证券时报·数据宝统计，蒙牛乳业在港交所公告显示，6月30日以每股16.100港元至16.140港元的价格回 购25.00万股，回购金额达403.08万港元。该股当日收盘价16.100港元，下跌0.98%，全天成交额3.84亿 港元。 自6月19日以来公司已连续8日进行回购，合计回购285.00万股，累计回购金额4632.09万港元。 其间该 股累计下跌4.17%。 今年以来该股累计进行51次回购，合计回购1130.20万股，累计回购金额1.97亿港元。（数据宝） 蒙牛乳业回购明细 | 日期 | 回购股数（万股） | 回购最高价（港元） | 回购最低价（港元） | 回购金额（万港元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.06.30 | 25.00 | 16.140 | 16.100 | 403.08 | | 2025.06.27 | 30.00 | 16.300 | 16.260 | 488.72 | | 2025.06.26 | 25.00 | 16.500 | 16.460 | 411.94 | | 2025.06.25 | 35.00 | 16.460 | 1 ...

奶源+渠道+产品三要素构筑坚实护城河。奶源端，公司通过战略投资现代牧业、中国圣牧等大型牧业 集团、与原生态牧业、上陵牧业等建立长期合作关系，实现对上游优质奶源的掌控；渠道端，公司根据 市场环境变化持续调整渠道体系，不断推进渠道扁平化改革、实现渠道下沉，终端网点掌控力持续提 升，组建全国化的渠道网络；品牌/产品端，公司通过持续的产品创新满足多元化、高端化和健康化的 消费需求，形成覆盖乳业全品类的多元化的产品矩阵，并通过体育、娱乐营销等方式构筑高端、国际化 的品牌形象，以创新与情感链接筑牢品牌护城河，稳居全球乳业价值十强。 2024 年经营压力出清，2025 年否极泰来，盈利能力有望修复。2024 年由于需求环境疲软，公司主动进 行渠道库存的优化，当前公司的库存水平、渠道库存预计均回落到正常区间，轻装上阵有望实现恢复性 增长。另一方面，公司根据环境变化，计提商誉减值11.5 亿，其他无形资产减值（主要为贝拉米商标减 值）34.9 亿。展望2025 年，随着库存压力缓解，以及减值风险出清，预计盈利能力有望触底回升。 行业环境：上游产能持续出清，奶价有望企稳，有利于盈利改善。当前上游奶源去化已初显成效，体现 为社会散 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to enhance shareholder value amidst market fluctuations [2][3] Share Buyback Details - On June 26, 2025, Mengniu Dairy repurchased 250,000 shares at a price range of HKD 16.460 to HKD 16.500, totaling HKD 4.1194 million [2] - The stock closed at HKD 16.480 on the same day, reflecting a 0.61% increase with a total trading volume of HKD 312 million [2] - Since June 19, 2025, the company has conducted buybacks for six consecutive days, acquiring a total of 2.3 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 37.4029 million [2] - Year-to-date, Mengniu Dairy has executed 49 buybacks, totaling 10.752 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 188 million [2] Historical Buyback Data - The buyback activity includes various dates with specific details on the number of shares repurchased, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent [3] - For instance, on June 25, 2025, 350,000 shares were repurchased at a maximum price of HKD 16.460, amounting to HKD 5.753 million [3] - The buyback strategy appears to be consistent, with multiple transactions recorded throughout May and June 2025, reflecting a proactive approach to managing share price and investor confidence [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy [3][8] Core Views - The company is expected to recover profitability in 2025 after a challenging 2024, driven by inventory optimization and a stabilizing raw milk price environment [7][10] - The strategic focus on "One Body, Two Wings" aims to enhance operational efficiency and quality across core business segments while expanding innovative and international operations [7][22] - The report forecasts significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a target price indicating a potential 40% upside from the current market valuation [8][10] Summary by Sections Management Stability and Core Competitiveness - Mengniu Dairy's largest shareholder is COFCO Group, holding 24.24% of shares, which provides stable management and strategic support [17] - The company has established a solid competitive advantage through strategic investments in upstream dairy sources and a robust distribution network [29][34] Raw Milk Price Stabilization - The report anticipates that raw milk prices will stabilize in 2025, benefiting from ongoing supply adjustments in the upstream dairy sector [10][49] - The reduction in raw milk supply is expected to improve the overall profitability of the industry [10][49] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Mengniu Dairy are set at RMB 90.44 billion, RMB 94.03 billion, and RMB 97.34 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 1.99%, 3.97%, and 3.52% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rebound significantly from RMB 104.51 million in 2024 to RMB 4.67 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4371.16% [6][8] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Key catalysts for stock performance include breakthrough product innovations, improvement in terminal demand, and a more favorable competitive landscape [11][39] - The company’s ongoing efforts in product innovation and marketing strategies are expected to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [39][40]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to support its stock price amid recent declines [2][3]. Share Buyback Details - On June 23, Mengniu Dairy repurchased 500,000 shares at a price range of HKD 15.980 to HKD 16.080, totaling HKD 8.0243 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 16.080 on the same day, reflecting a decrease of 1.47%, with a total trading volume of HKD 369 million [2]. - Since June 19, the company has conducted buybacks for three consecutive days, acquiring a total of 1.3 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 21.0078 million, during which the stock price fell by 4.29% [2]. - Year-to-date, Mengniu Dairy has executed 46 buybacks, totaling 9.752 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 171 million [2]. Buyback Transaction Table - A detailed table of buyback transactions shows various dates, number of shares repurchased, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent [3]. - For example, on June 20, 40,000 shares were repurchased at a maximum price of HKD 16.340, amounting to HKD 6.5093 million [3]. - The buyback activity reflects a consistent effort by the company to stabilize its stock price amidst market fluctuations [2][3].

5 June 2025 | 10:59PM HKT Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: UHT milk demand softness persists; investing in channels for share gain We hosted Mengniu's IR team at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on Jun 5. Key takeaways include: 1) Recent trends: Company noted still weak YTD demand trend for UHT liquid milk, with Apr/May trends tracking largely similar to 1Q25 without notable consumption sentiment uptick. YTD trends showing healthy growth in fresh milk/chilled yogurt and other c ...

蒙牛乳业 20250527 摘要 蒙牛乳业收入长期保持增长，虽受外部事件冲击，但新业务拓展有望实 现稳健增长。商誉减值计提曾导致利润波动，但公司现金流稳健，分红 坚挺，显示出较强的财务韧性。 总裁高飞上任后，对蒙牛进行改革调整，短期内渠道趋于平稳。预计调 整完成后，经营效能将提升，收入增速有望回补，经营效率也将提高， 2025 年有望实现双重改善。 中国乳制品行业销量增长平稳，受人口结构和原奶价格下跌影响，出现 量价双跌。原奶价格下跌顺利传导至终端售价，反映出原奶成本占比大 且品质同质化的特点。 液态奶是蒙牛的支柱业务，冰淇淋和奶酪业务是潜在增长点。中粮集团 的控股股东地位提供稳定支持，贝拉米、雅士利等业务单元以及海外布 局为未来增长奠定基础。 城乡消费差异和冷链物流发展为中国乳制品市场带来增长机会。农村居 民收入提升和南方地区西式饮食习惯普及可能驱动奶制品消费量增加。 Q&A 蒙牛乳业的基本情况及其在中国乳制品行业中的地位如何？ 蒙牛乳业是中国乳制品行业的双龙头之一，长期专注于液态奶产品。其主要产 品包括常温液态奶如特仑苏、纯真，以及低温鲜奶每日鲜语等。此外，蒙牛还 通过另一家上市公司妙可蓝多进行业务扩展， ...

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, leveraging its partnership with COFCO Group to drive growth through new product categories and international expansion [1] Company Overview - Mengniu Dairy's revenue composition for 2024 is projected to be 82.40% from liquid milk, 5.84% from ice cream, 3.74% from milk powder, 4.87% from cheese, and 3.15% from other dairy products, indicating a stable performance in its core liquid milk business [1] - The company has established six production bases overseas, contributing to its international business growth, with overseas revenue share increasing since 2019 [1] - Mengniu has over a thousand cooperative farms in China, with daily milk collection exceeding 20,000 tons, ensuring a solid supply chain [3] Industry Trends - The raw milk supply and demand are expected to rebalance, with a 24.53% decline in average raw milk prices from the end of 2021 to July 2023, indicating a potential price stabilization [2] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-quality and health-oriented products, with innovations such as low-temperature short-shelf-life milk and sugar-free yogurt gaining traction [2] Product Development and Strategy - Mengniu is expanding its product matrix beyond liquid milk to include fresh milk, cheese, ice cream, and milk powder, with increasing revenue contributions from these categories [3] - The company has implemented a "deep distribution" strategy since 2017, enhancing its penetration in rural markets and improving operational efficiency through digitalization [3] Financial Outlook - The company's net profit margin is relatively high compared to regional dairy companies, with expectations for improved profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and product upgrades continue [4] - Projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 5.08 billion and 5.69 billion respectively, with current PE ratios around 13 times and 12 times, indicating significant upside potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability as raw milk supply and demand approach balance, leading to a slowdown in price competition. The ongoing product upgrades, particularly in high-end segments like fresh milk and cheese, are anticipated to positively contribute to overall profitability [3][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic dairy industry, backed by COFCO Group, and is diversifying its product categories. In 2024, the revenue breakdown is projected to be 82.40% from liquid milk, 5.84% from ice cream, 3.74% from milk powder, 4.87% from cheese, and 3.15% from other dairy products [6][14]. - The liquid milk segment remains the core business, with stable growth, while ice cream and cheese segments are expected to see further revenue increases, with cheese showing a year-on-year growth of 0.45 percentage points [6][26]. Industry Analysis - The raw milk supply and demand are expected to rebalance, with a potential price turning point on the horizon. Since 2018, milk production has increased for six consecutive years, but recent demand pressures have led to a 24.53% decline in average raw milk prices from late 2021 to July 2023. The stabilization of milk prices is anticipated to improve the profitability of dairy companies [7][9]. - The trend towards high-quality and health-oriented products is expected to drive long-term demand growth in the dairy sector. Innovations in product offerings, such as low-temperature short-shelf-life milk and sugar-free yogurt, align with the health-conscious consumer trend [7]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its upstream milk source through investments in farms and strategic partnerships. It currently collaborates with over a thousand farms, ensuring that 100% of its fresh milk comes from large-scale, intensive farms [8]. - The company is also focusing on digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and expand its distribution channels, particularly in rural areas [8][30]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 886.75 million in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 10.09%, while the net profit is expected to be 1.05 billion, down 97.83% year-on-year. The revenue drop is attributed to weak industry demand, but ongoing product innovation and channel expansion are expected to enhance market presence [23][26].

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to support its stock price amid recent declines [2][3]. Group 1: Share Buyback Activity - On May 13, Mengniu Dairy repurchased 200,000 shares at a price range of HKD 18.100 to HKD 18.380, totaling HKD 3.6505 million [2]. - Since May 6, the company has conducted share buybacks for six consecutive days, acquiring a total of 970,000 shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 18.3404 million, during which the stock price has dropped by 9.78% [2]. - Year-to-date, the company has completed 22 share buybacks, totaling 4.88 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 86.2205 million [3]. Group 2: Buyback Details - The buyback details for May 13 include a maximum price of HKD 18.380 and a minimum price of HKD 18.100, with a total expenditure of HKD 3.6505 million [3]. - The buyback activities from May 6 to May 12 show a consistent pattern, with the highest buyback price recorded at HKD 19.900 on May 6 and the lowest at HKD 18.100 on May 13 [3][4]. - A detailed table of buyback activities lists various dates, share quantities, maximum and minimum prices, and total amounts spent, reflecting a strategic approach to managing share value [3][4].