今夏，江淮大地持续高温天气，热浪翻滚，给电力保供带来不小的挑战。 电力送得稳，设备安全运行是基础。从特高压到乡村配电网，无人机巡检正解锁更多应用新场景，为电 网筑起"空中智慧防线"。 在安徽省宣城市绩溪县，搭载AI智能识别系统的无人机成为破解山区巡检效率低、风险大等难题的"神 兵利器"。"绩溪县60%的配电线路穿行高山峡谷，无人机3小时就能完成10公里山路巡检，相比于传统 人工巡检效率提升了5倍。"国网绩溪县供电公司扬溪中心供电所副所长葛善德说。入夏以来，绩溪县已 通过无人机巡检线路超280公里，消除隐患162处，与去年同期相比，故障率下降40%。 引导用户科学用电、错峰用电是缓解供需矛盾的重要手段。7月15日起，安徽省进一步优化完善工商业 峰谷分时电价政策，引导工业用户增加午间用电行为，缓解晚峰压力。 国网安徽省电力有限公司数据显示，8月21日，安徽电网负荷又创新高，达6857万千瓦，较去年最大负 荷增长7.92%。面对电力保供严峻形势，安徽省坚持"源网荷储"协同发力，在电源侧强基、电网侧提 效，负荷侧、储能侧同时布局，推动各方协同发力，保障电力稳定供应。 煤炭是能源保供的"压舱石"和"稳定器"，电煤是火力 ...

公用事业及环保产业行业研究 2025 年 08 月 16 日 ◼ 随着公共卫生事件影响逐步淡去，市场原本期待美国 LNG 产能能够快速释放。然而事实却是项目投产时间的一再 延迟。以 Venture Global 旗下 LNG 项目 Calcasieu Pass 为切入点，简析美国 LNG 产能上线时间一再延迟的原因 有以下三点： 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 ①Venture Global 公司在应对其与一些长期客户之间的合同纠纷时所反复强调的不可抗力因素，即两次飓风和 公共卫生事件影响，以及动力岛余热锅炉的技术问题。 公共事业与环保组 ②Calcasieu Pass 属于绿地项目，并且采用了首创的中型模块化设计建造模式，导致项目调试周期延长。 分析师：张君昊（执业 S1130524070001） zhangjunhao1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐执敬（执业 S1130525020002） tangzhijing＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：汪知瑶（执业 S1130525080004） wangzhiyao＠gjzq.com.cn ③Calcasieu Pass 项目投产时正值俄乌冲 ...

煤炭股涨幅居前，截至发稿，蒙古焦煤(00975)涨3.69%，报8.42港元；中煤能源(01898)涨2.85%，报 10.47港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨2.85%，报9.75港元；中国神华(01088)涨2.78%，报37.6港元。 国泰海通认为，2025Q1暖冬天气因素导致的总量需求不及预期已经过去，随着全社会用电总量的快速 恢复，5月开始电煤需求已经开始恢复1%以上的增长，同时结合新能源的"430、531"新政，在新能源装 机总量见顶背景下，2025H1或成为未来3-5年需求压力最大的时刻。而近期国家能源局发声煤炭行业"反 内卷"，同时650元/吨价格下给予市场的现实盈利压力倒逼产量，结合进口煤的确定性减量，总供给有 望呈现稳中有降的局面，供需基本面底部或已现。 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭行业的供给侧收紧成为投资主题，煤炭供大于求的局面有望逐步扭转， 煤价也有望继续提升，随着各地气温逐步升高，火电发电量增长，火电厂日均煤耗迅速增加，伴随着煤 炭需求起量，煤炭供需格局或有所好转。本次反内卷虽名义上是"查超产"，但超产究其原因还是煤价过 低、煤企亏损带来的"以量换价"，因此煤价回到合理位置，才能使煤炭 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and remained flat year-on-year at 0.0% due to significant pressure from food prices[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.8%, the highest in 17 months, indicating effective domestic demand policies[2] - Vegetable prices saw a significant decline due to high base effects from the previous year, while pork prices continued to drop due to weak terminal demand[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, marking a continued decline in the mining and raw material processing industries[2] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors were the largest contributors to the PPI decline, with mining industries showing a year-on-year drop of 14.0%[2] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in PPI in August, projecting a year-on-year rate around -3%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while CPI may rise above 0 in August, energy prices remain a significant constraint on overall inflation recovery[2] - The ongoing weak demand in the mid and downstream sectors is expected to limit the positive impact of anti-involution policies on PPI[2] - The effectiveness of domestic policies in stimulating demand will be crucial for any significant recovery in PPI throughout the year[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related market trends in July 2025, including production, demand, CPI, and PPI indicators, and points out the price changes and influencing factors of various products and industries [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 882,100 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.18 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18; the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan was 92.0%, unchanged from July 18 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate shows weak and stable operation. On July 24, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined moderately [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows - The new - home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 201,000 square meters, a 31.4% decrease compared to the same period in June, an 18.8% decrease compared to the same period in July last year, and a 34.7% decrease compared to the same period in July 2023 [4][22]. - The retail sales of the auto market are stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year [4][23]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22 [4][30]. - Cement prices approach previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreasing by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively [4][31]. - Glass prices corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22 [4][37]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3% [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices weaken. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index fluctuates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, eggs (+5.1%) > fruits (+1.7%) > mutton (+0.9%) > vegetables (+0.7%) > chicken (+0.4%) > beef (-0.02%) > pork (-1.2%) [4][50]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices rise. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22 [4][53]. - Copper and aluminum prices decline. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index widens. On July 29, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 22, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% [4][58]. - Most industrial product prices rise. Since July, most industrial product prices have increased, with wire rod, cement, and steam coal prices decreasing month - on - month, while other industrial product prices increasing month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest increases. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [62].

证券代码：600078 证券简称：澄星股份 公告编号：临 2025-039 江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》、 《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年半年度报告披露工作的重要提醒》的要求，江 苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年半年度主要经营数 据公告如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要产品 | 2025 年 1-6 | 月产量 | 2025 | 年 1-6 | 月销量 | 2025 | 年 1-6 | 月销售 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万吨） | | | （万吨） | | | 金额（万元） | | | 黄磷 | | 7.07 | | | 4.27 | | | 87,964.00 | | 磷酸 | | 12.54 | | | 12.16 | | ...

Summary of the Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal industry in Xinjiang, China, discussing production, transportation, and market dynamics for the first half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Production and Capacity - Xinjiang's total coal production for January to June 2025 reached 279 million tons, with June's output at approximately 53.92 million tons. The annual target is set at 600 million tons, but actual production is expected to be around 570 million tons due to market weakness [1][2]. - There are 89 operational coal mines in Xinjiang, with a total capacity of 575 million tons. The capacity utilization rate reached 116% in 2024, indicating overproduction [2][12]. - Major production areas include Changji Prefecture and Hami City, accounting for 70%-80% of total output. The Ili region plans to increase its annual production to 50 million tons, primarily for internal consumption [1][2]. Transportation and Costs - Total coal transportation from Xinjiang in the first half of 2025 was 66.7 million tons, with 45.7 million tons transported by rail. The railway transport is primarily directed towards Gansu (32.46%) and Ningxia (19%) [1][3]. - Transportation costs account for approximately two-thirds of the overall coal price, while the coal itself constitutes about one-third. Reducing transportation costs is critical for maintaining profitability [6][1]. - A railway freight rate reduction policy was implemented, with discounts ranging from 21% to 40% depending on the region and product type, aimed at alleviating market pressure [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The internal sales ratio of Xinjiang coal is high, at around 72%, with significant consumption in the construction and chemical industries [4][1]. - The coal market has shown signs of rebound, but coking coal prices are volatile, indicating a potential for large fluctuations in the near future [17][18]. - The demand side remains weak, and there is a need to enhance demand to stabilize coal prices. If the supply side reduces production without a corresponding increase in demand, it could lead to a market bottom [18][22]. Regulatory Environment - The National Energy Administration's overproduction policy may impact certain mines, but local demand remains strong, allowing production to continue [12][19]. - The State Development and Reform Commission's policy to convert production capacity into reserve capacity may face challenges in execution, particularly with ongoing construction projects [14][15]. Financial Health of Coal Companies - Many coal mines in the Hami and准东 regions are currently operating at a loss, with about 60% of mines reporting negative margins. Some larger companies are facing losses exceeding 20 yuan per ton [9][22]. - Despite losses, companies may not reduce production to maintain cash flow, especially state-owned enterprises that have social responsibilities [22]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to experience continued volatility, with potential for further regulatory measures if market conditions do not improve. The focus will be on balancing supply and demand to stabilize prices [24][30]. - The anticipated price range for coking coal is between 900 and 1,100 yuan per ton, with a preference for stability to avoid market disruptions [31][32]. Additional Important Insights - The railway freight rate adjustments are primarily driven by the railway bureau's economic conditions rather than direct government intervention, indicating a level of operational independence [25][26]. - The coal industry is currently facing a competitive landscape with limited customer resources, leading to price pressures among suppliers [29]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry in Xinjiang, highlighting production, transportation, market dynamics, regulatory challenges, and the financial health of coal companies.

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in production capacity, with an increase in both raw coal and coking coal output, although the pace of recovery remains slow due to various factors such as safety inspections and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.1%, with a daily average raw coal output rising by 11,000 tons to 1,929,000 tons, and a daily average coking coal output increasing by 5,000 tons to 770,000 tons, both reaching an 8-week high [1]. - Domestic coal is in a recovery phase, but the pace is slow, particularly for Mongolian coal, which faced a temporary closure due to the Nadam Festival from July 11 to July 15, with resumption of operations on July 16 [2]. - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, with smooth coal mine shipments and a phenomenon of oversold pre-sales [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Demand - Recent auction results for coking coal in Inner Mongolia show significant price increases, with high ash low sulfur coal (A15S0.8) selling for 910 CNY/ton, up 120 CNY/ton from the previous auction [1]. - The demand from downstream steel companies is high, with increased inventory replenishment, and the overall market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term [2]. - The coal market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations, with a focus on the ongoing recovery of Mongolian coal and the potential for supply disruptions in August [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The coal prices have reached a bottom in the first half of the year, with potential for a rebound in the second half as supply-demand dynamics improve, indicating resilience in coal demand in the medium term [1] - In Q1 2025, despite significant performance pressures, the coal sector remains strong with low debt-to-asset ratios (44.7%), high net profit margins (12.7%), and relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] - The current low interest rate environment enhances the investment appeal of high-dividend leading stocks in the coal sector [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - From January to May, domestic coal production increased by approximately 130 million tons year-on-year, while imports decreased by about 16 million tons, indicating an overall increase in supply [2] - The domestic raw coal production for the same period reached 1.99 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, with expectations for a narrowing growth rate in the second half of the year [2] - Coal imports are projected to remain low, with an expected year-on-year decrease of 8 million tons (-15%) for the entire year, primarily due to reduced imports from Indonesia [2] Group 3: Regional Insights - The transportation demand for coal from Xinjiang has seen a temporary decline due to falling coal prices, despite efforts to lower railway freight rates [3] - As of June 6, the railway transportation volume of Xinjiang coal increased by only 6.8% year-on-year, with limited price advantages in certain regions [3] - Xinjiang is accelerating investments in coal chemical and coal power projects, indicating a future increase in local coal consumption [3] Group 4: Price and Production Trends - Historical data suggests that when coal prices drop below 600 RMB/ton, production cuts begin to occur, with previous years showing significant reductions in coal output [4] - Current coal companies maintain reasonable profitability and operational quality, making spontaneous production cuts less likely, although a slight reduction may occur if prices fall below cost lines [4] Group 5: Demand Outlook - National coal consumption from January to May reached 2.05 billion tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with expectations for improved demand in the second half of the year [5] - The thermal power sector is under pressure due to slower electricity demand growth and competition from renewable energy, but a rebound is anticipated as the peak season approaches [5] - Non-electric demand, particularly for chemical coal, remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in coal-to-PVC, coal-to-ethylene glycol, and coal-to-methanol production [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained generally stable in the first half of the year, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first quarter [2] - In June, CPI turned from decline to an increase of 0.1%, influenced by international commodity price fluctuations and effective domestic demand policies [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the first quarter [2][4] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Prices for fresh fruits and aquatic products increased by 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to CPI [2] - Pork prices averaged a 3.8% increase in the first half, while beef prices saw a 6.9% decline [2] Group 3: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline expanding by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Gasoline prices dropped by 7.1%, contributing approximately 0.25 percentage points to the CPI decline [3] Group 4: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable decline of 3.6% by June [5] - International commodity price fluctuations led to a mixed price trend in domestic oil and non-ferrous metal industries [5] - Oil and gas extraction prices averaged a 9.6% decline, while non-ferrous metal smelting prices increased by an average of 6.2% [5] Group 5: Export and Industry Price Pressures - Uncertainties in the global trade environment led to price declines in export-oriented industries, with textiles and metal products down 2.3% year-on-year [6] - Sufficient supply and weak demand contributed to price declines in coal and electricity production, with coal prices down 15.4% [7] Group 6: Policy Impact on Prices - Macro policies have stabilized prices in certain industries, with the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing down 1.6%, a reduction narrower than in the first quarter [7] - Consumer demand policies have led to price increases in discretionary consumption sectors, with prices for arts and crafts up 12.3% [7]