Group 1 - The global AI spending is projected to increase by 44% in 2026, reaching $2.5 trillion, with AI infrastructure comprising 54% of this expenditure [1] - Celestica's stock has surged 177% over the past year, positioning the company as a potential major beneficiary of the anticipated AI spending growth [2] - The company's connectivity and cloud solutions (CCS) segment has experienced significant growth, with a 43% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, amounting to $2.4 billion, and representing 76% of Celestica's total revenue [6] Group 2 - Celestica's revenue guidance for 2025 is $12.2 billion, indicating a 26% increase from the previous year, with non-GAAP earnings expected to rise by 52% to $5.90 per share [7] - The company anticipates a 31% revenue growth and a 39% increase in earnings to $8.20 per share in 2026, reflecting continued strong performance [7] - Celestica is gaining market share in the data center networking space, benefiting from the expansion of AI data centers and partnerships with major AI chip manufacturers [8]

Core Viewpoint - Celestica Inc. (CLS) stock has exceeded expectations with a gain of over 10% since October, outperforming the S&P 500, which only increased by 3-4% during the same period [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CLS stock has gained over 10% since the author's October prediction of a likely pullback [1] - The S&P 500 index has only provided a return of 3-4% in the same timeframe [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The author has five years of experience in delivering strategic insights and analysis within the private banking sector [1] - The author's career began in 2020 after graduating from a top university in Central Asia [1] - The focus of the author's methodology includes corporate valuation, due diligence for investment opportunities, and crafting forecasts for long-term investment strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The goal of contributing to Seeking Alpha is to discuss investment ideas and gain "alpha" through out-of-consensus information [1] - Novo Capital was created to provide unique insights that are not commonly held by professionals in the field [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call was on the **data center and networking equipment market** for the years **2026/27** with insights from **650 Group** [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **AI-driven Networking and Compute Spend**: The outlook remains elevated, driven by new XPUs, 800G network upgrades, and continued investments in scaling technologies [2][3] - **Networking Vendors**: Companies like **Arista (ANET)** and **Celestica (CLS)** are well-positioned to benefit from the adoption of 800G networking by hyperscalers in 2026/27 [2][3] - **Meta's Investment**: It is expected that **Meta's** spending on networking will significantly increase in 2026/27 after two years of under-investment, benefiting partners like ANET, CLS, and **Cisco (CSCO)** [3] - **Ethernet Networking Adoption**: Wider adoption in **Microsoft AI clusters** is anticipated to start in 2027, with 2026 still focused on existing Infiniband infrastructure [3] - **Scale Across Demand**: There is robust demand for connecting more data halls across geographies, primarily driven by Ethernet, although Infiniband demand will persist [3] Additional Important Insights - **Connector and Cabling Growth**: A significant increase in connector and cabling content per rack is expected with the introduction of **Rubin/Rubin Ultra**, compared to **Blackwell**. This growth is attributed to rising product complexity and sophisticated pin designs, benefiting companies like **Amphenol (APH)** and **TE Connectivity (TEL)** [2][5] - **Long-term Growth in Optics**: There is a positive outlook for optics, with recent transactions like **Amphenol - CCS** indicating strong growth potential [5] - **Cooling Technology**: The industry is expected to become more efficient, with new cooling technologies needed at 1 MW [5] - **Hyperscaler Preferences**: Hyperscalers are likely to continue using a mix of best-in-breed and white-box solutions, while enterprises may prefer reference-design systems from vendors with strong channel presences [6] Company Recommendations - **Buy Ratings**: The following companies have been assigned buy ratings: - **Amphenol Corp.** (Buy, $154.22) - **Arista Networks Inc.** (Buy, $130.59) - **Celestica Inc.** (Buy, $313.53) - **Flex** (Buy, $66.59) - **TE Connectivity Plc** (Buy, $241.92) [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the trends, company positions, and market outlook for the data center and networking equipment industry.

Core Viewpoint - Celestica Inc. has shown significant stock performance with a 180.20% increase over the past year, leading to optimism among long-term shareholders, while concerns about potential overvaluation arise from the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio analysis [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The current trading price of Celestica Inc. is $315.00, reflecting a 1.60% increase in the current session [1]. - Over the past month, Celestica's stock has increased by 17.16% [1]. - The stock has experienced a remarkable 180.20% increase over the past year [1]. Group 2: P/E Ratio Analysis - The P/E ratio of Celestica Inc. is 50.41, which is higher than the aggregate P/E ratio of 40.79 for the Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components industry [4]. - A higher P/E ratio may suggest that Celestica Inc. is expected to perform better in the future compared to its industry peers [4]. - The P/E ratio serves as a useful metric for assessing market performance but should be considered alongside other financial metrics and qualitative factors [7].

Core Insights - The presentation outlines the top 10 stock picks for 2026, emphasizing strong performance in previous years and the potential for continued growth in the current market environment [10][99]. Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in 2025, with technology stocks rising by 25% and communication services by 22%, while consumer staples finished in the red [13][12]. - The S&P 500 saw a decline of nearly 20% at one point, with the top stocks for 2025 down more than 20% before rebounding to finish up close to 45% [14][23]. - Gold reached historic highs during this period, driven by global economic uncertainties and increased central bank purchases [15]. AI and Technology Sector - The AI sector played a crucial role in market dynamics, with the "Mag 7" stocks trading at a forward P/E of 31x compared to the S&P 493 at 22x, indicating a significant premium for AI-driven companies [16][17]. - Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have increased their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the return on investment for these projects [18]. Stock Performance and Recommendations - Micron Technology (MU) is highlighted as a top pick with a market cap of $355 billion, showing a 254% increase over the past year and strong growth metrics [40][41]. - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a market cap of $363 billion and a one-year return of 70%, with improved valuation metrics [52][53]. - Ciena Corporation (CIEN) has a market cap of $34 billion and a one-year return of 166%, with strong analyst revisions indicating positive sentiment [58][59]. - Celestica (CLS) and Coherent (COHR) are also noted for their strong growth and profitability metrics, with significant year-over-year returns [65][69]. Financial Sector Insights - Allstate Corporation (ALL) has a market cap of $53 billion and is focusing on AI underwriting, showing strong EPS growth of 99% year-over-year compared to the financial sector's 14% [72][76]. - Incyte Corporation (INCY) is recognized for its positive earnings and diverse pipeline in biotechnology, with a market cap of $19 billion [81][84]. Mining and Industrial Sector - Barrick Mining Corporation (B) has a market cap of $16 billion and is diversifying into copper, with a forward EPS growth rate of 46% [86][90]. - Willdan Group (WLDN) has a market cap of $1.57 billion and shows strong growth metrics, with a 61% EPS diluted growth rate [91][94]. - ATI has a market cap of $16 billion and is noted for its profitability improvements and strong analyst revisions [95][98].

Core Insights - The presentation outlines the top 10 stock picks for 2026, emphasizing strong performance in previous years and the potential for continued growth in the current market environment [10][99]. Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in 2025, with technology stocks rising by 25% and communication services by 22%, while consumer staples finished in the red [13][12]. - A notable correction occurred from February to April 2025, where top stocks were down more than 20% at one point but rebounded to finish up close to 45% for the year [14][23]. - Gold reached historic highs during this period, indicating a safe haven for investors amid market corrections [15]. AI and Technology Sector - The AI frenzy significantly influenced market dynamics, with the "Mag 7" stocks trading at a forward P/E of 31x compared to the S&P 493 at 22x, indicating a premium for AI-driven companies [16][17]. - Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have increased their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the return on investment [18]. - The market saw a sharp decline in late January 2025 due to fears of overvaluation in AI stocks, leading to significant drops in major indices [22][29]. Stock Performance - The top 10 stocks for 2025 achieved a 45.68% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which was up 17.6% [37]. - Historical performance shows that holding the top stocks from 2023 to 2025 would have yielded a 187% return compared to the S&P 500's 85% [39]. Top Stock Picks for 2026 - **Micron Technology (MU)**: Market cap of $355 billion, ranked 1 in the IT sector, with a one-year return of 254% and strong growth metrics [40][41]. - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Market cap of $363 billion, ranked 17 in IT, with a one-year return of 70% and improving valuation metrics [52][53]. - **Ciena Corporation (CIEN)**: Market cap of $34 billion, ranked 3 in IT, with a one-year return of 166% and strong analyst revisions [58][59]. - **Celestica (CLS)**: Market cap of $34 billion, ranked 5 in IT, with a one-year return of 191% and strong growth indicators [65][66]. - **Coherent (COHR)**: Market cap of $33 billion, ranked 8 in IT, with strong growth metrics and a history of consistent earnings beats [69][70]. - **Allstate Corporation (ALL)**: Market cap of $53 billion, ranked 15 in financials, with strong EPS growth and undervalued compared to the sector [72][75]. - **Incyte Corporation (INCY)**: Market cap of $19 billion, ranked 19 in healthcare, with a one-year return of 42% and strong growth potential [81][84]. - **Barrick Mining Corporation (B)**: Market cap of $X billion, ranked 4 in materials, with a one-year return of 186% and strong cash flow [86][90]. - **Willdan Group (WLDN)**: Market cap of $1.57 billion, ranked 5 in industrials, with a one-year return of 190% and strong growth metrics [91][94]. - **ATI (ATI)**: Market cap of $16 billion, ranked 4 in industrials, with a one-year return of 114% and improving profitability [95][98]. Growth Metrics - The average forward revenue growth rate for the top 10 stocks is 20%, with an average EPS growth rate of 73%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 6% revenue growth and 10% EPS growth [100].

Core Insights - Celestica Inc. (CLS) is focusing on product diversification and enhancing its presence in high-value markets to mitigate operational risks [1] - The company has a strong foundation in research and development, enabling it to produce both high-volume electronic products and complex technology infrastructure products across various industries [1] Group 1: Product and Service Offerings - Celestica provides a comprehensive range of solutions including design and development, new product introduction, engineering services, component sourcing, electronics manufacturing and assembly, testing, systems integration, logistics, product licensing, after-market repair, and IT asset management [2] - The diverse portfolio includes enterprise-level data communications and information processing infrastructure, such as routers, switches, data center interconnects, edge solutions, servers, and storage-related products, along with lifecycle solutions for mission-critical systems in aerospace/defense and medical device sectors [3] Group 2: Market Position and Performance - Celestica's diversified product and customer base enhances business resilience by reducing dependence on a single industry, thereby minimizing the adverse effects of economic downturns in specific sectors [3] - The company's stock has surged 180% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 92.7% [6] - Celestica trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.19, which is above the industry average of 0.98 [9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Jabil Inc. (JBL) emphasizes end-market and product diversification as a growth catalyst, aiming to ensure that no single product or product family exceeds 5% of operating income or cash flows in any fiscal year [4] - Sanmina Corporation (SANM) offers end-to-end solutions that streamline processes and lower costs through a vertically integrated manufacturing process, maintaining a strong presence across multiple end markets [5]

Core Insights - Celestica Inc. is successfully transitioning away from the low-margin factory business, enhancing its business model and profitability [1] Group 1: Business Model and Profitability - The company is becoming more attractive in terms of profitability due to its improved business model [1] - The focus is on identifying companies with exceptional caliber that can reinvest capital for impressive returns [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The ideal scenario involves companies demonstrating long-term capital compounding capabilities with a high compound annual growth rate, potentially delivering tenfold returns or greater [1] - A long-term perspective is maintained to generate higher returns compared to market indices in a rapidly evolving investment landscape [1] - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuit of favorable risk-reward opportunities [1]

Core Insights - Celestica, Inc. and Corning Incorporated are significant players in the global tech hardware ecosystem, with Corning focusing on advanced glass technologies and optical connectivity, while Celestica provides electronics manufacturing services and supply chain solutions [1][7] Market Overview - The global AI infrastructure market was valued at $35.42 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $223.45 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 30.4%, driven by the expansion of AI workloads [2] Celestica's Performance - Celestica's Connectivity & Cloud Solutions segment saw a 43% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by demand for advanced networking products like 400G and 800G switches, as well as enterprise-level data communications infrastructure [3][5] - The company is expanding its partnerships and launched the SC6110 storage controller, which is designed for AI infrastructure and high-performance computing [4] - Celestica's recent introduction of 1.6TbE data center switches indicates a focus on supporting high-bandwidth AI applications, which is expected to drive long-term growth [5] Corning's Performance - Corning is experiencing growth in its Optical Communications and Specialty Materials segments, benefiting from the increasing use of mobile and IoT devices and the demand for robust network architecture in AI data centers [7][8] - The company is innovating with advanced fiber and cable systems that enhance connectivity capacity in data centers without significant infrastructure changes [9] - Corning's consumer electronics segment is also a major growth driver, with collaborations with leading manufacturers and expansion into the automotive market [10] Competitive Landscape - Both companies face competition, with Corning competing against Amphenol Corporation in the communication components market, but its innovative product launches are expected to provide a competitive edge [12] - Celestica's revenue is significantly dependent on a few major customers, with 59% of its total revenues coming from three customers, posing a concentration risk [6][21] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celestica's 2025 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 26.31% and 52.06%, respectively, while Corning's sales are expected to grow by 12.99% with an EPS projected at $2.52 [13][15] - Over the past year, Celestica's stock has gained 205.3%, compared to Corning's 85.3% growth, but Corning appears more attractive from a valuation perspective with a lower price/earnings ratio [16] Investment Outlook - Celestica holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), while Corning has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable investment outlook for Corning [17][22] - Both companies are expected to benefit from margin expansion in the AI infrastructure domain, but Corning's broader market exposure reduces its risk compared to Celestica's reliance on AI infrastructure investments [18][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Celestica Inc. has transitioned from being a low-margin contract assembler to a key engineering partner for hyperscalers developing AI data centers, emphasizing its leadership in high-bandwidth networking and rapid production timelines [1] Group 1: Company Positioning - Celestica is now recognized as a highly embedded engineering partner rather than just a contract assembler, indicating a shift in its business model and value proposition [1] - The company focuses on high-bandwidth networking, which is critical for AI data centers, showcasing its strategic alignment with industry trends [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The emphasis on fast time-to-production highlights Celestica's competitive advantage in meeting the demands of hyperscalers, which is essential in the rapidly evolving tech landscape [1]