对话陕西煤炭交易中心专家：《2026 年电煤中长期合同 对市场的影响》20251123 摘要 2025 年电煤长协价格机制灵活调整，允许工序企业参考市场指数自主 协商月度价格，晋陕蒙地区执行统一国家规定，旨在应对市场波动，确 保煤炭供应稳定。 享受保供政策的核增产能煤矿需全额签订合同，但 2021 年四季度以来 未完成核增手续的矿井，若年底前未完成，产能将恢复原状，影响合同 履约和供应链。 预计 2026 年电煤需求稳中有降，受新能源替代影响，火电利用小时数 下降。陕西省 2026 年任务量减少，全国范围亦有缩减，动力煤价格上 涨动力不足。 陕西省不支持第三方企业参与电煤交易，所有合同需矿场间直接签订， 旨在加强履约保障，提高交易透明度和可靠性，确保电煤供应安全。 2025 年底前未完成产能核增指标手续的煤矿，电煤任务分解时将被剔 除，陕西省有大量民营矿井未办理，或面临政策调整带来的挑战。 Q&A 2026 年电煤中长期合同政策有哪些主要变化？ 2026 年的电煤中长期合同政策与 2025 年相比，整体变化不大，但在价格计 算方面有了明确规定。根据国家发改委价格司的 303 号文，晋陕蒙地区的电煤 价格区间为 ...

Core Insights - The chairman of the National Energy Group's Wuhai Energy, Zhou Yong, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - Wuhai Energy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the National Energy Group, specializing in coking coal production and processing, with additional operations in gas and photovoltaic power generation [1] Company Overview - Wuhai Energy was established in 1958, evolving from the Uda Mining Bureau and Haibowan Mining Bureau under the Ministry of Coal [2] - The company underwent several restructurings, including a merger in 2008 and a name change in 2019 to National Energy Group Wuhai Energy Co., Ltd. [2] Operational Details - Wuhai Energy is located in Inner Mongolia and is the largest coking coal production base in the region, with a total mining capacity of 15 million tons and a washing capacity of 19.3 million tons [1] - The company operates 10 mines, with 6 production mines and various other types of mines, primarily producing coking coal, main coking coal, high-sulfur fertilizer coal, and electricity coal [1]

山西证券近日发布2026年电煤中长期合同点评：2025年11月17日国家发展改革委办公厅发布《关于做好 2026年电煤保供中长期合同签订和履约监管工作的通知》（以下简称"2026年方案"），方案对2026年电 煤中长期合同的签约对象、签约方式和期限、签约数量、价格机制、规范签约、运力保障、进度安排、 加强组织保障等方面进行全面指导。 以下为研究报告摘要： 方案符合预期，履约要求小幅放宽。2026年中长期合同方案继续延续2022年的中长期合同方案的机制。 2022年中长期合同方案则是对2017年以来历时5年机制的重大调整。2025年以来市场煤价与长协煤价曾 出现数月的倒挂，反内卷带动政策转向后倒挂逐步解除。从履约要求角度看，尽管2022年至2026年长协 合同履约要求不断小幅放宽，但长协履约的基础仍然存在。因此2026年方案基本符合预期。 签约数量：量化指标保持一致，履约表述更加灵活。对于电企，2026年原则上不应低于签约需求量的 80%，国家将签约需求量80%的合同纳入重点监管范围。其中修改"最低应不低于"为"原则上不应低 于"表述，删除"鼓励根据供需情况多签、签实"表述。对于煤企，维持"原则上煤炭企业任务量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].

专家会议 如何解读 2026 年电煤保供中长协合同签订通知？ 20251119 摘要 2026 年煤炭保供合同明确提出"保供"，预示监管将加强履约监管， 旨在提升合同履约率，尤其是在过去两年履约不佳的背景下，尽管当前 煤炭市场供应相对宽松。 2026 年煤炭定价机制引入基准加浮动价格指数，虽总体较原上限定价 有所回落，但具体影响因地区而异，部分地区可自主协商，旨在建立更 稳定和公平的价格预期，保护企业利益。 中电联预测 2026 年全社会用电量同比增长约 5%，支撑电煤消费保持 平稳或微增态势，但钢铁和建材行业耗煤量预计下降，非电用煤需求预 计在 49 亿吨左右。 预计 2026 年煤炭市场供需整体平衡偏宽松，港口 5,500 大卡动力煤基 准价预计为 800 元/吨，上下浮动 100 元左右，市场行情维持相对稳定。 超产核查对煤炭供应产生影响，央企超产较少，地方企业超产较多，国 家希望保持煤炭市场供大于求的宽松状态，以避免对能源安全和保供产 生不良影响。 Q&A 2026 年电煤保供中长期合同签订通知有哪些主要变化？这些变化将如何影响 2026 年的煤价？ 2026 年电煤保供中长期合同签订通知相较于 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gas sector experienced significant gains on November 14, with several companies reaching their daily price limits due to anticipated increases in demand for gas and electricity as a cold wave is expected to impact much of China [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The gas sector saw substantial increases, with companies such as Guo Xin Energy, Jingneng Thermal Power, Changchun Gas, and Lianmei Holdings hitting their daily price limits [1]. - Shengli Co. achieved a four-day consecutive rise, while Dazhong Public Utilities rose over 5% [1]. Group 2: Weather Impact - The Central Meteorological Administration reported that average temperatures in most parts of China have been 1-3°C higher than the same period in previous years, with some areas exceeding 4°C [1]. - A cold wave is expected to affect most regions of China from November 14 to 17, leading to a temperature drop of 6-10°C in northern and central eastern regions, with some areas experiencing drops of 12-14°C [1]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - The anticipated cold wave is expected to increase demand for gas and electricity, which could benefit related sectors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized a video conference to arrange energy supply for the heating season of 2025-2026, indicating a generally balanced energy supply and demand but acknowledging potential risks due to extreme weather and complex international situations [1] Group 1: Energy Supply Stability - Emphasis on stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring coal production organization and transportation support [1] - All types of power sources should be fully operational, with wind and solar energy playing a significant role in electricity supply [1] - Proper arrangements for natural gas resource production and supply are essential [1] Group 2: Contract Fulfillment - Focus on improving the fulfillment of long-term coal contracts, particularly for heating needs in northern regions, especially Northeast China [1] - Companies are urged to strictly adhere to signed gas supply contracts [1] Group 3: Peak Energy Supply Management - Maintaining a dynamic clearance of coal stocks for power plants with less than 15 days of supply [1] - Ensuring peak output from coal-fired power plants and utilizing gas, hydro, pumped storage, and electrochemical energy storage for peak supply [1] - Effective use of gas storage facilities and LNG tanks for peak demand management [1] Group 4: Safety Production - Reinforcement of local and corporate responsibilities for safety production, ensuring adherence to energy safety operation standards [1]

Core Insights - The energy supply in Ordos City is under significant pressure as demand for electricity and heating rises with the dropping temperatures, leading to a critical test for energy supply [1] - Ordos City is responsible for a substantial portion of the national coal supply, with a commitment to deliver 420 million tons of electricity coal by 2025, accounting for 77.8% of Inner Mongolia's total task [1] - The city has a total of 320 registered coal mines with an annual production capacity of 1.024 billion tons, representing 68.5% of Inner Mongolia's and 18.5% of the national coal production capacity [1] Production and Supply - As of October, coal mines in Ordos have entered the winter supply phase, with a daily production of 24,000 tons and stable dispatch of three trains of electricity coal per day [1] - The city has produced 647 million tons of coal by the end of September, achieving 75% of its annual target and contributing 18.2% to the national total [2] - New coal mining projects have been approved, including the Nalinhiri and Suburga mines, and the Longtan open-pit mine has been completed, further enhancing production capacity [2]

Group 1 - The energy supply in Ordos City is facing a significant test as demand for electricity and heating rises with decreasing temperatures [1] - In the first nine months of this year, Ordos City fulfilled approximately 184 million tons of coal contracts, achieving a compliance rate of 83%, which is nearly a 5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - By 2025, Ordos City is responsible for a national coal supply task of 420 million tons, accounting for 77.8% of Inner Mongolia's total task, playing a crucial role in the national energy supply [1] Group 2 - Ordos City has 320 registered coal mines with a total production capacity of 1.024 billion tons per year, representing 68.5% of Inner Mongolia's and 18.5% of the national coal production capacity [1] - The coal mining companies in Ordos are operating at full capacity to ensure supply, with the Nalinhe No. 2 coal mine efficiently loading coal at a rate of 64 to 70 tons per car, completing the loading of a 3600-ton train in under one hour [1] - In October, coal mines entered the winter supply phase, with a four-shift system implemented to ensure coal dispatch [2] - Ordos City has approved new coal mining projects and is steadily constructing nine additional coal mines, contributing to a total coal production of 647 million tons by the end of September, which is 75% of the annual target and 18.2% of the national total [2]

江西宏柏新材料股份有限公司 | 证券代码：605366 | 证券简称：宏柏新材 | 公告编号：2025-092 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：111019 | 债券简称：宏柏转债 | | 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格变动情况 | 主要产品名称 | 2025 | 年 | 1-9 | 月平均销售 | 2024年1-9月平均销 | 变动比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 单价（元/吨） | | 售单价（元/吨） | | | 硅烷偶联剂 | | | | 12,932.18 | 15,322.31 | -15.60% | | 气相白炭黑 | | | | 14,306.43 | 16,617.30 | -13.91% | （二）主要原材料价格变动情况（不含税） | 主要原料名称 | 2025 年 1-9 | | 月采购均价较 | 2025 | 年 | 1-9 | 月采购均价较 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...