Long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational, buy-and-hold perspective.Quipus Capital does not focus on market-driven dynamics and future price action. Instead, our articles focus on operational aspects, understanding the long-term earnings power of companies, the competitive dynamics of the industries where they participate, and buying companies that we would like to hold independently of how the price moves in the future. Most QC calls will be holds, and that is by design. Only a very sm ...

Group 1 - The core investment strategy focuses on long-only investment, evaluating companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective, rather than market-driven dynamics [1] - The articles emphasize understanding the long-term earnings power of companies and the competitive dynamics within their industries [1] - The majority of recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious approach to investment opportunities, with only a small fraction of companies deemed suitable for buying at any given time [1] Group 2 - The articles aim to provide important information for future investors and introduce a healthy skepticism towards a generally bullish market [1] - There is a clear distinction made between the author's opinions and professional investment advice, highlighting the need for readers to conduct their own due diligence [2][3]

Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly impacting e-commerce, with AI-driven online sales on Black Friday reaching a record high of $11.8 billion, reflecting a 9.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Online traffic surged to over 1 trillion, marking an 805% year-over-year increase, aided by AI-powered chatbots that helped customers find the best prices despite tariff-related price hikes [2] - E-commerce sales for Black Friday in 2025 are projected to grow by 10.4% year over year, with estimates for this year's sales reaching $18 billion, a 3% increase from last year [2] E-commerce Stock Recommendations - Five e-commerce stocks are recommended for investment in 2026: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), Etsy Inc. (ETSY), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG), and 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS), all carrying favorable Zacks Ranks [3][8] Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon is experiencing growth from its Prime and Amazon Web Services (AWS) segments, utilizing AI technologies such as the Claude chatbot and Trainium2 AI chips [6][9] - The company has invested $8 billion in Anthropic and plans to use 1 million custom Trainium2 chips for AI applications by 2025 [7] - Amazon's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 11.3% and 9.2%, respectively, with a 2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [11] Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) - Expedia is leveraging AI for personalized trip planning through tools like AI-powered search filters and itinerary builders, integrating OpenAI's ChatGPT into its app [12] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.3% and an earnings growth rate of 20.8% for next year, with a 7.9% improvement in earnings estimates recently [13] Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) - Booking Holdings is enhancing its travel services with AI-driven tools that improve user engagement and booking conversion rates [15] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 8.9% and an earnings growth rate of 15.8% for next year, with a slight improvement in earnings estimates [17] Etsy Inc. (ETSY) - Etsy is focusing on AI-driven personalization and advanced search ranking models to enhance user experience and drive sales [19] - The expected revenue growth rate for Etsy is 3.4%, with earnings growth projected to exceed 100% for next year [20] 1stdibs.Com Inc. (DIBS) - 1stdibs.Com connects sellers of luxury items with buyers, utilizing AI to monitor its impact on the design market [21] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 2.8% and an earnings growth rate of 32.5% for next year, with a significant improvement in earnings estimates [22]

Core Insights - The 1stDibs annual Interior Designer Trends Survey reveals that chocolate brown, maximalism, and vintage antiques are the leading design trends for 2026, reflecting a blend of modern and nostalgic influences [1][4][5] Part 1: The Design Trends - Chocolate brown is the top color choice for 2026, selected by 33% of designers, nearly doubling from 17% in 2022 [5][6] - Maximalism (39%) and eclecticism (38%) are the most requested design styles, indicating a shift towards more expressive aesthetics [6][9] - Interest in vintage and antique items is growing, with 36% of sourced items in 2025 being vintage or antique, the highest since 2021 [8] - The use of AI tools among designers has tripled to 29% in 2025, with an additional 20% planning to adopt these tools [13][14] Part 2: Room-by-Room Design Requests - Living rooms (63%) and kitchens (52%) remain the most requested spaces, reflecting a focus on functionality and self-care [12] Part 3: Industry Outlook - The impact of tariffs introduced in 2025 is significant, with 92% of designers reporting negative effects on their businesses [15] - The share of internationally sourced items has decreased to 28%, while domestic sourcing has increased to 72%, indicating a trend towards local procurement [16]

Core Insights - 1stdibs.com, Inc. reported a third-quarter EPS of -$0.10, exceeding the estimated EPS of -$0.13, resulting in a positive earnings surprise of 23.08% [1][6] - The company's revenue for the quarter was approximately $21.97 million, surpassing the estimated $21.51 million, reflecting a 2.15% increase over the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a year-over-year increase from $21.19 million [2][6] - DIBS's gross profit increased by 9% year-over-year to $16.3 million, with a gross margin improvement to 74.3% from 71.0% in the same quarter of the previous year [4][6] Financial Metrics - The company has a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -7.29, while the price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.67, indicating investors are willing to pay $1.67 for every dollar of sales [3] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 1.63, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is significantly negative at -59.21, indicating challenges in generating positive cash flow [3] - DIBS maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of approximately 3.87, suggesting it can cover its short-term liabilities [4] Debt and Equity Position - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.22, indicating a relatively low level of debt compared to equity, contributing to its financial stability [5] - Over the past four quarters, DIBS has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times, demonstrating its ability to outperform market expectations [5]

Core Insights - 1stdibs.com (DIBS) reported a quarterly loss of $0.1 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.13, and an improvement from a loss of $0.15 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +23.08% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $21.97 million for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.15% and showing growth from $21.19 million in the same quarter last year [2] - 1stdibs has exceeded consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates four times during the same period [2] Financial Performance - The stock has underperformed, losing about 1.7% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 14.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.13 on revenues of $22.83 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.51 on revenues of $89.01 million [7] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which 1stdibs belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 41% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The performance of 1stdibs may be influenced by the overall outlook of the industry, as research indicates that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific information or insights regarding a company or industry [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net revenue of $22 million, representing a 4% year-over-year increase [19] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was approximately $240,000, a significant improvement from a loss of $3 million in the previous year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 1%, compared to negative 14% a year ago [22] - Operating expenses decreased by 6% year-over-year, and down 10% when excluding severance costs, indicating a structural change in profitability [16][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) of $90-$96 million for the fourth quarter, reflecting a year-over-year growth in conversion and average order value (AOV) [23] - AOV was nearly $2,700, and median order value was approximately $1,300, both up 10% year-over-year [17] - The number of unique sellers decreased by 17% to approximately 5,800, while total listings grew by 1% to nearly 1.9 million [18][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The trade segment drove slightly stronger GMV growth year-over-year, indicating a broad-based growth across core buyer segments [18] - The art vertical, accounting for a low teens percentage of total GMV, was the fastest-growing vertical, up double digits [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company executed a strategic realignment to prioritize high ROI technology investments and reduce costs, resulting in a significant shift in workforce composition towards product and engineering roles [6][15] - A new $12 million share repurchase program was authorized, reflecting confidence in generating free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders [4][22] - The company is focusing on maximizing employee productivity through AI integration in product development, with over 25% of new code being written by AI [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2026, assuming low single-digit revenue growth [25] - The strategic decision to reduce performance marketing spending is expected to create a more efficient cost structure that can achieve profitability with minimal reliance on top-line growth [21][24] - The company is optimistic about its competitive position in the luxury market, anticipating a rebound and emphasizing the importance of technology investments for seller ROI [13][14] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a pricing increase effective October 1, impacting about 20% of sellers with a roughly 10% increase, without significant churn [31] - The company is developing its 2026 product roadmap and plans to share more details in the next earnings call [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Rationale and benefits of the September strategic realignment - Management highlighted that the realignment aimed to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability and reallocate investments from sales and marketing to higher ROI engineering and product development [29] Question: Impact of the recent pricing increase - The pricing increase was targeted, affecting about 20% of sellers with a 10% increase, and there was no meaningful increase in churn due to the proportionality between value creation and costs [31]

Financial Performance - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for Q3 2025 was $89.1 million, a 5.2% increase from $84.6 million in Q3 2024[94] - Net revenue for Q3 2025 was $22.0 million, up 4% from $21.2 million in Q3 2024, driven by an increase in average order value[111] - Net revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $66.7 million, up $1.2 million or 2% from $65.5 million in 2024, driven by an increase in GMV and average order value[121] Order and Buyer Metrics - Number of Orders decreased to 31,960 in Q3 2025 from 33,347 in Q3 2024, representing a decline of 4.1%[94] - Active Buyers remained stable at 63,195 in Q3 2025 compared to 62,527 in Q3 2024, showing a slight increase of 1.1%[94] Profitability and Loss - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $(243) thousand, an improvement from $(2,983) thousand in Q3 2024[94] - Loss from operations improved to $(4.7) million in Q3 2025 compared to $(7.4) million in Q3 2024[109] - Net loss for Q3 2025 was $(3.5) million, a decrease from $(5.7) million in Q3 2024, reflecting a 38.4% improvement[109] Revenue Composition - Marketplace transaction fees accounted for 74% of net revenue in both Q3 2025 and Q3 2024, while subscription fees represented 21% and 22% respectively[112] Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased to $21.0 million in Q3 2025 from $22.4 million in Q3 2024, a reduction of 6.3%[109] - Cost of revenue decreased to $5.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, down $0.5 million or 8% from $6.2 million in 2024, primarily due to lower shipping expenses and credit card processing fees[113] - Sales and marketing expenses were $8.0 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease of $1.2 million or 13% from $9.1 million in 2024, mainly due to reduced performance-based marketing[115] - Technology development expenses rose to $5.9 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, an increase of $0.4 million or 8% from $5.5 million in 2024, primarily due to higher salaries and benefits[116] Cash Flow and Investments - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $93.4 million, with an accumulated deficit of $345.0 million[135] - Net cash used in operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $6.7 million, compared to $5.7 million for the same period in 2024[142][144] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, net cash provided by investing activities was $4.2 million, primarily from $56.8 million in maturities and sales of short-term investments[145] Future Outlook and Risks - The company continues to face challenges from macroeconomic factors, including housing market volatility and global economic developments, impacting GMV and net revenue[111] - The company expects to continue incurring substantial expenditures to support ongoing activities and may need to borrow funds or raise additional equity for long-term objectives[136][137] - The company performed a goodwill impairment assessment, indicating that goodwill may be at risk of impairment in the future due to a decline in stock price[149] - A hypothetical 100 basis point change in interest rates could result in an approximate $0.7 million increase or decrease in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments[156] - An adverse 10% change in current exchange rates could lead to a decrease of no more than $2.4 million in net revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[158] Accounting and Compliance - The company has maintained provisions for potential credit losses, with no single customer accounting for more than 10% of net revenue for the periods ended September 30, 2025, and 2024[159] - The company is classified as an emerging growth company and has elected to delay adopting new accounting standards until they apply to private companies[152] Stock Repurchase Program - The 2023 Stock Repurchase Program authorized repurchases of up to $25.5 million, with 4,926,635 shares repurchased at a cost basis of $25.4 million as of September 30, 2025[138][140]

Company Overview - 1stDibs operates an asset-light, two-sided marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of luxury goods[15] - The company's mission is to enrich lives with extraordinary design[10] - 1stDibs has a legacy brand built since its founding in Paris in 2000[17] Key Metrics - 1stDibs has over 7 million registered users[20] - The company's seller stock value exceeds $10 billion[20] - Cumulative GMV from Q1 2016 through Q3 2025 reached $3.1 billion[20] - The platform has processed over 11 million cumulative orders[20] - The average order value (AOV) on the platform is $2,700[20] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $22 million[31] - Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was -$243 thousand, representing a -11% Adjusted EBITDA Margin[43] - Gross Margin is 73%[20]