Core Viewpoint - Chipotle is facing significant challenges, with its stock down 33% over the past year, and analysts are cautious about its upcoming earnings report due to a weak consumer backdrop and flat same-store sales expectations [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - Analysts expect a 6% increase in EPS for Chipotle, projecting earnings of $0.29 compared to $0.27 in the same quarter last year [2]. - Sales are anticipated to reach approximately $3.02 billion, up from $2.79 billion in the same quarter last year, indicating high single-digit growth [2]. Same-Store Sales and Transactions - Last quarter, Chipotle reported a 4% decline in same-store sales and a 4.9% drop in total transactions, leading to decreased operating leverage [3]. - For the upcoming quarter, same-store sales are expected to remain relatively flat, which is critical for retail and restaurant performance [3][8]. Store Expansion and Digital Sales - Chipotle plans to open around 330 new stores this year, a significant increase from its current 3,750 units [4]. - Digital sales account for approximately 35% of the business, which may help improve overall performance [4]. Consumer Behavior and Pricing - The company is experiencing a price-sensitive consumer environment, where rising prices have led to a decline in transaction volume, impacting net income margins [6]. - Analysts note that the ability to raise prices may be constrained by consumer demand elasticity, which could further affect profitability [6]. Valuation Metrics - Chipotle's stock is currently trading at around 34 times its expected earnings for the fiscal year, with an EBITDA growth expectation of only 13%, suggesting it may be overvalued [7]. - The consensus on same-store sales being flat indicates potential volatility in future earnings, which could influence the stock's recalibration [8].

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill has reduced its annual sales forecast for the third time this year, indicating a trend where even affluent customers are cutting back on dining out due to rising costs [1] Company Summary - The company is experiencing a decline in sales expectations, which reflects broader consumer behavior changes in response to economic pressures [1] Industry Summary - The restaurant industry is facing challenges as consumers, including those with higher disposable incomes, are reducing their frequency of dining out amid increasing cost pressures [1]

Group 1 - Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to report third-quarter earnings with a same-store sales increase of 0.4% anticipated for 2025, marking the first growth after a slow start to the year [1] - The company previously revised its full-year same-store sales growth outlook from a low-single-digit percentage increase to flat, reflecting a decline in traffic and sales in the first half of the year [2] - Despite weakened demand, CEO Scott Boatwright remains confident in the company's strategy, while other restaurant chains are implementing turnaround plans to boost sales [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect earnings per share of 29 cents and revenue of $3.03 billion for the upcoming report [4]

Exhibit 99.1 EARNINGS RELEASE PR Contact: Laurie Schalow (949) 524-4035 MediaRelations@chipotle.com CHIPOTLE ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2025 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS POSITIVE COMPARABLE SALES NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. – October 29, 2025 – Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) today reported financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Third quarter highlights, year over year: "While we continue to see persistent macroeconomic pressures, our extraordinary value proposition and brand strength remai ...

Accessibility StatementSkip Navigation HIGHLIGHTS POSITIVE COMPARABLE SALES NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct. 29, 2025 /PRNewswire/ --Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) today reported financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Third  quarter highlights, year over year: "While we continue to see persistent macroeconomic pressures, our extraordinary value proposition and brand strength remain strong," said Scott Boatwright, Chief Executive Officer, Chipotle. "Our best-in-class teams a ...

Group 1 - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is considered a stock with significant upside potential despite recent challenges in the restaurant sector [1][2] - Bank of America has lowered its price target for Chipotle to $61 from $64 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating a cautious outlook on restaurant stocks [1][2] - The current market sentiment towards restaurant stocks is negative, influenced by macroeconomic pressures affecting a broader consumer base beyond just low-income groups [2] Group 2 - Chipotle operates a chain of restaurants and is recognized for its investment potential, although some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer better upside with less risk [3] - The article hints at the potential benefits of AI stocks from macroeconomic trends such as tariffs and onshoring, suggesting a shift in investment focus [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle has cut its full-year sales outlook for the third consecutive quarter due to declining customer traffic and economic pressures affecting its core demographic, particularly younger consumers [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Pressures - The CEO highlighted that the company is experiencing "persistent macroeconomic pressures," particularly affecting younger consumers who are under financial strain [1]. - The 25- to 35-year-old age group is facing significant challenges, including high unemployment rates and increased loan repayments, which are impacting their spending habits [2]. - Households earning $100,000 or less account for approximately 40% of Chipotle's total sales, and this demographic is reducing their frequency of visits [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Chipotle's stock fell by as much as 19% following the earnings release, reflecting investor concerns over the company's performance [4]. - The company now expects same-store sales to decline in the low-single-digit range for the year, marking the third consecutive quarter of lowered sales expectations [4]. - In the third quarter, Chipotle reported revenue of $3 billion, slightly below the expected $3.02 billion, with digital sales constituting 36.7% of total food and beverage revenue [5]. Group 3: Earnings and Future Plans - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.29, aligning with market expectations, while same-store sales growth was only 0.3%, below the anticipated 1% [6]. - The company plans to enhance restaurant execution, increase marketing spending, and innovate digital experiences to drive future growth [6][7].

Core Insights - Chipotle is expected to report third quarter results with adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 and revenue of $3.02 billion, reflecting a 7% increase in adjusted EPS and an 8.6% increase in revenue year-over-year [1] - Same-store sales are projected to rise by 1% after a 4% decline in the previous quarter, driven by higher menu prices, which are expected to increase by nearly 2%, despite a slight decrease in foot traffic of about 0.4% [2] Financial Performance - The company has faced a significant decline in stock value, down over 30% this year, and is looking to stabilize its performance for investors [1] - Following the second quarter results, the CEO indicated ongoing volatility in consumer trends, leading to a reduction in the full-year same-store sales forecast, marking the second cut of the year [3][4] Sales Forecast - Analysts anticipate a full-year same-store sales decline of 0.7%, suggesting that investors are preparing for another guidance reduction from the company [4] - The company previously adjusted its expectations for flat full-year same-store sales, down from an anticipated low-single-digit increase [4] Market Challenges - Factors contributing to the slowdown in same-store sales include weakness among low-income consumers, rising unemployment among young adults, and reduced throughput gains following a notable improvement in 2024 [5] - The introduction of a new dip, Adobo Ranch, has not significantly boosted the company's value proposition as expected [5] - There is a suspicion that Chipotle needs to improve its value perception, as certain pricing strategies, such as $1 sauce add-ons, may be counterproductive [6]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price has significantly decreased from a record high of $68.86 in January to $40 currently, indicating a substantial decline in investor confidence [1] - The market capitalization of Chipotle has fallen from $97.1 billion to a much lower figure due to this stock price drop, reflecting a major loss in value for the company [1] Financial Performance - The stock price decline represents a decrease of approximately 42% from its peak [1] - The current market capitalization is not specified in the excerpt, but the drop indicates a significant reduction in the company's overall valuation [1]

On Wednesday, Chipotle (CMG) is expected to report earnings, which should provide plenty in the way of headlines for investors in this name (and those who may not be invested in this restaurant chain) to chew on. It's been a mixed earnings season thus far, with strength seen in certain pockets of the economy (financials), while some tech companies and those operating in other sectors are seeing less-favorable dynamics play out. In the world of restaurant chains like Chipotle, the earnings outlook also app ...