Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue of $1.1 billion, a decline of 5% compared to the previous year, with comparable sales decreasing by 3% [20][21] - Adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $68 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.29 [5][22] - Gross profit dollars were $322 million, with a gross margin of 29.6%, impacted by approximately $75 million in inventory write-downs [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Eagle comparable sales were down 2%, while Aerie comparable sales declined by 4% [5][20] - Aerie faced challenges in soft apparel, particularly in fleece tops and shorts, while experiencing growth in intimates and offline categories [12][14] - American Eagle saw improvements in women's business, particularly in social casual dressing and achieved its best quarter ever in fleece [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic was up across brands and channels, but the company faced pressure from lower average unit retails (AURs) and conversion rates [20][21] - The company is working to reduce sourcing exposure to China to under 10% this year, with plans to further diversify its supply chain [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing operations and strengthening its supply chain, including closing two Edge fulfillment centers, which is expected to generate annualized savings of approximately $5 million [7][8] - Capital allocation priorities include investments for long-term growth while returning capital to shareholders, including a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program [9][23] - The company is committed to improving product performance and is preparing for the back-to-school season with fresh merchandise [24][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with first-quarter performance but remains optimistic about the second half of the year, hoping for economic stimulation from potential tax plans [28][29] - The company has paused full-year guidance until there is greater visibility but expects improvement as the year progresses [8][24] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $75 million inventory write-down due to product misses and higher costs, leading to increased promotions [5][12] - SG&A expenses increased by 2% due to higher advertising investments, with a focus on customer-facing spend [22][66] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view of the consumer today and its impact on the retail landscape? - Management is optimistic about the consumer outlook and believes that potential tax plans could stimulate the economy in the second half of the year [28][29] Question: Can you break down the assumptions for gross margin and promotional activity for the second quarter? - The company expects to maintain promotional activity to clean inventory for the back-to-school season, embedding a negative 3% comparable sales expectation [30][31] Question: What are the merchandising issues and how quickly can the company get back on trend? - Management acknowledged product issues but is working swiftly to address them, focusing on clean inventory for the back-to-school season [36][37] Question: How is the company planning its capital allocation and CapEx expenditures? - The company reduced its CapEx guidance to $275 million, recadencing projects to preserve cash in response to business conditions [46][47] Question: How did digital performance compare to stores during the quarter? - The company saw an uptick in digital channels and is leaning into this area for future growth [71] Question: What is the outlook for promotions and SG&A expenses? - The company anticipates continued promotional activity to clean inventory, with SG&A expected to remain flat for the year, focusing on advertising spend [62][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue of $1.1 billion, a decline of 5% compared to the previous year, with comparable sales decreasing by 3% [19][20] - Adjusted operating loss for the quarter was $68 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.29 [4][22] - Gross profit dollars were $322 million, with a gross margin of 29.6%, impacted by approximately $75 million in inventory write-downs [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - American Eagle brand comparable sales were down 2%, while Aerie brand comparable sales declined by 4% [4][19] - Aerie faced challenges in soft apparel, particularly in fleece tops and shorts, while certain categories like intimates showed improvement [12][14] - American Eagle saw growth in women's business, particularly in social casual dressing and achieved its best quarter ever in fleece [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic was reported to be up across brands and channels, although the overall performance was constrained by lower average unit retails (AURs) and conversion rates [19][30] - The company is focusing on diversifying its supply chain and reducing sourcing exposure to China to under 10% this year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to optimizing operations and strengthening its supply chain, including closing two Edge fulfillment centers, which is expected to generate annualized savings of approximately $5 million [6][22] - Capital allocation priorities include investments for long-term growth while returning capital to shareholders, including a $200 million accelerated share repurchase program [8][9] - The company is focused on improving product performance and preparing for the back-to-school season with fresh merchandise [24][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with the first quarter performance but remains optimistic about the second half of the year, hoping for improvement as the macro environment stabilizes [4][28] - The company has paused full-year guidance until greater visibility is achieved but expects to see improvement in growth and profitability as the year progresses [22][24] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-GAAP charge of $17 million related to the closure of fulfillment centers [6][22] - SG&A expenses increased by 2% due to higher advertising investments, with a focus on customer-facing spend [21][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the view of the consumer today and its impact on the retail landscape? - Management remains optimistic about the consumer outlook, hoping for positive economic stimulation from potential tax plans [28] Question: Can you break down the assumptions for gross margin and promotional activity in Q2? - The company expects to maintain a similar comp expectation as Q1, embedding promotional activity to clean inventory for back-to-school [30][31] Question: What are the merchandising issues and how quickly can improvements be made? - Management acknowledged product misses but is working swiftly to address these issues and prepare for back-to-school [35][36] Question: How is the capital allocation and CapEx expenditure being approached? - The company has reduced CapEx guidance to $275 million, recadencing projects to preserve cash [44] Question: How are both brands trending relative to the Q2 comp guide? - Both brands are trending similarly to the guidance of down 3% for Q2 [82] Question: What is the outlook for promotions and SG&A expenses? - Promotions are expected to continue in the near term to clean inventory, with SG&A projected to be flat for the year [59][63] Question: How did digital performance compare to stores during the quarter? - There was an uptick in digital performance, with the company leaning into this channel during the quarter [67] Question: What are the plans for inventory for the remainder of the year? - The company is planning inventory in line with sales expectations and maintaining flexibility in buying [88]

Financial Performance - American Eagle Outfitters announced preliminary financial results for Q1 2025, ending May 3, 2025[6] - The company reported a revenue increase of 12% year-over-year, reaching $1.2 billion[6] - Comparable store sales grew by 8% compared to the same quarter last year[6] - Gross margin improved to 36%, up from 34% in the previous year[6] - Future guidance estimates revenue growth of 10-15% for the full fiscal year 2025[6] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand its online presence, aiming for a 20% increase in e-commerce sales by the end of 2025[6] - New product lines are set to launch in Q3 2025, focusing on sustainable materials[6] - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to enhance its market position[6] Customer Engagement - The management highlighted a strong customer engagement strategy, with a 15% increase in loyalty program memberships[6] Supply Chain Concerns - The company remains cautious about potential supply chain disruptions impacting future performance[8]

Financial Performance - First quarter 2025 revenue decreased by 5% to $1089.6 million compared to $1143.9 million in the first quarter of 2024[40] - Comparable sales decreased by 3% compared to an increase of 7% in the prior year[24, 38] - The company reported an operating loss of $68 million[24] - Gross margin decreased to 29.6% from 40.6% in the prior year[38] - Net loss was $(64.9) million, or $(0.36) per diluted share[41] - Ending inventory decreased by 5% to $645.1 million compared to $681.1 million in the prior year[37] Brand Performance - American Eagle brand revenue decreased by 4% to $693.9 million[40] - Aerie brand revenue decreased by 3% to $359.8 million[40] Guidance - Second quarter 2025 operating income is expected to be $40 million to $45 million[32] - Second quarter 2025 comparable sales are expected to be down 3%[32]

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters reported disappointing quarterly earnings, reflecting a $75 million write-down in spring and summer merchandise, leading to the withdrawal of its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company experienced an operating loss of $85.18 million for the three-month period ending May 3, compared to a net income of $77.84 million a year earlier [4]. - Revenue decreased to $1.09 billion, consistent with expectations but down from $1.14 billion a year prior, with comparable sales down 3% [5][10]. - Loss per share was reported at 29 cents adjusted, compared to an expected loss of 22 cents [10]. Management Commentary - CEO Jay Schottenstein acknowledged the challenging first quarter and expressed disappointment with the results, emphasizing actions to improve performance in upcoming quarters [2][6]. - The company is working to align inventory with sales trends and is actively evaluating forward plans to strengthen product performance [7]. Future Guidance - AEO issued a downbeat outlook for the second quarter, expecting revenue to decline by 5% and comparable sales to decrease by 3% [6]. - The company anticipates operating income for the second quarter to be between $40 million and $45 million [6]. Industry Context - AEO is not alone in withdrawing or modifying financial guidance, as other retailers like E.l.f. Beauty and Canada Goose have also adjusted their forecasts due to trade uncertainties [8]. - The company sources nearly 20% of its products from China and aims to reduce this to below 10% by the end of the fiscal year, with potential tariff impacts of $5 million to $10 million [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is expected to report a fiscal first-quarter earnings loss of 22 cents per share and revenue of $1.09 billion, a decline from last year's earnings of 34 cents per share and revenue of $1.14 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Historical Performance - AEO anticipates a slight decline in sales for the entire year, expected to fall by low single digits [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.0 billion and reported revenue of $5.3 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $445 million and net income of $329 million [2] - Historically, AEO stock has dropped 60% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 5.4% and a maximum decline of 14% [1][2] Group 2: Post-Earnings Return Analysis - Over the past five years, AEO has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [5] - The median of the 8 positive returns is 2.4%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -5.4% [5] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can be analyzed to inform trading strategies, particularly if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is expected to report disappointing first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with significant declines in both revenue and earnings compared to the previous year [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO's fiscal first-quarter revenues is $1.1 billion, indicating a 4.6% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is a loss of 25 cents, representing a 174% decline from earnings of 34 cents reported in the year-ago quarter [2]. - Comparable sales are projected to decline nearly 3%, with American Eagle decreasing 2% and Aerie falling 4% [7]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced persistent macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer discretionary spending, including elevated household debt and inflation, which have dampened consumer confidence among younger shoppers [5]. - Management expressed disappointment with the execution of merchandising strategies, leading to increased promotions and excess inventory, resulting in an inventory charge write-down of approximately $75 million [6][8]. - AEO has withdrawn its earlier guidance for fiscal 2025 due to macro volatility [7]. Future Outlook - Despite near-term challenges, AEO is focused on long-term value creation through its Powering Profitable Growth plan, which emphasizes brand amplification and operational optimization [9]. - The company is taking steps to stabilize margins and enhance profitability by streamlining expenses and improving efficiency [9]. Valuation Perspective - AEO's shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4X, below the five-year median of 12.25X and the industry average of 17.68X, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity [11]. - Over the past six months, AEO's shares have declined by 42.4%, compared to a 10.7% decline in the industry [12].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) to report a quarterly loss of $0.19 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 155.9%, with revenues projected at $1.09 billion, down 4.6% from the previous year [1] Financial Projections - The consensus estimate for total net revenue for American Eagle is $680.05 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6.2% [4] - Analysts anticipate total net revenue for Aerie to be $357.42 million, representing a decrease of 4.1% compared to the same quarter last year [4] - The projected number of total stores at the end of the period (EOP) is 1,175, slightly up from 1,173 in the previous year [4] Store Metrics - The number of stores for the AE Brand is expected to reach 824, down from 846 in the same quarter last year [5] - The number of stand-alone Aerie stores is projected to be 326, an increase from 307 a year ago [5] - The total gross square footage is expected to be 7.27 million square feet, up from 7.22 million square feet in the previous year [6] Operating Income - Analysts forecast operating income for Aerie to be $58.72 million, down from $61.33 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The expected operating income for American Eagle is $123.95 million, a decrease from $138.59 million reported in the same quarter last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, American Eagle shares have declined by 3.4%, contrasting with a 10.7% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9] - Based on its Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), AEO is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the upcoming period [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on May 29, 2025, with a projected loss of $0.19 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 155.9% [3]. - Revenues are forecasted to be $1.09 billion, down 4.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.52% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -30.35%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of deviation from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [6][7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank increases the chances of a positive surprise, but American Eagle's current Zacks Rank is 3, making predictions uncertain [8][11]. Historical Performance - American Eagle has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of +8% when it reported earnings of $0.54 per share against an expectation of $0.50 [12][13]. Industry Comparison - Abercrombie & Fitch, a competitor in the retail apparel sector, is expected to report an EPS of $1.40, indicating a year-over-year decline of 34.6%, with revenues projected at $1.07 billion, up 5.3% [17]. - Abercrombie's consensus EPS estimate has also been revised down, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.22% and a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating challenges in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Core Insights - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Nordstrom (JWN) are competing in the Retail – Apparel and Shoes sector, each adapting to changing consumer preferences and economic challenges with distinct strategies [1][4] - Nordstrom targets an affluent demographic through a dual-channel model, combining full-line department stores with Nordstrom Rack, and emphasizes a high-touch shopping experience [2] - AEO focuses on a younger, value-conscious audience with its brands American Eagle and Aerie, leveraging trends in comfort and digital engagement [3] Nordstrom's Strategy and Performance - Nordstrom is pursuing three main goals: growing the Nordstrom brand, improving operations, and strengthening Nordstrom Rack, with a focus on inventory management and faster product delivery [5] - The company has seen significant online sales contributions, utilizing new technologies for inventory management and enhancing customer engagement [6] - Improvements in the supply chain have led to a 40% reduction in return processing time, increasing efficiency and sales potential [7] American Eagle's Strategy and Performance - AEO is implementing its Powering Profitable Growth Plan, focusing on digital innovation, supply chain automation, and customer experience [8] - The company reported strong operating income growth in Q4 of fiscal 2024, driven by effective cost controls and improved operating margins [9] - Aerie is a key growth driver for AEO, focusing on innovation and expanding customer reach in the body-positive market [10] Financial Outlook and Comparisons - AEO anticipates mid-single-digit revenue declines for Q1 of fiscal 2025, with projected operating income of $20-$25 million, impacted by a stronger U.S. dollar [12] - For fiscal 2025, AEO expects low-single-digit revenue dips and a gross margin decline, with operating income projected at $360-$375 million [13] - In contrast, Nordstrom's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively [14] Valuation and Stock Performance - Nordstrom trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.89X, below the industry average, indicating reasonable valuation [15] - AEO has a lower P/E ratio of 9.68, positioning it as a more value-oriented option [15] - Over the past year, Nordstrom has gained 16.5%, while AEO has declined by 47.9%, highlighting Nordstrom's stronger stock performance [16] Conclusion - Nordstrom is positioned as a stronger long-term investment due to consistent strategic execution and brand equity, expanding its digital capabilities [18] - AEO shows growth potential but faces volatility and uncertainty, particularly with its fiscal 2025 outlook [19] - For investors seeking stability and long-term value, Nordstrom is the preferred choice, currently rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [20]