Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is highlighted as a strong growth stock under $30, with a recent price target increase by BofA from $9.50 to $12.50, maintaining a Neutral rating ahead of its Q3 2025 earnings report [1]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported a $271 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The company achieved shipment volumes of 4.3 million tons, reflecting a sequential increase of 150,000 tons [2]. - Operational efficiencies resulted in a $15 per ton decrease in unit costs, contrary to expectations of an increase, while the average selling price rose by $35 per ton to $1,015 per ton [2]. Liquidity and Cost Management - At the end of the quarter, Cleveland-Cliffs had liquidity of $2.7 billion [3]. - The company is on track to meet its full-year target of reducing steel unit costs by $50 per ton and has lowered its full-year 2025 expectations for combined SG&A and capital expenditures by $50 million [3]. Market Context - Cleveland-Cliffs benefits from Section 232 steel tariffs, which are seen as supportive of the domestic steel industry [3]. - The company operates as a flat-rolled steel producer in the US, Canada, and internationally, previously known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. [4].

Group 1 - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:CLF) shares declined by 3.67% to close at $11.29 as investors sold off positions amid uncertainty regarding President Trump's visit to the UK and discussions on the steel industry [1][2]. - The US government has disappointed the UK by not agreeing to zero tariffs on steel imports, which has implications for Cleveland-Cliffs [2]. - The UK remains optimistic about a potential trade deal concerning steel, especially after Trump indicated possible tariff relief, which could benefit Cleveland-Cliffs by providing a competitive edge through lower pricing and costs [3]. Group 2 - While Cleveland-Cliffs shows potential as an investment, there is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer higher returns with limited downside risk, suggesting a shift in focus for investors [4].

Group 1: Company Performance and Analyst Ratings - Rubrik, Inc. reported second-quarter revenue of $309.86 million, a 51% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $282.22 million, and had a loss of three cents per share, better than the expected loss of 34 cents per share [1] - Seagate Technology Holdings plc received an Outperform rating from Bernstein analyst Mark Newman with a price target of $250, but caution is advised due to its recent price run [2] - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was maintained with an Equal-Weight rating by Wells Fargo, with a price target raised from $10 to $11, while BofA Securities maintained a Neutral rating and increased the price target from $9.5 to $12.5 [3] - SAP SE was noted as a buy following a good quarter and the announcement of a revamped strategy for digital sovereignty and AI innovation, expanding its SAP Sovereign Cloud portfolio [4] Group 2: Stock Price Movements - Seagate shares increased by 1.1% to $213.36 [7] - Rubrik shares decreased by 1.5% to close at $73.89 [7] - Eagle Materials shares fell by 1.7% to settle at $230.02 [7] - Cleveland-Cliffs shares dropped by 3.7% to $11.29 [7] - SAP shares rose by 3.1% to close at $261.42 [7]

Core Insights - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) stock has seen its Relative Strength (RS) Rating upgraded from 77 to 84, indicating improved market leadership and price performance compared to other stocks in major indexes [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The RS Rating upgrade reflects a significant increase in Cleveland-Cliffs' stock performance over the past 52 weeks, moving into the 80-plus level, which is historically associated with strong market leadership [1][2]. Group 2: Market Context - The upgrade comes amid broader market movements, with various indices experiencing fluctuations, including the Dow Jones Index dipping while other stocks, such as those held by Bill Ackman, show positive performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has shown a strong stock performance recently, returning +8.3% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 composite's +3% and the Zacks Steel - Producers industry's +4.4% [1] Earnings Estimates - Cleveland-Cliffs is expected to report a loss of $0.43 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -30.3% [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is -$2.07, indicating a significant year-over-year change of -183.6% [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $0.20, representing a year-over-year increase of +109.5% [5] - Over the last 30 days, the consensus estimates have changed by -4.1% for the current quarter and -5.1% for the current fiscal year [4][5] Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $4.92 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of +7.6% [10] - For the current and next fiscal years, the revenue estimates are $19.32 billion and $20.4 billion, indicating changes of +0.7% and +5.6%, respectively [10] Last Reported Results - Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.93 billion in the last quarter, a year-over-year decrease of -3.1% [11] - The EPS for the same period was -$0.50, compared to $0.11 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of +0.62% and an EPS surprise of +26.47% [11] Valuation - Cleveland-Cliffs is graded F on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [16] - The assessment of valuation multiples such as P/E, P/S, and P/CF suggests that the stock may be overvalued relative to its historical values and peers [14][16] Conclusion - The current Zacks Rank of 3 suggests that Cleveland-Cliffs may perform in line with the broader market in the near term, despite the mixed signals from earnings and revenue estimates [17]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs has seen a 14% increase in stock price year-to-date, but its operational performance and financial health are concerning, making it vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in steel prices [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $5.8 billion, a 6% decline year-over-year due to weakened steel prices [3] - Net income fell to $345 million, a 22% decrease, while adjusted EBITDA dropped to $720 million [3] - Free cash flow decreased to $210 million, reflecting lower prices and increased input costs [3] Growth Analysis - Cleveland-Cliffs has experienced declining growth, with revenues decreasing at an average annual rate of 7.9% over the last three years, compared to 5.3% for the S&P 500 [4] - Sales fell by 12% in the past twelve months, from $21 billion to $18 billion, with a recent quarterly revenue decline of 3.1% year-over-year to $4.9 billion [4] Profitability Metrics - The company incurred $1.6 billion in operating losses over the past year, with an operating margin of -8.6% and a net income margin of -9% [5] - Cleveland's operating, cash flow, and net margins are significantly lower than the S&P 500 averages of 18.8%, 20.2%, and 12.8% respectively [5] Financial Stability - Cleveland-Cliffs has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 145.1%, compared to the S&P 500 average of 20.2% [7] - Cash constitutes only 0.3% of total assets, indicating limited flexibility to invest and navigate uncertainties [7] Investment Appeal - The combination of weak growth, limited financial stability, and low profitability makes Cleveland-Cliffs unappealing to investors, despite its low valuation [8]

Summary of Key Takeaways from the SMU Steel Summit 2025 Industry Overview - The conference focused on the North American steel market, with over 1,500 attendees from more than 500 companies, including producers, service centers, traders, consultants, and regulators [1] Core Insights 1. **Mixed Sentiment on Demand**: - Industry participants expressed a mixed outlook for demand in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, with some expecting a decline in volumes while others anticipated steady demand [2][4] - Average volumes in the first half of 2025 were reported to be up 3-5% year-over-year, but flat volumes for the year would be considered a win by some [4] 2. **US HRC Pricing Expectations**: - There is a consensus that US Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) pricing could remain stable to slightly improve due to continued import displacement, with expectations for prices to stay between $800-$900 per short ton in 2025 [2][4] 3. **Tariff Stability**: - Most participants believe that US tariffs on imported steel will remain in place, although there is uncertainty regarding the final levels and potential exceptions, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico [2][4] 4. **Cautious Optimism for 2026**: - Overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism for the near term, with a more constructive outlook heading into 2026 [3] Company-Specific Insights 1. **Nucor Corporation (NUE)**: - Rated as a Buy with a 12-month price target of $182, based on an 8.8x multiple on revised EBITDA estimates [6] - Risks include lower-than-expected demand from fiscal stimulus, stalled steel price improvements, and underperformance from recent acquisitions [6] 2. **Commercial Metals Company (CMC)**: - Also rated as a Buy with a 12-month price target of $67, based on a 7.5x multiple on EBITDA estimates [6] - Similar risks as NUE, including smaller-than-expected growth in the Emerging Business Group and demand from fiscal stimulus [6] 3. **Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)**: - Rated as a Buy with a 12-month price target of $12.85, based on a 7.2x multiple on EBITDA estimates [6] - Risks include lower-than-expected cash flow and prolonged downturns in US automotive production, which constitutes about one-third of CLF's direct sales [6] Additional Considerations - The conference highlighted the importance of understanding the dynamics of the steel industry, including the impact of tariffs, pricing stability, and demand fluctuations, which are critical for investment decisions in this sector [2][4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. technology sector has dominated market attention, leading to an overconcentration of capital, while other industries, including Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., present undervalued investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunity - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is positioned for potential growth, with a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of 13 cents by Q1 2026, a significant increase from the current net loss of 68 cents [4]. - The stock currently trades at 73% of its 52-week high, indicating a potential for recovery and growth [3]. - The price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio for Cleveland-Cliffs is at 0.5x, suggesting that the stock is undervalued and has room for growth to reflect future EPS increases [5][6]. Group 2: Institutional Support - State Street Corp. increased its holdings in Cleveland-Cliffs by 20.2%, totaling $208.6 million, which reflects confidence in the company's future earnings potential [7]. - The Wall Street consensus currently rates Cleveland-Cliffs as a Hold, with a target price of $10.9 per share, indicating a 4.5% upside [8][10]. - There is a significant short position in Cleveland-Cliffs, amounting to $853.9 million or 16.7% of the float, which could lead to a short squeeze if the stock rallies [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for raw materials, particularly steel, driven by the development of EPS growth centers and semiconductor manufacturing, positions Cleveland-Cliffs favorably [12]. - Current tariffs on steel imports may enhance the appeal of domestic steel, benefiting Cleveland-Cliffs in the context of rising domestic project demands [13].

Core Insights - The article introduces David Hotea as a new contributing analyst for Seeking Alpha, emphasizing the opportunity for others to share investment ideas and gain exposure [1] Group 1 - The author expresses a strong interest in financial markets, particularly in productive companies and free market capitalism [2] - The foundational investment literature that influenced the author's perspective includes Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" and "Security Analysis," which shifted the focus towards the Heavy Industrial Sector, specifically steelmaking [2] - The author has engaged with Austrian Economic theory, which has informed the understanding of credit cycles and their impact on industrial firms [2] Group 2 - The author has also studied technical aspects of steelmaking, indicating a comprehensive approach to understanding the industry [2] - The intention to write for Seeking Alpha is driven by a desire to share sound investment theories and principles of Austrian Economics to aid informed decision-making [2]

Industry Trend - The steel industry is preparing for inflationary effects due to President Donald Trump's import tariffs [1] - American carmakers are anticipating long-term impacts from the tariffs [1] Company Strategy - Cleveland-Cliffs has secured multiyear deals with several American carmakers [1] - The duration of the deals is unusual, suggesting a proactive approach to managing future costs [1]