Guess(GES)

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Guess: Comparables Are Deteriorating, And I'm Returning The Stock To The Too Hard Pile (Rating Downgrade)
Seeking Alpha· 2024-08-30 10:45
Core Viewpoint - Guess?, Inc. reported Q2 2024 results that appeared optically good with a 10% top-line growth, primarily driven by the acquisition of rag & bone, but underlying comparable retail sales showed significant declines, particularly in the Americas and APAC regions [1][2][4] Financial Performance - The company experienced a 10% growth in top-line revenue, largely attributed to the acquisition of rag & bone, although specific figures were not disclosed [2] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) comparable sales fell by 10% in the Americas and 14% in APAC, indicating ongoing challenges in these markets [2] - SG&A expenses increased by 23% year-over-year, amounting to an additional $50 million, partly due to the integration of rag & bone [3] Market Dynamics - The Americas segment has faced declining comparable sales since Q2 2023, with traffic issues and potential product problems contributing to the poor performance [2][5] - Europe showed a slight improvement with a 1% growth in comparable sales, suggesting that the brand is gaining traction in this region [2] Strategic Insights - The company plans to double its advertising-to-revenue ratio from 1.5%, which would increase marketing expenses by an additional $50 million annually [3] - Management intends to continue investing in marketing despite lower comparable sales, which may impact margins if sales do not improve significantly [3] Valuation Considerations - The current market capitalization of Guess? is approximately $1.05 billion, with a projected net income of about $150 million for FY25, resulting in a P/E ratio of 7x [4] - If sales decline by 10% in FY26, net income could drop to around $56 million, leading to a P/E ratio of 18x, indicating that the market anticipates continued negative trends [4] Analyst Sentiment - Concerns were raised regarding the potential influence of paid analysts on management's communications, which could affect investor perceptions [3][5] - Given the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the company's future, it has been suggested to categorize Guess? as a "too hard" investment opportunity, prompting a shift to a Hold rating [5]
Guess? Lags on Q2 Earnings, Cuts FY25 View on Consumer Slowdown
ZACKS· 2024-08-29 15:57
Guess? Inc. (GES) posted mixed second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with the top line increasing year over year. The bottom line declined from the year-ago quarter's reported figure and missed the consensus mark. The company is lowering its fiscal 2025 revenue and earnings outlook to reflect the current weaker consumer environment. That said, it is effectively managing its costs and inventories while still supporting business growth through investments in marketing, new stores and infrastructure. The acquisi ...
Guess (GES) Misses Q2 Earnings Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-08-28 22:26
Guess (GES) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.42 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.72 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for nonrecurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -4.55%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this clothing company would post a loss of $0.39 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.27, delivering a surprise of 30.77%. Over the last four quarters, the company has s ...
Guess(GES) - 2025 Q2 - Quarterly Results
2024-08-28 20:16
Financial Performance - Revenues for Q2 FY2025 increased to $733 million, up 10% in U.S. dollars and 13% in constant currency compared to the prior year[1]. - GAAP net loss for Q2 FY2025 was $10.6 million, resulting in a GAAP loss per share of $0.28, compared to GAAP net earnings of $39.0 million and EPS of $0.59 in the same prior-year quarter[6][7]. - Adjusted net earnings for Q2 FY2025 were $23.0 million, a 42% decrease from $39.7 million in the same prior-year quarter, with adjusted EPS decreasing to $0.42 from $0.72[7]. - The Company expects revenue growth for the full fiscal year 2025 to be between 9.5% and 11.0% in U.S. dollars, with GAAP EPS projected between $1.92 and $2.14[1][2]. - Adjusted earnings from operations for Q2 FY2025 decreased 41.6% to $37.9 million, with adjusted operating margin falling to 5.2% from 9.8% in the same prior-year quarter[10][11]. - The Company expects consolidated net revenue to increase between 14.5% and 16.5% for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 and between 9.5% and 11.0% for the full fiscal year 2025[24]. - GAAP diluted EPS is projected to be between $0.28 and $0.38 for the third quarter and between $1.92 and $2.14 for the full fiscal year 2025[24]. - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to range from $0.33 to $0.45 for the third quarter and from $2.42 to $2.70 for the full fiscal year 2025[26]. - The effective income tax rate for the three months ended August 3, 2024, was 373.9%, significantly higher than 26.5% in the same period last year[42]. - Adjusted net earnings attributable to Guess?, Inc. for the three months ended August 3, 2024, were $22,950,000, a decrease of 42.3% from $39,712,000 in the same period last year[43]. Revenue Breakdown - Americas Wholesale revenues surged by 93% in U.S. dollars and 94% in constant currency during Q2 FY2025[8]. - Europe revenues increased by 5% in U.S. dollars and 8% in constant currency, while Asia revenues decreased by 8% in U.S. dollars and 4% in constant currency[8][9]. - Product sales for the three months ended August 3, 2024, reached $703,460,000, a 10.5% increase from $636,496,000 for the same period last year[42]. - Net revenue for the six months ended August 3, 2024, was $1,324,503,000, compared to $1,234,310,000 for the same period last year, reflecting a 7.3% increase[42]. - Total net revenue for the three months ended August 3, 2024, was $732,560,000, representing a 10% increase compared to $664,512,000 for the same period last year[49]. - The company’s total net revenue for the six months ended August 3, 2024, was $1,324,503,000, a 7% increase from $1,234,310,000 in the prior year[51]. Expenses and Margins - Operating margin for Q2 FY2025 decreased to 6.5%, down from 9.7% in the same prior-year quarter, primarily due to higher expenses and the impact of newly acquired businesses[10]. - Adjusted earnings from operations for the three months ended August 3, 2024, were $37,943,000, down from $64,992,000 in the same period last year[42]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses increased to $282,951,000, representing 38.7% of net revenue for the three months ended August 3, 2024[42]. - The company experienced a 32% increase in corporate overhead costs, totaling $45,707,000 compared to $34,546,000 in the previous year[49]. - Total lease costs (excluding finance lease costs) increased to $171,730,000 for the six months ended August 3, 2024, compared to $154,507,000 for the same period last year, reflecting an increase of 11%[55]. Acquisitions and Strategic Moves - The Company completed the acquisition of rag & bone on April 2, 2024, integrating it into existing segments and planning to accelerate store openings domestically and internationally[4][5]. - The Company acquired all operating assets and a 50% interest in the intellectual property assets of rag & bone on April 2, 2024, expanding its market presence[36]. - The company has excluded certain costs related to the rag & bone acquisition and other operational transitions from its fiscal 2025 outlook, indicating a focus on core business performance[62]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The Company anticipates free cash flow of $100 million for fiscal 2025, after accounting for $200 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $100 million in capital expenditures[27]. - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share has been approved, payable on September 27, 2024[28]. - The company reported a total asset value of $2,776,645,000 as of August 3, 2024, an increase from $2,590,021,000 in February 2024[53]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $218,856,000 from $360,285,000 in February 2024[53]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for the six months ended August 3, 2024, was $21,734,000, a decrease of 54% compared to $47,273,000 for the six months ended July 29, 2023[55]. - Free cash flow for the six months ended August 3, 2024, was $(22,960,000), compared to $9,075,000 for the six months ended July 29, 2023[56]. Risks and Forward-Looking Statements - Forward-looking statements indicate potential risks including changes in consumer confidence, supply chain disruptions, and impacts from geopolitical events[37]. - The company anticipates that foreign currency exchange rates will remain stable at recently prevailing rates for the third quarter and full fiscal year 2025[62]. Store Operations - As of August 3, 2024, the Company operated 1,054 retail stores globally, with an additional 537 stores operated by partners and distributors[36]. - The company operated a total of 1,591 stores globally as of July 29, 2023, with 1,054 directly operated stores and 537 partner-operated concessions[58].
Guess? (GES) Gears Up for Q2 Earnings Release: Things to Note
ZACKS· 2024-08-23 16:05
Guess? Inc. (GES) is likely to register top-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Aug 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $732 million, suggesting growth of 10.2% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure. However, the bottom line is likely to decline year-over-year in the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 44 cents per share. The projection indicates a decline of 38.9% from the fi ...
Guess?'s (GES) Strategic Plan Aids Growth, Cost Pressures Ail
ZACKS· 2024-08-20 15:26
Guess?, Inc. (GES) is capitalizing on its strong global platform to drive business growth and expansion. GES' expansive global footprint, broad channel capabilities, extensive supply chain, diverse category portfolio and strong management team underscore its growth story. Management is also committed to its six key strategies and has made remarkable progress against each of them. That being said, Guess? is not immune to a rising cost environment. Let's delve deeper. Growth Drivers in Place The Zacks Rank #3 ...
Ceylon Graphite Enters Into Purchase and Distribution Agreement with GES Europe
GlobeNewswire News Room· 2024-07-29 12:00
Vancouver, BC, July 29, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ceylon Graphite Corp. ("Ceylon") (TSX-V: CYL) (OTC: CYLYF) (FSE: CCY) is pleased to announce it has entered into a purchase and distribution agreement with GES Europe GmbH ("GES"), www.geseurope.de , a global leader in graphite product distribution and sales. GES expects the range of products using Ceylon graphite to include, amongst others, 95%+ C direct ship graphite as well as thermally purified 99% C grade. GES will provide customer outreach, market entry ...
Are Investors Undervaluing Guess (GES) Right Now?
ZACKS· 2024-07-09 15:06
Group 1: Value Investing Overview - Value investing is a popular strategy for identifying undervalued stocks using fundamental analysis and metrics [1] - Investors often develop individual strategies, focusing on value, growth, and momentum trends to discover strong companies [3] Group 2: Company Metrics - Hanesbrands (HBI) has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.95, compared to its industry's average of 5.77, with a historical range between 3.31 and 5.97 over the past year [2] - Guess (GES) has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and a Value grade of A, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.84, significantly lower than the industry average of 12.36 [5] - GES's forward P/E has fluctuated between 6.24 and 11.38, with a median of 7.68 over the past year [5] - GES has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.4, compared to the industry's average of 0.66 [6] - HBI is rated as a 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Value grade of A, indicating strong potential for value investors [6] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Both Guess and Hanesbrands are likely undervalued based on their current metrics, making them attractive options for value investors [7]
Guess? (GES) Benefits From Brand Momentum & Growth Pillars
ZACKS· 2024-07-09 14:41
PVH Corp, a renowned apparel company, presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. PVH has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.1%, on average. Guess?, Inc. (GES) is benefiting from robust brand momentum globally and strong customer response to its product categories. The company is committed to its six key strategies and has made remarkable progress against each of them. Courtesy of these upsides, the company began the fiscal 2025 on a strong note, with the first-quarter top line increasing year over year ...
Is Guess (GES) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
ZACKS· 2024-06-20 14:45
The proven Zacks Rank system focuses on earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find winning stocks. Nevertheless, we know that our readers all have their own perspectives, so we are always looking at the latest trends in value, growth, and momentum to find strong picks. Of these, perhaps no stock market trend is more popular than value investing, which is a strategy that has proven to be successful in all sorts of market environments. Value investors use tried-and-true metrics and fundamental analysis ...