on drugs imported from the EU could increase costs for the pharmaceutical industry by up to $19 billion annually [1] - Trump has previously sent letters to 17 pharmaceutical companies, including major players like Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer, urging them to lower drug prices in the U.S. [1]

Summary of AbbVie Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: AbbVie - **Key Executives Present**: Rob Michael (CEO), Jeff Stewart (Chief Commercial Officer), Rupal Thakkar (Chief Scientific Officer), Scott Rents (CFO) [1] Financial Performance - **Sales Growth**: AbbVie reported a 22% sales growth from its ex-Humira platform, with combined sales from SkyRizzy and Renvoke expected to exceed $25 billion this year [2] - **Revenue Guidance**: Full-year revenue guidance raised to $60.5 billion, an increase of $800 million, with adjusted EPS guidance raised by $0.21 to a range of $11.88 to $12.08 [2][14] - **Quarterly Results**: Total net revenues for the quarter were $15.4 billion, reflecting a 6.5% operational growth [13] Product Performance Immunology - **SkyRizzy**: Global sales reached $4.4 billion, up 61.8% operationally, with strong market leadership in psoriasis and IBD [3][4] - **Rinvoc**: Global sales of $2 billion, up 41.2%, with strong uptake in IBD [4][5] - **Humira**: Global sales of $1.1 billion, down 58.2% due to biosimilar competition [5] Neuroscience - **Total Revenues**: Approximately $2.7 billion, up 24% operationally [7] - **Key Products**: - Raylar: Global sales of $900 million, up 16.3% - Botox Therapeutic: Global revenues of $928 million, up 14.2% - QLIPTA: Global sales of $338 million, up 47.2% [7] Oncology - **Total Revenues**: Nearly $1.7 billion, with global sales of Imbruvica at $2.9 billion, reflecting higher persistency rates for existing patients [5][14] Aesthetics - **Total Revenues**: Nearly $1.3 billion, down 8% operationally, impacted by economic challenges [6] - **Botox Cosmetic**: Global revenues of $692 million, with growth rates down [6] Research and Development Highlights - **Pipeline Progress**: Notable approvals include Emerilis for lung cancer and RINVOC for GCA [2][8] - **Innovative Acquisitions**: Acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics for CAR T platform and Gubra for obesity treatment [3][9] - **Alopecia Areata Results**: RINVOC showed significant hair regrowth results, with 54% of patients achieving over 80% scalp coverage [8][9] Strategic Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: AbbVie is well-positioned for growth with a diversified portfolio and plans for further investments in R&D and external innovation [20][21] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is navigating competitive pressures, particularly in the IL-23 class and aesthetics market, while maintaining strong performance in its core therapeutic areas [32] Additional Insights - **Biosimilar Impact**: The transition from Humira to newer products like SkyRizzy and Rinvoc is ongoing, with some patients opting for more efficacious drugs rather than biosimilars [16][17] - **Economic Conditions**: The aesthetics market is facing challenges due to lower consumer sentiment, but AbbVie remains optimistic about long-term growth potential [6][30] Conclusion - AbbVie demonstrated strong financial performance and growth across multiple therapeutic areas, with a robust pipeline and strategic acquisitions supporting its long-term outlook. The company is actively addressing competitive dynamics and economic challenges while positioning itself for future success.

PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION [Financial Statements and Supplementary Data](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20FINANCIAL%20STATEMENTS%20AND%20SUPPLEMENTARY%20DATA) This section presents AbbVie's unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2025, including key statements and detailed supporting notes [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Earnings](index=3&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Earnings) AbbVie's Q2 2025 net revenues grew to $15.4 billion, but net earnings decreased to $938 million due to higher operating costs Condensed Consolidated Statements of Earnings (Q2 & H1 2025 vs 2024) | (in millions, except per share data) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Six Months 2025 | Six Months 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net revenues** | **$15,423** | **$14,462** | **$28,766** | **$26,772** | | Operating earnings | $4,894 | $3,998 | $8,627 | $6,796 | | Net earnings attributable to AbbVie Inc. | $938 | $1,370 | $2,224 | $2,739 | | Diluted earnings per share | $0.52 | $0.77 | $1.24 | $1.53 | [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=5&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) Total assets increased slightly to $137.2 billion by June 30, 2025, while a rise in liabilities led to a total stockholders' deficit of $138 million Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights | (in millions) | June 30, 2025 (unaudited) | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total current assets** | **$29,261** | **$25,582** | | Intangible assets, net | $57,031 | $60,068 | | Goodwill | $35,638 | $34,956 | | **Total assets** | **$137,182** | **$135,161** | | **Total current liabilities** | **$39,767** | **$38,749** | | Long-term debt and finance lease obligations | $62,959 | $60,340 | | **Total liabilities** | **$137,320** | **$131,797** | | **Total equity (deficit)** | **($138)** | **$3,364** | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=7&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Operating cash flow for H1 2025 increased to $6.8 billion, with cash and equivalents rising to $6.5 billion at period end Cash Flow Summary (Six Months Ended June 30) | (in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Cash flows from operating activities | $6,788 | $6,311 | | Cash flows from investing activities | ($1,916) | ($10,690) | | Cash flows from financing activities | ($3,968) | $4,722 | | **Net change in cash and equivalents** | **$943** | **$316** | | **Cash and equivalents, end of period** | **$6,467** | **$13,130** | [Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Detailed disclosures cover acquisitions, collaborations, financial instruments, litigation, and product revenue breakdowns - AbbVie entered a definitive agreement to acquire Capstan Therapeutics for approximately **$2.1 billion upfront** in June 2025[24](index=24&type=chunk) - Completed the acquisition of Nimble Therapeutics for **$210 million upfront** in January 2025[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Entered into a license option agreement with ADARx Pharmaceuticals with a **$335 million upfront payment** and a licensing agreement with Gubra A/S with a **$350 million upfront payment**[30](index=30&type=chunk)[31](index=31&type=chunk) - The recorded accrual balance for litigation was approximately **$1.8 billion** as of June 30, 2025, down from $2.5 billion at December 31, 2024[97](index=97&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=29&type=section&id=Item%202.%20MANAGEMENT'S%20DISCUSSION%20AND%20ANALYSIS%20OF%20FINANCIAL%20CONDITION%20AND%20RESULTS%20OF%20OPERATIONS) Management discusses H1 2025 revenue growth of 7.4% to $28.8 billion, driven by key products offsetting Humira's decline, alongside analysis of margins and liquidity - For the first six months of 2025, worldwide net revenues increased **7% on a reported basis** and **8% on a constant currency basis** to **$28.8 billion**[120](index=120&type=chunk) - Strategic objectives include diversifying revenue, leveraging commercial strength, investing in the pipeline, and returning cash to shareholders[119](index=119&type=chunk) - The company is evaluating the impact of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025' and Executive Order 14297 on drug pricing[123](index=123&type=chunk)[124](index=124&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=32&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) H1 2025 net revenues rose 7.4% to $28.8 billion, as strong growth from Skyrizi and Rinvoq offset Humira's decline from biosimilar competition Key Product Revenue Growth (H1 2025 vs H1 2024, Constant Currency) | Product | H1 2025 Net Revenues (in millions) | % Change (Constant Currency) | Key Driver | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Skyrizi | $7,848 | +66.2% | Strong market share uptake across all indications. | | Rinvoq | $3,746 | +49.3% | Strong market share uptake across all indications. | | Humira | $2,301 | -54.3% | Direct biosimilar competition. | | Vraylar | $1,665 | +13.5% | Continued market share uptake and market growth. | | Botox Therapeutic | $1,794 | +15.5% | Continued market share uptake and market growth. | | Imbruvica | $1,492 | -10.7% | Decreased demand and unfavorable pricing in the U.S. | - Gross margin as a percentage of net revenues increased to **71% for H1 2025** from 69% in H1 2024, primarily due to increased leverage from revenue growth and lower amortization[152](index=152&type=chunk) - Acquired IPR&D and milestones expense for H1 2025 was **$1.07 billion**, including upfront payments for deals with Gubra A/S ($350M) and ADARx ($335M)[155](index=155&type=chunk) - Other expense, net, included a **$4.3 billion charge** for the change in fair value of contingent consideration liabilities in H1 2025, up from $2.1 billion in H1 2024, driven by higher estimated Skyrizi sales and lower discount rates[158](index=158&type=chunk) [Financial Position, Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=37&type=section&id=FINANCIAL%20POSITION%2C%20LIQUIDITY%20AND%20CAPITAL%20RESOURCES) The company maintained strong liquidity with $6.8 billion in operating cash flow, deploying capital for dividends, debt repayment, and share repurchases Capital Allocation (Six Months Ended June 30, 2025) | Activity | Amount (in millions) | | :--- | :--- | | Cash Dividend Payments | $5,835 | | Share Repurchases | $606 | | Other Acquisitions and Investments | $1,274 | | Capital Expenditures | $504 | - In H1 2025, the company issued **$4.0 billion in new senior notes** and repaid **$6.8 billion in maturing long-term debt**[162](index=162&type=chunk) - The company's stock repurchase authorization had approximately **$2.9 billion remaining** as of June 30, 2025[88](index=88&type=chunk) - In January 2025, AbbVie added a new $3.0 billion five-year revolving credit facility, bringing total revolving credit facilities to **$8.0 billion**, with no amounts outstanding as of June 30, 2025[168](index=168&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=39&type=section&id=Item%203.%20QUANTITATIVE%20AND%20QUALITATIVE%20DISCLOSURES%20ABOUT%20MARKET%20RISK) This section refers to the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, for a detailed discussion of the company's market risk - The company's discussion of market risk is incorporated by reference from its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024[175](index=175&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=39&type=section&id=Item%204.%20CONTROLS%20AND%20PROCEDURES) Management concluded that disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025, with no material changes to internal controls - The CEO and CFO evaluated and concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of the end of the reporting period[176](index=176&type=chunk) - No changes in internal control over financial reporting occurred during the quarter that have **materially affected**, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the company's internal controls[177](index=177&type=chunk) PART II. OTHER INFORMATION [Legal Proceedings](index=40&type=section&id=Item%201.%20LEGAL%20PROCEEDINGS) This section incorporates by reference the detailed information on legal proceedings from Note 12 of the financial statements - Information regarding legal proceedings is provided in Note 12 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements and is incorporated by reference[181](index=181&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=40&type=section&id=Item%202.%20UNREGISTERED%20SALES%20OF%20EQUITY%20SECURITIES%20AND%20USE%20OF%20PROCEEDS) During Q2 2025, no shares were repurchased under the public program, with approximately $2.9 billion remaining in the repurchase authorization Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q2 2025) | Period | Total Number of Shares Purchased (in thousands) | Average Price Paid per Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | April 2025 | 1,102 | $183.12 | | May 2025 | 995 | $189.46 | | June 2025 | 1,081 | $190.21 | | **Total** | **3,178** | **$187.52** | - The maximum dollar value of shares that may yet be purchased under the company's plans or programs is **$2,896,110,760**[182](index=182&type=chunk) [Other Items](index=40&type=section&id=Item%205.%20OTHER%20ITEMS) No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during Q2 2025 - No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during the three months ended June 30, 2025[183](index=183&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=41&type=section&id=Item%206.%20EXHIBITS) This section lists all exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including required certifications and interactive data files - Lists required certifications from the CEO and CFO under Rules 13a-14(a) and Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act[186](index=186&type=chunk) - Includes the iXBRL (Inline eXtensible Business Reporting Language) formatted financial statements and cover page data[186](index=186&type=chunk)

Core Insights - AbbVie has effectively managed its transition post-Humira, with strong sales from newer immunology drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, mitigating the impact of Humira's erosion [1][8] Sales Performance - Skyrizi sales increased by 62% year-over-year to $4.42 billion, while Rinvoq sales rose by 41% to $2.03 billion, driven by strong volume growth and market share gains, particularly in the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) segment [2][8] - AbbVie expects combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to exceed $25 billion in 2025, with Skyrizi's sales guidance raised to $17.1 billion and Rinvoq on track for approximately $8.2 billion [3][8] Market Position and Competition - AbbVie faces competition in the immunology space from Johnson & Johnson, which markets Stelara and Tremfya, and Eli Lilly, which has recently expanded its portfolio with the FDA approval of Omvoh for UC and CD [5][6] Valuation and Estimates - AbbVie shares are trading at a premium, with a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.58, slightly above the industry average of 14.28 and higher than its five-year mean of 12.61 [10] - Bottom-line estimate movements for 2025 and 2026 have shown mixed trends over the past week, with slight revisions in estimates [12]