Key Takeaways Klarna's planned $14B U.S. IPO rattled Affirm shares' growth despite its strong fiscal Q4 results.Klarna boasts 111M users and $31.2B GMV, while Affirm logged 23M users and $10.4B GMV.Affirm is pushing global growth, expanding in Europe through its Shopify partnership and U.K. success.The buy now, pay later (BNPL) arena is getting a lot more interesting as Klarna, the Swedish payments firm, is heading for Wall Street with a U.S. IPO that could value it around $14 billion. For Affirm Holdings, ...

Core Viewpoint - The fintech sector is experiencing a resurgence in 2025, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and ongoing innovation in digital banking, lending, and payments [1][15]. Group 1: DLocal - DLocal specializes in cross-border payments for global merchants in emerging markets, addressing gaps in traditional financial infrastructure [3]. - Following a strong Q2 earnings report, DLocal's stock surged over 40%, maintaining a nearly 20% increase year-to-date [4]. - The Q2 report revealed a record Total Payment Volume (TPV) of $9.2 billion, a 53% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $256.5 million, exceeding estimates by 11.8% [5][6]. Group 2: Affirm Holdings - Affirm, a pioneer in the buy-now-pay-later space, has seen its shares rise approximately 47% year-to-date, recovering from earlier losses [7]. - The company's fiscal Q4 earnings showed EPS of 20 cents, surpassing estimates, and revenue increased nearly 33% year-over-year to $876.4 million [8][9]. - Despite concerns over consumer credit risks, Affirm's latest results have bolstered investor confidence in its business model [9]. Group 3: SoFi Technologies - SoFi has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, with stock gains exceeding 65% year-to-date, transitioning from a student lending focus to a diversified digital bank [11]. - The Q2 results indicated EPS of 8 cents and revenue of $858.2 million, reflecting a 43% year-over-year growth [12]. - The stock is consolidating near 52-week highs, with potential for further gains if it surpasses the $26 key level [13]. Group 4: Overall Fintech Sector Performance - The fintech sector remains volatile, but companies like DLocal, Affirm, and SoFi are demonstrating strong earnings and renewed investor interest [14]. - The outlook for these companies could improve further with the anticipated backdrop of lower interest rates and increased digital adoption [15].

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has differentiated itself in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market by focusing on real-time underwriting as a core strategy, aiming to minimize defaults while providing consumer flexibility [1][4] - The company's proprietary data models assess each transaction based on multiple factors, allowing for continuous improvement in risk assessment and efficiency [2][8] - With over 13 years of underwriting experience and managing more than $100 billion in loans, Affirm has a significant advantage in predicting repayment behaviors across various credit profiles [3][8] Competitor Analysis - Competitors like PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) also employ robust credit risk management strategies, with PayPal blending initial underwriting with ongoing assessments to maintain high credit quality [5] - Sezzle's gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 74.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025, indicating strong performance in the BNPL sector [6] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, AFRM's shares have increased by 47.2%, outperforming the industry average rise of 18.4% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 7.10, which is above the industry average of 5.62, indicating a premium valuation [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 433.3% growth in earnings for fiscal 2026 compared to the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 23.1% year-over-year [10]

Core Insights - Affirm's fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report showed significant performance, with shares rising nearly 11% following the announcement [1] - The company reported revenue exceeding $876 million, reflecting a growth rate of just under 33%, surpassing consensus estimates of less than 27% [1] - Affirm achieved a non-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 20 cents, nearly double the analyst consensus forecast of 11 cents, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive non-adjusted EPS [2] Financial Performance - Affirm posted its first quarter of positive non-adjusted operating income at $58 million, indicating a shift towards profitability alongside its high growth [3] - The fiscal Q1 revenue guidance suggests a deceleration in growth, with a midpoint revenue estimate of $870 million, indicating a growth rate of 24.5% [4] - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by nearly 44%, the highest rate in at least six quarters, with projections for at least 25% GMV growth in fiscal 2026 [5] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have raised their price targets for Affirm by 40% or more following the earnings report, with an average revised target nearing $97, indicating over 13% upside from the current trading price [8] - The updated targets suggest a shift in analyst sentiment from caution to optimism regarding Affirm's future performance [8] - Affirm's forward enterprise value to sales (EV/S) ratio stands at 8.6x, significantly higher than its average of around 5.8x over the past three years, necessitating continued profitable growth to justify this valuation [11]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has experienced significant stock volatility following its fiscal Q4 2025 results, initially rising 10.6% but later declining 3.6% due to competitive pressures from Klarna's upcoming U.S. IPO [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Affirm reported Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings of $0.20 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.11 and improving from a loss of $0.14 in the prior year [3] - Revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $876.4 million, exceeding the consensus estimate by 4.4% [3] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $10.4 billion, a 43% increase from the previous year, and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.5 billion [4] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Repeat customers accounted for 95% of transactions in Q4, indicating strong brand loyalty and predictable revenue streams [4] - The demand for 0% APR plans surged by 93% year-over-year, representing 14% of GMV, which is a significant growth driver [5] - Affirm is expanding its operations into Western Europe through a partnership with Shopify, starting with France, Germany, and the Netherlands, which is expected to unlock substantial growth potential [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates GMV for fiscal 2026 to exceed $46 billion, up from $36.7 billion in the prior year, with revenues projected to be 8.4% of GMV [7] - Adjusted operating margin is expected to rise to over 26.1% in fiscal 2026, compared to 24.1% in fiscal 2025 [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 427% year-over-year increase to $0.79 per share, with fiscal 2027 earnings expected to grow nearly 78.7% [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Klarna's entry into the U.S. market and Walmart's switch from Affirm to Klarna highlight the intensifying competition in the BNPL space [18] - Affirm's long-term debt stood at $7.8 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 71.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.7% [17] - Affirm's stock has increased by 40% year-to-date, outperforming major competitors like PayPal and Block, which have seen declines of 18.5% and 10.9%, respectively [11]

On CNBC's “Mad Money Lightning Round,” Jim Cramer recommended selling neobank Chime Financial, Inc‘s CHYM stock and buying Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM.San Francisco-based Chime Financial, on Aug. 22, announced a strategic partnership with Workday WDAY to advance financial wellness in the workplace.Affirm, a buy-now-pay-later lender that lets consumers split purchases into installments, posted earnings of 20 cents per share, ahead of analyst expectations of 10 cents. The firm, also based in San Francisco, rep ...

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is enhancing its 0% annual percentage rate (APR) monthly installment loan offerings to increase consumer spending and expand its presence in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market, positioning itself as a consumer-friendly alternative to traditional credit cards [1][8] Company Strategy - The company aims to convert first-time users into loyal customers by emphasizing affordability and value, which simplifies the checkout process for larger purchases [2] - Affirm earns fees from merchants for facilitating sales, particularly benefiting from higher fees associated with 0% APR financing products [2] Performance Metrics - In Q4 FY25, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) from 0% APR monthly installment loans increased by 93% year over year [3] - The visibility and accessibility of 0% APR offers on the Affirm Card led to a more than tripling of 0% APR GMV on the card compared to the previous year [3] - Spending in stores using the Affirm Card surged by 187% year over year in the same quarter, indicating strong consumer demand for interest-free installment options [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL), with PayPal reporting 438 million active accounts and a 5% year-over-year increase in net revenues in Q2 2025 [5] - Sezzle's GMV grew by 74.2% year over year in Q2 2025, with total transactions rising by 62.6% to 8.2 million and a repeat usage rate of 96.4% [6] Financial Overview - Year-to-date, AFRM's shares have increased by 35%, outperforming the industry average rise of 19.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 6.52, above the industry average of 5.68, and it carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 400% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 19.6% year over year [10]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings has experienced a significant 40% year-to-date surge, raising questions about its current valuation and attractiveness as an investment opportunity [2] - Despite strong operational and financial performance, the company's current valuation appears high compared to historical averages and the broader market [3][10] Financial Performance - Affirm's revenues have grown substantially, with a 38.8% increase from $2.3 billion to $3.2 billion over the last 12 months, compared to a 5.1% growth for the S&P 500 [7] - The company has an average revenue growth rate of 34.3% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 5.3% [7] - Quarterly revenues increased by 33.0% to $876 million from $659 million year-over-year, while the S&P 500 saw a 6.1% improvement [7] Valuation Metrics - Affirm's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 9.0, compared to 3.3 for the S&P 500, indicating a higher valuation [7] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 48.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 21.4 [7] - The current valuation of 9.4 times trailing revenue is above its three-year average P/S ratio of 8.9, suggesting limited upside potential in the near term [10] Profitability and Financial Stability - Affirm's operating income over the last four quarters was $338 million, resulting in an operating margin of 10.5%, lower than the S&P 500's 18.6% [13] - The operating cash flow (OCF) was $794 million, yielding a high OCF margin of 24.6%, above the S&P 500's 20.2% [13] - The company's net income was $52 million, reflecting a net income margin of 1.6%, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.7% [13] - Affirm's debt stands at $7.9 billion, with a market capitalization of $29 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 27.1%, higher than the S&P 500's 20.3% [13] Downturn Resilience - Affirm's stock has shown weak resilience during downturns, having fallen 94.7% from a high of $168.52 in November 2021 to $8.91 in December 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [14] - The stock has not yet recovered to its pre-crisis high, with a recent peak of $88.46 on September 1, 2025 [14] Overall Assessment - Affirm is characterized by very strong growth, moderate profitability, strong financial stability, and weak downturn resilience, leading to an overall strong assessment [14]

格隆汇9月2日｜瑞穗证券将金融科技公司Affirm Holdings目标价从70美元上调至108美元。 ...

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is launching the Affirm Card, which combines features of traditional debit and credit cards, allowing users to pay upfront, in installments, or through personalized financing offers [1][4] - The card aims to attract modern consumers seeking control and flexibility in their spending, helping Affirm to transform one-time shoppers into repeat customers and strengthen merchant relationships [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Affirm reported a Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $1.2 billion for the Affirm Card, a 132% increase year over year, with active cardholders rising 97% to 2.3 million [3][8] - In-store transactions using the Affirm Card increased by 187% year over year, indicating a growing preference for the card in everyday purchases [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal and Sezzle are also performing well, with PayPal reporting 438 million active accounts and net revenues of $8.3 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase [5] - Sezzle reported 2.9 million active consumers and total revenues of $98.7 million, growing 76.4% year over year [6] Valuation and Estimates - Affirm's shares have increased by 101.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 39.6% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a 400% growth from the previous year, with a revenue growth estimate of 19.6% year over year [9] - Affirm currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.02, above the industry average of 5.71, indicating a lower value score [11]