野村东方国际 以史为鉴：思科启示录下的英伟达坐标审视 20250312 摘要 Q&A 当前 AI 基建的资本开支情况如何？市场对其未来发展有何担忧？ 目前，AI 基建的资本开支已经持续接近两年。自今年年初以来，市场开始担忧 是否存在泡沫风险，有些人将当前的 AI 投资周期与 2021 年初的互联网泡沫进 行对比。我们研究的初衷是分析思科在互联网泡沫时期从下游暴雷到业绩受到 • 思科在互联网泡沫时期通过并购迅速扩张，成为网络设备市场领导者，但 下游互联网公司业绩暴雷导致需求萎缩，最终波及思科自身业绩，股价大 幅下跌，股价高点早于业绩高点约三个季度，是需求放缓的先行指标。 • 英伟达当前面临 ASIC 解决方案兴起和 DeepSeek 大模型训练样本方案带来 的潜在竞争压力，但其在 GPU 加速计算性能和 CUDA 生态方面仍具有显著优 势，预计中短期内仍将主导 AI 算力基础设施建设。 • 本轮 AI 投资周期由大型科技公司主导，这些公司财务状况稳健，能够支撑 长期资本支出投入，与互联网泡沫时期未盈利科技公司依赖融资不同，英 伟达拥有更高稳定性的客户群体。 • 英伟达 GPU 使用寿命较短，云厂商有动力不断进行 ...

Group 1 - Cisco currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.83, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 21 brokerage firms [2] - Of the 21 recommendations, 11 are Strong Buy and 2 are Buy, accounting for 52.4% and 9.5% of all recommendations respectively [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cisco's earnings has increased by 2.8% over the past month to $3.72, reflecting growing optimism among analysts [12] Group 2 - The ABR suggests buying Cisco, but relying solely on this information may not be advisable as brokerage recommendations often lack success in guiding investors towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [4][9] - The Zacks Rank, which categorizes stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, provides a more effective indicator of a stock's price performance in the near future compared to the ABR [7][10] - The recent change in the consensus estimate and other factors have resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for Cisco, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [13]

Group 1: Tariffs Impact - Companies with software-driven hardware are less affected by tariffs, while commoditized IT hardware players are facing rising costs [2] - Networking leaders like Cisco Systems and Arista Networks can pass costs down the supply chain, giving them a competitive edge [2] - PC and server manufacturers are experiencing tighter margins and have limited ability to raise prices without losing customers [3] Group 2: Federal Spending Cuts - A slowdown in government IT budgets may adversely affect device makers more than infrastructure players [4] - Cisco has over 5% of its revenue linked to federal spending, which could lead to near-term pressure, but long-term benefits from federal tech modernization are anticipated [4] - Channel partners like CDW have notable exposure to federal spending but are currently downplaying risks [4] Group 3: CoWoS Supply Chain Issues - Recent order cuts in CoWoS by Nvidia and Amazon are reshaping supplier valuations [5] - Nvidia-linked companies such as Fabrinet, Amphenol, and Coherent may face valuation compression despite stable revenue estimates [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Cisco and Arista appear relatively insulated from tariff impacts, while Nvidia's supply chain is facing valuation challenges [6] - Federal spending concerns may pose short-term obstacles for key players, but companies with software-rich and infrastructure-driven models are better positioned to thrive [6]

Core Viewpoint - In a market characterized by high valuations, Verizon, IBM, and Cisco are identified as attractive income-generating investments due to their lower valuations and healthy dividend yields [1][2]. Group 1: Verizon - Verizon's stock reached a 13-year low of $28.25 on October 13, 2023, but has since rebounded to nearly $44 [3]. - The company doubled its annual postpaid phone net additions in 2024, driven by localized marketing, customizable plans, and growth in its distribution business with Walmart [4]. - Verizon's free cash flow rose 6% to $19.8 billion, covering its $11.2 billion in dividend payments, with a forward yield of 6.3% and a low forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [5]. Group 2: IBM - Under CEO Arvind Krishna, IBM has shifted focus towards cloud-based services and AI, spinning off its slow-growth IT infrastructure services business [6][7]. - From 2020 to 2024, IBM's revenue and EPS grew at compound annual growth rates of 3% and 1%, respectively, marking a recovery after years of decline [8]. - Analysts project a 4% growth in revenue and EPS for IBM this year, with a forward dividend yield of 2.7% and a payout ratio of 52% of its free cash flow [9]. Group 3: Cisco - Cisco faced challenges in fiscal 2021 and 2022 due to supply chain constraints but saw growth in fiscal 2023 as these issues were resolved [10][11]. - Analysts expect Cisco's revenue to rise 5% in fiscal 2025 as inventory issues are addressed, although adjusted EPS may remain flat due to integration costs from its acquisition of Splunk [12]. - Cisco's stock is valued at 17 times forward earnings, with a forward dividend yield of 2.6%, and it spent only half of its free cash flow on dividends over the past year [13].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Computer - Networking industry is expected to benefit from the increasing focus on cloud computing, network security, big data, and cloud storage, driven by the rapid adoption of AI technology [1][3] - The accelerated deployment of 5G is enhancing the Internet of Things (IoT), Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality (AR/VR) devices, and 5G smartphones, necessitating robust networking infrastructure [2][9] - The Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle is anticipated to act as a catalyst for growth in the industry [2][10] Key Trends - The demand for innovative networking products is rising, favoring major players like Cisco Systems, NETGEAR, and RADCOM [3] - The proliferation of IoT and smart connected devices, along with the growing adoption of cloud computing in network security, is driving the need for efficient network support infrastructure [7][8] - Companies are innovating in networking technologies, including network virtualization and Software-Defined Networking, to meet the demand for secure infrastructure [8] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Computer - Networking industry has outperformed the S&P 500 Composite and the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, gaining 28% over the past year compared to the sector's 12.4% and the S&P 500's 15.6% [15] - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20.12X, which is below the S&P 500's 21.53X and the sector's 24.41X [16] Company Highlights Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) - Cisco is experiencing strong demand for its AI infrastructure solutions, with orders exceeding $700 million in the first half of fiscal 2025, projected to surpass $1 billion by the end of the fiscal year [18] - The company's security business is thriving, with over 1,000 customers for its Cisco Secure Access and XDR solutions [19] - Product orders increased by 29% year over year, with Annualized Recurring Revenues (ARR) of $30.1 billion rising 22% year over year [20] NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR) - NETGEAR's revenues from the NETGEAR for Business segment increased by 14.9% year over year, driven by strong demand for ProAV managed switch products [23] - The company successfully reduced inventory by $86 million in 2024, enhancing revenue predictability [24] - Recurring services revenues surged by 25% in the latest quarter, with 556,000 recurring subscribers generating $35 million in recurring revenues [25] RADCOM Ltd. (RDCM) - RADCOM specializes in cloud-native, automated service assurance for 5G networks, with a focus on innovation and AI [27] - The company reported record revenues of $16.3 million in the last quarter, marking a 16.1% year-over-year increase [28] - For 2025, RADCOM anticipates revenue growth of 12% to 15%, with a midpoint of $69.2 million, reflecting continued momentum [29]

Industry Overview - The Zacks Computer - Networking industry is experiencing growth driven by increased focus on cloud computing, network security, big data, and cloud storage, particularly with the rise of AI technology [1] - Companies are capitalizing on the multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity, with the accelerated deployment of 5G enhancing the demand for robust networking infrastructure [1][4] - The industry is characterized by a diverse range of products, including wireless, Ethernet, and powerline solutions, catering to the evolving needs of consumers and businesses [2] Trends Influencing the Industry - Innovation in networking technologies is opening new business avenues, driven by the proliferation of smart home devices and the increasing adoption of cloud computing [3] - The rapid deployment of 5G technology is expected to boost growth prospects, necessitating substantial investments in infrastructure upgrades [4] - The upcoming Wi-Fi 7 upgrade cycle is anticipated to drive demand for advanced networking products, addressing issues related to Wi-Fi spectrum shortages [5] Economic Conditions - Global macroeconomic weakness and volatile supply-chain dynamics pose challenges for the industry, potentially affecting spending and business visibility [6] Industry Performance - The Zacks Computer - Networking industry ranks 25, placing it in the top 10% of over 246 Zacks industries, indicating bright near-term prospects [7][8] - The industry has outperformed the S&P 500 Composite and the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, gaining 28% over the past year compared to the sector's 12.4% and the S&P 500's 15.6% [9] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.12X, which is below the S&P 500's 21.53X and the sector's 24.41X [11] Company Highlights - **Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)**: Benefiting from strong demand for AI infrastructure solutions, with orders exceeding $700 million in the first half of fiscal 2025, and a growth rate of over 40% in orders [14][16] - **NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)**: Experienced a 14.9% revenue increase in the NFB segment, driven by strong demand for ProAV managed switch products, and a successful destocking plan leading to improved revenue predictability [19][20] - **RADCOM Ltd. (RDCM)**: Reported record revenues of $16.3 million, a 16.1% year-over-year increase, and provided revenue guidance for 2025 expecting growth between 12% and 15% [24][25]

Core Insights - Cisco announced networking innovations aimed at empowering service providers to deliver differentiated services and AI-connected experiences at scale [2][3] - The Agile Services Networking architecture combines high-speed routing, a unified software experience, and converged IP and optics, enabling service providers to monetize AI services [3][4] Networking Innovations - Cisco's Agile Services Networking includes new capabilities for real-time visibility into both on-network and off-network connectivity, enhancing end-to-end assurance [5][7] - Early adopters like Virgin Media O2 and Odido are leveraging these innovations to improve customer satisfaction and net promoter scores (NPS) [6][10] AI and Business Growth - The rapid pace of AI innovation presents significant opportunities for service providers to modernize infrastructure, reduce costs, and grow their businesses [4][9] - Cisco's solutions are designed to help service providers compete effectively in the AI marketplace by delivering secure and competitive AI-connected experiences [7][11] Enhanced User Experience - New features such as the ThousandEyes Connected Devices platform provide service providers with insights into last-mile network performance, allowing proactive issue mitigation [8][10] - The Provider Connectivity Assurance application enhances mobile service provider performance through real-time traffic insights and predictive demand intelligence [8][10] Revenue Growth Strategies - Cisco is introducing capabilities to its Mobility Services Platform to accelerate revenue growth for service providers, including an application and API ecosystem [11]

Group 1 - Cisco will participate in several upcoming events with the financial community, including the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference in San Francisco [1][2] - No new financial information will be disclosed at these events, indicating a focus on existing strategies and relationships rather than new financial guidance [1] - Cisco's representatives at these events include senior executives from various divisions, highlighting the company's commitment to engaging with investors and stakeholders [1][2] Group 2 - Cisco is recognized as a worldwide technology leader, focusing on revolutionizing connectivity and protection in the AI era [2] - The company has over 40 years of experience in securely connecting the world and is committed to innovation, productivity enhancement, and digital resilience [2] - Cisco aims to create a more connected and inclusive future, emphasizing its purpose-driven approach [2]

Core Insights - Cisco has received FedRAMP authorization at the Moderate Impact Level for its Cisco Meraki for Government solution, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's CISA [1][3][7] - Cisco Meraki for Government is an AI-powered cloud-managed networking platform designed specifically for the U.S. public sector, enhancing network reliability, security, and IT efficiency [2][6][7] - The FedRAMP authorization complements Cisco's existing StateRAMP certification, reinforcing its commitment to government compliance and security [3][7] Company Commitment - Cisco has a 40-year history of serving governments globally, focusing on compliance with government requirements to ensure a secure environment for public sector customers [4] - The company has seen a 33% increase in products achieving FedRAMP authorization over the past 18 months, reflecting its prioritization of government customer needs [8] - Cisco has experienced a 271% increase in global certifications in the same period, demonstrating its commitment to compliance [8] Partner Collaboration - Cisco's partners have expressed support for the FedRAMP authorization, which enhances their ability to meet the unique needs of the U.S. government [5] - Collaboration with partners like Iron Bow Technologies aims to simplify IT workflows for government agencies using Cisco Meraki for Government [6][9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment analysis approach of Michael Del Monte, highlighting his macro-value-oriented strategy and cross-industry analysis expertise [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over 5 years of experience as a buy-side equity analyst and over a decade in professional services across various industries including Oil & Gas, Oilfield Services, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and Consumer Discretionary [1]. Group 2: Investment Approach - The investment analysis approach taken by Michael is macro-value-oriented, focusing on making investment recommendations based on comprehensive cross-industry analysis [1].