A month has gone by since the last earnings report for EverQuote (EVER) . Shares have added about 16% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is EverQuote due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, est ...

Shares of EverQuote (EVER) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 29.3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $28.25 in the previous session. EverQuote has gained 40.3% since the start of the year compared to the 2.3% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 5.1% return for the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry.What's Driving the Outperformance?The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of th ...

Company Overview - EverQuote (EVER) shares increased by 5.4% to close at $28.05, with a notable volume of shares traded, reflecting a 22.7% gain over the past four weeks [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its exclusive data assets, technology, focus on core P&C markets, streamlined operations, and strong financial profile, positioning it for long-term growth [1] Financial Performance - EverQuote anticipates revenues between $155 million and $160 million for Q1 2025, supported by solid performances in automotive and other insurance verticals [2] - The company is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.32 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 540%, with revenues expected to reach $158.08 million, up 73.6% from the previous year [4] - Lower advertising costs and increased revenue per quote request are expected to enhance variable marketing dollars (VMD), a key business metric [3] Earnings Estimates and Market Sentiment - The consensus EPS estimate for EverQuote has been revised 100% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [5] - EverQuote holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting strong market sentiment towards the stock [5] Industry Context - EverQuote operates within the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry, where another company, Fidelis Insurance Holdings (FIHL), has seen a decline of 6.6% over the past month [5] - In contrast, Fidelis Insurance's EPS estimate has decreased by 164.2% over the past month, indicating a negative outlook compared to EverQuote [6]

Group 1: Stock Performance and Price Targets - EverQuote (EVER) shares have increased by 22.7% over the past four weeks, closing at $26.61, with a mean price target of $33.83 indicating a potential upside of 27.1% [1] - The mean estimate consists of six short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $2.99, where the lowest estimate of $29 suggests a 9% increase, and the highest estimate of $38 indicates a 42.8% surge [2] - A tight clustering of price targets, represented by a low standard deviation, suggests a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [7] Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Analyst Consensus - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about EverQuote's earnings prospects, as indicated by a strong agreement in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 46.1% over the past month, with six estimates increasing and no negative revisions [10] - EverQuote currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [11] Group 3: Analyst Behavior and Price Target Reliability - Analysts often set overly optimistic price targets due to business incentives, which can lead to inflated estimates [6] - Empirical research indicates that price targets set by analysts rarely reflect the actual price direction of a stock, suggesting that investors should approach these targets with skepticism [5][8] - While consensus price targets may not be reliable for predicting stock gains, they can provide a directional guide for further research [12]

Core Viewpoint - EverQuote, Inc. (EVER) has reached a significant support level and is considered a good investment opportunity from a technical perspective due to a recent "golden cross" formation [1] Technical Analysis - EVER's 50-day simple moving average has recently broken above its 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish breakout [1] - A successful golden cross event consists of three stages: the stock price bottoms out, the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average, and the stock maintains upward momentum [2] Performance Metrics - Over the past four weeks, EVER has gained 17.2% [3] - The company currently holds a 1 (Strong Buy) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting potential for further breakout [3] Earnings Outlook - There have been no earnings estimate cuts for the current quarter, with six revisions higher in the past 60 days, indicating a positive earnings outlook [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate has also increased, further solidifying the bullish case for EVER [3] Investment Consideration - Investors are encouraged to monitor EVER for potential gains in the near future, given its key technical level and positive earnings estimate revisions [4]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant rally in 2024 following a strong bull run in 2023, but faced a downturn in February 2025, with major indexes declining [1][2]. Market Conditions - Concerns regarding the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth and inflation persist [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and other regions contribute to market uncertainty [2]. Stock Performance - Five stocks identified as having strong price momentum include EverQuote Inc. (EVER), Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ), The Progressive Corp. (PGR), Sony Group Corp. (SONY), and NatWest Group plc (NWG) [3][10][12][15][20]. - EverQuote's stock price increased by 33.1% in the past four weeks, with expected revenues between $155 million and $160 million for Q1 2025 [11][12]. - Jazz Pharmaceuticals saw a 15.4% rise in stock price, with an expected earnings growth rate of 10.6% for the current year [14]. - The Progressive Corp. experienced a 14.4% stock price appreciation, with an expected earnings growth of 7.3% [16]. - Sony Group's stock price advanced by 13.8%, with an expected earnings growth rate of 15.6% for the next year [19]. - NatWest Group's stock price gained 13.5%, with an expected earnings growth of 6.8% [21]. Investment Strategy - A screening process is suggested to identify potential winning stocks, focusing on criteria such as percentage change in price over 4 and 12 weeks, Zacks Rank, broker ratings, and price proximity to 52-week highs [6][7][8][9]. - This screening narrowed down the stock selection from over 7,700 to just 15 candidates [9].

Core Insights - EverQuote (EVER) shows a significantly improving earnings outlook, making it a solid choice for investors [1] - Analysts are raising earnings estimates for EverQuote, indicating growing optimism about its earnings prospects [2] Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions - For the current quarter, EverQuote is expected to earn $0.25 per share, reflecting a +400% change from the previous year [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EverQuote has increased by 53.13% over the last 30 days, with two estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [4] Current-Year Estimate Revisions - For the full year, EverQuote is projected to earn $1 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +13.64% [5] - The consensus estimate for the current year has increased by 24.69%, with four estimates moving higher and no negative revisions [5] Zacks Rank - EverQuote has achieved a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to favorable estimate revisions, which is a reliable indicator for investors [6] - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 and 2 have historically outperformed the S&P 500 [6] Stock Performance - EverQuote's stock has gained 25.8% over the past four weeks, driven by solid estimate revisions and positive earnings growth prospects [7]

Core Viewpoint - EverQuote (EVER) has shown a significant price increase of 25.8% over the past four weeks, with a mean price target of $32.67 indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of $25.74 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of six short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $4.59, suggesting variability in analyst predictions. The lowest estimate is $25 (2.9% decline), while the highest is $38 (47.6% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets indicates strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [7] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about EverQuote's earnings prospects, with a notable trend of upward revisions in EPS estimates, correlating strongly with potential stock price increases [9] - Over the last 30 days, four earnings estimates have been revised higher, leading to a 24.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [10] - EverQuote holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [11] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are commonly referenced by investors, they can often mislead, as empirical research shows that they rarely indicate actual stock price movements [5][6] - Investors are advised to treat price targets with skepticism and not base investment decisions solely on them, as this could lead to disappointing returns [8]

Revenue and Income - Total revenue for 2024 was $500.2 million, a 73.7% increase from $287.9 million in 2023, but a 28.8% decrease from $404.1 million in 2022[156]. - Net income for 2024 was $32.2 million, while net losses were $51.3 million in 2023 and $24.4 million in 2022[156]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $500.2 million, an increase of $212.3 million or 73.7% from $287.9 million in 2023[187]. - The automotive insurance vertical contributed an increase of $218.6 million to revenue, while the home and renters insurance vertical added $11.1 million[187]. - Automotive insurance revenue for 2024 was $446.1 million, representing 89% of total revenue, compared to $227.5 million in 2023[271]. - One customer accounted for 39% of total revenue in 2024, up from 18% in 2023, indicating increased customer concentration risk[263]. - Commission revenue represented less than 10% of total revenue for both 2024 and 2023, and 13% for 2022[268]. Expenses - Total operating expenses for 2024 were $468,439,000, up from $339,896,000 in 2023, primarily driven by increased sales and marketing expenses[248]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by $147.6 million to $387.7 million in 2024, representing 83.4% of revenue[189]. - Research and development expenses rose to $29.6 million in 2024, an increase of $2.0 million or 7.1% from 2023[191]. - General and administrative expenses increased by $4.0 million to $30.3 million in 2024, accounting for 6.1% of revenue[192]. - Cost of revenue decreased to $20.9 million in 2024, down 6.8% from $22.5 million in 2023, representing 4.2% of revenue[188]. - Advertising expenses for the years ended December 31, 2024, 2023, and 2022 totaled $345.0 million, $187.6 million, and $275.9 million, respectively, indicating a significant increase in 2024 compared to 2023[289]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were $102.1 million, with an additional $25.0 million available under the revolving line of credit[200]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was $66.6 million in 2024, compared to a cash used of $2.8 million in 2023[205]. - Current assets increased significantly to $171.78 million in 2024 from $69.24 million in 2023, with cash and cash equivalents rising to $102.12 million[246]. - Total assets grew to $210.53 million in 2024, up from $110.93 million in 2023[246]. - The company maintained no outstanding borrowings under its credit facility as of December 31, 2024, indicating no material exposure to interest rate fluctuations[227]. Stock and Equity - Stockholders' equity increased to $135.37 million in 2024, compared to $80.91 million in 2023[246]. - The weighted average common shares outstanding for 2024 were 35,007,000, an increase from 33,350,000 in 2023[248]. - The Company granted 1,302,166 restricted stock units (RSUs) in 2024, with a grant-date fair value of $18.24 per share[329]. - The unvested balance of RSUs as of December 31, 2024, was 2,079,245 shares, with a weighted average grant-date fair value of $15.17[329]. Tax and Deferred Assets - The effective income tax rate for 2024 was 5.4%, compared to (1.1)% in 2023, influenced by a full valuation allowance against net deferred tax assets[333]. - The valuation allowance for deferred tax assets decreased to $48,508,000 in 2024 from $53,948,000 in 2023, primarily due to the use of net operating loss carryforwards[338]. - As of December 31, 2024, the Company had federal net operating loss carryforwards of $70.1 million and state net operating loss carryforwards of $82.5 million[333]. Company Strategy and Operations - The company exited the health insurance vertical in 2023 to focus on core areas and implemented a workforce reduction plan to improve efficiency[155]. - The company plans to increase consumer traffic by leveraging platform features and data assets, while managing advertising spend based on profitability[158]. - The Company operates as a single segment, generating revenue principally from referral fees in its online marketplace for auto and home insurance quotes[286]. Legal and Compliance - The company is currently involved in a civil action regarding alleged breaches of the Equity Purchase Agreement related to its acquisition of certain entities, with unspecified damages sought[351]. - The company has not incurred any material costs from indemnification agreements through December 31, 2024, and does not believe any claims will materially affect its financial position[349].

Core Insights - EverQuote (EVER) reported a fourth-quarter 2024 operating net income per share of 33 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 83.3% and rebounding from a loss of 19 cents per share in the prior year [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenues reached $147.5 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10% and increasing 164.8% year over year [4] - Revenues in the Automotive insurance vertical surged 200% year over year to $135 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $121 million [3] - Home and Renters insurance revenues totaled $11.3 million, a 15% increase year over year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.5 million [3] - Revenues in the Other insurance vertical plummeted 74.7% year over year to $0.2 million [3] - Total costs and operating expenses rose 116.7% to $135.4 million, driven by increased sales and marketing, research and development, and general and administrative expenses [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was $18.9 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.9 million in the previous year [5] Cash and Assets - EverQuote ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $102.1 million, a 169% increase from the end of 2023 [6] - Total assets grew by 89.9% to $180.5 million, while total stockholders' equity increased 67.3% to $135.4 million [6] - Cash from operations was $66.6 million in 2024, compared to a cash outflow of $2.8 million in the prior year [6] Future Guidance - For Q1 2025, EverQuote estimates revenues between $155 million and $160 million, with a variable marketing margin of $44 million to $46 million, and adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $19 million and $21 million [7]