Core Insights - Upstart Holdings and Affirm Holdings are prominent players in the fintech industry, leveraging artificial intelligence to transform traditional lending practices [1][2] - Upstart focuses on AI-driven personal loans, while Affirm is recognized for its "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) model, with differing financials and future outlooks [2] Upstart Holdings - Upstart has created an AI-based underwriting platform that surpasses traditional FICO scoring by incorporating alternative variables such as education and employment history, allowing for 92% loan automation by Q1 2025 [3] - The company is experiencing growth not only in personal loans but also in auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, with auto loan originations increasing by 42%, HELOCs by 52%, and small-dollar loans by 7% sequentially in Q1 2025 [4] - Financially, Upstart reported a 67% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1, with non-GAAP EPS turning from a loss of $0.31 to a profit of $0.30, and it anticipates 76% revenue growth in Q2 and 59% for the full year [5] - Upstart is strengthening its funding relationships, with institutional investors like Fortress Investment Group now funding over half of its originations, and it is shifting towards super-prime borrowers, who now account for 32% of personal loan originations [6] - Despite challenges such as high interest rates and a dip in contribution margin from 61% to 55%, Upstart's expanding product suite and improving credit performance position it as a resilient fintech player [7] Affirm Holdings - Affirm has established a strong BNPL brand, facilitating payment splitting at checkout through partnerships with major companies like Amazon and Shopify, and its AI platform allows for quick loan approvals [8] - The company has 21.9 million active users and 358,000 active merchants as of Q3 fiscal 2025, and is expanding into sectors like travel and home improvement while also moving towards broader banking services [9] - Affirm is pursuing international expansion, recently launching Shop Pay Installments in Canada and planning to enter the U.K., Australia, and Western Europe, although it faces competition from established players like Klarna and PayPal [10] - Financially, Affirm's Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues grew by 36% year-over-year, but this growth lags behind Upstart's performance, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.01 compared to a loss of $0.43 in the previous year [11] - Management projects Q4 revenue growth between 23% and 28%, indicating a potential slowdown [12] EPS Estimate Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 36.9% for revenue and 95.8% for EPS, but the estimate revision trend has been volatile [13] - In contrast, Upstart's estimates imply a 58.8% revenue increase and an 830% EPS increase for 2025, with a steady upward revision trend reflecting predictable performance [14][15] Price Performance & Valuation - Both companies have experienced share price fluctuations in 2025, with Affirm shares down 11.8% year-to-date and Upstart down 14% [17] - Currently, both companies have similar forward price-to-sales ratios, with Affirm at 4.46 and Upstart at 4.52 [18] Conclusion - While Affirm has built a strong consumer brand and is diversifying its financial services, it remains heavily reliant on the competitive BNPL market, with uncertain profitability and slower growth [21] - Upstart, on the other hand, is executing across multiple high-growth verticals, demonstrating operational leverage and a path towards consistent profitability, making it a more attractive investment opportunity [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has formed a new partnership with World Market, leading to a significant increase in its stock price by 15.8% following the announcement, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company's growth prospects in the flexible payment solutions sector [1][3]. Group 1: Partnership Impact - The partnership allows customers to use Affirm's buy now, pay later (BNPL) options for purchases at 246 U.S. locations and online, enabling payment splits into biweekly or monthly installments with terms up to 36 months and no hidden fees [2]. - This collaboration expands Affirm's merchant network, which already includes over 358,000 merchants, and enhances its presence in the home goods and specialty retail sectors [2][5]. - The deal is expected to support Affirm's revenue growth by increasing transaction volume and merchant fees collected through World Market sales, with total transactions rising 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million in the fiscal third quarter [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Affirm reported a 36% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, indicating strong performance and alignment with its strategy for sustainable long-term expansion [5]. - Despite a year-to-date decline of 11.8% in share price, the recent partnership announcement has helped the company recover some losses incurred after a less-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance [6]. Group 3: Market Positioning - The partnership reflects a growing retailer demand for transparent and flexible financing options, reinforcing Affirm's brand and competitive edge in the market [3]. - Zacks has set a price target of $55 for Affirm's stock following the partnership announcement, indicating positive expectations for the company's future performance [3].

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 9, 2025. The video was published on May 11, 2025. Affirm (AFRM 15.80%) is worrying stock market investors after it reported an increase in default rates among borrowers. ...

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Core Viewpoint - Affirm's shares declined following a weak revenue forecast, raising concerns about CEO Max Levchin's strategy to expand through 0% loans [1][2]. Revenue Forecast - Affirm projected revenue for the current quarter to be between $815 million and $845 million, with the midpoint falling short of the $841 million average analyst estimate [2]. Business Strategy - CEO Max Levchin is focusing on 0% loans to attract consumers and foster long-term customer loyalty, even at the cost of current profit margins [2]. - The strategy aims to educate consumers on the benefits of avoiding excessive revolving interest, positioning Affirm as a competitor to credit cards [3]. Market Position - Currently, 0% loans account for 13% of Affirm's total Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), with 80% of these loans being issued to prime and super-prime customers [3]. - Affirm's primary business involves providing point-of-sale installment loans for consumer purchases in categories such as apparel, electronics, and sporting goods [3].

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported a fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.01 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.09 per share and significantly improving from a loss of $0.43 per share in the prior-year quarter [1] Financial Performance - Total revenues increased by 36% year over year to $783.1 million, slightly missing the consensus mark by 0.1% but within management's expectations of $755-$785 million [1] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, climbing 36% year over year, exceeding both management's expectations of $8-$8.3 billion and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.1 billion [3] - Total transactions surged by 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million, driven by a significant increase in repeat customer transactions [4] - Servicing income rose by 27% year over year to $32.1 million, beating the consensus mark of $31.3 million [4] - Interest income increased by 28% year over year to $402.7 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $414.4 million [4] Revenue Breakdown - Merchant network revenues improved by 34.3% year over year to $214 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $199.5 million [5] - Card network revenues surged by 64.2% year over year to $58.6 million, attributed to higher usage of Affirm Card and virtual cards, exceeding the consensus estimate of $46.4 million [5] Expense and Losses - Total operating expenses rose by 7.4% year over year to $791.5 million, driven by increased costs in various areas including loan purchase commitments and technology expenses [6] - Provision for credit losses escalated by 20.3% year over year to $147.3 million [6] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 44.3% year over year [6] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted operating income totaled $173.7 million, more than doubling year over year, with an adjusted operating margin improving by 860 basis points to 22.2%, surpassing management's estimated range of 20-22% [7] - Affirm's net income was $2.8 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of $133.9 million in the prior-year quarter [7] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Affirm had cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion, a 33.4% increase from the fiscal 2024-end figure [8] - Total assets rose by 9.6% year over year to $10.4 billion [8] - Funding debt amounted to $1.9 billion, up 3.9% from June 30, 2024 [8] - Total stockholders' equity increased by 5.2% to $2.9 billion [8] Cash Flow - Affirm generated $210.4 million of net cash from operations during the March quarter, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year increase [9] Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Affirm forecasts GMV in the range of $9.4-$9.7 billion, up from the previous estimate of $9-$9.3 billion [10] - Revenues are anticipated to be between $815-$845 million, higher than the earlier guidance of $810-$840 million [10] - For fiscal 2025, management anticipates GMV to be in the range of $35.7-$36 billion, an increase from the earlier guidance of $34.74-$35.34 billion [12] - Revenues for fiscal 2025 are expected to be in the range of $3.163-$3.193 billion, up from the prior outlook of $3.13-$3.19 billion [12]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings Inc experienced a significant decline in share price despite reporting fiscal third-quarter results that were broadly in line with expectations [1] - The company's gross merchandise value (GMV) reached $8.6 billion, representing a 36.5% increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $8.2 billion [2] - Revenue for the quarter was reported at $783.1 million, up 35.9%, aligning with consensus expectations [3] Financial Performance - Affirm raised its fiscal fourth-quarter GMV outlook from a range of $9 billion to $9.3 billion to a new range of $9.4 billion to $9.7 billion, indicating strong execution and growth [4] - The revenue outlook for the fourth quarter was also increased from $810 million to $840 million to a new range of $815 million to $845 million [4] - Despite positive revenue and GMV growth, there were weaker-than-expected results in interest income and gain on sale revenue [3] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Affirm's shares fell by 13.71%, trading at $46.82 [4] - Analyst Kyle Peterson maintained a Hold rating on the stock, citing a lack of positive catalysts in the near term due to rising recessionary fears [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights five cloud computing-centric stocks that are expected to deliver strong returns in the short term, emphasizing their earnings and revenue growth potential for 2025 [3][4]. Group 1: Cloud Computing Overview - Cloud computing provides on-demand access to computing resources over the Internet, transitioning from traditional on-premises infrastructure to cloud-based solutions [1]. - Organizations can access shared resources from cloud service providers, which reduces operating costs and enhances productivity and scalability [2]. Group 2: Stock Picks and Performance - The selected stocks include Five9 Inc. (FIVN), Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR), and Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL), all showing strong earnings growth potential [3][4]. - Each stock has received positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 60 days and carries a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights Five9 Inc. (FIVN) - Five9 provides intelligent cloud software for contact centers, offering a virtual platform for customer service and sales functions [8]. - The company is experiencing growth due to the adoption of AI tools, with an expected revenue growth rate of 9.6% and earnings growth of 10.9% for the current year [11][10]. Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) - Affirm has diversified revenue streams and expects revenues between $3.13 billion and $3.19 billion in fiscal 2025, driven by partnerships and expanding into new markets [12][13]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 37.1%, with earnings growth projected at 96.4% for the current year [14]. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - Microsoft reported strong fiscal Q3 2025 results, driven by AI business growth and Azure cloud infrastructure [15][16]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 13.7%, with earnings growth of 12.7% for the current year [17]. Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) - Juniper Networks reported strong Q1 2025 results, benefiting from demand for AI-driven enterprise solutions and data center virtualization [18][19]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 7.3%, with earnings growth of 21.5% for the current year [20]. Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL) - Tyler Technologies is capitalizing on the public sector's shift to cloud-based systems and the hybrid working trend, with an expected revenue growth rate of 8.9% and earnings growth of 15.6% for the current year [21][22].

Core Insights - Affirm experienced significant growth in its fiscal third quarter, with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues both increasing 36% year over year to $8.6 billion and $783 million, respectively, although guidance indicates a slight deceleration in growth rates ahead [1][3][5] Financial Performance - The Affirm Card's GMV surged 115% year over year to $807 million, with 2 million active cardholders, contributing to a total of 21.9 million active consumers, up 23% from a year ago [6][1] - Revenues rose 36% to $783 million, with 0% APR monthly installments growing by 44%, accounting for 13% of the company's GMV [4][5] - Merchant counts increased by 20% to 358,000, while charge-offs are trending toward 3.5% and loss rates for Pay in 4 loans are below 1% [6] Guidance and Future Outlook - Guidance for the current quarter anticipates revenues between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, slightly below the Street's consensus of $840 million [7] - The company expects year-on-year growth of 34%, down from the 36% growth seen in the last quarter, with elevated growth rates observed in April [9] Macroeconomic Considerations - Affirm expressed confidence in managing various macroeconomic environments, anticipating increased demand for payment flexibility during stress scenarios [2][9] - The company estimates that in a recession scenario with a ~50% increase in credit stress, a reduction in approvals could cost about 10 percentage points of GMV growth [9] Consumer Behavior and Credit Reporting - Affirm noted healthy repayment rates and a slight uptick in prepayments, indicating positive credit signals [7] - The company highlighted the importance of credit reporting, stating that timely repayments help consumers build their credit history and improve their credit scores [10]

Market Overview - Markets experienced a rise due to optimistic sentiment surrounding trade deals with U.S. partners, particularly following an agreement with the UK that maintained a +10% tariff [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by +254 points (+0.62%), while the S&P 500 rose by +0.58%. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 saw even larger gains of +1.07% and +1.85%, respectively [2] Earnings Reports - Expedia (EXPE) reported Q1 earnings of $0.40 per share, missing the Zacks consensus of $0.42, despite a +90% year-over-year increase. Revenues were $2.99 billion, below the expected $3.03 billion, leading to a -6.7% decline in after-hours trading [3] - Affirm (AFRM) exceeded bottom line expectations with earnings of +$0.01 per share against a forecast of -$0.08. Revenues matched estimates at $783 million, while Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rose +36% year over year. However, shares fell -8% in late trading [3] - DraftKings (DKNG) reported a bottom line of -$0.07 per share, an improvement from the projected -$0.30. Revenues of $1.41 billion grew +20% year over year but missed the Zacks consensus of $1.42 billion. The company lowered revenue guidance and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, yet shares rose +3% in post-market trading [4]