As an indicator, Momentum can be one of the strongest measures of success for a stock or an industry. When it comes to how the year 2024 ended, some stocks got very close to their 52-week highs but are expected to keep going even higher in 2025. Investors shouldn’t look at an absolute performance here but rather a relative one to the highs set for 2024. Then, as investors wonder whether there is enough fuel left in the tank, they can look at some of the valuation metrics that combine both ceiling room and p ...

I analyze oil and gas companies like Antero Resources and related companies in my service, Oil & Gas Value Research, where I look for undervalued names in the oil and gas space. I break down everything you need to know about these companies -- the balance sheet, competitive position and development prospects. This article is an example of what I do. But for Oil & Gas Value Research members, they get it first and they get analysis on some companies that is not published on the free site. Interested? Sign up ...

Antero Resources (NYSE: AR ) sits, like a beautifully set table, ready for growth. Important changes in Washington, D.C. highlight the beauty of the table. We don't own a lot of shares, but we do own a small position, with plans to slowly add. ProducingI have been an investor for several decades enduring the 87 crash, 2000 crash, and 08 crash. I do use trading systems developed with TradeStation. I have enjoyed the rewards from both buy and hold and trading. My professional experiences includes several deca ...

Core Viewpoint - Antero Resources reported a wider-than-expected loss in Q3 2024, with total revenues declining year-over-year, raising questions about future performance and potential pullbacks in stock price [2][3]. Financial Performance - The adjusted loss for Q3 2024 was 12 cents per share, compared to a consensus estimate of a loss of 3 cents and a profit of 8 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Total revenues for the quarter were $1,056 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1,043 million but down from $1,126 million year-over-year [2]. Production Metrics - Total production in Q3 was 313 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), a decrease from 320 Bcfe a year ago, with natural gas production accounting for 64% of total production at 200 Bcf, down 4% from 208 Bcf [4]. - Oil production was 856 thousand barrels (MBbls), down 7% from 918 MBbls year-over-year, while C2 Ethane production increased by 9% to 7,302 MBbls [5]. Price Realizations - The weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $3.14 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), lower than $3.32 a year ago but above the estimate of $2.98 [6]. - Realized prices for natural gas fell 14% to $2.13 per Mcf from $2.48 year-over-year, while oil price realization decreased to $61.59 per barrel from $68.22 [7]. Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased to $1,062 million from $1,070 million year-over-year, with average lease operating costs down 10% to 9 cents per Mcfe [8]. - Transportation expenses declined 3.3% to 58 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased by 5.6% to 88 cents per Mcfe [9]. Capital Expenditures and Financials - Antero Resources spent $148 million on drilling and completion operations in Q3 2024 and reported no cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024, with long-term debt at $1.62 billion [10]. Guidance - The company revised its drilling and completion capital budget for 2024 to a range of $640-$660 million from the previous $650-$700 million, while maintaining production guidance at 3.375-3.425 Bcfe per day [11]. Market Position and Outlook - Estimates for Antero Resources have trended upward recently, with a consensus estimate shift of 163.26% [12][13]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [15].

Core Insights - The article promotes iREIT on Alpha as a source for in-depth research on various income-generating investments, including REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs, highlighting the positive feedback with 438 testimonials, most rated 5 stars [1] Group 1 - iREIT on Alpha offers a free 2-week trial for potential subscribers [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research in investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Natural gas prices are experiencing a significant surge, driven by supply disruptions, colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and reduced renewable energy output, creating a bullish outlook for the natural gas market and related stocks [1][3][4][5][6][11]. Group 1: Price Surge Catalysts - Supply disruptions from Hurricane Rafael have cut production in the Gulf of Mexico by approximately 16%, removing around 310 million cubic feet of daily production, tightening supply amid high demand [3]. - Colder-than-expected weather forecasts are increasing heating demand, with a reported 2.7% rise in natural gas consumption, adding upward pressure on prices [4]. - U.S. LNG exports are nearing record highs, averaging around 13 billion cubic feet per day, while domestic supply has fallen to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day, the lowest since the start of the year, further tightening the market [5]. - Reduced renewable energy output due to lower wind speeds is increasing reliance on natural gas-fired power plants, supporting higher prices [6]. Group 2: Gas-Focused Stocks Performance - Comstock Resources (CRK) has a strong operational base in the Haynesville shale, with low operating costs and a significant drilling inventory, contributing to its positive outlook [7]. - Antero Resources (AR) is a leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, having produced 313 billion cubic feet equivalent in the most recent quarter, with over 60% being natural gas [8]. - EQT Corporation is the largest natural gas producer in the U.S., with more than 90% of its production being natural gas, emphasizing its dominant market position [9]. - Range Resources has a large contiguous acreage position with over 30 years of low-breakeven inventory, producing 202.8 billion cubic feet equivalent in the third quarter, with 68% being natural gas [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The natural gas market is expected to maintain bullish momentum due to ongoing supply disruptions, seasonal demand, and strong international interest in U.S. LNG, suggesting a promising opportunity for investors in natural gas-focused stocks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector, particularly the oil industry, is experiencing significant price action and volume, indicating potential investment opportunities for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - Following the U.S. presidential election, oil drilling and production companies performed well, signaling positive future prospects for these stocks [2]. - Warren Buffett's acquisition of up to 29% of Occidental Petroleum Co. reflects a bullish sentiment towards oil investments [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Antero Resources Co. is trading at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 208.8x, significantly above the energy sector average of 13x, indicating a premium valuation [5]. - Analysts predict Antero Resources will transition from a net loss of $0.24 per share to a net earnings per share of $0.42 within the next 12 months, justifying its current valuation [6]. - The stock forecast for Antero Resources suggests a 12-month price target of $32.83, representing a 3.64% upside potential [4]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of Oil Stocks - Occidental Petroleum is trading at a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2x, below the sector average of 3.5x, suggesting it may be undervalued with a forecasted upside of 27.49% [8][9]. - The stock forecast for Occidental Petroleum indicates a 12-month price target of $64.78, requiring a 55% rally from current levels to meet this target [7][9]. Group 4: High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunities - Transocean Ltd. has a high beta of 2.8, indicating significant volatility, but also a potential upside of 47.22% with a price target of $6.63 [10][11]. - Despite recent bearish price action, there has been a 6.3% decline in short interest, suggesting a shift in sentiment towards a more bullish outlook for Transocean [12][13].

Group 1 - The article promotes a free two-week trial for the investment group Distressed Value Investing, which offers exclusive research on various companies and investment opportunities [1] - The author, Aaron Chow, has over 15 years of analytical experience and co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment, indicating a strong background in both analysis and industry experience [2] - Distressed Value Investing focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector, highlighting a niche investment strategy [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a common disclaimer in investment-related content [3] - It clarifies that no specific investment recommendations are being made, and the views expressed may not represent the entire platform's opinions [3]

Core Insights - The energy sector is currently experiencing a trend of oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Borr Drilling Ltd (BORR) - Borr Drilling announced preliminary results for Q3 2024, with a stock price decline of approximately 24% over the past month and a 52-week low of $4.12 [3] - The RSI value for Borr Drilling is 26.27, indicating it is considered oversold [3] - On the latest trading day, shares of Borr Drilling gained 1.2%, closing at $4.19 [3] Group 2: Antero Resources Corp (AR) - Antero Resources reported Q3 2024 results and highlighted improvements in capital efficiency, reducing the average drilling time by 20% to 11 days [4] - The company's stock fell around 10% over the past month, with a 52-week low of $20.10 [4] - The RSI value for Antero Resources is 29.22, suggesting it is nearing oversold conditions [4] - On the latest trading day, shares of Antero Resources declined 8.3%, closing at $25.88 [4] Group 3: Ecopetrol SA (EC) - Ecopetrol is set to release its Q3 results on November 13, with a stock price decline of approximately 15% over the past month and a 52-week low of $7.62 [5] - The RSI value for Ecopetrol is 23.35, indicating it is in oversold territory [5] - On the latest trading day, shares of Ecopetrol fell 1.4%, closing at $7.70 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero Resources reported a reduction in drilling and completion capital budget to $650 million for 2024, a 28% decrease from 2023 while maintaining production levels [9][28] - The company achieved a free cash flow breakeven level of approximately $2.20, benefiting from low maintenance capital requirements and high exposure to liquids [23][24] - Total capital budget is expected to decrease by over $300 million in 2024 compared to the previous year while maintaining production [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company set a new quarterly record for completion stages, averaging 12.1 stages per day, a 51% increase compared to 2022 [7][8] - Total well costs have decreased by 8% since last year, reaching the lowest level since 2021 [8] - Antero's maintenance capital per Mcfe is $0.52, which is 41% below the peer average of $0.88 [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. propane demand exceeded 3 million barrels a day recently, driven by seasonal crop drying and heating demand [16] - Antero realized an average propane export premium of $0.22 per gallon in Q3, up from $0.08 to $0.09 per gallon at the start of the year [17] - Natural gas power burn demand is averaging 1.4 Bcf higher than last year, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI data centers and electric vehicles [19][20] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - Antero plans to continue focusing on improving operational efficiencies and has switched to an e-fleet for completion activities, potentially saving $150,000 to $200,000 per well [10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from robust export premiums due to its unconstrained access at the Marcus Hook terminal [18] - Antero's firm transportation portfolio delivers 75% of its natural gas to the LNG corridor, providing direct exposure to growing LNG demand [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to maintain production levels while deferring completions based on natural gas prices [27][44] - The company anticipates that low rig counts and increased demand will support a tightening of inventories and lead to higher prices in 2025 and beyond [22] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a flexible capital program to adapt to market conditions [26] Other Important Information - Antero has built two DUC pads with 12 wells that are not being completed this year, with completion timing dependent on natural gas prices [31] - The company plans to use the first $600 million of free cash flow to reduce debt before considering buybacks [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on DUCs and future completions - Management confirmed they have two DUC pads with 12 wells that are not being completed this year, with future completions dependent on natural gas prices [31][32] Question: Buyback strategy and free cash flow - The first $600 million of free cash flow will be used to reduce debt, with buybacks considered afterward [33] Question: Northeast LPG export advantage and premium sustainability - Management expects strong premiums to continue until new export capacity comes online in mid to late 2025 [35][36] Question: Conditions for completing DUCs - Completion of DUCs will depend on achieving a natural gas price of $2.50 or higher [39][40] Question: Maintenance capital and production levels - Maintenance capital is expected to be around $700 million to maintain production levels of 3.3 to 3.4 Bcfe per day [44][59] Question: Hedging strategy and future pricing - Management is monitoring the market for potential hedging opportunities but remains unhedged for now [51] Question: Impact of efficiencies on 2025 budget - The 2025 budget includes efficiencies and is expected to be lower due to improved operational performance [55]