Group 1 - Artisan Value Fund reported a continued equity market rally in Q3 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, rising AI investment, and favorable US fiscal policies, resulting in fund returns of 0.83%, 0.91%, and 0.90% for its Investor, Advisor, and Institutional Classes respectively, compared to a 5.33% return for the Russell 1000 Value Index [1] - Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) experienced a one-month return of 24.98% and a 52-week gain of 81.38%, with a closing stock price of $137.52 and a market capitalization of $30.27 billion as of December 29, 2025 [2] - Artisan Value Fund exited its position in Dollar General Corporation, citing concerns about the sustainability of its business turnaround amid tough competition and a weak lower-income consumer market [3] Group 2 - Dollar General Corporation was held by 54 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, a slight decrease from 55 in the previous quarter, indicating a stable interest among hedge funds [4] - Despite recognizing Dollar General's potential, the company believes that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and lower downside risk, suggesting a shift in investment focus [4]

Group 1 - As of December 29, 2025, two stocks in the consumer staples sector are showing signs of being overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key momentum indicator, with values above 70 indicating that a stock may be overbought [2] Group 2 - Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG) has an RSI value of 75.3, indicating overbought conditions, and its stock price increased by 1.8% to close at $137.84 [5] - The stock of Dollar General has gained approximately 26% over the past month and reached a 52-week high of $138.46 [5] - Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (NASDAQ:JVA) has an RSI value of 78.3, also indicating overbought conditions, with shares rising by 12% to close at $4.12 [5] - Coffee Holding's stock has increased around 14% over the past five days and has a 52-week high of $9.93 [5]

Core Insights - Two stocks in the consumer staples sector are showing signs of being overbought, which may concern momentum-focused investors [1] Group 1: Dollar General Corp - Dollar General's stock has gained approximately 26% over the past month, reaching a 52-week high of $138.46 [5] - The company's RSI value is reported at 75.3, indicating it is overbought [5] - The stock closed at $137.84 after a 1.8% increase on the last trading day [5] Group 2: Coffee Holding Co., Inc. - Coffee Holding's stock increased by around 14% over the past five days, with a 52-week high of $9.93 [5] - The company's RSI value stands at 78.3, also indicating it is overbought [5] - The stock closed at $4.12 after a 12% rise on the last trading day [5]

Core Insights - American consumers demonstrated resilience by actively participating in shopping during Super Saturday and Christmas Eve, despite challenges from a slowing labor market and rising prices [1] Consumer Behavior - The engagement of consumers during key shopping days indicates a strong willingness to spend, which may suggest underlying confidence in the economy [1] - The performance of retail sales during this period could provide insights into consumer sentiment and spending patterns moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ali's Bargain Outlet has seen a rise in stock price following an upgrade from Loop Capital, which has increased its price target from $130 to $135 and upgraded the stock rating from hold to buy, anticipating improved comparable sales through 2026 [5][19]. Company Overview - Ali's Bargain Outlet operates as a wholesale membership retailer similar to Costco, focusing on discounted or overstocked general merchandise, including name-brand items [3][4]. - The company has expanded significantly, now operating over 630 stores across 34 states, and is often compared to TJ Maxx in the general merchandise sector [4]. Market Position and Competition - The upgrade from Loop Capital comes at a time when one of Ali's main competitors, Big Lots, is liquidating, which could benefit Ali's by reducing competition in the broadline retail space [5][6]. - Ali's is making strides into consumables, positioning itself alongside companies like Dollar General and Five Below, which could drive more traffic and improve sales [6][10]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Ali's stock has been trending down, similar to Costco, despite consistent topline sales growth of approximately 12.5% year-over-year and an EBITDA growth of 11.4% last year, with an estimated growth of 15% next year [11][12]. - The current earnings multiple for Ali's is 28 times for this year and 24 times for next year, trading at a discount to its five-year average, indicating potential for a trend reversal [10][12]. Strategic Outlook - The shift towards consumables may initially impact margins but could lead to increased customer traffic and repeat purchases, enhancing overall sales volume [18]. - Ali's net income margins were around 8.9% of sales last year, indicating a more profitable operation compared to Costco, although it lacks the same scale [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - VINCI SA has conducted share buybacks from December 15 to December 19, 2025, in accordance with the authorization granted by its General Meeting on April 17, 2025, and relevant regulations [2]. Group 1: Share Buyback Transactions - The total number of shares repurchased during the specified period is 151,680 shares [2]. - The average purchase price of the shares across the transactions is approximately €119.9899 [2]. - The daily breakdown of transactions shows varying volumes and average prices, with the highest daily volume recorded on December 16, 2025, at 28,185 shares [2]. Group 2: Daily Transaction Details - On December 15, 2025, VINCI repurchased a total of 22,789 shares across three markets, with average prices ranging from €119.9578 to €120.0008 [2]. - On December 16, 2025, a total of 45,726 shares were repurchased, with average prices between €120.2072 and €120.3313 [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the company bought back 46,219 shares, with average prices from €119.7662 to €119.8334 [2]. - On December 18, 2025, 18,000 shares were repurchased, with average prices between €119.8813 and €119.9238 [2]. - On December 19, 2025, a total of 18,946 shares were repurchased, with average prices ranging from €119.7149 to €119.9147 [2].

18 December 2025 U.S. Consumer Strategy & Quantitative Research U.S. Consumer Strategy; have we reached capitulation yet & should we prepare for a sector rotation? Webinar Transcript Alexia Howard +1 917 344 8453 alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo +1 917 344 8475 danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com Zhihan Ma, CFA +1 917 344 8303 zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Nadine Sarwat, CFA +44 20 7676 6849 nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman +1 917 344 8457 aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Cinnie Lin +1 917 ...

Core Insights - Retail stocks are sensitive to economic shifts, yet major retailers like TJX Companies, Walmart, and Dollar General have shown resilience across various economic cycles [1][7] Group 1: Company Performance - TJX has outperformed the S&P 500 for the last two years and has delivered consistent gains for over 15 years, maintaining its position as a leader in off-price apparel and home goods [3][5] - Walmart, the world's largest retailer by revenue, has seen its stock price rise significantly from $58.52 to $116.70 following a stock split, and is expanding into AI shopping through a partnership with OpenAI [4][5] - Dollar General's stock has rebounded by 75% in 2025 after a 70% decline in the previous two years, with plans to open 450 new locations in 2026 [6][5] Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors with $500 available for investment may consider buying stocks from TJX, Walmart, or Dollar General, as all three companies have demonstrated adaptability to changing consumer spending patterns [1][7]

Group 1 - Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) is perceived as a strong player in the discount retail sector, benefiting from a cash-strapped consumer base and countercyclical business model [1][2] - The company has successfully reduced its direct imports from China to less than 70% and indirect imports to less than 40%, although it still faces challenges from tariffs [1] - Dollar General's stock has increased over 50% year to date, indicating strong performance despite previous execution issues and rising competition [2] Group 2 - The company is making progress in addressing operational challenges, including store standards, supply-chain execution, and labor efficiency [2] - With inflation stabilizing, there are signs of increased customer activity, as basket sizes and units are beginning to rise again [2] - The potential for Dollar General to benefit from trade-down business during economic downturns positions it favorably in the current market environment [2]

Core Insights - The stock market is at a critical juncture with the S&P 500 near an all-time high, but increasing expectations of a pullback due to signs of economic weakness and declining consumer sentiment [1] Company Summaries Micron Technology - Micron has emerged as a significant player in the AI sector, with its latest earnings report exceeding expectations [4] - Revenue surged by 57% to $13.6 billion, with cloud memory revenue doubling to $5.3 billion, driven by high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips [5] - Operating margin increased from 25% to 45%, and adjusted earnings per share rose from $1.79 to $4.78 [6] - EPS estimates for fiscal 2026 increased from $18.10 to $31.88, indicating a low valuation with the stock trading at less than 9 times forward earnings [7] - The stock's recent performance suggests potential for further growth despite reaching an all-time high [8] Dollar General - Dollar General is benefiting from a shift in consumer behavior towards cheaper goods due to persistent inflation and stagnant job growth [10]