近期，焦炭主力合约一改持续下跌的态势，封于8%的涨停板。本轮焦炭上涨行情的主要驱动来自焦煤 方面的政策扰动，以及资金面与宏观情绪的共同作用。 综上，近期焦炭价格上涨的核心逻辑在于国内外政策引发的供应收紧预期，国内焦化企业也达成了主动 减产限产、控制生产成本、反对过度提降的共识。当前市场虽处于上行通道，但需警惕后续政策力度或 需求韧性不及预期，引发市场情绪回调和价格波动。（作者单位：中盛期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 从煤炭供给角度看，直接削减产能，会使榆林地区乃至陕西省的煤炭供应能力出现收缩，但笔者认为， 这种局部调整整体上对榆林市电煤供应的影响有限。此外，本次调整严格针对电煤保供名单内的"核增 产能"煤矿，并非"一刀切"式减产，其影响更多是收紧供给弹性，而非大幅削减总产量。 从政策层面看，此次会议打破了"保供即安全"的行业预期，即使是享有保供政策支持的产能，如果没有 履行保供责任，也会被移出保供名单甚至被惩罚。这意味着未来对煤炭产能的管理将更加灵活，对保供 煤矿形成长期的行为约束。另外，榆林市作为重要产煤区，严格执行国家政策的态度和具体做法，很可 能成为其他产区的参照，引发市场对相关产能收缩的预期。在目前资 ...

消息面上，据期货日报，有知情人士告诉记者："7号上午有市场消息称，陕西省榆林市政府在相关会议 上通报称，根据国家发展改革委等六部委联合印发的文件，因2024—2025年电煤保供落实不到位，核增 产能的52处煤矿中，有26处煤矿被调出保供名单并核减产能1900万吨。对此，记者求证了多位产业和行 业人士。有煤矿人士告诉记者，上述消息属实，但对市场的实际影响不大。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股再度上扬，截至发稿，南戈壁(01878)涨5.34%，报2.17港元；中国神华 (01088)涨2.16%，报40.76港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨2.06%，报10.88港元；中煤能源(01898)涨0.73%，报 10.99港元。 山西证券认为，反内卷趋势未变，4季度业绩仍有改善预期，若价格长期高位运行，26年业绩仍具备修 复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。国海证券表示，展望2026年，"炭火暖意，天平微倾"， 行业供需关系预计将有改善，叠加政策托底，预计煤价中枢或有提升，预计北港动力煤价中枢在750元 左右、北港主焦煤均价在1550元左右，行业盈利能力有望得到一定修复。 ...

据悉，"十五五"时期国信扬州电厂三期扩建项目将实现投产，预计新增年发电量100亿千万时。下一 步，扬州海事将继续坚持民生物资运输全过程智慧监管、强化恶劣天气防范应对，打造"安全、绿色、 高效"水上运输通道，同时全力提升民生物资水路运输保通保畅以及精准服务水平，为地方经济社会安 全稳定运行、人民群众用电安全提供持续稳定的服务保障。 校对盛媛媛 扬子晚报网1月5日讯(通讯员王绪旺记者成沫)记者从扬州海事部门获悉，2025年，长江扬州段靠泊各类 电煤运输内外贸船128航次，接卸煤炭量达到603.4万吨，发电量超120亿千瓦时。扬州海事聚焦民生物 资水上运输保障，精准发力，多措并举力保到港电煤船舶安全、高效、绿色作业，为地方能源供应稳定 提供有力支撑。 为保障电煤水上运输安全高效绿色，扬州海事局协调码头、船舶代理各方，持续优化电煤运输保障机 制，保证电厂电煤储备量、码头泊位调度情况、船舶靠离等信息实时共享；针对今年扬州各类天气情 况，提前告知船舶并提醒其密切关注，电煤内外贸船舶靠离码头保证全程动态维护，保障安全；畅通电 煤水路运输绿色通道，协调船舶进出口岸优先审批、船舶靠离泊优先维护等服务，减少船舶在港等待时 间，提 ...

12月23日，2026年全国煤炭产运需衔接大会在河北邯郸隆重召开。大会由全国煤炭交易中心、邯郸市人 民政府联合主办，以"促进全国煤炭产运需企业高效衔接，搭建多方需求平台，为煤炭供应链'十五 五'良好开局夯实基础"为主题，汇聚国家相关部委、国铁集团、地方政府及煤炭、电力、港口、物流等 领域近千名代表，共商能源保供与行业高质量发展大计。 大会正式发布国铁全煤直达动力煤价格指数，该指数依托全国煤炭交易平台真实交易数据，整合16个铁 路局、470家样本煤矿权威信息，聚焦晋陕蒙核心产区、涵盖七大规格品类，已纳入2026年电煤保供中 长期合同定价参考体系，将为市场提供精准价格风向标。 河北省委常委、常务副省长赵辰昕，国铁集团党组成员、副总经理狄威，国家发展改革委运行局副局长 刘逆等领导出席并致辞或讲话。河北省邯郸市市长樊成华代表承办地回顾了大会连续在邯郸举办的合作 历程，并介绍了当地服务能源产业发展的区位与产业优势。 赵辰昕指出，河北作为"北煤南运、西煤东运"核心枢纽，将持续保障能源运输通道畅通，愿以煤为媒深 化多方合作，为行业发展提供河北机遇。 刘逆表示，煤炭行业需统筹能源安全与绿色转型，在筑牢保供底线的同时深化全产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Shanxi Province has produced approximately 6.5 billion tons of coal, accounting for nearly 30% of the national output, and has supplied affordable electricity coal to 24 provinces, fulfilling the commitment to ensure the nation does not worry about coal supply [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Production and Supply - Shanxi's coal production during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has reached about 6.5 billion tons, representing nearly 30% of the total national output [1]. - The province has delivered affordable electricity coal to 24 provinces across the country [1]. Group 2: Energy Transition and Development - Shanxi is transitioning from a "coal resource province" to a "comprehensive energy province," enhancing energy supply resilience and security [2]. - The province has built 369 intelligent coal mines, accounting for over one-third of the national total, and established 75 green mining demonstration coal mines [2]. - By the end of November 2025, Shanxi's net electricity output is expected to exceed 740 billion kWh, with over 30% supplied to more than 20 provinces [2]. Group 3: Natural Gas Production - Shanxi is the largest coalbed methane production base in China, contributing over 80% of the national output [2]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the province's unconventional natural gas production reached 74.9 billion cubic meters, a 155% increase compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [2].

Group 1: Energy Sector Developments - The National Energy Administration announced personnel adjustments for the electric power industry's cybersecurity joint meeting, indicating a restructuring of key members to enhance operational efficiency [2] - China Uranium Corporation officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, marking a significant step for the country's uranium mining sector and its commitment to energy security [2] - The Tarim Basin's largest gas storage facility, Yaha Gas Storage, completed its surface expansion, increasing its daily gas injection capacity by 1 million cubic meters [2] Group 2: Coal and Renewable Energy Initiatives - The Daqin Railway is expected to transport over 516 million tons of thermal coal this year, playing a crucial role in ensuring coal supply during the winter season [3] - Zhejiang Province aims to increase private investment in offshore wind, hydropower, and nuclear projects to over 10%, with offshore wind projects set at a minimum of 15% [3] - Guizhou Province is seeking public feedback on its management measures for wind and solar power projects, promoting multi-energy complementarity and market participation [4] Group 3: International and Domestic Energy Projects - The International Atomic Energy Agency completed a routine rotation of observers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, ensuring ongoing safety monitoring [5] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation announced the production launch of the Weizhou 11-4 oil field adjustment and surrounding area development project, with a peak production target of approximately 16,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [6]

Summary of Conference Call on 2026 Electric Coal Long-term Contracts Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the electric coal industry, specifically the long-term contract policies for electric coal in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions of China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Mechanism Adjustments**: The 2026 electric coal long-term contract price mechanism allows enterprises to negotiate monthly prices based on market indices, with a price range set between 320 to 520 RMB/ton for the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions [2][3]. 2. **Demand Forecast**: It is anticipated that electric coal demand will decline slightly in 2026 due to the impact of renewable energy, leading to reduced operating hours for thermal power generation [1][6]. 3. **Supply Chain Stability**: Coal mines benefiting from supply guarantee policies must fully sign contracts for increased production capacity. Mines that fail to complete the necessary procedures by the end of 2025 will revert to original capacity, affecting contract fulfillment and supply chain stability [1][5]. 4. **Third-party Participation Restrictions**: Shaanxi province does not support third-party companies in electric coal transactions, requiring all contracts to be signed directly between mines to enhance compliance and transaction transparency [1][7]. 5. **Production Capacity Management**: The Shaanxi government plans to manage small and medium-sized coal mines through mergers and upgrades, targeting a production capacity increase to 8 billion tons by 2025 and 8.5 billion tons by 2030 [3][11]. 6. **Impact of Environmental Regulations**: Safety and environmental inspections may hinder the completion of production targets, with Shaanxi likely unable to meet its 8 billion tons target this year [6][12]. 7. **Market Price Trends**: The overall market price for coal is expected to remain stable with limited upward momentum, potentially leading to a downward trend in the coming months [6][20]. 8. **State Control on Overproduction**: The government is strictly controlling overproduction to stabilize market prices, especially in light of recent price declines [12][20]. 9. **Differential Impact on Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises have shown more compliance in completing capacity increase procedures compared to private enterprises, which face challenges in the current market environment [13][16]. 10. **Future Production Outlook**: The Shaanxi government aims for a steady increase in coal production, with a projected annual growth rate of around 2% [11][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Coal Price Adjustments**: There are discussions about adjusting the price range for coal in the three provinces to reflect rising production costs, with suggestions to raise the lower limit by 50 RMB [20][21]. - **Long-term Contract Benefits**: State-owned enterprises are expected to benefit more from long-term contracts compared to private enterprises, especially if coal prices fall below contract prices [16][20]. - **Transition to Renewable Energy**: The dual carbon policy and the shift towards renewable energy sources are expected to gradually reduce coal consumption, although thermal power generation will still play a crucial role [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the electric coal industry and its future outlook.

Core Insights - The chairman of the National Energy Group's Wuhai Energy, Zhou Yong, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - Wuhai Energy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the National Energy Group, specializing in coking coal production and processing, with additional operations in gas and photovoltaic power generation [1] Company Overview - Wuhai Energy was established in 1958, evolving from the Uda Mining Bureau and Haibowan Mining Bureau under the Ministry of Coal [2] - The company underwent several restructurings, including a merger in 2008 and a name change in 2019 to National Energy Group Wuhai Energy Co., Ltd. [2] Operational Details - Wuhai Energy is located in Inner Mongolia and is the largest coking coal production base in the region, with a total mining capacity of 15 million tons and a washing capacity of 19.3 million tons [1] - The company operates 10 mines, with 6 production mines and various other types of mines, primarily producing coking coal, main coking coal, high-sulfur fertilizer coal, and electricity coal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 coal supply long-term contract plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission provides comprehensive guidance on contract signing, including targets, methods, quantities, pricing mechanisms, and regulatory measures for compliance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing and Compliance - The 2026 plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 long-term contract plan, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism since 2017. The compliance requirements for long-term contracts have been slightly relaxed from 2022 to 2026, but the foundation for compliance remains intact [3]. - For electric companies, the principle is that the signed contracts should not be less than 80% of the signing demand, with 80% of these contracts being subject to key regulatory oversight. The wording has been modified from "should not be less than" to "principally should not be less than" [3]. - For coal companies, the requirement remains that the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [3]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for coal from production areas will include a new monthly adjustment mechanism, while the benchmark price for port contracts remains unchanged. The production area pricing will be based on a "benchmark price + floating price" model, with the benchmark price being the median of reasonable price ranges from key coal-producing regions [4]. - The adjustment in the pricing mechanism for production area contracts allows for closer alignment with market changes, while the port pricing mechanism remains stable despite previous long-term contract price discrepancies [4]. Compliance Supervision - The compliance requirements have been relaxed, emphasizing seasonal adjustments. The monthly compliance rate should not be less than 80%, with quarterly and annual compliance rates ideally not less than 90%. There is a new emphasis on increasing compliance during peak demand periods [4]. Investment Recommendations - With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited. Following the recovery of coal prices, compliance with long-term contracts is expected to improve significantly. If prices remain high, there is considerable potential for performance recovery in coal companies. Key companies to watch include Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].