Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) is a world leader in providing advanced products, technology and services for customers whose work is revolutionizing agriculture and construction — those who cultivate, harvest, transform, enrich and build upon the land to meet the world's increasing need for food, fuel, shelter and infrastructure. For more information, visit www.JohnDeere.com. SOURCE John Deere Company The earnings call can be accessed at www.JohnDeere.com/earnings. The recorded call will be available on the Dee ...

Company Performance - Deere (DE) closed at $515.17, reflecting a +1.87% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.78% [1] - Over the past month, Deere's shares declined by 1.64%, underperforming the Industrial Products sector, which gained 8.59%, and the S&P 500, which gained 5.88% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Deere's earnings report is scheduled for August 14, 2025, with expected earnings of $4.62 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 26.55% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $10.26 billion, representing a 9.92% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - The full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $18.84 per share and revenue of $38.05 billion, reflecting year-over-year declines of -26.46% and -14.99%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Deere may indicate short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable business outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Deere's current Forward P/E ratio is 26.84, compared to the industry average of 20.73, indicating that Deere is trading at a premium [6] - The PEG ratio for Deere stands at 3.21, aligning with the average PEG ratio of the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry [7] Industry Context - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry is part of the Industrial Products sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 200, placing it in the bottom 20% of over 250 industries [8] - Historical data shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - Deere's stock closed at $499.14, reflecting a -1.69% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.54% [1] - The stock has decreased by 3.29% over the past month, while the Industrial Products sector gained 5.35% and the S&P 500 increased by 4.2% [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with expected EPS of $4.62, representing a 26.55% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected at $10.26 billion, indicating a 9.92% decrease compared to the equivalent quarter last year [2] - Full-year estimates predict earnings of $18.84 per share and revenue of $38.05 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of -26.46% and -14.99%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent modifications to analyst estimates are crucial as they indicate changing business trends, with positive revisions suggesting confidence in performance [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Deere at 3 (Hold), with a recent upward shift of 0.08% in the EPS estimate [6] Valuation Metrics - Deere's Forward P/E ratio stands at 26.95, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 20.49 [7] - The PEG ratio is currently at 3.22, aligning with the average PEG ratio of the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry [7] Industry Context - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry is part of the Industrial Products sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 203, placing it in the bottom 18% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the performance potential of industry groups, indicating that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Deere's stock increased by 1.94% to $519.20, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.28% [1] - Over the past month, Deere's shares declined by 2.21%, underperforming the Industrial Products sector's gain of 5.67% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.37% [1] Group 2: Earnings Projections - Deere is projected to report earnings of $4.6 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 26.87% [2] - Revenue is expected to be $10.21 billion, indicating a 10.32% drop compared to the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Fiscal Year Estimates - For the fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $18.82 per share and revenue at $38.05 billion, representing declines of 26.54% and 14.99% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates may indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [3] Group 4: Zacks Rank and Valuation - Deere currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining stagnant over the past month [5] - The Forward P/E ratio for Deere is 27.06, which is higher than the industry average of 21.81, indicating that Deere is trading at a premium [6] Group 5: PEG Ratio and Industry Ranking - Deere has a PEG ratio of 3.23, which is in line with the average PEG ratio of the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry [7] - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry is ranked 174 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 30% of over 250 industries [7][8]

Core Insights - The autonomous vehicle (AV) market is projected to reach a potential size of $1.2 trillion by 2040, covering various sectors including automotive, trucking, logistics, agriculture, and mining [1][7] - Currently, commercial AV deployment is scaling, with 7 cities globally offering commercial robotaxi services and an additional 20 cities set to launch soon [1][7] - The report encompasses companies with a combined market capitalization of approximately $10 trillion, highlighting their strategies in AV technology development and market share competition [1][3] Market Overview - The AV market is expected to grow from $137 billion in 2024 to $1.2 trillion by 2040, with significant compound annual growth rates (CAGR) across various sectors [7] - The automotive sector alone is anticipated to reach $686.89 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 14.6% from $78.08 billion in 2024 [10] - The trucking sector is projected to grow to $353.52 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 14.5% [10] Key Companies and Their Roles - Major players in the OEM sector include companies like Caterpillar, Deere, Daimler Truck, and Toyota, all of which are investing in AV technologies and partnerships [4][9] - Chinese companies such as Xiaomi and XPeng are also significant, with Xiaomi focusing on LiDAR technology and XPeng developing the XNGP system for nationwide deployment [8][10] - In the software domain, companies like Google (Waymo) and Baidu (Apollo Go) are leading in AV commercialization, with Waymo planning to provide 250,000 paid rides weekly by 2025 [8][10] Technology and Innovation - The semiconductor sector plays a crucial role in AV development, providing essential capabilities such as AI training and sensor processing [11] - Key semiconductor companies include Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Mobileye, with Nvidia expected to generate $1.7 billion in automotive revenue by 2025 [11] - LiDAR technology is dominated by companies like Hesai and RoboSense, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [8][11] Future Projections - By 2030, it is estimated that 10% of Deere's revenue will come from recurring sources related to AV solutions in agriculture and construction [9] - Daimler Truck's Torc system is expected to contribute $1.5 billion in profit by 2035, representing 30% of its adjusted EBIT in 2024 [9] - Horizon Robotics anticipates that 97% of its revenue will come from AV-related solutions by 2024, with significant market share growth expected by 2030 [9][10]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Deere's stock closed at $520.31, with a daily increase of +2.35%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.48% [1] - Over the last month, Deere's shares decreased by 0.93%, lagging behind the Industrial Products sector's gain of 6.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.13% [1] Group 2: Earnings Projections - The upcoming earnings release is projected to show earnings per share (EPS) of $4.6, reflecting a 26.87% decrease from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $10.21 billion, indicating a 10.32% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $18.82 per share and revenue at $38.05 billion, representing changes of -26.54% and -14.99% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Deere indicate changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks Deere at 3 (Hold) [6] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 0.02% in the past month [6] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Deere is trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 27.01, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 21.62 [7] - The PEG ratio for Deere is 3.23, aligning with the average PEG ratio of the Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry [7] Group 5: Industry Context - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry is part of the Industrial Products sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 171, placing it in the bottom 31% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - Deere & Company has launched its H Series Forestry machines, featuring industry-first innovations such as enhanced hydraulic systems and advanced automation, aimed at improving productivity, fuel savings, and jobsite performance [1][7] Product Innovations - The H Series includes the 1270H and 1470H Harvesters and 2010H and 2510H Forwarders, which offer improved engine power, faster cycle times, and enhanced cutting efficiency compared to the G Series [2] - The advanced hydraulic systems in the H Series feature three dedicated pumps, providing greater power for various operations, crucial for challenging forestry environments [2] - Deere has also updated its backhoe lineup with an industry-first rear camera system and a redesigned cab, enhancing its Construction & Forestry segment, which contributes nearly 29% to its equipment revenues [3] Competitive Landscape - CNH Industrial has unveiled a strategic business plan focusing on AI capabilities to enhance user experience and plans to invest in new product launches and digital technologies [4] - Komatsu's forestry machinery emphasizes durability and productivity, utilizing ICT to optimize operations and address labor shortages [5] Financial Performance - Deere's shares have increased by 21.2% this year, outperforming the industry growth of 19.7% and the S&P 500's 4.4% [6] - The current forward 12-month P/E ratio for Deere is 24.49X, higher than the industry average of 22.95X, indicating that the stock may not be a compelling value proposition [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's fiscal 2025 earnings is $18.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 26.54%, while the 2026 estimate suggests a growth of 17.13% [9][10]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) and CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) are leading global players in agricultural machinery, with Deere holding the top position [1] - Both companies are significantly impacted by ongoing weaknesses in agricultural and construction markets, raising questions about investment choices [2] Company Overview - Deere has a market capitalization of $139 billion and specializes in agricultural, forestry, and turf equipment, with a strong presence in precision farming technology [3] - CNH Industrial has a market capitalization of approximately $16 billion and operates well-known agricultural equipment brands such as New Holland and Case IH [8] Financial Performance - Both DE and CNH have faced revenue declines for seven consecutive quarters, with DE's earnings slipping in the last six quarters due to lower volumes in agriculture and construction [4][9] - DE anticipates a 30% decline in large agriculture equipment sales in fiscal 2025, while CNH expects total net sales to decline between 11% and 19% compared to 2024 [5][10] Market Outlook - The agricultural equipment market in the U.S. and Canada is projected to decline by 10-15% for small equipment, while European markets are expected to decline approximately 5% [5] - Construction equipment demand is also under pressure, with DE expecting a 10% drop in U.S. and Canadian construction equipment sales [6] Innovation and Growth Prospects - Both companies are ramping up innovation capabilities, with DE focusing on advanced technologies and geographic expansion to drive long-term growth [7][11] - CNH is making strategic strides in automation and digital integration, with 80% of its precision components developed internally in 2024 [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DE's fiscal 2025 earnings is $18.82 per share, indicating a year-over-year fall of 26.54% [13] - CNH's 2025 earnings estimate is 62 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 41% [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, DE stock has gained 21.2%, outperforming the Zacks manufacturing - farm equipment industry's growth of 19.7%, while CNH has lagged at 15% [16] - DE is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 24.49X, while CNH is at 17.71X, with CNH trading at a discount to industry averages [18] Investment Considerations - Both companies face near-term headwinds, but are fundamentally tied to long-term megatrends such as rising food demand and advancements in agricultural technology [20] - From a valuation standpoint, CNH appears more attractive currently, with a Value Score of B compared to DE's D [21]

Core Insights - Durable goods orders increased by 16.5%, significantly surpassing the forecast of 8.5% and reversing a previous decline of 6.5% in April [1][3] - The increase was primarily driven by transportation equipment, with orders excluding transportation rising by 0.5%, exceeding expectations for flat orders [2][3] - Durable goods serve as a leading economic indicator, reflecting business investment willingness and consumer confidence [3] Company Insights - **Honeywell International (HON)**: The company plans a tax-free spin-off of its aerospace business, creating two entities: Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation, focusing on AI and robotics. The spin-off is expected to unlock shareholder value, although the stock appears overvalued currently [5][6][7] - **Deere & Company (DE)**: The stock has risen over 19% in 2025 despite expectations of lower demand in North America due to softer commodity prices. The company is closely tied to agricultural capital spending, and favorable trade announcements could boost future capital expenditures [8][9][10] - **Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)**: While not a traditional durable goods company, Microsoft's significant investment in AI data centers is driving demand for durable goods like hardware and cooling systems. The company is sensitive to economic trends, and its strong market position allows it to command a premium [12][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial sector, particularly represented by Deere & Company, is experiencing significant outperformance in 2025, contrasting with the technology sector's focus on AI innovation [1][2]. Industry Performance - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) has increased nearly 10% year-to-date, outperforming the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), which has risen 6.3% [2]. - Deere & Company has surged over 20% year-to-date and is trading near a key breakout level [2]. Institutional Confidence - Institutional inflows into Deere have totaled nearly $14 billion over the past 12 months, with $9 billion flowing in during the last two quarters alone, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term prospects [3]. - The stock has seen only $7.7 billion in outflows during the same period, further emphasizing institutional support [3]. Analyst Ratings - Deere currently holds a consensus Hold rating from 21 analysts, suggesting it is fairly valued at current levels [4]. - The average price target for Deere aligns closely with its current price, indicating that existing investors may want to maintain their positions [4]. Dividend Information - Deere offers a dividend yield of 1.26%, with a solid history of increasing dividends over the past four years, making it appealing to conservative investors [6]. - The stable dividend can help mitigate short-term volatility while enhancing long-term returns amid interest rate uncertainties [6]. Stock Valuation - Deere's current P/E ratio is just under 25, which is slightly elevated compared to the broader industrial sector [7]. - The forward P/E ratio is around 23, placing it in a middle ground between value and high-growth stocks [8]. Earnings Performance - In fiscal Q2 2025, Deere reported earnings of $6.64 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.72 [8]. - Revenue for the quarter was $11.17 billion, down nearly 18% year-over-year but above the consensus of $10.80 billion, showcasing operational resilience [9]. Technical Analysis - Technically, Deere is forming a bullish flag-like pattern near its 52-week high, with a potential breakout above the $532 level that could lead to a multi-week advance [10]. - The stock is outperforming the broader industrial sector, attracting attention from technical traders and momentum-focused funds [11]. Overall Assessment - Deere may not have the speculative appeal of tech stocks but demonstrates strong institutional backing, solid execution, and a consistent technical structure [13]. - While not an outright bargain, Deere is not overpriced, and a breakout above $532 could present a high-probability opportunity for upside continuation [14].