美联储米兰：住房市场对经济的影响比股市更大。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Housing Market - Pending home sales increased by 4% month-over-month, significantly surpassing the expected 0.2% increase, marking the largest rise since April [2][3] - Last month's pending home sales were revised from negative 0.4% to negative 0.3%, indicating a slight improvement [3] - Lower mortgage rates are encouraging buyers to enter the market, particularly in the Midwest, while the Northeast remains weak [3][4] Market Dynamics - Inventory levels for existing homes are rising, but prices have not seen aggressive cuts yet, suggesting a mixed outlook for the housing market [7] - If mortgage rates drop to the low fives or high fours, housing prices may rebound, especially with potential aggressive rate cuts anticipated next year [9] - The housing market is experiencing a rolling recession, with varying performance across regions, particularly weakness in the Southeast [10] Economic Indicators - A potential government shutdown could delay key economic data releases, including the BLS report, making the upcoming ADP report more significant [12][15] - The ADP report is expected to provide insights into labor market trends, especially in light of the volatility in the BLS report [15] Oil Market - Oil prices have retreated to around $63 per barrel after reaching two-month highs, influenced by supply concerns and OPEC's potential production increase [16][19] - An increase in the Baker Hughes rig count and reports of OPEC considering a production quota hike are contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [17][18] - Geopolitical risks remain a key factor that could influence oil prices positively in the near future [20]

Millennials accounted for roughly half of 2024 mortgage applications across the 50 largest U.S. metros, and they led even in the priciest tech hubs, underscoring their role as the market’s most active buyer cohort despite affordability headwinds, according to new Realtor.com data. Fortune’s recent coverage shows many younger buyers are “buying now, praying later,” leaning on adjusted-rate mortgages (ARMs) or refinancing—an approach experts warn could become a financial “ticking time bomb” if rates don’t f ...

The Federal Reserve, as we've mentioned many times this morning, is set to announce a decision on interest rates that is coming at 2 PM Eastern time. So, not that far away. Let's bring in two economists with different expectations on this.Joining us right now is Veronica Clark. She's city economist. She's expecting five consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting today.And then Mark Vitner, who is Pedmont Crescent Capital Chief Economist, says that the Fed might be better served by cutting in just two of the n ...

It's Fed week and the battle is heating up. Today, the Senate votes on President Trump's pick for the Federal Reserve Board, Steven Myron. If confirmed, he could be in his seat by tomorrow's meeting just as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates.Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Brian Brenberg along with my co-hosts Lou Bassin, Lydia Who, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for the hour, making money host Charles Payne. Welcome one and all.All right, President Trump writing on True Social that Fed Chairman Je ...

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin stated that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is "too high" and that a 50 basis point rate cut is feasible due to an inverted yield curve [1] - Sumerlin emphasized that the housing market is the weakest part of the U.S. economy [1] - He does not believe there is an issue with the size of the Federal Reserve's staff, but rather that the "setup is completely wrong" [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin mentioned that the problem lies in "redundancy" within the Federal Reserve [2] - He is noted to have been a former official during the George W. Bush administration and is reportedly being considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $483.5 million, a 19.8% year-over-year decrease driven by a 20.1% decline in home closings, slightly offset by a 0.4% increase in average sales price (ASP) to $365,446 [11][12] - Adjusted gross margin was 25.5%, up from 23.6% in the prior quarter, but down from 27% in the same period last year [12][13] - Pretax net income margin was 8.7%, with earnings per share at $1.36 [7][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 1,323 homes in Q2 2025, with a significant increase in wholesale closings, which accounted for 17.9% of total closings compared to 7.1% last year [11][12] - The cancellation rate increased to 32.7% from 22.2% in the same period last year, influenced by a slower sales pace [15][60] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Q2 with 146 active communities, a 14% increase year-over-year [7] - Top markets by closings per community included Atlanta (6.8), Nashville (5.4), Wilmington (5.3), Richmond (4.7), and Charlotte (4.5) [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on maintaining profitability through balanced financing incentives while raising prices in higher-performing communities [6] - There is a commitment to improving operating efficiency and optimizing advertising investments [6][12] - The company plans to moderate starts in the coming quarters to align with current sales trends [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for the housing market, driven by strong demographic trends and a structural shortage of homes [5][6] - The company is limiting guidance to Q3 2025 due to market uncertainties, expecting to close between 1,100 and 1,300 homes [21][22] - Management noted recent trends in June and July showed improvement in sales, attributed to a better rate environment and effective sales initiatives [20][29] Other Important Information - The company ended Q2 with $1.7 billion in debt, a debt to capital ratio of 45.8%, and total liquidity of $322.6 million [17][18] - The company repurchased 367,568 shares for $20.6 million during the quarter [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the minimum absorption pace for maintaining gross margin? - Management indicated that they analyze absorption pace community by community and are currently incentivizing older inventory to improve sales pace [24][25] Question: What are the encouraging trends seen in late June and July? - Management noted that both a better rate environment and effective follow-up on digital leads contributed to improved sales trends [27][29] Question: How do you expect the share repurchase trend to continue? - Management stated that while share repurchases are on the table, the focus remains on reducing overall leverage [38] Question: What is the expected trend for finished lot sales moving forward? - Management indicated that finished lot sales are unpredictable and will be evaluated on a community-by-community basis [58] Question: What impacted the high cancellation rate in the current quarter? - Management explained that a large wholesale contract cancellation contributed to the elevated cancellation rate, which would have been more normalized without it [61] Question: How are incentives as a percentage of ASP trending compared to last year? - Management noted that incentives are slightly higher than last year, by about 50 to 100 basis points [64] Question: What is the outlook for community count for the rest of the year? - Management expects community count to increase in 2026, with a focus on timing and capital spending to open new communities [68]

Core Insights - PulteGroup, Inc. reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.03 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.00, while revenue was $4.40 billion, slightly below expectations of $4.41 billion [1][2] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in net new orders, falling to 7,083 homes from 7,649 in the prior-year quarter, with the dollar value of new orders decreasing to $3.9 billion from $4.4 billion [2] - PulteGroup ended the quarter with a backlog of 10,779 homes valued at $6.8 billion [2] Management Commentary - CEO Ryan Marshall highlighted that disciplined business practices are yielding strong results in a competitive housing environment and noted improving consumer activity due to recent interest rate pullbacks [2] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, PulteGroup shares fell 1.4% to trade at $119.52 [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $125 to $135 [5] - RBC Capital analyst Mike Dahl maintained a Sector Perform rating and increased the price target from $109 to $112 [5] - JP Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut kept an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $121 to $123 [5] - Raymond James analyst Buck Horne reiterated an Outperform rating and boosted the price target from $115 to $140 [5]

Core Viewpoint - KB Home's recent earnings report showed a mixed performance with earnings and revenues beating estimates but declining year-over-year, reflecting challenges in the housing market due to high mortgage rates and affordability concerns [2][3][5]. Earnings & Revenue Discussion - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 fiscal 2025 were $1.5, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45 by 3.5%, but down from $2.15 in the same quarter last year [5]. - Total revenues reached $1.53 billion, surpassing the consensus mark of $1.495 billion by 2.3%, yet decreased by 10.5% year-over-year [5]. Segmental Details - Homebuilding segment revenues were $1.525 billion, a decline of 10.4% from $1.702 billion in the prior year, with homes delivered dropping 11% to 3,120 units [6]. - The average selling price (ASP) increased by 1.2% year-over-year to $488,700 [6]. - Net orders fell by 13% to 3,460 units, with the value of net orders decreasing to $1.611 billion from $2.032 billion a year ago [7]. Financial Position - As of May 31, 2025, KB Home had cash and cash equivalents of $308.9 million, down from $598 million at the end of fiscal 2024, with total liquidity of $1.19 billion [12]. - The debt-to-capital ratio increased to 32.2 from 29.4 at the end of fiscal 2024 [12]. Guidance and Outlook - KB Home lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance, now expecting housing revenues between $6.30 billion and $6.5 billion, down from a previous range of $6.6 billion to $7 billion [14]. - The expected housing gross margin is now between 19% and 19.4%, compared to the prior range of 19.2% to 20% [15]. - The company anticipates SG&A expenses as a percentage of housing revenues to be in the range of 10.2% to 10.6% [16]. Market Performance - KB Home's stock has increased by approximately 11.2% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1]. - The consensus estimate for KB Home has shifted downward by 18% since the earnings release, indicating a negative sentiment among investors [17].

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is lagging due to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's refusal to lower interest rates, and there is a call for the Fed to take action to reduce rates by three percentage points [1] Group 1 - The current state of the housing market is directly linked to the high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a suggestion that lowering interest rates could stimulate the housing market and improve overall economic conditions [1]