Core Insights - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is a valuable tool for options traders, measuring realized volatility against expectations priced into options over the past year [2][3] - A high SVS indicates that a stock has realized greater volatility than what its options have priced in, making it a potential target for options trading [3][4] - The analysis highlights stocks with consistently high SVS scores, suggesting they are more likely to yield positive returns for options traders [4][9] Summary by Category SVS Overview - SVS is calculated using hypothetical at-the-money straddle trades held until expiration, generating around 250 data points annually [2] - The scoring system combines average straddle return (40%), percentage of positive returns (40%), and percentage of straddles that doubled (20%) into a score from 0 to 100 [3] High-Performing Stocks - Stocks like Moderna Inc (MRNA) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) have high SVS scores, indicating they have consistently provided positive returns despite recent price declines [4][9] - The table of stocks with SVS above 90 shows that several sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food producers, have performed well [5] Consistent Positive Straddles - The analysis identifies stocks with the highest percentage of positive straddles, including MDLZ and MRNA, which have shown strong performance metrics [8] - The data suggests that stocks with a history of positive straddle returns are likely to continue attracting options traders [9] Growth Stocks and Risk Appetite - Risky growth stocks like HIMS and SoundHound AI (SOUN) are highlighted as potential targets for options traders looking for high returns, despite their volatility [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance when selecting stocks for options trading, especially in a post-earnings season environment [11]

Group 1 - AppLovin (APP) shares have increased by 31.4% over the past four weeks, closing at $328.54, with a mean price target of $448.30 indicating a potential upside of 36.5% [1] - The average of 20 short-term price targets ranges from a low of $200 to a high of $650, with a standard deviation of $122.50, suggesting variability in analyst estimates [2] - Analysts have shown a strong agreement in revising earnings estimates higher, with four estimates moving up in the last 30 days and no negative revisions, leading to a 14.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [11][12] Group 2 - The Zacks Rank for APP is 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates, indicating strong potential for upside [13] - While price targets are often viewed as a key metric, they can mislead investors, and analysts may set overly optimistic targets due to business incentives [7][8][10] - A low standard deviation in price targets indicates a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9]

Group 1 - The article highlights Oliver Rodzianko as a macro-focused investment analyst with a global perspective, emphasizing his expertise in public equity strategy and sectors like technology, semiconductors, AI, and energy [1] - Rodzianko's investment approach is characterized by a valuation discipline and a focus on long-term fundamentals, managing a long-only, unleveraged portfolio aimed at capital preservation and capturing asymmetric upside during market dislocations [1] - The Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio is central to Rodzianko's strategy, designed for resilience and long-term outperformance, with plans to formalize this framework within an asset management firm [1]

Core Insights - AppLovin's shares increased by 12.4% following the announcement of better-than-expected revenue and earnings, along with the decision to sell its gaming division [1][4] - The sale of the gaming division is expected to generate $400 million in cash and allow AppLovin to concentrate on its rapidly growing adtech business [6][9] Financial Performance - AppLovin reported earnings per share of $1.67 for the first quarter, a 149% increase year-over-year, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $1.45 [4] - The company's revenue reached $1.48 billion, a 40% increase from the previous year, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.38 billion [4] - Revenue from the advertising segment rose by 71% to $1.16 billion, while revenue from apps declined by 14% to $325 million [5] Strategic Moves - AppLovin is selling its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios, which will provide $400 million in cash and a nearly 20% stake in Tripledot [6] - The CEO expressed interest in merging with TikTok Global for assets outside of China, although he acknowledged that this is a "long shot" [2][8] - The potential merger could significantly increase TikTok's annual revenue from $20 billion to $80 billion [8]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corp's stock increased by 15.5% to $350.56 following impressive quarterly results and a significant business shift [1] - The company reported earnings of $1.67 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.45, with revenue reaching $1.48 billion, also exceeding expectations [1] - AppLovin plans to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $800 million in cash [1] Analyst Reactions - At least five analysts have raised their price targets, with Morgan Stanley increasing its target to $420 from $350, the highest among them [2] - Options trading activity has surged, with over 47,000 calls and 35,000 puts traded, four times the average intraday volume [2] - New positions are being opened at the most active July 350 call [2] Stock Performance - Following the recent surge, AppLovin's stock is up 8.2% in 2025 and has a year-over-year increase of 373.1% [3] - The stock is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain and is trading above the $350 level, a significant area of chart resistance, for the first time since late March [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims against AppLovin Corporation due to a class action lawsuit alleging breaches of fiduciary duties by the board of directors [1] Group 1: Allegations of Misconduct - The class action lawsuit claims that AppLovin misrepresented the effectiveness of its AXON 2.0 digital ad platform and AI technologies, suggesting they would enhance ad matching and expand into new markets [2] - It is alleged that AppLovin engaged in manipulative practices, including exploiting advertising data from Meta Platforms and implementing a "backdoor installation scheme" to inflate installation numbers and profit figures [2] - Reports from analysts on February 26, 2025, indicated that AppLovin was reverse engineering Meta's advertising data and using deceptive tactics to artificially boost ad click-through and app download rates, leading to a significant drop in share price by over 12% [3]

Core Insights - AppLovin reported $1.48 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 40.3% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.67, compared to $0.67 a year ago, representing a significant improvement [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.70%, while the EPS surprised by 15.17% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average Revenue Per Monthly Active Payer was $52, surpassing the estimated $48.32 [4] - Monthly Active Payers totaled 1.5 million, slightly below the estimated 1.57 million [4] - Advertising Revenue reached $1.16 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.05 billion, with a year-over-year change of +70.9% [4] - Apps Revenue was $325.05 million, slightly below the estimated $331.66 million, reflecting a -14.4% change year-over-year [4] - In-App Purchase revenue was $227.54 million, above the estimate of $223.60 million, showing a -12.2% year-over-year change [4] - In-App Advertising revenue was $97.51 million, below the estimate of $108.31 million, with a -19.1% change year-over-year [4] - Segment Adjusted EBITDA for Apps was $61.80 million, exceeding the estimate of $47.20 million [4] - Segment Adjusted EBITDA for Advertising was $943.23 million, compared to the average estimate of $829.36 million [4] Stock Performance - AppLovin shares returned +29.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Market Overview - Major indexes closed in the green with the Dow up +284 points (+0.70%), S&P 500 up +0.43%, Nasdaq up +0.27%, and Russell 2000 up +0.33% [1] Federal Reserve Update - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 4.25-4.50% for the third consecutive session, with a unanimous vote among members [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns over inflation and employment but indicated no immediate policy changes due to lack of hard data [3] - Powell highlighted uncertainty regarding trade policies and stated that the Fed's decisions are unaffected by presidential opinions [3] Q1 Earnings Reports - AppLovin (APP) reported Q1 earnings of $1.67 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.45, with revenues of $1.48 billion surpassing the $1.38 billion forecast, leading to an +18% increase in after-hours trading [4] - Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) posted earnings of $1.24 per share, slightly above consensus, with revenues of $953 million, but shares fell -4% in late trading [4] - Carvana (CVNA) significantly beat earnings expectations with $1.51 per share compared to $0.75 expected, and revenues of $4.23 billion versus $4.04 billion projected, showing +46% year-over-year retail unit growth [5] - MercadoLibre (MELI) reported Q1 revenues of $5.9 billion, exceeding expectations of $5.53 billion, with a +17% year-over-year increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) to $13.3 billion [6]

Financial Performance - AppLovin reported quarterly earnings of $1.67 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45 per share, and up from $0.67 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 15.17% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.48 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.70%, compared to $1.06 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, AppLovin has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - AppLovin shares have declined approximately 5.9% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 4.7% [3] - The company's current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.54 on revenues of $1.38 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.80 on revenues of $5.59 billion [7] Industry Context - The Technology Services industry, to which AppLovin belongs, is currently ranked in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8] - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact AppLovin's stock performance [5][6]

Financial Update 4Q24 Financial Update 1Q25 Financial Overview ALL COMPARISONS ARE TO 1Q24 $120 $127 $257 $247 4Q23 4Q24 Revenue was $1.48 billion, an increase of 40%. Net Income was $576 million, a net margin of 39% compared to net income of $236 million and a net margin of 22%. Advertising revenue grew 71% to $1.16 billion. Net revenue per installation increased 49% and installations increased 22%. Segment Adjusted EBITDA increased 92% to $943 million, an 81% margin. Adjusted EBITDA increased 83% to $1.01 ...