Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with a notable increase in both earnings per share and revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were reported at 23 cents per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of 11 cents [2]. - Revenue for the quarter reached $933.33 million, exceeding the Street estimate of $883.14 million and showing a significant increase from $698.47 million in the same period last year [2]. Management Commentary - CEO Max Levchin highlighted the achievement of setting a record for Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) in a quarter with few shopping holidays, emphasizing the team's consistent performance and growth [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates second-quarter revenue to be between $1.03 billion and $1.06 billion, slightly below the analyst estimate of $1.05 billion [4]. - Following the earnings report, Affirm's stock price increased by 10.10%, reaching $72.62 in extended trading [4].

affirm) First Fiscal Quarter 2026 Shareholder Letter a) ·1234 (0) Pay over time Pay in full <> Purchasing power > Plan a purchase Get your vintage deep cuts for as a low as 0% APR. Shop now → Fellow Affirm Shareholders, We delivered another set of stellar results to get fiscal 2026 started, in both growth and profitability rubrics. Gross Merchandise Volume Revenue Less Transaction ("GMV") Revenue Costs ("RLTC")1 +42% +34% +60% Operating Income Adjusted Operating Income1 Net Income As a percent of Revenue As ...

Core Insights - Financial giants are showing a bearish sentiment towards Affirm Holdings, with 40% of traders indicating bearish tendencies compared to 32% bullish [1] - The unusual options activity includes 36 puts valued at $2,964,102 and 19 calls valued at $1,047,736, indicating a significant focus on downside protection [1] - Analysts have set an average price target of $93.25 for Affirm Holdings, with varying ratings from different firms [11][12] Options Activity - Over the last 3 months, whales have targeted a price range for Affirm Holdings between $40.0 and $150.0 [2] - The analysis of volume and open interest reveals key insights into liquidity and interest levels for Affirm Holdings' options [3] - The largest options trades include multiple puts with varying sentiments, indicating mixed expectations among traders [9] Company Overview - Affirm Holdings Inc provides a digital and mobile-first commerce platform, generating revenue primarily from merchant networks and virtual card networks [10] - The company derives most of its revenue from the United States, followed by Canada and other regions [10] Current Market Position - As of the latest data, Affirm Holdings' stock price is down 6.2% at $67.08, with a trading volume of 4,357,210 [14] - RSI indicators suggest that the stock may be approaching an oversold condition [14]

Industry Overview - Fintech is transforming the global financial landscape by embedding financial services into everyday experiences, enabling programmable money, and leveraging AI for personalized interactions and risk management [1] - The rise of embedded finance integrates payments, lending, insurance, and investments into non-financial platforms, reducing distribution costs and enhancing customer loyalty [2] - Open banking and open finance empower customers with control over their data, fostering faster onboarding and customized products [2] - Programmable money powered by stablecoins and real-time payment rails is revolutionizing treasury, payroll, and cross-border transfers through instant settlement [2] - AI is becoming the new operating system for the financial industry, driving decision-making in underwriting, cybersecurity, and compliance [3] Future Trends - The future financial system will be open, data-permissioned, AI-native, and instant in settlement, with long-term winners being fintechs and incumbents that master interoperability and trusted customer relationships [4] - Stocks like Upstart Holdings, Affirm Holdings, and Nu Holdings are gaining investor attention as they adapt to these trends [4] Company Insights: Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) - Upstart is an AI-driven fintech that uses machine learning to evaluate non-traditional data points for lending, allowing broader loan approvals while maintaining strong credit performance [6][7] - The company acts as an intermediary, earning revenues through referral fees, loan servicing fees, and income from loan sales and securitization [7] - Upstart's direct-to-consumer platform enables individuals to apply for loans directly, leveraging automation and data analytics to disrupt traditional lending [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPST's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 51.4% and 930%, respectively [9] Company Insights: Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) - Affirm operates in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) and embedded finance space, allowing consumers to split purchases into installments at the point of sale [10] - The company uses data-driven underwriting and real-time credit assessment to manage risk dynamically [11] - Affirm differentiates itself by focusing on larger-ticket purchases and flexible repayment options, supported by a robust capital model [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFRM's fiscal 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 23.9% and 473.3%, respectively [14] Company Insights: Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) - Nu Holdings targets underserved and digitally native consumers in Latin America with a suite of app-based services across lending, banking, and investing, amassing 123 million customers as of June 30, 2025 [15][16] - The company has reduced operational costs while boosting efficiency and accessibility, promoting financial inclusion in underserved markets [16] - Nu's diversified revenue streams from lending, interchange fees, and marketplace services offer resilience and scalability [17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NU's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 32.2% and 24.4%, respectively [19]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the performance and outlook of a firm, particularly in relation to consumer health and the impact of economic disparities on lower-end consumers [1][2][3]. Consumer Health - The firm is viewed as a barometer for consumer health, with a significant focus on the dichotomy between affluent consumers and those struggling financially [2][3]. - Despite overall consumer health appearing stable, concerns persist regarding the lower-end consumer's ability to manage financial obligations, especially in the context of "buy now, pay later" schemes [2][6][12]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts anticipate earnings per share (EPS) to be 11 cents, reflecting a decline from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year [7]. - Revenue projections are set to exceed $880 million, indicating a positive trend despite potential challenges [7]. Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - The firm's stock has performed well year-to-date, showing double-digit growth, comparable to the S&P 500 [4]. - The stock's status as a "meme stock" introduces volatility, with potential for significant sell-offs in the future, particularly if market momentum shifts [5][8]. Strategic Partnerships - Partnerships with major players like Amazon and Shopify are deemed critical for the firm's valuation and market position, significantly influencing its status as a meme stock [10][11]. - Any disruption in these partnerships could have severe implications for the firm's market performance, although current expectations suggest stability in these relationships [11]. Future Outlook - The firm is expected to provide insights into the state of the lower-end consumer in its upcoming results, which will be closely monitored for indications of economic health [12].

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a significant player in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector, with quarterly earnings set to be released on November 6, 2025, and Wall Street estimates earnings per share (EPS) at $0.10 and revenue at approximately $882 million [1] - The Internet Software sector, including Affirm, is expected to benefit from advancements in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and automation, contributing to a projected revenue increase of 26.7% year-over-year, reaching $885 million [2] Financial Performance - Affirm is anticipated to report a revenue increase of 26.7% year-over-year, reaching $885 million [5] - The company has a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of approximately 54.19, indicating ample current assets to cover liabilities [3][5] - However, Affirm's debt-to-equity ratio is about 2.56, suggesting a significant reliance on debt financing relative to equity [3][5] Market Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, Affirm faces challenges from high interest rates and market volatility, which could moderate revenue growth [3][5] - Investors should closely monitor management's discussion during the earnings call to assess the sustainability of price changes and future earnings projections [4]

Industry Overview - The Internet Software industry is expected to report modest-to-solid revenue growth for Q3 2025, driven by technological innovations in AI, cloud computing, and automation [1][4][10] - Steady demand for AI-powered software solutions, sustained cloud migration, and expanding enterprise IT budgets are anticipated to support this growth [2][3] Key Players and Performance Expectations - Leading companies such as Backblaze (BLZE), Datadog, Inc. (DDOG), JFrog (FROG), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Block (XYZ) are expected to benefit from increased adoption and subscription renewals [2][10] - Backblaze's revenues are projected at $36.95 million, reflecting a 13.37% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in its B2 Cloud Storage business [9] - Datadog's revenues are estimated at $849.77 million, indicating a 23.15% year-over-year growth, supported by strong momentum in its security and AI-focused offerings [14] - JFrog's revenues are expected to be between $127 million and $129 million, with a year-over-year increase of 17.73% anticipated [17] - Affirm Holdings is projected to report revenues of $885.01 million, representing a 26.7% year-over-year rise [19] - Block's revenues are estimated at $6.34 billion, indicating a 6.12% year-over-year increase [22] Growth Catalysts - AI and generative AI are major growth catalysts, enhancing productivity and customer engagement across various sectors [3] - The expansion of cloud and edge computing capabilities, along with increased data-center investments, is expected to further support revenue growth [3] Challenges - The industry's performance may be affected by macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and market volatility, which could dampen investor sentiment [4][10] - Companies with strong AI features, solid cloud platforms, and flexible SaaS models are likely to outperform their peers despite these challenges [4]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is scheduled to report its Q1 fiscal 2026 results on November 6, 2025, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 11 cents and revenues of $885 million [1][6] - The earnings estimate has improved by 1 cent over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year EPS growth of 135.5% and a revenue growth of 26.7% [2][6] - For fiscal 2026, the revenue estimate is $3.99 billion, reflecting a 23.9% year-over-year increase, with the current fiscal year's EPS projected at 86 cents, a significant rise from 15 cents a year ago [3] Earnings Expectations - Affirm is predicted to beat earnings estimates due to a positive Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] - The consensus estimate for merchant network revenues is $247.9 million, indicating a 34.5% increase from the previous year [7] - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is expected to grow by 36.6%, with management anticipating it to be between $10.1 billion and $10.4 billion [8] Transaction Metrics - Active consumers are projected to grow by 20.8% year-over-year, with transactions per active consumer expected to rise by 12.4% [9] - Card network revenues are estimated to improve by 38.3%, while interest income is projected at $435.9 million, a 15.6% year-over-year increase [10] - Servicing income is expected to reach nearly $37 million, reflecting a 42.3% jump from the prior year [11] Stock Performance - Affirm's stock has increased by 18.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 14.8% and significantly surpassing the S&P 500's increase of 17.9% [12] Valuation Insights - Affirm's current valuation is stretched, trading at 5.45X forward 12-month sales, above its three-year median of 3.97X and the industry average of 5.34X, suggesting limited near-term upside potential [16][18] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding globally, entering new markets in Europe and Australia, and forming partnerships with major players like Shopify, Apple Pay, and Google [19][20] - Affirm is diversifying its offerings, including partnerships in the gaming sector and developing new payment solutions, aiming to build a comprehensive financial network beyond its core BNPL operations [20][21] - The company's loyal customer base, driven by transparent pricing and seamless integration, supports stable cash flows, although high leverage poses risks in a competitive BNPL market [21]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings Inc is currently trading at $72.31, facing resistance at the $80 level, with a recent pullback observed at the $70 level, which aligns with a historically bullish trendline [1] Price Trends - The stock has pulled back to the 126-day trendline, remaining above it 80% of the time in the past two months. Historically, similar signals have led to a 50% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 12.5%, potentially pushing the stock above $81 for the first time since September [2] Options Activity - There is significant bearish sentiment surrounding the stock, as indicated by a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.38, ranking in the 99th annual percentile. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio of 1.08 also sits in the 96th percentile, suggesting that unwinding of this sentiment could provide additional support for the shares [4] Short Interest - Short interest has decreased by 18.8% over the past two reporting periods but still represents 5% of the stock's total float. At the current trading pace, it would take short sellers nearly two days to cover these positions [5] Earnings Expectations - Affirm is set to announce earnings on November 6, with a history of mixed post-earnings performances. The stock has averaged a 14.8% earnings swing over the past two years, with analysts expecting a larger-than-usual 19% move this quarter, regardless of direction [6]

Core Insights - Affirm is enhancing its merchant and financial scale to compete with rivals like Klarna and PayPal by signing distribution deals with Worldpay and expanding its relationship with New York Life [1][8] - The company aims to integrate its payment solutions into various platforms, making it easier for consumers to choose Affirm as a payment option [2][4] Partnership Developments - Affirm has expanded its partnership with Worldpay to integrate its services into Worldpay's embedded payments option, which supports over 1,000 software-as-a-service companies that processed more than $400 billion in payments volume [3][4] - New York Life has agreed to purchase up to $750 million of Affirm's installment loans, providing off-balance-sheet funding that can support up to $1.75 billion in consumer loan volume per year [6] Market Positioning - Affirm has added 23 million users in the past 12 months, indicating strong consumer interest in its payment options, which include multiple payment methods beyond installment financing [4][8] - The company is focusing on mainstream payment solutions, aiming to be present where consumers make payment decisions [2][5] Competitive Landscape - Affirm is in a competitive environment with other BNPL fintechs like PayPal and Klarna, which are also expanding their offerings and partnerships [8][10] - PayPal has recently entered a similar BNPL investment deal, indicating a trend among fintechs to bolster their BNPL portfolios [9][10] Future Outlook - Affirm is set to report earnings soon, which may provide further insights into its growth and market strategies [8]