Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has established a unique position in the rapidly expanding Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market, emphasizing transparency and catering to both high-ticket and low-ticket purchases while providing convenient financing options [1] Company Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, total transactions increased by 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million, with a repeat transaction rate of 94%, indicating strong customer trust and loyalty [2][9] - The company reported a 36% year-over-year increase in total revenues, projecting fiscal 2025 revenues to be between $3.163 billion and $3.193 billion [3][9] - Affirm has an active merchant network of nearly 360,000 partners, which enhances its revenue potential by fostering repeat usage among customers [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL). PayPal's net revenues grew by 5% year over year, with a total payment volume increase of 6% [5] - Sezzle's total revenues surged by 76.4% year over year, with total transactions rising by 62.6% to 8.2 million and a repeat usage rate of 96.4% [6] Valuation and Estimates - Affirm's shares have gained 19.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average increase of 17.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 5.83, which is above the industry average of 5.55 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a growth of 103% compared to the previous year [11]

Company Overview - Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings due to higher revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with a consensus outlook indicating a positive earnings picture [1][2] - The earnings report is anticipated to be released on August 28, and the stock may rise if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +178.6% [3] - Revenues are projected to reach $839.88 million, which is a 27.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 22.64% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for Affirm Holdings is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +44.00% [12] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Affirm Holdings was expected to post a loss of $0.09 per share but instead reported earnings of $0.01, achieving a surprise of +111.11% [13] - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14] Industry Context - In the Zacks Internet - Software industry, nCino (NCNO) is expected to report earnings of $0.14 per share for the same quarter, with revenues projected at $143 million, an 8% increase year-over-year [18] - nCino's consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +3.7%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [19]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing strong market interest, but its valuation metrics, particularly the forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 6.26X, raise concerns about sustainability compared to historical and industry averages [1][2][4] Financial Performance - Affirm's free cash flow increased by 109.3% year-over-year to $609 million, indicating strong cash generation [4][7] - The P/FCF ratio stands at 44.25X, significantly higher than the industry average of 28.86X, suggesting a premium valuation [4][8] - The company ended the fiscal third quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a 33.4% increase from the end of fiscal 2024 [8] Growth Drivers - 94% of transactions in Q3 were from repeat users, with transaction volumes rising 45.6% to 31.3 million [7][9] - Affirm is expanding its offerings into essential categories such as groceries and travel, partnering with major retailers like Costco [10] - The company is broadening its product ecosystem by investing in debit solutions and B2B tools, enhancing customer engagement [11] Market Expansion - Affirm's partnership with Shopify aims to launch operations in Europe, targeting markets like France, Germany, and the Netherlands [11] - The company is also entering the gaming sector through a collaboration with Xsolla, focusing on younger consumers [12] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 103% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2025 earnings to 5 cents per share, with further growth expected in fiscal 2026 [13] - Revenue projections for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are anticipated to grow by 37.2% and 22.8%, respectively [13][14] Stock Performance - Affirm's shares have increased by 28.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average of 22.6% and competitors like PayPal and Block [15] Competitive Landscape - The BNPL market is highly competitive, with significant pressure from established players like PayPal and Block, as well as traditional financial institutions [17] - Affirm faces challenges in retaining large merchants, as evidenced by Walmart's switch from Affirm to Klarna [17] Cost Management - Operating expenses have been rising, with a 76.6% increase in fiscal 2022 and a 7.4% increase in the latest fiscal quarter, necessitating tighter cost discipline [18] Investment Considerations - While Affirm shows strong growth potential and cash flow generation, its high valuation and competitive pressures suggest a balanced risk/reward profile [19][20]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's partnership with Affirm to offer "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) financing is expected to enhance digital sales, particularly for high-value items like appliances and electronics, by reducing psychological barriers for budget-conscious consumers [1][3] Digital Sales Performance - E-commerce comparable sales increased by 14.8% in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with website traffic rising by 20% and average order values up by 3% [2][8] - Costco Logistics reported a 31% year-over-year increase in big and bulky e-commerce deliveries, indicating a strong demand in this segment where BNPL could further drive adoption [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as Walmart and Amazon have already integrated BNPL options into their platforms, with Walmart focusing on seasonal items and electronics, while Amazon offers Amazon Pay Later to facilitate monthly payments [5][6] Financial Metrics - Costco's stock has performed well, with shares increasing by 11.4% over the past year, surpassing the industry's growth of 7.7% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year sales growth of 8.1% and earnings per share growth of 11.6% for the current financial year [10] Valuation - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 48.96, which is higher than the industry average of 32.67, reflecting a Value Score of D [9]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has expanded its partnership with Stripe, becoming the first buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider integrated into Stripe Terminal, enhancing its presence in physical retail locations [1][9] - The integration allows customers to select Affirm at checkout, facilitating purchases from $35 to $30,000 with flexible repayment terms [2][3] - This partnership is significant as over 80% of retail spending occurs in physical stores, providing Affirm an opportunity to penetrate in-person transactions [3] Company Performance - Affirm's transaction volume surged 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million in the last reported quarter, indicating strong growth potential from the new partnership [4] - The stock has gained 27.6% year to date, outperforming the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [7] - Affirm trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.23X, higher than the industry average of 5.84, reflecting a premium valuation [10] Industry Context - Competitors like PayPal and Block are also expanding their BNPL services, with PayPal's total payment volume growing 6% to $443.5 billion and Block's BNPL gross merchandise value increasing 17% year over year to $9.11 billion [5][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 103% improvement year over year, indicating strong future growth expectations [12]

Core Insights - Affirm is launching two integrations to enhance its buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, strengthening partnerships with Google and Stripe [1][4] - The integration with Google Chrome allows U.S. shoppers to select Affirm directly from the browser's autofill menu at checkout, facilitating easier access to installment payment plans [2][3] - The integration with Stripe Terminal enables in-store shoppers to scan a QR code for financing options, with repayment terms ranging from 30 days to 60 months [4] Integration with Google - Affirm's integration with Google Chrome's autofill menu allows eligible consumers to choose biweekly or monthly payment plans for purchases between $35 and $30,000 [3] - This feature requires no additional setup for merchants and will be automatically activated on select sites, aiming to make the payment process more seamless [3] Integration with Stripe - Affirm becomes the first BNPL provider to integrate with Stripe Terminal, allowing consumers to apply for financing in participating stores by scanning a QR code [4] - This integration is expected to help merchants drive growth and meet customer needs more effectively [4] Consumer Behavior Insights - Research indicates that nearly three-quarters of consumers' last non-grocery retail purchases were made in person, highlighting the importance of in-store payment options [5] - BNPL services influence consumer purchasing behavior, with many users delaying purchases or opting for cheaper items if BNPL is unavailable [6] - A significant portion of consumers relies on BNPL out of necessity, often linked to their income levels [6] Recent Partnerships - Affirm has been actively forming partnerships to boost adoption, including a recent collaboration with Shopmonkey for car repair shops and an expansion of its partnership with travel search engine Kayak [7]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has expanded its partnership with Google Pay, integrating its payment options into Chrome's autofill feature, enhancing accessibility for customers [1][8] - The integration allows U.S. customers to select "Pay over time options" for purchases ranging from $35 to $30,000, with interest rates starting at 0% APR and no hidden fees [2][8] - The transaction count for Affirm increased by 46% year-over-year in Q3 of fiscal 2025, indicating strong consumer interest and adoption of its payment solutions [4][8] Company Developments - The new autofill feature provides a secure and efficient checkout process for both new and existing Affirm users, requiring no additional integration from merchants [3] - Affirm's flexible payment plans are designed to enhance consumer purchasing power and alleviate financial strain, potentially leading to increased transaction volumes and consumer interest income [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Visa Inc. (V), both of which have established strong market positions [5][6] - PayPal processed 6.2 billion transactions in Q2 of 2025, with net revenues rising 5.1% year-over-year to $8.3 billion [5] - Visa's processed transactions increased by 10% year-over-year in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with total revenues advancing 14% year-over-year [6] Financial Performance - Affirm's stock has surged by 189.3% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 47.4% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 103% improvement from the previous year, with revenue growth projected at 37.2% year-over-year [10] - Affirm currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.17, above the industry average of 5.84 [9]

Industry Overview - Internet stocks are benefiting from the ongoing digitalization wave, which is driving rapid adoption of AI and cloud computing [1] - The deployment of standalone 5G networks and AI-powered services is increasing the usage of social media platforms, digital advertising, online delivery models, streaming, and e-commerce growth [2] - Despite macroeconomic challenges, these factors are expected to positively impact Internet stocks during the earnings season [2] Company Earnings Insights - Four Internet stocks, Globant (GLOB), NICE (NICE), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Bill Holdings (BILL), are well-positioned to exceed earnings estimates this season [3] - Meta Platforms reported a 5% increase in ad conversions on Instagram and 3% on Facebook due to its new AI-powered recommendation model [5] - Microsoft’s AI assistants have reached 100 million monthly active users, and Alphabet is enhancing user experience through AI in its Search features [6] - Amazon's advertising business grew 23% year-over-year to $15.69 billion, attributed to successful AI-powered optimization [7] Company-Specific Projections - Globant expects revenues of at least $612 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 4.2% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at $1.52 per share [12][13] - NICE anticipates non-GAAP revenues of $709-$719 million for Q2 2025, indicating 7% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected between $2.93 and $3.03 per share [15][16] - Affirm Holdings forecasts GMV between $9.4 billion and $9.7 billion for Q4 fiscal 2025, with revenues expected to be between $815 million and $845 million [17] - BILL Holdings expects revenues between $370.5 million and $380.5 million for Q4 fiscal 2025, suggesting year-over-year growth of 8-11% [19][20]

Company Performance - Affirm Holdings closed at $78.96, marking a +2.17% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.08% [1] - The stock has risen by 11.89% in the past month, leading the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 3.95% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.21% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - Affirm Holdings is set to announce its earnings on August 28, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.11, indicating a 178.57% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $839.88 million, up 27.41% from the year-ago period [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $0.05 per share and revenue of $3.19 billion, representing changes of +102.99% and 0%, respectively, from the prior year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Affirm Holdings reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable business outlook [3][4] Valuation Metrics - Affirm Holdings has a Forward P/E ratio of 101.98, significantly higher than the industry average of 28.8, indicating it is trading at a premium [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.86, compared to the Internet - Software industry's average PEG ratio of 2.18 [7] Industry Ranking - The Internet - Software industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 69, placing it in the top 28% of all industries [8] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, indicating strong potential for growth [8]

Core Insights - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market engagement and confidence [1] - The Zacks Style Scores are designed to help investors select stocks with the highest potential to outperform the market in the short term [2] Zacks Style Scores Overview - Stocks are rated A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with higher scores indicating better performance potential [3] - The Style Scores are categorized into four types: Value Score, Growth Score, Momentum Score, and VGM Score [3][4][5][6] Value Score - Focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - Concentrates on a company's financial health and future growth potential, analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] Momentum Score - Aims to capitalize on price trends by evaluating recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] VGM Score - Combines the three Style Scores to identify stocks with attractive value, strong growth forecasts, and positive momentum [6] Zacks Rank Integration - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to assist investors in portfolio building [7] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically achieved an average annual return of +23.75% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] Stock Selection Strategy - For optimal returns, investors should prioritize stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B [10] - Stocks with a 3 (Hold) rank should also have A or B Scores to maximize upside potential [10] Earnings Estimate Revisions - The direction of earnings estimate revisions is crucial in stock selection, as stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still face price declines [11] Company Spotlight: Affirm Holdings - Affirm Holdings, a financial technology company, specializes in payment solutions offering flexible installment loans [12] - Currently rated 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of B, Affirm has a Momentum Style Score of B and a 10.5% increase in shares over the past four weeks [12][13] - The company has seen upward revisions in earnings estimates, with an average earnings surprise of +102.2% [13]