Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities maintains a Buy rating on Carnival Corporation with a price target of $38, anticipating results in line with consensus for the third-quarter earnings report on September 29 [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Recent industry commentary presents mixed signals, with Royal Caribbean showing a softer yield outlook while Norwegian Cruise Line aligns more closely with forecasts [1] - Both operators indicate strength in close-in bookings and onboard spending [1] Group 2: Company Performance Indicators - BofA's internal card data reveals that monthly cruise spending growth accelerated to 11.9% year-on-year in August, up from 9% in July, which is expected to support Carnival's results [2] - The bullish outlook on Carnival is attributed to strong fundamentals, the launch of Celebration Key in July providing a yield tailwind, ongoing deleveraging with limited capital expenditures, and an attractive valuation at 8.5x estimated 2026 EBITDAR compared to a historical average of 10x [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Carnival, driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Carnival is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.31 per share, reflecting a +3.2% change year-over-year, with revenues projected at $8.05 billion, up 2% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.8% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows a positive Earnings ESP of +3.34% for Carnival, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of 2 indicates a high likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12][10]. Historical Performance - Carnival has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates, achieving a surprise of +45.83% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. - Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates each time [14]. Conclusion - Carnival is positioned as a strong candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors influencing stock performance beyond earnings results [15][17].

Group 1 - Major market movers include Micron Technology Inc. after the close on Tuesday [1] - Accenture plc Class A (Ireland) is set to report pre-market [1] - Costco Wholesale Corporation will report after the close on Thursday, noted for having the highest earnings density [1] Group 2 - Next Monday will focus on the leisure sector, with Carnival Corporation and Carnival Plc ADS reporting pre-market [1]

Company Overview - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is a Miami-based cruise company valued at $35.6 billion, specializing in leisure travel services with a diverse range of cruise vacation options [1] - CCL is categorized as a large-cap stock, highlighting its significant size and influence in the travel services industry [2] Financial Performance - CCL's stock has experienced a 7% decline from its 52-week high of $32.80, reached on September 11, but has gained 29.3% over the past three months, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 11.4% gains [3] - Year-to-date, CCL shares have risen 22.5%, and over the past 52 weeks, they have climbed 62.7%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's YTD gains of 13.3% and 16.6% [4] Market Position and Strategy - CCL has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since early May, indicating a bullish trend [5] - The company is enhancing its fleet strategy with new builds and upgrades, including the refurbishment of AIDAdiva and upcoming launches of Carnival Festivale and Carnival Tropicale, aimed at improving guest experiences and reducing debt [6] Recent Earnings Report - On June 24, CCL shares rose by 6.9% following the release of Q2 results, with an adjusted EPS of $0.35 surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $0.24, and revenue of $6.3 billion exceeding forecasts of $6.2 billion [7]

Group 1 - Carnival's revenue in Q2 2025 reached a record $6.3 billion, with customer deposits at an all-time high of $8.5 billion and operating income of $934 million, up 67% year over year [3] - The stock has increased by 184% over the past three years, turning a $1,000 investment into $2,840 [4] - Despite significant gains, Carnival's current price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 represents a 34% discount compared to the S&P 500, indicating an attractive valuation for investors [5] Group 2 - Future revenue and profit growth for Carnival is expected to moderate as it comes off a low base from the pandemic years, but the long-term opportunity remains strong due to the small market share of cruises in the global leisure industry [6] - Carnival's business has rebounded significantly post-pandemic, with rising revenue and profits supporting the stock price increase [7]

Core Insights - Major indexes have shown significant gains in 2025, with the S&P 500 up approximately 12% and the Nasdaq Composite up around 15% [1][2] - Despite record highs for top indexes, some companies have seen their share prices decline over 50% from peak levels [2] Company Overview: Carnival Corporation - Carnival is the largest cruise company globally, currently facing challenges due to high debt accumulated during the pandemic [4] - The stock is 57% off its all-time highs but has increased nearly 100% over the past year, indicating a strong business rebound and effective debt management [5] - The company is investing in fleet and destination enhancements, including the launch of Celebration Key and a new ship, Carnival Festivale, set to debut in 2027 [6] Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter of 2025, Carnival exceeded guidance for net yields, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income, reporting record revenue and operating income [7] - Deposits reached an all-time high of $8.5 billion, with 93% of 2025 occupancy booked at high ticket prices [7] - Carnival's management achieved its SEA change strategy goals ahead of schedule and raised guidance across various metrics for the full year [8] Debt Management - Carnival ended the quarter with over $27 billion in debt, significantly above pre-pandemic levels, but has made progress in reducing this debt [9] - The company has refinanced $7 billion in debt this year and prepaid $350 million of $1.4 billion due next year [9] - Lower interest rates are expected to facilitate further debt repayment, enhancing the company's financial stability [10]

Economic Context - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a point in September, with indications of two more cuts in October and December [1][2] - Mixed signals in the economy complicate the decision-making process, with inflation remaining higher than desired while the job market shows signs of faltering [2] Company Analysis Visa - Visa is the largest credit card company globally, serving as a key indicator of consumer spending habits [5] - The company benefits from increased economic activity as lower interest rates stimulate spending, leading to higher processed transaction volumes [6] - In the fiscal third quarter of 2025, Visa reported a 14% year-over-year revenue increase and an 8% rise in payments volume, with net income also up by 8% [7] - Visa is considered a solid long-term investment, supported by its low-cost business model and backing from notable investors like Warren Buffett [7] SoFi Technologies - SoFi, a neobank, is positioned to benefit from lower interest rates due to its significant lending segment and rapid growth compared to traditional banks [8][9] - The company offers a range of financial services, including loans and cryptocurrency trading, and is expanding into international money transfers via Blockchain [10][11] - SoFi has already seen accelerated revenue growth and improved credit metrics as interest rates decline, which is expected to positively impact all its business segments [12][13] Carnival Corporation - Carnival is experiencing high demand for cruises, with record operating income and plans for new ships and destinations [14] - The company carries over $27 billion in debt but has been refinancing at better rates, saving millions in interest payments [15] - Despite concerns about its debt, Carnival's strong market position and healthy demand suggest potential for stock price appreciation as profitability improves [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Both Carnival and Chewy are experiencing revenue growth and present strong long-term investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector [1][2]. Group 1: Carnival - Carnival, the largest cruise operator, faced significant challenges during the pandemic, leading to a substantial increase in debt [4]. - The company has made progress by replacing older ships with fuel-efficient vessels, enhancing onboard spending strategies, and focusing on debt repayment, particularly variable-rate borrowings [4]. - Recent financial performance includes record revenue of $6.3 billion and customer deposits reaching $8.5 billion, with advanced bookings for next year matching record levels at higher fares [5]. - Carnival has exceeded financial targets in its turnaround plan, achieving the highest adjusted return on invested capital in over 20 years [6]. - Lower interest rates are expected to facilitate debt repayment and encourage consumer spending on cruises [7]. Group 2: Chewy - Chewy is a leading e-commerce platform for pet supplies, with a loyal customer base supported by its Autoship service, which accounts for 83% of overall sales [8]. - The company reported a sales increase of over 8% to $3.1 billion, with Autoship sales climbing 15% [9]. - Chewy has diversified its revenue by opening veterinary clinics, allowing it to introduce e-commerce services to new customers [10]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with no debt and over $590 million in cash [11]. - Chewy's loyal customer base, as evidenced by Autoship metrics, positions it well for long-term success despite competition [11]. Group 3: Investment Comparison - Both Carnival and Chewy are considered reasonably priced, with Carnival trading at 15 times forward earnings estimates and Chewy at 29 times [12]. - The high debt level of Carnival poses a risk, while Chewy's debt-free status is viewed favorably [14][15]. - If only one stock could be chosen, Chewy is preferred due to its lack of debt and strong customer loyalty [15].

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) achieved record customer deposits in Q2 2025, increasing by over $250 million year-over-year, indicating strong underlying demand and effective cash inflow management ahead of sailings [1][8] - The company reported a 6.5% year-over-year growth in net yields, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points, driven by extended booking windows and a focus on same-ship revenue growth [2][8] - CCL improved its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.7x from 4.1x, supported by record operating results and refinancing, enhancing its balance sheet and liquidity [3][8] Booking and Revenue Strategy - The increase in deposits reflects CCL's successful strategy of extending the booking window, allowing for better yield management and pricing optimization as sailings approach [2] - Upcoming product catalysts, including a new private destination in the Caribbean, are expected to further boost deposits and enhance revenue visibility [4] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) reported strong forward bookings for 2025, with both volume and pricing exceeding last year's levels, contributing to higher advance cash collections [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) also noted record Advanced Ticket Sales (ATS) of approximately $4 billion, indicating robust demand and serving as a strategic funding source for debt reduction [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - CCL's stock has increased by 32.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 13.4% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for CCL stands at 14.04X, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.63X, suggesting potential undervaluation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a year-over-year earnings increase of 41.6% for fiscal 2025 and 14.1% for fiscal 2026, with EPS estimates having risen in the past 60 days [11]

Group 1 - Carnival (CCL), Elbit Systems (ELBT), and Century Aluminum (CENX) are highlighted as stocks to watch due to analysts increasing profit expectations for these companies [1] - Carnival and Century Aluminum have reached buy zones, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] - Century Aluminum has achieved a Relative Strength Rating of 90-plus, marking it as an elite performer in the market [2]