Affirm (NasdaqGS:AFRM) Fireside Chat December 16, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsRob O'Hare - CFOConference Call ParticipantsMatt Cotes - AnalystMatt CotesEverybody, trickle in here for a second before we start. Okay, awesome, so my name's Matt Cotes. I work at Truist Securities, covering Payments and Fintech, and I'm really pleased to be joined by Rob O'Hare here. Rob has been with the firm for a little bit over five years now, and he's been in his current seat as CFO for a little bit over one year. ...

Group 1 - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 100 points on Tuesday [1] - Cementos Pacasmayo SAA – ADR shares surged 47.4% to $10.30 following Holcim's agreement to acquire 50.01% of its owner, Inversiones Aspi. S.A. [1] Group 2 - Rezolve AI PLC reported preliminary December revenue results, leading to a 23.7% increase in its stock price to $2.87 [2] - Emerald Holding Inc announced a review of potential strategic options, resulting in a 17% rise in its stock price to $4.14 [2] - NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc's stock increased by 16.2% to $3.15 [2] - Tilray Brands Inc saw a 15% surge in its stock price to $12.57 [2] - Clearpoint Neuro Inc's stock jumped 14.2% to $14.14 [2] - Fermi Inc gained 11.4%, reaching $9.57 [2] - Sezzle Inc authorized a $100 million stock buyback, leading to a 9.6% increase in its stock price to $72.49 [2] - WW International Inc launched a new platform for the GLP-1 era, resulting in a 7.8% gain to $26.19 [2] - Circle Internet Group Inc rose 7.7% to $81.24 [2] - Lemonade Inc's stock surged 7.4% to $80.59 [2] - Netskope Inc gained 6.9%, reaching $20.37 [2] - Ascentage Pharma Group International's stock rose 6% to $29.26 [2] - RH's stock increased by 5.5% to $172.60, with Barclays analyst maintaining an Overweight rating and lowering the price target from $385 to $283 [2] - Affirm Holdings Inc gained 4.4%, reaching $68.56 [2]

A little over a month ago, we got a really impressive quarter from a firm holdings. The buy now pay later powerhouse. This guy's posted a 12-cent earnings beat off an 11centent basis with much higher than expected revenue.The stock shot up more than 11% the next day, reaching a high of $79 and change a couple days later. Since then though, a firm has gradually drifted lower because of concerns about the state of the consumer to the point where it's now back to $65 and change. trading like that great quarter ...

But I remember when I look at a a card company like Capital One, I always say, you know what, there are people who don't pay and because of them, I'm paying a huge amount. Now, how about we just cut out all the people who don't pay and then I can I don't have to pay much at all. Correct.>> You're summarizing our business model pretty well right there. If you get really good at underwriting, you don't have to charge late fees. You don't have to throw in some hidden charges here and there. you most certainly ...

In a Monday interview with CNB's Jim Cramer, Affirm CEO Max Levchin reviewed his company's strategy, suggesting the buy now, pay later outfit benefits from not charging its customers late fees."We have total alignment with our consumers. If they don't pay us back, we just lose money," Levchin said. "There's no magic in the business model, and that transparency aligns us fully with that person."According to Levchin, late fees aren't necessary "if you get really good at underwriting." He advocated for more cl ...

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) is recognized as one of the most promising fintech stocks, with analysts providing mixed but generally positive ratings and price targets, indicating potential for growth in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Susquehanna reaffirmed a Buy rating on Affirm Holdings with a price target of $105 [1] - Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a Peerperform rating and a year-end 2026 fair value range of $72-$82, expecting fiscal year 2026 revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) to reach $1.95 billion, slightly above the Street consensus of $1.92 billion [2] - Freedom Capital Markets assigned a Buy rating with a $90 price target, viewing Affirm as a leading provider of BNPL options in the US [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Growth Initiatives - Affirm has made significant progress in profitability and growth through initiatives like 0% APR installment loans, the Affirm Card, and international expansion [3] - The company has experienced strong US market share growth, achieving GAAP profitability in the last three quarters, and is viewed as a "+mid-20s grower" with high-20s adjusted operating income margins [4] - Affirm's platform includes point-of-sale payment options, a consumer app, the Affirm Card, and merchant services, positioning it well in the fintech landscape [5]

Core Insights - The fintech sector is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.2% from 2025 to 2032, as consumers increasingly shift from traditional banks to digital financial services [2][3] Robinhood - Robinhood has disrupted traditional brokerage models with commission-free trades and a user-friendly app, doubling its funded customers from 12.5 million in 2020 to 25.2 million in 2024 [5] - By Q3 2025, Robinhood's funded customers reached 26.8 million, with Gold subscribers increasing by 77% year-over-year to 3.9 million [6] - Analysts forecast Robinhood's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 27% and 37% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by its expansion into a comprehensive fintech platform [7][8] Affirm - Affirm specializes in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services, allowing consumers to make purchases in installments without credit cards, which appeals to lower-income consumers and merchants seeking lower fees [9][10] - From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025, Affirm's active consumers grew from 7.1 million to 23 million, and its gross merchandise volume increased from $8.3 billion to $36.7 billion [10] - Analysts predict Affirm's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 25% and 131% respectively from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating strong growth potential [12][13]

Core Insights - SoFi and Affirm are both high-growth fintech companies aiming to disrupt traditional financial institutions, with SoFi offering a wide range of financial services and Affirm focusing on "buy now, pay later" solutions [1][2] SoFi Overview - SoFi has expanded its services from student loans to include mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, credit cards, insurance, estate planning, stock trading, and banking, positioning itself as a comprehensive digital financial platform [1][4] - The company targets younger, digitally native users and has grown significantly, quadrupling its member base from 2.5 million in 2021 to 10.1 million in 2024, with projections to reach 12.6 million by Q3 2025 [7][8] - SoFi's revenue and adjusted EBITDA are expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by its loan platform business, increased deposits, and new features [9] Affirm Overview - Affirm's BNPL platform caters to younger and lower-income consumers, offering microloans without compound interest or hidden fees, and has seen significant growth, with active consumers increasing from 7.1 million in fiscal 2021 to 23 million in fiscal 2025 [10][11] - The company has secured partnerships with major merchants like Amazon and Walmart, contributing to its gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth from $8.3 billion to $36.7 billion during the same period [11] - Analysts expect Affirm's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% from fiscal 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA projected to increase at a CAGR of 131% through 2028, supported by the growing usage of its Affirm Card and international expansion [14] Valuation Comparison - SoFi has an enterprise value of $32.5 billion, trading at 31 times this year's adjusted EBITDA, while Affirm has an enterprise value of $27.2 billion, trading at 24 times this year's adjusted EBITDA [15] - Despite both companies being strong growth stocks, Affirm is considered more attractive due to its narrower focus, superior growth rates, and lower valuations [15]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is rapidly expanding its merchant network, enhancing its position in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market with a 30% year-over-year increase in active merchants to 419,000 in Q1 FY26 [1][8] Merchant Network Expansion - The expanding ecosystem allows AFRM to strengthen its presence in both small-ticket and big-ticket purchases, creating more opportunities for transaction volume growth and user engagement [2] - The flexible payment technology offered by AFRM aids merchants in improving checkout experiences and boosting conversion rates [2] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth is keeping pace with the expansion, with total revenues increasing by 34% year over year in Q1 FY26, supported by initiatives like the Affirm Card that promote deeper adoption and frequent usage [3][8] - Smaller purchases and interest-free plans contribute to user engagement, establishing long-term usage habits that are expected to enhance revenues as repeat customers and larger transactions increase [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include Klarna Group plc (KLAR) with a merchant network of 850,000 and 3.4 million daily transactions, reporting a 28% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [5] - PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) reported 438 million active accounts and a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $8.4 billion in Q3 2025, with total payment volume rising by 8% [6] Valuation and Estimates - AFRM shares have gained 13.3% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 9.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 5.09, above the industry average of 4.92, with a Zacks Value Score of D [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies a 566.7% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 26% year-over-year [10]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing a significant increase in active consumers, with a 24% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by higher retention rates and new consumer acquisitions through partnerships [1][8] - The company's transparent, interest-free payment options are particularly appealing to younger shoppers, contributing to a broader shift towards pay-over-time models in digital commerce [2] - Total transactions increased by 52.2% year-over-year in the first quarter, leading to a 33.6% growth in total revenues, largely due to repeat customer transactions [3][8] Business Environment - Despite positive growth indicators, the company faces challenges such as higher funding costs, evolving buy now, pay later (BNPL) regulations, and changes in consumer borrowing behavior [4] - Competitors like Klarna Group plc and PayPal Holdings, Inc. are also performing well, with Klarna reporting a 32% year-over-year increase in active users and PayPal showing a 7% increase in net revenues [5][6] Financial Performance - Affirm's shares have gained 11.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 10.2% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 5.03, above the industry average of 4.98, indicating a higher valuation compared to peers [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a remarkable 566.7% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 26% year-over-year [12]