Changpeng Zhao Predicts a Super Cycle Driven by RWA and Prediction Markets During a high-profile appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos and subsequent industry discussions in early 2026, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) articulated a bold vision for the future of the digital economy. CZ predicted that 2026 will likely be the year that Bitcoin breaks its traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle, entering a “super cycle” fueled by institutional adoption and pro-crypto sentiment in the United Sta ...

Core Insights - Authentic Brands Group has successfully taken Guess? private by acquiring a majority stake in its intellectual property, restructuring the ownership of its assets [1][3] - The transaction allows Guess? management to retain control over the operating business, with existing shareholders keeping 49% of the intellectual property [1][2] Transaction Details - Authentic acquired 51% of Guess?'s intellectual property, while existing shareholders retained 49% [1] - The deal was executed through a merger, with Glow Merger Sub 1 being absorbed into Guess?, making Guess? a wholly owned subsidiary of Glow Holdco 1 [3] - Following the completion of the deal, Guess?'s shares ceased trading on the New York Stock Exchange, and the company plans to end its public reporting obligations [4] Financial Implications - Public shareholders received $16.75 in cash for each share, excluding stock held by Authentic and rolling shareholders, which was cancelled without payment [4] - Outstanding equity awards were converted into cash at the same price, subject to tax deductions, and the indenture governing its 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2028 was amended [5] - Holders of the convertible notes can demand repurchase at par plus accrued interest by February 23, 2026, or convert them into cash at a rate of $768.37 for every $1,000 in principal [5] Leadership and Future Outlook - Guess? co-founder and CEO Paul Marciano expressed pride in the brand's legacy and highlighted the potential for growth by joining Authentic's platform [6]

Core Insights - Union Pacific achieved its highest-ever quarterly freight revenue, operating income, and cash from operations, driven by strong volume growth, pricing gains, and productivity improvements [6][18] - The company is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern regarding a potential business combination, although no agreement has been confirmed [6][39] - Management remains confident in achieving its multi-year EPS CAGR target despite anticipated sequential volume moderation in the upcoming quarters [6][21] Financial Performance - Adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $3.03, a 12% increase, excluding a $115 million deferred tax benefit and a $55 million labor expense [4][11] - Operating revenue was $6.2 billion, a 2% increase, with freight revenue hitting a record $5.8 billion, up 4% [4][13] - The adjusted operating ratio improved to 58.1%, reflecting a 230 basis point enhancement [4][18] Revenue Drivers - Freight revenue excluding fuel surcharge grew 6%, achieving record quarterly and year-to-date totals [4][12] - Volume growth contributed 375 basis points to freight revenue, with Bulk segment volumes up 11%, Industrial up 3%, and Premium up 1% [4][8] - Core pricing and mix provided a 200 basis point benefit to freight revenue, with net pricing above inflation for the third consecutive quarter [4][12] Cost and Efficiency Metrics - Fuel expenses decreased by 8% due to an 11% drop in fuel prices, while the fuel consumption rate improved by 2% [4][17] - Compensation and benefits expenses rose by 5%, primarily due to the Brakeperson buyout, but increased only 1% when adjusted for this expense [4][15] - Workforce productivity improved by 9%, reaching an all-time quarterly record, while locomotive productivity increased by 5% [4][36] Shareholder Returns - The company returned $4.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the second quarter, with a 3% dividend increase announced, marking 19 consecutive years of increases [4][19] - The adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio ended at 2.8x, maintaining A-ratings from three credit agencies [4][19] Segment Trends - Bulk revenue increased by 10% with an 11% rise in volume, while Industrial revenue grew by 4% with a 3% increase in volume [8][24] - Premium revenue decreased by 4% despite a 1% increase in volume, reflecting challenges in international and domestic intermodal volumes [8][26] - Management anticipates continued growth in coal volumes driven by favorable natural gas pricing and new customer demand [8][27] Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed a high single to low double-digit 3-year EPS CAGR target, expecting 2025 EPS growth to align with this range [8][21] - The company plans to maintain operational improvements and cost control while seeking pricing opportunities that reflect service value [21][38] - External pressures, including tariff implications and changes in consumer behavior, are acknowledged as potential challenges for the second half of the year [8][21]

Core Insights - Authentic Brands Group has completed the acquisition of Guess?, Inc., taking it private, with Authentic owning 51% of Guess?'s intellectual property and existing shareholders retaining 49% [1][2] - Guess? has $6 billion in global retail-equivalent sales, making it Authentic's second-largest brand and increasing Authentic's total annual retail sales to $38 billion globally [1] Company Overview - Current management of Guess? retains 100% ownership of the operating company and will continue to manage its operations, with Switzerland serving as a central hub for global strategic direction [2] - Guess? is recognized for its strong leadership, heritage, and extensive licensing network, which positions it well for future growth [3] Strategic Vision - Authentic's CEO emphasized the brand's strong foundation and potential for growth, highlighting the importance of maintaining Guess?'s brand identity while expanding its market presence [3] - The partnership aims to enhance customer experience, strengthen brand partnerships, and leverage Authentic's resources for new growth opportunities [3] Market Position - Authentic Brands Group operates a diversified portfolio of over 50 brands, generating more than $38 billion in annual retail sales through a vast network of licensing partners [5][6] - Guess? designs and distributes a wide range of lifestyle products and operates over 1,000 retail stores globally, with a presence in approximately 100 countries [8]

Core Viewpoint - Guess (GES) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook for the company's earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are crucial for predicting near-term stock price movements [2][4]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in buying or selling pressure that affects stock prices [4]. Business Improvement Indicators - The upgrade reflects an improvement in Guess's underlying business, suggesting that investors may respond positively by driving the stock price higher [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Guess indicates expected earnings of $1.69 per share for the fiscal year ending January 2026, with a 6% increase in estimates over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions and potential for market-beating returns [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Winmark Corp. will replace Guess? Inc. in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective January 26, 2026, due to an acquisition by Authentic Brands Group LLC and the Rolling Stockholders [1] Group 1: Company Changes - Winmark Corp. (Ticker: WINA) will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index [1] - Guess? Inc. (Ticker: GES) will be deleted from the S&P SmallCap 600 index [1] - Both companies belong to the Consumer Discretionary sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Three stocks with strong income characteristics and a buy rank are highlighted for investors to consider, including Guess, Inc., JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd., and Science Applications International Corporation [1][2]. Group 1: Company Summaries - **Guess, Inc. (GES)**: This lifestyle and apparel company has seen a 5.6% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days. It has a dividend yield of 5.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.0% [1]. - **JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS)**: This solar energy company has experienced a substantial 39.3% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days. It offers a dividend yield of 4.4%, also above the industry average of 0.0% [2]. - **Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)**: This technology services company has seen a 3.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days. It has a dividend yield of 1.3%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Investors in Guess? Inc. should closely monitor stock movements due to significant activity in the options market, particularly the high implied volatility of the Jan. 16, 2026 $34.75 Put option [1] Group 1: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectations for future price movements, suggesting that a significant event may be anticipated that could lead to a major price change [2] - High implied volatility in options often signals that traders expect a substantial move in the underlying stock, which could be due to an upcoming event [2] Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Guess? currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) in the Textile – Apparel industry, which is in the top 25% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] - Over the past 60 days, one analyst has raised earnings estimates for the current quarter, while no analysts have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.53 to $1.47 per share [3] Group 3: Trading Strategies - The high implied volatility surrounding Guess? shares may indicate a developing trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility [4] - Seasoned traders utilize this strategy to capture decay, hoping that the underlying stock does not move as much as initially expected by expiration [4]

Core Insights - lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) and Guess? Inc. (GES) are positioned differently in the global apparel market, with LULU focusing on premium athleisure and GES as a heritage lifestyle brand [2][3] Group 1: lululemon (LULU) - LULU has achieved a 7% revenue growth in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with international revenues increasing by 33% and China Mainland revenues up by 46% in constant currency [5][6] - The company's "Power of Three x2" plan aims to double men's, digital, and international revenues by 2026, emphasizing product innovation and category expansion [6] - Despite its premium positioning, LULU faces challenges from rising trade and tariff pressures, which have impacted gross margins [7][8] - LULU's stock trades at a forward P/E of 15.97X, which is below its 3-year median of 37.04X but above GES's 9.7X [21][22] Group 2: Guess (GES) - GES has a strong international presence, particularly in Europe and Asia, and focuses on categories like denim and handbags [9][10] - In Q3 of fiscal 2026, GES reported improved gross margins due to lower promotions and better inventory discipline, despite macro pressures [13] - GES's stock has shown a total return of 47.4% over the past six months, outperforming LULU's decline of 9% [19] - The company is prioritizing margin expansion and cash generation, with ongoing investments in digital platforms and omni-channel capabilities [12][13] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GES suggests an 8% year-over-year sales growth for fiscal 2026, while LULU's estimate indicates a 4.5% growth [14][16] - Recent estimate revisions for GES reflect growing investor confidence, while LULU's estimates show a decline in EPS [14][18][26] - Overall, GES is viewed as a more compelling investment choice due to its attractive valuation, steady international growth, and disciplined cost management [25][26]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended November 1, 2025, product sales increased to $760.32 million, up from $705.51 million for the same period last year, representing a growth of 7.7%[13] - Net revenue for the nine months ended November 1, 2025, reached $2.21 billion, compared to $2.06 billion for the same period in the previous year, reflecting an increase of 7.2%[13] - Gross profit for the three months ended November 1, 2025, was $335.98 million, compared to $321.88 million for the same period last year, indicating a growth of 4.4%[13] - The company reported a net earnings of $29.39 million for the three months ended November 1, 2025, compared to a net loss of $20.76 million for the same period last year[13] - Net earnings for the nine months ended November 1, 2025, were $6,438,000, a significant improvement from a net loss of $(13,485,000) in the same period last year, representing a turnaround of approximately 148%[18] - Total net revenue for the three months ended Nov 1, 2025, was $791.427 million, a significant increase from the previous year[108] - For the nine months ended Nov 1, 2025, total net revenue was $2.212 billion, with product sales amounting to $2.130 billion[109] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of November 1, 2025, amounted to $3.01 billion, an increase from $2.77 billion as of February 1, 2025, representing a growth of 8.7%[12] - Current liabilities remained stable at $831.91 million as of November 1, 2025, compared to $831.33 million as of February 1, 2025[12] - The company’s long-term debt and finance lease obligations increased to $299.54 million as of November 1, 2025, compared to $150.67 million as of February 1, 2025[12] - Total debt and finance lease obligations as of November 1, 2025, amounted to $326,252, with long-term obligations at $299,542[114] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flows from operating activities showed a net cash used of $(37,956,000), an improvement compared to $(61,555,000) in the prior year, indicating a reduction in cash outflow by about 38%[18] - Net cash used in investing activities was $(71,795,000), a decrease from $(85,333,000) in the prior year, indicating a 16% improvement in cash management[18] - The company reported a net cash provided by financing activities of $68,777,000, contrasting with a net cash used of $(61,977,000) in the prior year, indicating a positive shift in financing strategy[18] Expenses - Selling, general and administrative expenses for the three months ended November 1, 2025, were $309.03 million, up from $279.39 million for the same period last year, an increase of 10.6%[13] - The company reported depreciation and amortization expenses of $54,762,000, up from $51,114,000, reflecting a 5% increase year-over-year[18] - Advertising and marketing expenses for the three and nine months ended November 1, 2025, were $25.3 million and $76.3 million, respectively, compared to $25.7 million and $68.6 million for the same periods in 2024[51] Shareholder Activities - Dividends paid during the period totaled $43,413,000, down from $167,187,000, representing a reduction of approximately 74%[18] - The cash dividend declared per share for the three months ended November 1, 2025, was $0.225, down from $0.300 in the same period in 2024[90] - The company had remaining authority under the 2024 Share Repurchase Program to purchase approximately $139.8 million of its common stock as of November 1, 2025[89] Acquisitions and Mergers - Guess? announced the acquisition of all operating assets and a 50% interest in the intellectual property assets of rag & bone on April 2, 2024[25] - The company completed the acquisition of rag & bone on April 2, 2024, which included 34 stores in the U.S. and two in the U.K.[59] - A proposed take-private transaction with Authentic Brands Group was announced on August 20, 2025, offering shareholders $16.75 per share in cash[26] - The merger agreement includes a strategic partnership where Authentic would own 51% of the company's intellectual property[27] - The company’s stockholders adopted the merger agreement on November 21, 2025, with certain regulatory approvals still pending[29] Inventory and Receivables - The company's inventories increased to $692.266 million as of November 1, 2025, compared to $562.649 million as of February 1, 2025, representing a rise of about 23.1%[98] - As of November 1, 2025, total accounts receivable amounted to $417.175 million, up from $397.815 million as of February 1, 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 4.3%[97] - Approximately 43% of the Company's total net trade accounts receivable were subject to credit insurance coverage as of November 1, 2025[49] Legal and Regulatory Matters - The Company is involved in legal proceedings, including a customs tax assessment totaling €9.8 million ($11.3 million) from the Italian Customs Agency, which the Company is appealing[182] Pension and Benefits - The net periodic defined benefit pension cost for the three months ended November 1, 2025, was $1.821 million, with a total cost of $5.329 million for the nine months ended[189] - The foreign pension plans had a total projected benefit obligation of $77.2 million and plan assets of $63.1 million as of November 1, 2025, resulting in a net liability of $14.1 million[188] Market Conditions - The Company continues to monitor macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and consumer spending declines, which are negatively impacting its business[36]