Group 1 - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) is highlighted as a stock with resilience, described as "made of Teflon," indicating its ability to withstand market fluctuations [1] - The company operates in the farming sector, which is historically supported by government subsidies during tough times, benefiting sales of farm equipment [1] - Recent declines in commodity prices raise questions about their impact on Deere's sales, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the stock [1] Group 2 - Deere & Company manufactures a range of equipment including farming, turf, construction, and forestry machinery, along with supporting parts and tools [2]

Core Insights - Earnings season is beginning to slow down, providing some relief after recent market volatility, with key companies like Alibaba, Zscaler, Deer & Company, and Dell Technologies set to report this week [1] Earnings Reports - This week features earnings reports from: - Alibaba (BABA) with an expected move of 7.2% - Dell Technologies (DELL) with an expected move of 9.4% - Zscaler (ZS) with an expected move of 9.9% - Deer & Company (DE) with an expected move of 5.5% [4] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility tends to be high before earnings reports due to market uncertainty, leading to increased demand for options [2] - After earnings announcements, implied volatility typically decreases to normal levels [2] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades: - Bearish traders may consider selling bear call spreads outside the expected range - Bullish traders might sell bull put spreads or look at naked puts for higher risk tolerance [4] - Neutral traders can explore iron condors, ensuring short strikes remain outside the expected range [5] Stock Screening - A stock screener can identify stocks with high implied volatility, using filters such as: - Total call volume greater than 5,000 - Market cap greater than 40 billion - IV Rank greater than 40% [6][7] Previous Earnings Performance - Last week's earnings move for TCOM was +2.2%, compared to an expected move of 6.2% [9]

Market Overview - The market dynamics have shifted, with algorithmic trading dominating, leading to unpredictable selling patterns that disregard traditional holiday trends [2][3] - Investors are facing a lack of reliable data due to the government shutdown, impacting decision-making [3] Economic Indicators - The delayed September retail sales report is anticipated to be weak, which could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts [3] - A soft retail sales report could lead to rising bond prices and falling yields, unless countered by a significant increase in the producer price index [4] - Housing turnover is at its lowest in 40 years, negatively affecting various industries reliant on housing sales [4] Company Insights Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) - Deere is viewed positively due to government support for farmers during tough times, which can lead to increased sales of farm equipment [9] - The company is expected to be resilient, but investors are advised to wait for the quarterly results before making purchases [9] Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) - Burlington is considered the weakest among its peers in the off-price retail sector, with recent performance lagging behind competitors [10] - The company reported a 2.5% comparable sales growth in the first half, with a notable difference in growth rates between the first and second quarters [10][11] - Management's cautious guidance for the second half of the year reflects concerns over weather-related sales impacts, particularly in outerwear [11][13] - The stock trades at a higher valuation compared to its peers, with a PEG ratio of 1.4, and recent buyback activity has been limited [11][12]

Economic Data Releases - The delayed September retail sales report will be released just before Black Friday, indicating consumer spending trends leading into the holiday season [2][7] - Other economic data to be released includes weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, durable-goods orders, and the Producer Price Index for September, which will provide insights into inflation [2][7] Earnings Reports - Key companies reporting earnings this week include John Deere, Alibaba, Applied Digital, Dell Technologies, and others, with significant attention on their performance amid rising costs and market conditions [4][5][6] - Workday is expected to report quarterly earnings for the first time since Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company, indicating potential shifts in company strategy or performance [5] Market Activity - Stock markets will close early on Friday at 1 p.m. ET, and bond markets will close at 2 p.m. ET due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting trading volumes and market dynamics [2][11] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on December 10 may be influenced by the delayed economic data, complicating the outlook for monetary policy [7]

Core Insights - Investors will have a break next week due to the market closure on November 27 for Thanksgiving, allowing time for assessment and reflection after a challenging week for Wall Street [2] - Despite the end of the U.S. government shutdown, some key economic reports are still being canceled due to insufficient survey data, impacting market expectations [3] Earnings Reports - Several companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, including Alibaba Group (BABA), Dell (DELL), Deere & Company (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) [4] - Specific earnings highlights include: - Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Zoom Communications (ZM), Symbotic (SYM) [5] - Tuesday: Alibaba, Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies, Best Buy (BBY), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP (HPQ), DICK'S Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker (SJM), and NIO (NIO) [5] - Wednesday: Deere, Li Auto (LI) [5] - Thursday: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) [6] - Friday: Frontline Plc (FRO), Buckle, Inc. (BKE) [6]

Core Insights - The Q3 earnings season for S&P 500 companies is showing positive results, with 95% of companies having reported by November 21, and an expected 13.4% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Analysts had initially expected a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for Q3 as of September 30, indicating a significant upward revision in expectations [3] - If the anticipated 13.4% growth holds, it represents an acceleration from the 12% growth rate reported in Q2 of this year [2] Group 2: Upcoming Reports - Recent retail earnings reports from Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target will be followed by upcoming reports from Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Burlington Stores, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior [4] - Additional earnings reports from tech and other sectors are expected from companies such as Zoom, Dell, Workday, HP Inc., Deere, and Pony AI [5]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Company are leading players in the heavy machinery sector, with Caterpillar focusing on construction and mining, while Deere specializes in agriculture and forestry [1] - Caterpillar's market capitalization is approximately $257 billion, while Deere's is around $129 billion, indicating their significant roles in industrial and agricultural cycles [2] Caterpillar Overview - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar achieved record revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase year-over-year, primarily due to a 10% rise in sales volume [2][8] - The company anticipates modest revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues between $42 billion and $72 billion, and adjusted operating margins expected between 10% and 22% [3] - Caterpillar is poised to benefit from the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is expected to drive demand for its construction equipment [4] - The company is also experiencing strong demand for reciprocating engines for data centers, planning to double output through a multi-year capital investment [5] - Caterpillar aims to increase service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion by 2026, capitalizing on high-margin aftermarket parts and services [6] Deere Overview - Deere has faced eight consecutive quarters of revenue declines, with lower earnings attributed to reduced volumes in agriculture and construction sectors [7] - The company expects a decline in sales volumes for 2025, with a projected net income between $4.75 billion and $5.25 billion, reflecting a 29.6% decrease from the previous year [9] - Despite current challenges, long-term demand for agricultural equipment is expected to rise due to global food demand and the need to replace aging machinery [11][12] Financial Estimates Comparison - Caterpillar's 2025 sales estimate is $66.11 billion, indicating a 2% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 16% [13] - Deere's 2025 sales estimate is $38.31 billion, reflecting a 14.4% year-over-year decline, with earnings per share expected to fall by 27.7% [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Caterpillar's stock has increased by 50.5%, compared to Deere's 12.4% gain [15] - Caterpillar trades at a forward earnings multiple of 25.51X, while Deere's multiple is 23.49X [16] - Caterpillar's return on equity stands at 47.16%, significantly higher than Deere's 21.97%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [19] Investment Outlook - Caterpillar shows stronger momentum with rising volumes and renewed revenue growth, making it a more favorable investment compared to Deere, which faces near-term pressures [20][21]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on November 26, with earnings estimates showing a 12.9% decline year-over-year, while revenue estimates indicate a 7.7% increase [1][5] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's earnings has decreased by 0.3% over the past 60 days to $3.96 per share, reflecting a downward trend [1][2] - The consensus estimate for revenues is projected at $9.99 billion, which represents a year-over-year increase of 7.7% [1] Earnings Surprise History - Deere has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.7% [2][3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Deere, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Segment Performance Expectations - The Production & Precision Agriculture segment is expected to generate revenues of $4.27 billion, a decrease of 0.8% year-over-year, with an operating profit of $714 million, up 8.6% from the previous year [9] - The Small Agriculture & Turf segment's revenues are estimated at $2.11 billion, reflecting an 8.6% decline, with an operating profit of $124 million, down 46.9% year-over-year [10] - The Construction & Forestry segment is projected to have sales of $3.29 billion, indicating a 23.7% increase, but with an operating profit expected to decline by 2.7% to $319 million [11] - The Financial Services segment's revenues are estimated at $1.55 billion, a 2% increase, with an operating profit projected at $218 million, down from $231 million in the prior year [12] Market Performance - Deere's stock has increased by 10.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 5.8% [13] Industry Context - Deere is facing challenges due to weak farmer spending amid low commodity prices, which is expected to impact its fiscal fourth-quarter performance [7] - High production and administrative expenses are likely to affect the company's margins, although favorable price realization may mitigate some of these challenges [8]

Each fall across America's heartland, countless fields are toiled by farmers and their tractors. Mike and Betsy Roland own West Bureau Farms in central Illinois, one of at least 18 states where farmers this year are testing state-of-the-art AI tractor technology. A rural response perhaps to the self-driving cars increasingly spotted in major cities.Here, Mike and Betsy start their high-tech tractor from an iPhone. >> Oh my gosh. and save hours of work.The tech, courtesy of agriculture giant John Deere, who' ...

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company is viewed positively by Jim Cramer, who emphasizes the company's resilience and the consistent demand for its products due to government support for farmers [1] Company Overview - Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) manufactures and distributes a range of equipment including agricultural, turf, construction, and forestry machinery [1] - The product lineup includes tractors, harvesters, mowers, loaders, and road-building machinery [1] Financial Performance - Despite a significant increase in stock price over the past 12 months, the company's financial results have not been particularly strong [1] - The company's performance has consistently exceeded market expectations, even when absolute numbers have been poor [1] Market Dynamics - Deere's business is heavily influenced by the agriculture market, which is subject to external factors beyond the company's control [1]