Company Overview - Upstart is a small-cap fintech company with a current market cap of approximately $4.5 billion, significantly below its all-time high by about 88% [2][3] - The company is projected to achieve its first billion-dollar revenue year in 2025, indicating strong growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - Upstart reported an origination volume of $2.8 billion, reflecting a 154% year-over-year increase [7] - Revenue reached $257 million, more than double the amount from the previous year [7] - The company achieved a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin and GAAP profitability for the first time in years [7] Market Potential - The U.S. personal loan market exceeds $100 billion annually, with Upstart's predictive methods for loan defaults proving more effective than traditional approaches [4] - Upstart's newer verticals, including auto loans and home loans, are experiencing significant growth, with auto loan originations increasing sixfold and home loan originations growing 67% sequentially [5] - The potential for home equity loans is substantial, given that U.S. homeowners currently hold $35 trillion in home equity, presenting a significant opportunity as interest rates decline [5] Competitive Landscape - Upstart is positioned to potentially surpass Affirm, a leader in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) space, which has a market cap of $23.5 billion, approximately five times that of Upstart [2][3] - Despite Affirm's strong performance and effective leadership, Upstart's growth opportunities in a challenging lending environment are encouraging [3]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings has reported positive GAAP net income for the first time since fiscal 2019, which may mislead investors regarding its financial health [9][5] - Despite top-line growth, the company continues to experience negative Core Earnings and significant cash burn, indicating underlying financial instability [4][11] - The stock valuation implies unrealistic growth expectations, suggesting a potential decline in stock price [7][31] Financial Performance - In fiscal 4Q25, Affirm's revenue and gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 33% and 43% year-over-year, respectively [8] - For the full fiscal year 2025, revenue and GMV increased by 39% and 38% year-over-year [8] - Affirm reported an operating loss of -$87 million in fiscal 2025, while generating $149 million in non-operating income, leading to positive GAAP net income [12][11] Profitability Analysis - Affirm has not achieved positive operating profit or Core Earnings since fiscal 2019, raising questions about the sustainability of its reported GAAP profits [11][13] - Total operating expenses in fiscal 2025 were 103% of revenue, contributing to negative operating income [15] - The company has burned through a cumulative $5.1 billion in free cash flow (FCF) from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025 [17] Market Position and Competition - Affirm's stock price suggests it would need to grow GMV to nearly two-thirds of Amazon's fiscal 2024 GMV to justify its current valuation [28] - Compared to competitors like PayPal, Affirm lacks scale and competitive advantages, which impacts its profitability [21][25] - The buy now pay later (BNPL) market is highly competitive, with Affirm and Klarna struggling to generate profits compared to larger financial institutions [22][24] Valuation Concerns - Current stock price implies that Affirm's revenue would need to reach $42.8 billion by fiscal 2035, which is 13.3 times higher than fiscal 2025 revenue [27] - Alternative scenarios suggest significant downside risk, with potential stock values ranging from $28 to $45 per share based on different growth assumptions [31][33] - Affirm's economic book value is estimated at -$2 per share, indicating that equity investors may not see positive economic earnings under normal operations [36]

Core Viewpoint - Hi-View Resources Inc. has announced a non-brokered private placement to raise up to $1,000,000 through the issuance of 5,000,000 units at $0.20 per unit, with each unit consisting of one common share and half a warrant [1][2] Group 1: Private Placement Details - The private placement will consist of up to 5,000,000 units priced at $0.20 each, aiming for gross proceeds of up to $1,000,000 [1] - Each unit includes one common share and half of a transferable common share purchase warrant, with each whole warrant allowing the purchase of an additional share at $0.30 for 24 months [1] - The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including settling arm's-length payables [2] Group 2: Debt Settlement - The company will issue 730,808 common shares at $0.20 per share to settle $146,161.60 of debt owed to related parties [1] Group 3: Company Overview - Hi-View Resources Inc. is a publicly listed mineral exploration company focused on gold, silver, and copper assets in the Toodoggone region of northern British Columbia [4] - The company holds over 27,791 hectares of projects, including the flagship Golden Stranger Project, and has additional properties under option and claim application [4]

Core Insights - Affirm is expanding its partnership with New York Life Insurance, indicating a trend where traditional financial institutions are increasingly engaging with fintech-driven consumer lending [1][2] - Under the new agreement, New York Life will purchase up to $750 million worth of Affirm's installment loans through 2026, which will support approximately $1.75 billion in annual loan volume for Affirm [1] - The partnership builds on a relationship initiated in 2023, where New York Life began investing in Affirm's asset-backed securities, contributing nearly $2 billion to Affirm's collateral pools to date [2] - This collaboration reflects a broader trend of insurers and private-credit investors entering consumer finance, driven by the attractiveness of these assets amid rising interest rates [2]

Core Industry Trends - Software stocks are benefiting from the digitalization wave and strong adoption of AI, including generative AI and Agentic AI [1] - The proliferation of SaaS, migration to cloud platforms, and demand for hybrid work solutions are major tailwinds for software companies [1] - Increased customer-centric approaches and subscription-based models are driving recurring revenues and affordability for small and medium-sized businesses [5] Factors Supporting Software Stocks - The rise of AI-powered applications in various sectors, including voice recognition and telemedicine, is positively impacting software companies [2] - The adoption of cloud-based services, IoT, AR/VR devices, and 5G deployment is aiding software stock performance [3] - Rising cyber threats are prompting enterprises to invest more in cloud-based security solutions, shifting preference towards software-defined models [4] Company-Specific Insights - CoreWeave is expected to report revenues between $1.26 billion and $1.3 billion, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 207% and a backlog of $30.1 billion [8][9] - BILL Holdings anticipates first-quarter revenues of $390.6 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, while earnings are projected to decline by 19.1% [11] - Affirm Holdings expects first-quarter revenues of $885 million, indicating a 26.7% year-over-year growth, with earnings per share improving from a loss of 31 cents to a profit of 11 cents [14][15] - Unity Software forecasts revenues of $447.6 million for the third quarter, with a slight year-over-year growth of 0.2% and an expected earnings per share improvement from a loss of 31 cents [17] Strategic Developments - CoreWeave is capitalizing on the generative AI boom, focusing on scaling capacity and enhancing services to drive strong momentum [10] - BILL is leveraging AI to enhance its solutions for SMBs and is integrating generative AI to improve customer experience [12][13] - Affirm is expanding its partnerships and entering new markets, including the U.K. and Western Europe, to drive growth [16] - Unity Software is transitioning its product mix towards the AI-powered Unity Vector platform, which is expected to deliver long-term value despite short-term revenue friction [18][19]

Core Insights - Buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers such as Klarna Group, Affirm Holdings, and Afterpay are increasingly offering services traditionally associated with banks, including debit cards and deposit accounts [1][2] - These companies are positioning themselves as one-stop shops for payments and financial services, expanding their consumer reach and intensifying competition with traditional banks [2][5] Company Developments - Klarna has announced the extension of its debit card and customer deposit accounts into the U.K., following similar rollouts in Europe and the U.S., as part of its mission to disrupt retail banking [4] - Block is leveraging its Cash App debit card to promote its BNPL service, Afterpay, with the CFO noting the integration of Afterpay into the Cash App earlier this year [4] - Affirm Holdings has also introduced a debit card, which has reached 2.3 million active users, indicating a successful strategy in competing with traditional banks [5] User Engagement - Afterpay on Cash App has surpassed one million active monthly users as of July, contributing to the card's total of 26 million monthly active users [6] - The growing user base of BNPL services highlights the increasing acceptance and integration of these financial products among consumers [6] Industry Trends - The trend of BNPL companies blurring the lines between banks and fintechs is becoming more pronounced, with industry experts noting their success in competing with traditional banking services [5] - In response to the rise of BNPL providers, many banks and credit card issuers have begun to introduce their own BNPL products, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [6]

Industry Overview - Mobile payments are transforming financial transactions, moving from physical cash to digital transactions through smartphones, tablets, and wearables, creating a dynamic financial ecosystem [2][3] - The global mobile payments market is projected to grow from $3.84 trillion in 2024 to $26.53 trillion by 2032, reflecting a 27% CAGR, indicating strong momentum in the sector [6] Technological Advancements - Emerging technologies like blockchain and artificial intelligence are enhancing transparency, fraud detection, and transaction speeds, while "super apps" are integrating messaging and shopping into seamless financial experiences [3][4] - Companies are leveraging advanced technologies such as Near Field Communication (NFC) and QR codes to facilitate mobile payments [2] Key Players - Capital One is enhancing its mobile payments leadership with a digital-first banking ecosystem, integrating its mobile app with digital wallets and offering a comprehensive financial hub [8][9][10] - NCR Voyix is innovating in mobile payments for retail and restaurants, introducing solutions like Aloha Pay-At-Table, which improves transaction speed and customer experience [11][12][13] - Affirm is expanding its mobile payments presence through its Buy Now, Pay Later platform, integrating with digital wallets and planning international expansion [14][15][16] - Marqeta is powering mobile payments with its card-issuing platform and has seen a 29% year-over-year increase in total payments volume, while also bridging crypto and fiat transactions [17][18][19] Market Dynamics - The rise of e-commerce and improved digital infrastructure are driving the adoption of modern payment platforms, which serve as comprehensive financial dashboards [5] - Regulatory initiatives are evolving to enhance security, data privacy, and financial inclusion, keeping pace with the rapid growth of mobile payments [6]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has announced a significant expansion of its partnership with Worldpay, which is expected to enhance its buy now, pay later (BNPL) services and improve its market presence [1][2]. Partnership Expansion - The collaboration integrates Affirm's BNPL services into Worldpay's embedded payments suite for software platforms, allowing SaaS providers to offer Affirm at checkout [2][3]. - Worldpay for Platforms supports over 1,000 SaaS providers and processed more than $400 billion in transactions in the past year [3]. Consumer Benefits - The integration enables merchants to provide consumers with transparent, flexible payment options for purchases ranging from $35 to $30,000, targeting those seeking predictable, interest-free or low-interest payment schedules [3][4]. Executive Insights - Affirm's Chief Revenue Officer, Wayne Pommen, emphasized that the partnership simplifies the shopping process and expands Affirm's reach across various platforms and merchants [4]. - Worldpay's President, Matt Downs, highlighted Affirm's effectiveness in delivering results for businesses and enhancing consumer experiences, making it an ideal BNPL partner [5]. Market Performance - Affirm's stock (AFRM) has seen a significant increase of over 81% in the past year, with shares trading higher by 6.69% to $76.74 recently [6].

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings has announced an expanded partnership with Worldpay to integrate its payment services into software platforms [1] Company Developments - The new deal will allow Affirm to be included in Worldpay's embedded payments offering, enabling software platforms to provide Affirm as a payment option for their merchants [1]

Core Thesis - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is positioned as a leading player in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) sector, benefiting from a shift towards flexible consumer credit and digital payments [2][3] - The stock is currently trading at an attractive valuation, with a forward free cash flow multiple of 27x, despite expected growth of nearly 28% year over year [3] Business Fundamentals - Affirm's business fundamentals are strong, with growth momentum in its core lending and merchant network segments [2] - The company has a scalable platform, expanding merchant partnerships, and strong consumer engagement, which positions it well against traditional credit systems [3] Market Sentiment - There is a disconnect between Affirm's operational progress and market sentiment, as investors remain skeptical about the sustainability and profitability of the BNPL model [2][3] Financial Outlook - Affirm's disciplined credit underwriting and increasing repeat customer activity indicate improving unit economics and a clearer path to sustained profitability [3] - The long-term thesis suggests that as the market recognizes Affirm's earnings power and cash flow generation, there could be multiple expansions, with a fair value target of $140 per share by early 2027 [4] Investment Opportunity - Affirm represents a high-conviction growth opportunity with a favorable risk/reward profile for long-term investors, especially as macro conditions stabilize for consumer spending [4]