Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures by 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.14% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.59%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.12%, France's CAC40 up 0.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.46% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.06% to $63.45 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.08% to $65.68 per barrel [3][4] Economic Context - The US economy demonstrates resilience against tariff impacts, with expectations of minimal volatility in the S&P 500 index following the upcoming non-farm payroll report [4] - The S&P 500 index has surged by 6.3% over the past month, marking its best May performance since 1990, and is close to its historical high [5] - Despite concerns over tariffs and rising federal deficits, the stock market remains strong, with a year-to-date increase of 1.74% and a rebound of 19.8% from the April low [5] Corporate Developments - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported Q2 revenue of $7.63 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, and adjusted its annual earnings guidance upward to $1.78-$1.90 per share [10] - Jia Yin Technology (JFIN) achieved Q1 revenue of approximately $1.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, and announced a dividend policy update [11] - Dollar Tree (DLTR) reported Q1 revenue growth of 5.4% to $4.6 billion but warned of a 50% drop in adjusted EPS for Q2 due to tariff pressures [12] - CrowdStrike (CRWD) faced a significant stock drop after Q2 revenue guidance fell short of market expectations, despite a strong Q1 performance [13] - Nvidia (NVDA) reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $3.446 trillion, driven by the AI boom [14] - Tesla (TSLA) reported a 15% year-on-year decline in May wholesale sales in China, marking the eighth consecutive month of sales drop [14] Regulatory and Policy Changes - President Trump signed an order increasing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [6] - The UK received a five-week window to negotiate a steel agreement with the US, avoiding immediate tariff increases [7] - The US Treasury is considering expanding bond buybacks as a form of quantitative easing in response to rising bond yields [7]

If you'd like to learn more about how to best position yourself in under valued stocks mispriced by the market to start June, consider joining Out Fox The Street . Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationsh ...

Core Viewpoint - CrowdStrike Holdings is considered overvalued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 122 times its adjusted trailing earnings, despite its impressive growth performance [1][6]. Group 1: Valuation and Growth - CrowdStrike's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 28.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 3.2, indicating a premium valuation [2]. - The company has achieved an average revenue growth rate of 40% over the past three years, compared to the S&P 500's 6.3% [2]. - In the most recent quarter, CrowdStrike's revenues grew by 20% to $1.1 billion, outperforming the S&P 500's growth rate [2]. Group 2: Profitability - Reported operating income for the last twelve months was -$252 million, resulting in a negative operating margin of -6.1% [3]. - On an adjusted basis, the operating margin was 20.3%, excluding stock-based compensation and one-time expenses [3]. - The company generated an operating cash flow of $1.4 billion, leading to a cash flow-to-sales ratio of 33.4%, which is significantly better than the S&P 500's 15.7% [3]. Group 3: Financial Stability - CrowdStrike has a debt of $785 million against a market capitalization of $122 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6% [4]. - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $4.6 billion, representing 53% of total assets, which is substantially higher than the S&P 500's 14.8% [4]. Group 4: Market Resilience - CrowdStrike's stock has shown greater volatility during market downturns, with a 58.3% decline during the 2022 Inflation Shock, compared to the S&P 500's 25.4% [5]. - During the 2020 Covid pandemic, the stock fell by 50.0%, again worse than the S&P 500's 33.9% decline [5]. - Although the stock recovered to pre-crisis levels, its higher volatility indicates weaker resilience during market crashes [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Current consensus estimates project average sales growth of 21% over the next couple of years, a slowdown from the previous three-year average of 40% [7]. - Given the high valuation and potential for a broader market downturn, it is suggested that now may not be the best time to invest in CrowdStrike stock [8].

Group 1 - CrowdStrike reported Q1 earnings of $0.73 per share on sales of $1.10 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.65 earnings per share on the same sales figure [1] - The company's Q1 revenue increased nearly 20%, but the adjusted operating margin fell 500 basis points year-over-year to 18% due to rising costs in professional services and higher R&D spending [3] - Despite the positive Q1 results, CrowdStrike's stock fell about 7% in extended trading, attributed to a weaker-than-expected Q2 outlook [1][2] Group 2 - CrowdStrike anticipates Q2 earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of around $1.14 billion, which is below street expectations of $0.81 earnings per share and $1.16 billion in revenue [2] - The company raised its full-year earnings guidance to $3.44 to $3.56 in adjusted earnings per share, above the consensus of $3.43, while maintaining its sales outlook of $4.74 billion to $4.81 billion, aligning with the consensus of $4.77 billion [4] - A $1 billion share buyback program was announced, which may indicate confidence in the company's long-term prospects [4] Group 3 - CrowdStrike's stock has surged 40% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 2% rise, but the stock's lofty valuations may have contributed to investor unease following the minor Q2 revenue forecast miss [5] - The critical question remains whether CRWD stock is overvalued at current levels of $460, necessitating a comparison of its valuation with recent operating performance and financial condition [6]

Group 1: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. - CrowdStrike reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter and raised its full-year guidance [2] - The company expects second-quarter revenue to be between $1.145 billion and $1.152 billion, lower than the estimated $1.23 billion [2] - Anticipated second-quarter adjusted earnings are projected to be between 82 cents and 84 cents per share, compared to estimates of 92 cents per share [2] - Following the earnings report, CrowdStrike shares fell 7% to $454.70 in pre-market trading [2] Group 2: Other Companies - Asana, Inc. shares dipped 8.4% to $17.40 after reporting first-quarter results [5] - Outset Medical Inc. shares declined 6.8% to $18.09 after naming Renee Gaeta as CFO [5] - Merus NV shares fell 5.5% to $59.01 after pricing a $300 million public offering at $57 per share [5] - Quidelortho Corp shares decreased 4.3% to $29.00 in pre-market trading [5] - ATAI Life Sciences NV shares dropped 3.4% to $2.27 after a decline of more than 5% on Tuesday [5] - Doximity Inc. shares fell 2.7% to $52.06 after gaining around 4% on Tuesday [5]

Revenue and Growth - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $4.4 billion as of April 30, 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 22% compared to $3.6 billion in 2024, which had a growth of 33%[166]. - Total revenue increased by $182.4 million, or 20%, for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, reaching $1,103.4 million[191]. - Subscription revenue accounted for 95% of total revenue for both the three months ended April 30, 2025, and April 30, 2024, with a 20% increase to $1,050.8 million[192]. - The dollar-based net retention rate was consistent with expectations as of April 30, 2025, reflecting customer renewals, expansion, contraction, and churn[168]. - The company expects seasonal patterns in net new ARR generation, typically greater in the second half of the year, especially in Q4[232]. Expenses and Profitability - The company incurred approximately $36.0 million to $53.0 million in charges related to a strategic plan, with $6.6 million recognized in the first quarter of fiscal 2026[151]. - Total cost of revenue increased by $64.1 million, or 29%, for the three months ended April 30, 2025, totaling $289.1 million[194]. - Gross profit for the three months ended April 30, 2025, was $814.3 million, a 17% increase from $696.0 million in the same period of 2024[196]. - Research and development expenses rose by $98.9 million, or 42%, for the three months ended April 30, 2025, totaling $334.1 million[199]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by $89.5 million, or 26%, for the three months ended April 30, 2025, reaching $439.6 million[198]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $61.5 million, or 59%, for the three months ended April 30, 2025[183]. - Subscription gross margin slightly decreased by 1 percentage point to 77% for the three months ended April 30, 2025[196]. - Professional services gross margin decreased by 17 percentage points to 11% for the three months ended April 30, 2025[197]. - Net income (loss) attributable to CrowdStrike was $(110.2) million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to $42.8 million in the same period of 2024, representing a decrease of $153.0 million[188]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - Net cash provided by operating activities was $384.1 million for the three months ended April 30, 2025, compared to $383.2 million in the same period of 2024[211]. - The company had $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of April 30, 2025, along with $750 million available under its Revolving Facility[206]. - Deferred revenue as of April 30, 2025, was $3.8 billion, with $2.7 billion expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months[209]. - The company has non-cancellable purchase commitments totaling $2.7 billion as of April 30, 2025, with remaining terms in excess of 12 months[223]. - The company reported a decrease in other income (expense), net by $11.6 million, or 151%, primarily due to a decrease in gains on strategic investments[203]. Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - The company plans to continue investing significantly in research and development to enhance technology platform and product functionality[161]. - Following the July 19 Incident, the company has experienced delays in creating sales opportunities and longer sales cycles, which are expected to continue affecting key metrics and results of operations[162]. - The company’s go-to-market strategy includes a low friction land-and-expand model, allowing customers to easily add additional cloud modules after initial deployment[154]. - The flexibility and scalability of the Falcon platform enable the company to target organizations of all sizes, presenting significant growth opportunities[155]. - As of April 30, 2025, the company had a backlog of approximately $3.0 billion, which is not recorded in deferred revenue[230]. Employee and Organizational Information - The company had 10,363 full-time employees as of April 30, 2025, with no labor union representation in the U.S.[234].

Core Insights - CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) reported $1.1 billion in revenue for the quarter ended April 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 19.8% and an EPS of $0.73, down from $0.93 a year ago [1] - The revenue was slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -0.10%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate by +10.61% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $4,435.6 million, surpassing the seven-analyst average estimate of $4,414.2 million [4] - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) stood at $6.8 billion, exceeding the $6.07 billion average estimate from two analysts [4] - Subscription revenue was reported at $1.05 billion, matching the 13-analyst average estimate and reflecting a year-over-year increase of +20.5% [4] - Professional services revenue was $52.67 million, above the $49.90 million estimate from 13 analysts, representing a +7.8% change year-over-year [4] - Non-GAAP subscription gross profit was $840.77 million, slightly below the nine-analyst average estimate of $843.70 million [4] - Non-GAAP professional services gross profit was $16.37 million, compared to the $17.71 million estimate from nine analysts [4] - GAAP professional services gross profit was $5.90 million, below the five-analyst average estimate of $9.07 million [4] - GAAP subscription gross profit was reported at $808.39 million, compared to the $823.81 million average estimate from five analysts [4] Stock Performance - CrowdStrike shares have returned +8.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - CrowdStrike Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $0.73 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.66 per share, but down from $0.93 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 10.61% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.1 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.10%, compared to revenues of $921.04 million a year ago [2] - Over the last four quarters, CrowdStrike has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - CrowdStrike shares have increased approximately 40% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.9% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to these expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.80 on revenues of $1.16 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.44 on revenues of $4.78 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Security industry is currently ranked in the top 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% of ranked industries [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved net new ARR of $194 million, exceeding expectations and contributing to an ending ARR of over $4.4 billion, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth [6][35]. - Subscription gross margin stood at 80%, showcasing the efficiency of the AI platform, while total gross margin was reported at 78% [7][36]. - Free cash flow reached $279 million, representing 25% of revenue, with a record cash flow from operations of $384 million [7][37]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Falcon Flex model has shown significant adoption, with a total account deal value of $3.2 billion across 820 accounts, growing 31% sequentially and more than six times year-over-year [7][9]. - The next-gen SIEM business delivered triple-digit ending ARR growth, indicating strong market demand and successful displacement of legacy products [25][26]. - The cloud business experienced strong growth, with net new and total ARR accelerating year-over-year, supported by the launch of new technologies [21][22]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The geographic revenue mix for Q1 consisted of approximately 67% from the U.S. and 33% from international markets, indicating a balanced global presence [35]. - The MSSP channel contributed over 15% of Q1 deal value, reflecting significant growth in this area compared to previous years [28][102]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on consolidating point products and enhancing customer experience through the Falcon Flex subscription model, which is driving faster adoption and increased spending [8][11]. - There is a strong emphasis on AI-driven solutions, with the introduction of Charlotte AI to enhance security operations and automate processes [19][81]. - The strategic realignment plan aims to optimize investments in key growth areas such as cloud, identity, exposure management, and next-gen SIEM [40][41]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving sequential net new ARR growth in Q2 and a reacceleration in the back half of FY 2026, driven by strong demand for the Falcon platform and Falcon Flex [34][38]. - The company anticipates a continued need for cybersecurity solutions in an increasingly complex threat environment, positioning itself as a leader in protecting AI agents and workloads [31][82]. - The share repurchase authorization of up to $1 billion reflects management's confidence in long-term growth prospects and cash flow generation capabilities [33][34]. Other Important Information - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $110.2 million, which included $39.7 million in expenses related to outages [37]. - The company expects a temporary divergence between ARR and subscription revenue due to the impact of customer choice programs [39]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Falcon Flex and its impact on sales - Management noted that Falcon Flex has significantly changed the sales approach, focusing on outcomes rather than individual modules, leading to faster adoption and increased ARR [48][52]. Question: Divergence between revenue growth and ARR growth - Management explained that the divergence is due to amortization impacts from customer choice programs, which affect revenue recognition differently than ARR [56][57]. Question: Budgeting for reflex deals - The company highlighted that discussions around budget adjustments occur during demand planning, allowing customers to replace point products and achieve better outcomes [61][64]. Question: Changes in sales compensation and market response - Management reported positive feedback from the sales force and customers, indicating a successful transition back to business following previous disruptions [68][71]. Question: Trends in the macro environment - Management emphasized strong execution and customer demand, particularly for next-gen SIEM, despite external market noise [93]. Question: Competitive positioning in the next-gen SIEM market - The company identified Splunk and QRadar as key legacy competitors being displaced, with a focus on delivering better value and performance [97][99]. Question: Momentum in the MSSP channel - Management discussed significant growth in the MSSP channel, highlighting the ease of deployment and strong demand from customers [102][103]. Question: Vision for identity management space - The company aims to deepen its capabilities in identity management, responding to customer demand for consolidated solutions that save costs [108][109].