Company Performance - Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) reported a quarterly loss of $0.88 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.51, and compared to a loss of $0.81 per share a year ago [1][2] - The earnings surprise for this quarter was -72.55%, and the company had a previous quarter loss of $0.86 per share against an expected loss of $0.28, resulting in a surprise of -207.14% [2] - The company posted revenues of $601.52 million for the quarter ended March 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.24%, and showing a slight increase from year-ago revenues of $597.21 million [3] Stock Performance - Green Plains shares have declined approximately 60.2% since the beginning of the year, in contrast to the S&P 500's decline of -4.3% [4] - The current Zacks Rank for Green Plains is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [7] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.21 on revenues of $623.87 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.67 on revenues of $2.51 billion [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Green Plains is mixed, and changes in earnings expectations may occur following the recent earnings report [7] Industry Context - The Chemical - Specialty industry, to which Green Plains belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact the stock's performance [9]

[Green Plains First Quarter 2025 Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Green%20Plains%20Reports%20First%20Quarter%202025%20Financial%20Results) Green Plains reported a wider net loss and Adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 2025, while advancing strategic carbon reduction projects, achieving significant cost savings, and enhancing liquidity [Q1 2025 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Results%20for%20the%20First%20Quarter%20of%202025) Green Plains reported a net loss of $72.9 million, or ($1.14) per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2025, an increase from the $51.4 million net loss in Q1 2024, with revenues seeing a slight increase to $601.5 million, while Adjusted EBITDA showed a larger loss of ($24.2) million compared to ($21.5) million in the prior-year period Q1 2025 Key Financial Metrics | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $601.5 million | $597.2 million | | Net Loss Attributable to Company | $72.9 million | $51.4 million | | Diluted Loss Per Share | ($1.14) | ($0.81) | | Adjusted EBITDA | ($24.2) million | ($21.5) million | [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) Management emphasized progress on strategic initiatives, including the 'Advantage Nebraska' carbon reduction project, which is on track for a Q4 2025 startup, having achieved $45 million in annualized cost savings, nearing its $50 million target, and positioning the company to deliver positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year under current market conditions, with steps also taken to enhance liquidity and monetize non-core assets - The 'Advantage Nebraska' carbon reduction project is under construction and on track for a Q4 2025 startup[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company has achieved approximately **$45 million** of its **$50 million** annualized cost savings target, with corporate and trade SG&A expected to have a run rate in the low **$40 million** range by year-end[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Management expects to deliver positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year, based on current market conditions, due to cost reductions and a disciplined hedging program[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company is focused on enhancing liquidity and monetizing non-core assets to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce its cost structure[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Operational and Strategic Developments](index=1&type=section&id=Operational%20and%20Strategic%20Developments) The company initiated carbon capture construction, secured new marketing and credit agreements, and underwent corporate reorganization, while experiencing decreased ethanol production volumes and wider operating losses across key segments [Highlights and Recent Developments](index=1&type=section&id=Highlights%20and%20Recent%20Developments) The company highlighted several key developments, including the commencement of construction for its Nebraska carbon capture project, a new marketing agreement with Eco-Energy, LLC, and significant corporate reorganization to reduce costs, additionally refreshing its Board of Directors, extending the maturity of its Mezzanine Notes, and securing a new revolving credit facility - Commenced construction on its carbon capture and storage initiative in Nebraska, targeting a Q4 2025 start-up[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Selected Eco-Energy, LLC as its exclusive ethanol marketer in April 2025 to optimize value and supply chain efficiency[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Ancora Holdings Group, LLC, appointing three new independent board members[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Extended the maturity of its **$125 million** Mezzanine Note facility to May 15, 2026, and entered into a new **$30 million** secured revolving credit facility with Ancora[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=1&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) In Q1 2025, ethanol production volumes decreased to 195.3 million gallons from 207.9 million gallons year-over-year, with the consolidated ethanol crush margin worsening to a loss of ($14.7) million compared to a loss of ($9.3) million in Q1 2024, and the overall net loss increasing by $21.5 million, primarily due to lower margins in the ethanol production and agribusiness segments, along with $16.6 million in restructuring costs Ethanol Production & Crush Margin | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol Gallons Sold | 195.3 million | 207.9 million | | Consolidated Ethanol Crush Margin | ($14.7) million | ($9.3) million | - Consolidated revenues increased slightly by **$4.3 million** due to higher ethanol and natural gas prices, which was offset by lower sales volumes of ethanol, distillers grains, and renewable corn oil[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The net loss increase of **$21.5 million** was driven by weaker segment margins and **$16.6 million** in restructuring costs incurred during the quarter[10](index=10&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=2&type=section&id=Segment%20Information) The Ethanol Production segment's operating loss widened to ($39.6) million from ($33.7) million year-over-year, with revenues slightly decreasing, while the Agribusiness and Energy Services segment saw a significant drop in operating income to $1.5 million from $6.0 million, despite a 10.9% increase in revenue, and Corporate activities' operating loss increased, partly due to $10.3 million in restructuring costs Segment Operations (Three Months Ended March 31) | Segment | Metric | 2025 (in thousands) | 2024 (in thousands) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Ethanol Production** | Revenues | $497,772 | $505,659 | (1.6)% | | | Operating Loss | $(39,550) | $(33,653) | 17.5% | | | Adjusted EBITDA | $(19,416) | $(13,621) | 42.5% | | **Agribusiness & Energy** | Revenues | $109,829 | $98,996 | 10.9% | | | Operating Income | $1,533 | $6,004 | (74.5)% | | | Adjusted EBITDA | $3,156 | $7,056 | (55.3)% | - Corporate activities included **$10.3 million** of restructuring costs related to the company's cost reduction initiative and the departure of its CEO[14](index=14&type=chunk) Selected Operating Data (Three Months Ended March 31) | Product | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol (million gallons) | 195.3 | 207.9 | (6.0)% | | Distillers grains (thousand tons) | 417 | 469 | (11.1)% | | Ultra-High Protein (thousand tons) | 68 | 60 | 13.3% | - The consolidated ethanol crush margin deteriorated to **($14.7) million** in Q1 2025 from **($9.3) million** in Q1 2024[18](index=18&type=chunk) [Financial Position and Outlook](index=4&type=section&id=Financial%20Position%20and%20Outlook) Green Plains maintained substantial cash and credit availability, with improved corporate liquidity, while acknowledging that forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=4&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) As of March 31, 2025, Green Plains had $126.6 million in total cash and restricted cash, with $204.5 million available under a revolving credit facility, and total corporate liquidity was $48.6 million at quarter-end but improved to $89.2 million by May 7, 2025, with total debt outstanding at $571.8 million Liquidity Position | Metric | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | | Total Cash & Restricted Cash | $126.6 million | | Available Revolving Credit | $204.5 million | | Total Debt Outstanding | $571.8 million | | Total Corporate Liquidity | $48.6 million | - Total corporate liquidity increased significantly from **$48.6 million** on March 31, 2025, to **$89.2 million** as of May 7, 2025[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking Statements](index=4&type=section&id=Forward-Looking%20Statements) The report contains forward-looking statements regarding future growth, profitability, and strategic plans, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including industry conditions, commodity market risks, and economic factors, that could cause actual results to differ materially, and the company directs investors to its SEC filings for a more complete discussion of these risks - Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections, and investors should not place undue reliance on them[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Key risks include failure to realize benefits from new products, sustained adverse conditions in the ethanol industry, commodity market volatility, and changes in government policy[25](index=25&type=chunk)[26](index=26&type=chunk) - The company does not intend to update forward-looking statements except as required by law and refers to the 'Risk Factors' in its Form 10-K for more details[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=6&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The company's Q1 2025 financial statements show a decrease in total assets and liabilities, a wider net loss despite slightly increased revenues, and increased cash usage in operating activities [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of March 31, 2025, total assets were $1.67 billion, down from $1.78 billion at year-end 2024, with the decrease primarily driven by a reduction in cash and inventories, and total liabilities also decreased to $859.4 million from $907.6 million, mainly due to lower accounts payable, while total stockholders' equity stood at $807.2 million Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $98,610 | $173,041 | | Total current assets | $450,310 | $569,032 | | Total assets | $1,666,572 | $1,782,174 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Total current liabilities | $325,735 | $385,687 | | Total liabilities | $859,384 | $907,637 | | Total stockholders' equity | $807,188 | $874,537 | [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) For the first quarter of 2025, Green Plains reported revenues of $601.5 million, a slight increase from $597.2 million in Q1 2024, however, a rise in cost of goods sold and SG&A expenses led to a wider operating loss of ($62.3) million, compared to ($44.9) million in the prior-year period, with the net loss attributable to the company being ($72.9) million, or ($1.14) per share Statement of Operations Highlights (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Account | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $601,515 | $597,214 | | Cost of goods sold | $598,476 | $588,847 | | Selling, general and administrative expenses | $42,912 | $31,769 | | Operating loss | $(62,260) | $(44,889) | | Net loss attributable to Green Plains | $(72,906) | $(51,412) | | Diluted loss per share | $(1.14) | $(0.81) | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=8&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash used in operating activities was ($55.0) million, a larger outflow than the ($50.6) million used in the same period of 2024, with net cash used in investing activities at ($20.7) million, primarily for property and equipment purchases, and financing activities using ($7.0) million, resulting in a net decrease in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of ($82.8) million for the quarter Cash Flow Summary (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Cash Flow Activity | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash used in operating activities | $(55,041) | $(50,599) | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(20,710) | $(30,203) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(7,041) | $(20,578) | | **Net change in cash** | **$(82,792)** | **$(101,380)** | [Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=9&type=section&id=Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) The company reconciled its Q1 2025 net loss to Adjusted EBITDA, highlighting the impact of restructuring costs on its non-GAAP financial performance [Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA](index=9&type=section&id=Reconciliations%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) The company provides a reconciliation from its GAAP Net Loss to the non-GAAP measure of Adjusted EBITDA, where for Q1 2025, the net loss of ($72.6) million was adjusted for interest, taxes, D&A, and $16.6 million in restructuring costs, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA of ($24.2) million, which compares to an Adjusted EBITDA of ($21.5) million in Q1 2024 - Management uses non-GAAP measures like EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA to measure financial performance, with Adjusted EBITDA including adjustments for items like restructuring costs[23](index=23&type=chunk) Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Line Item | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net loss | $(72,641) | $(51,122) | | Interest expense | 8,913 | 7,786 | | Income tax expense | (165) | 329 | | Depreciation and amortization | 22,387 | 21,487 | | **EBITDA** | **(41,506)** | **(21,520)** | | Restructuring costs | 16,587 | — | | Other adjustments | 735 | 45 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | **$(24,184)** | **$(21,475)** |

Company Overview - Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.51 per share, reflecting a 37% improvement from the previous year [1][3] - Revenues are projected to be $588.33 million, which is a decrease of 1.5% compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 12.33% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10] - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -39.22%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [10][11] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Green Plains was expected to post a loss of $0.28 per share but instead reported a loss of $0.86, resulting in a surprise of -207.14% [12] - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The stock may experience upward movement if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11][16] Industry Context - In the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, Quaker Chemical (KWR) is also expected to report earnings, with a projected EPS of $1.52, indicating a year-over-year decline of 27.3% [17] - Quaker Chemical's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.5% in the last 30 days, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate results in a positive Earnings ESP of 2.61% [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Green Plains reported consolidated revenues of $584 million for Q4 2024, which is approximately 18% lower than the same period a year ago, primarily due to lower market prices for ethanol, dried distillers grains, and renewable corn oil [26][28] - The company experienced a net loss of $54.9 million or negative $0.86 per share, compared to a net income of $7.2 million or $0.12 per share for the same period in 2023 [10][28] - EBITDA for Q4 was negative $18.9 million, a significant decline from $44.7 million in the prior year [11][28] - SG&A costs were $25.6 million, which is $7.2 million lower than the prior year due to reduced personnel costs and adjustments to incentive accruals [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The plant utilization rate was 92% during Q4, down from 95% in the same period last year, with an average utilization rate of 94% over the trailing four quarters [27] - The company shut down a 120 million gallon facility in Fairmont due to market conditions and flooding issues, which is expected to remain in cold idle for the foreseeable future [9][10] - The overall protein complex is under pressure from oversupply, but there are bright spots in the aquaculture market, with significant sales to major customers [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong exports are anticipated, with the company on pace to set a new record of approximately 1.9 billion gallons, expected to exceed that in 2025 [14] - The global market remains tight on corn, which could lead to higher prices if planting intentions do not increase [16] - The company noted that the soybean oil market is tight globally, which could benefit their corn oil products [95] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost savings and margin expansion, identifying up to $50 million in annualized cost savings, with $30 million already implemented [7][57] - A strategic shift from innovation to commercialization is underway, with a focus on rationalizing costs and improving profitability [6][54] - The company is optimistic about the potential of carbon capture initiatives, expecting significant cash flow contributions starting later this year [22][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the negative EBITDA for Q4 but highlighted a positive EBITDA of $44.7 million for the full year 2024 [11][28] - The management is closely monitoring planting intentions and believes favorable industry fundamentals are in place, despite current market pressures [16] - The company is optimistic about the future contributions from carbon capture and the potential for significant rerating of the company's valuation [24][54] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its clean sugar initiative, receiving necessary certifications and approvals [46][85] - The company anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be in the range of $20 million to $35 million, excluding carbon capture equipment [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on the $50 million cost savings initiative? - Management indicated that the initiative aims to increase overall profitability by rationalizing costs and focusing on commercializing products rather than further innovation [60][61] Question: What is the status of the aquaculture projects in South America? - Management confirmed successful penetration into the market, with significant sales achieved and ongoing interest from customers [66][68] Question: Can you discuss the timeline for carbon capture projects? - Management expects the first carbon capture contributions to begin in late Q3 or early Q4 2025, with construction of necessary infrastructure already underway [73][74] Question: How is the company addressing the sugar initiative and its market development? - Management stated that they are awaiting food safety certifications and are optimistic about future sales once these are obtained [81][84] Question: What is the expected impact of the restructuring on cash flow? - Management anticipates minimal cash impact from the restructuring, estimating charges to be under $10 million, with some potentially being non-cash [192][193] Question: How does the company view the current ethanol market and future demand? - Management believes that increased demand during the summer driving season could help improve margins, but challenges remain due to elevated stocks and production levels [204][206] Question: What is the outlook for corn oil demand and pricing? - Management is optimistic about strong demand for corn oil, particularly in renewable diesel markets, and expects pricing to improve as contracts are secured [210][212]

Part I [Business](index=6&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Business.) The company is a biorefining firm transitioning into an agricultural technology leader via high-value products and carbon capture initiatives - Green Plains is transitioning from a commodity-processing business to a value-added agricultural technology company, focusing on creating lower carbon, high-value ingredients like Ultra-High Protein, low-CI dextrose, and renewable corn oil[26](index=26&type=chunk) - The company has committed seven biorefineries to carbon capture and sequestration projects, which are expected to significantly lower their carbon intensity[28](index=28&type=chunk) - In February 2024, the company initiated a strategic review to enhance shareholder value, idling a facility and targeting approximately **$30 million in annual financial improvement**[48](index=48&type=chunk) Operating Segments Overview | Segment | Description | | :--- | :--- | | **Ethanol Production** | Includes the production, storage, and transportation of ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, and renewable corn oil at ten biorefineries. Annual production capacity is approximately 903 million gallons of ethanol, 2.2 million tons of distillers grains/Ultra-High Protein, and 310 million pounds of renewable corn oil | | **Agribusiness and Energy Services** | Includes grain procurement with ~20.2 million bushels of storage, and a commodity marketing business for ethanol, distillers grains, renewable corn oil, and other commodities | [Operating Segments](index=9&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Business.%20-%20Operating%20Segments) The company's two segments produce ethanol and co-products, supported by grain procurement and commodity marketing services - Five plants are equipped to produce **Ultra-High Protein**, a feed ingredient with over **50% protein concentration**[32](index=32&type=chunk)[62](index=62&type=chunk) - The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment includes **20.2 million bushels** of grain storage capacity and provides marketing services for all co-products[67](index=67&type=chunk)[69](index=69&type=chunk) Ethanol Plant Production Capacity (mmgy) | Plant Location | Plant Production Capacity (mmgy) | | :--- | :--- | | Central City, Nebraska | 116 | | Fairmont, Minnesota (Idled Jan 2025) | 119 | | Madison, Illinois | 90 | | Mount Vernon, Indiana | 90 | | Obion, Tennessee | 120 | | Otter Tail, Minnesota | 55 | | Shenandoah, Iowa | 82 | | Superior, Iowa | 60 | | Wood River, Nebraska | 121 | | York, Nebraska | 50 | | **Total** | **903** | [Recent Developments](index=8&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Business.%20-%20Recent%20Developments) The company advanced its technology initiatives, idled a plant, sold a terminal, and completed a partnership merger - The company achieved successful ongoing production of dextrose syrups with CST™ at its Shenandoah facility, capable of producing **60 million pounds per year**[45](index=45&type=chunk) - In January 2025, the company idled its **119 million gallon** ethanol plant in Fairmont, Minnesota due to persistent margin pressures[47](index=47&type=chunk) - On September 30, 2024, the company sold its Birmingham, Alabama terminal for **$47.5 million**, using the proceeds to repay a term loan[50](index=50&type=chunk) - On January 9, 2024, the company completed the acquisition of all publicly held common units of Green Plains Partners LP[51](index=51&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=15&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors.) The company faces significant risks from commodity price volatility, strategic execution, government regulations, and debt covenants - Operating results are highly sensitive to the spread between input costs (corn, natural gas) and output prices (ethanol, co-products)[86](index=86&type=chunk) - The company's strategic transformation involves significant capital expenditure and construction risks with no guarantee of market acceptance[98](index=98&type=chunk) - Changes to government biofuel programs like the RFS and IRA could significantly impact ethanol demand and profitability[100](index=100&type=chunk)[101](index=101&type=chunk)[105](index=105&type=chunk) - Future demand for ethanol is uncertain due to the potential widespread adoption of electric vehicles[109](index=109&type=chunk)[110](index=110&type=chunk)[111](index=111&type=chunk) - The company's debt exposes it to risks including dedication of cash flow to debt service and vulnerability to interest rate increases[121](index=121&type=chunk)[123](index=123&type=chunk) [Unresolved Staff Comments](index=29&type=section&id=Item%201B.%20Unresolved%20Staff%20Comments.) The company reports no unresolved staff comments - None[183](index=183&type=chunk) [Cybersecurity](index=29&type=section&id=Item%201C.%20Cybersecurity.) Cybersecurity risk is managed through a comprehensive program with board oversight, and no material incidents have been identified - The company's cybersecurity program is based on industry-standard frameworks (NIST, CISA) and includes external experts and a formal response plan[185](index=185&type=chunk) - The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors oversees cybersecurity, with quarterly updates from IT leadership[188](index=188&type=chunk) - As of December 31, 2024, the company has not identified any cybersecurity incident that would have a material impact on its business[191](index=191&type=chunk) [Properties](index=30&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Properties.) The company owns and leases sufficient properties for its operations, including production plants, land, and corporate offices - The company leases approximately **54,000 square feet** for its corporate headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska[193](index=193&type=chunk) - The Ethanol Production segment owns approximately **1,599 acres** and leases about **79 acres** of land for its facilities[194](index=194&type=chunk) - The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment has grain storage capacity of approximately **20.2 million bushels** at the ethanol plant sites[195](index=195&type=chunk) [Legal Proceedings](index=30&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Legal%20Proceedings.) The company is involved in ordinary course litigation not expected to have a material adverse effect on its financial position - The company is involved in ordinary course of business litigation, which is not expected to have a material adverse effect[197](index=197&type=chunk) [Mine Safety Disclosures](index=30&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Mine%20Safety%20Disclosures.) This item is not applicable to the company - Not applicable[198](index=198&type=chunk) Part II [Market for Registrant's Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities](index=31&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Market%20for%20Registrant's%20Common%20Equity,%20Related%20Stockholder%20Matters%20and%20Issuer%20Purchases%20of%20Equity%20Securities.) The company's stock trades on Nasdaq, no dividends are paid, and a share repurchase program is in place - The company's common stock trades on Nasdaq under the symbol **"GPRE"**[200](index=200&type=chunk) - The company did not pay cash dividends in 2024 and 2023 and does not anticipate paying them in the foreseeable future[202](index=202&type=chunk) - A share repurchase program of up to **$200.0 million** is authorized, with **$92.8 million** used since inception and no repurchases in 2024[203](index=203&type=chunk)[294](index=294&type=chunk) Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q4 2024) | Period | Total Number of Shares Withheld | Average Price Paid per Share | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | October 1 - October 31 | 1,429 | $12.85 | | November 1 - November 30 | 7,856 | $10.95 | | December 1 - December 31 | 847 | $10.58 | | **Total** | **10,132** | **$11.19** | [Reserved](index=32&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Reserved.) This item is reserved [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=33&type=section&id=Item%207.%20Management's%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations.) Revenues and margins declined in 2024, leading to a higher net loss, while the company continues its strategic transformation - Consolidated revenues decreased by **$836.9 million** in 2024, primarily due to lower average selling prices for key products[278](index=278&type=chunk) - Net loss increased by **$4.9 million** in 2024, driven by lower margins, partially offset by a **$30.7 million** gain on an asset sale[279](index=279&type=chunk)[255](index=255&type=chunk) - Projected capital spending for 2025 is **$20 million to $35 million**, excluding an estimated **$110 million** for carbon capture projects[292](index=292&type=chunk) Consolidated Financial Highlights (in thousands) | Metric | 2024 | 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $2,458,796 | $3,295,743 | | Gross Margin | $130,450 | $164,751 | | Operating Loss | $(47,459) | $(61,578) | | Net Loss | $(81,189) | $(76,299) | | Adjusted EBITDA | $18,715 | $45,506 | [Results of Operations](index=39&type=section&id=Item%207.%20MD&A%20-%20Results%20of%20Operations) The Ethanol Production segment's loss widened on compressed margins, while Agribusiness income was stable and corporate loss narrowed - The Ethanol Production segment's operating loss increased by **$20.8 million** in 2024, primarily due to decreased margins on ethanol production[283](index=283&type=chunk) - The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment's revenues decreased due to lower trading prices, but operating income remained flat[284](index=284&type=chunk) - The operating loss from Corporate Activities decreased by **$34.9 million**, mainly due to a gain on asset sale and reduced personnel costs[286](index=286&type=chunk) Segment Operating Income (Loss) (in thousands) | Segment | 2024 | 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol production | $(40,758) | $(19,958) | | Agribusiness and energy services | $28,156 | $28,100 | | Corporate activities | $(34,857) | $(69,720) | | **Total Operating Loss** | **$(47,459)** | **$(61,578)** | [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=45&type=section&id=Item%207.%20MD&A%20-%20Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company maintains sufficient liquidity through cash and credit facilities, despite negative operating cash flow in 2024 - Capital expenditures in 2024 were **$95.1 million**, primarily for the clean sugar expansion project at Shenandoah[292](index=292&type=chunk) - The company was in compliance with its debt covenants at December 31, 2024, and anticipates maintaining compliance[296](index=296&type=chunk) Liquidity Position as of Dec 31, 2024 (in millions) | Item | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | Cash and cash equivalents | $173.0 | | Restricted cash | $36.4 | | Available under revolving credit | $200.7 | Cash Flow Summary (in millions) | Cash Flow | 2024 | 2023 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash from (used in) operating activities | $(30.0) | $56.3 | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(62.1) | $(106.9) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(77.4) | $(71.0) | [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=47&type=section&id=Item%207A.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk.) The company is exposed to market risks from commodity prices and interest rates, which it manages through derivative instruments - The company has **$140.8 million** in variable-rate debt; a **10%** increase in interest rates would increase annual interest cost by approximately **$1.4 million**[310](index=310&type=chunk) - The business is highly sensitive to commodity price risk and uses forward contracts and derivatives to reduce price fluctuation exposure[312](index=312&type=chunk)[314](index=314&type=chunk) Net Income Effect of a Hypothetical 10% Change in Commodity Prices (in thousands) | Commodity | Estimated Net Income Effect | | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol | $118,410 | | Corn | $104,701 | | Distillers grains | $24,266 | | Renewable corn oil | $9,869 | | Natural gas | $5,352 | [Financial Statements and Supplementary Data](index=49&type=section&id=Item%208.%20Financial%20Statements%20and%20Supplementary%20Data.) This section references the consolidated financial statements and notes listed in Part IV, Item 15 of the report - The required consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes are listed in Part IV, Item 15[321](index=321&type=chunk) [Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure](index=49&type=section&id=Item%209.%20Changes%20in%20and%20Disagreements%20With%20Accountants%20on%20Accounting%20and%20Financial%20Disclosure.) The company reports no changes in or disagreements with its accountants - None[322](index=322&type=chunk) [Controls and Procedures](index=49&type=section&id=Item%209A.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures.) Management concluded that disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting were effective as of year-end 2024 - Management concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of December 31, 2024[324](index=324&type=chunk) - Management concluded that the company's internal control over financial reporting was **effective** as of December 31, 2024[326](index=326&type=chunk) - The effectiveness of the company's internal control over financial reporting has been audited by KPMG LLP, which issued an **unqualified opinion**[327](index=327&type=chunk)[330](index=330&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=51&type=section&id=Item%209B.%20Other%20Information.) No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during the year - No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a "Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" or "non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" during the year ended December 31, 2024[336](index=336&type=chunk) [Disclosure Regarding Foreign Jurisdictions that Prevent Inspections](index=51&type=section&id=Item%209C.%20Disclosure%20Regarding%20Foreign%20Jurisdictions%20that%20Prevent%20Inspections.) This item is not applicable to the company - Not applicable[337](index=337&type=chunk) Part III [Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance](index=51&type=section&id=Item%2010.%20Directors,%20Executive%20Officers%20and%20Corporate%20Governance.) Required information on directors, officers, and governance is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement - Information regarding directors, executive officers, and corporate governance is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement[339](index=339&type=chunk) [Executive Compensation](index=51&type=section&id=Item%2011.%20Executive%20Compensation.) Required information on executive compensation is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement - Information regarding executive compensation is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement[341](index=341&type=chunk) [Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters](index=51&type=section&id=Item%2012.%20Security%20Ownership%20of%20Certain%20Beneficial%20Owners%20and%20Management%20and%20Related%20Stockholder%20Matters.) Required information on security ownership is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement - Information regarding security ownership is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement[342](index=342&type=chunk) [Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence](index=51&type=section&id=Item%2013.%20Certain%20Relationships%20and%20Related%20Transactions,%20and%20Director%20Independence.) Required information on related transactions and director independence is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement - Information regarding related transactions and director independence is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement[343](index=343&type=chunk) [Principal Accounting Fees and Services](index=51&type=section&id=Item%2014.%20Principal%20Accounting%20Fees%20and%20Services.) Required information on accounting fees and services is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement - Information regarding principal accounting fees and services is incorporated by reference from the 2025 Proxy Statement[344](index=344&type=chunk) Part IV [Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules](index=52&type=section&id=Item%2015.%20Exhibits,%20Financial%20Statement%20Schedules.) This section lists the consolidated financial statements, notes, and exhibits filed as part of the annual report - This item lists the consolidated financial statements and exhibits filed with the Form 10-K[347](index=347&type=chunk)[349](index=349&type=chunk) [Form 10-K Summary](index=56&type=section&id=Item%2016.%20Form%2010-K%20Summary.) The company reports no Form 10-K summary - None[356](index=356&type=chunk)

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Green Plains reported a net loss of $54.9 million or $0.86 per share for Q4 2024, compared to a net income of $7.2 million or $0.12 per share in the same period of 2023 [8][17] - Consolidated revenues for Q4 were $584 million, approximately 18% lower than the same period a year ago, primarily due to lower market prices for ethanol, dry distillers grains, and renewable corn oil [16] - EBITDA for Q4 was negative $18.9 million, down from $44.7 million in the prior year period [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company executed $30 million of cost improvements, with a target of $50 million in annualized cost savings identified [5][6] - The Fairmont facility, with a capacity of 120 million gallons, was shut down due to market conditions and flooding issues, impacting overall production [7] - Operating rates at plants improved, achieving 92% in Q4, with expectations to continue operating in the mid-90s range [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong exports are anticipated, with a record of approximately 1.9 billion gallons expected for the year, and projections for 2025 to exceed that [9] - The U.S. corn market remains tight, with planting intentions closely monitored to avoid higher corn prices in the future [10] - The protein complex is under pressure from oversupply due to expanded domestic soy crushing capacity, but there are bright spots in aquaculture sales [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from innovation to commercialization, focusing on cost rationalization and margin expansion [5][6] - Carbon capture initiatives are on track, with expectations to begin capturing biogenic CO2 in the second half of the year [13][21] - The company believes the value of its Nebraska assets is not reflected in its current share price, with carbon earnings expected to transform its earnings power [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over negative EBITDA for Q4 but noted a positive EBITDA of $44.7 million for the full year [8][17] - The management is optimistic about the potential for improved margins and profitability as the market conditions evolve and carbon capture initiatives are implemented [21][24] - The company is focused on reducing SG&A costs and simplifying its structure to enhance operational efficiency [31] Other Important Information - The company reached a settlement with the IRS regarding R&D tax credits, impacting its tax position for the year [18] - Capital expenditures for Q4 were allocated across various initiatives, with a total of $95 million incurred year-to-date [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Cost initiatives and profitability impact - Management indicated that the $50 million cost savings would enhance overall profitability, transitioning focus from innovation to commercialization [35][36] Question: Aquaculture market penetration - Management confirmed successful sales in aquaculture, with significant quantities sold and a focus on expanding market presence [38][39] Question: Carbon capture project timeline - Management expects the carbon capture project to be operational by late Q3 or early Q4, with construction underway [42][43] Question: Sugar market development - Management is optimistic about customer interest in sugar products, awaiting food safety certification to ramp up production [49][50] Question: Corn oil pricing expectations - Management anticipates corn oil to trade at a premium to soybean oil, reflecting market conditions [60][61] Question: 45Z tax credit monetization - Management expressed confidence in finding buyers for tax credits and offsets, with a robust market for these products [81][82]

Company Performance - Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) reported a quarterly loss of $0.86 per share, significantly worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.28, and compared to earnings of $0.12 per share a year ago [1] - The earnings surprise for this quarter was -207.14%, following a previous quarter where the company exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.35 per share against an estimate of $0.11, resulting in a surprise of 218.18% [2] - The company posted revenues of $584.02 million for the quarter ended December 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.59%, and down from $712.39 million in the same quarter last year [3] Stock Performance and Outlook - Green Plains shares have declined approximately 12.6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.4% [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.27 on revenues of $651.6 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.07 on revenues of $2.75 billion [8] Industry Context - The Chemical - Specialty industry, to which Green Plains belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 20% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [9] - The performance of Green Plains may also be influenced by the overall outlook for the industry, as historical data shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [9]

Financial Performance - Net loss attributable to Green Plains for Q4 2024 was $54.9 million, or $(0.86) per diluted share, compared to a net income of $7.2 million, or $0.12 per diluted share in Q4 2023[1]. - Revenues for Q4 2024 decreased to $584.0 million, down 18.0% from $712.4 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to lower selling prices and volumes of ethanol and distillers grains[5]. - The consolidated ethanol crush margin for Q4 2024 was $(15.5) million, a significant decline from $53.0 million in Q4 2023[4]. - EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $(18.9) million, a decrease of $63.6 million compared to $44.7 million in Q4 2023[6]. - Total revenues for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, were $2,458,796 thousand, a decline of 25.4% from $3,295,743 thousand in 2023[30]. - For the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, Green Plains Inc. reported a net loss of $81.189 million, compared to a net loss of $76.299 million in 2023, indicating a decline in performance[33]. - The company's EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $47.646 million, down from $54.031 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 11.4% year-over-year[35]. - The company incurred net payments of $61.697 million on long-term debt during the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to $4.838 million in 2023, indicating increased debt repayment efforts[33]. - Green Plains Inc. reported a significant loss on the sale of assets, netting a loss of $30.723 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, compared to a loss of $5.265 million in 2023[35]. - The company’s adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $18.715 million, down from $45.506 million in 2023, showing a substantial decline[35]. Operational Highlights - The company sold 209.5 million gallons of ethanol in Q4 2024, a slight decrease from 215.7 million gallons in Q4 2023[4]. - Ethanol production for Q4 2024 was 209,540 gallons, a decrease of 2.9% compared to 215,717 gallons in Q4 2023[16]. - Corn consumed in Q4 2024 was 71,221 bushels, a decrease of 4.0% from 74,152 bushels in Q4 2023[16]. - Gross margin for ethanol production in Q4 2024 was $(10.4) million, compared to $59.0 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 91.7% decline[11]. - Adjusted ethanol production operating loss for Q4 2024 was $19,870 thousand, down from a profit of $46,309 thousand in Q4 2023[18]. - The company completed the acquisition of the remaining interest in Green Plains Partners LP on January 9, 2024, streamlining operations and improving efficiencies[8]. Strategic Initiatives - Green Plains has initiated a corporate reorganization and cost reduction initiative targeting annual savings of up to $50 million, with $30 million in improvements already implemented[2]. - The 'Advantage Nebraska' strategy is on track, with carbon capture operations expected to begin in the second half of 2025, potentially contributing significantly to future earnings[2]. - The company expects that combining cost reduction initiatives with carbon earnings could achieve a combined $180 million annualized contribution to future earnings[2]. Cash and Debt Management - Total cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were $209.4 million, with total debt outstanding at $575.4 million[21]. - The company had $200.7 million available under a committed revolving credit facility as of December 31, 2024[21]. - The total cash and cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period was $209.395 million, a decrease from $378.762 million at the beginning of the period[33]. - The net change in cash and cash equivalents, and restricted cash for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was a decrease of $169.367 million, compared to a decrease of $121.514 million in 2023[33]. - Interest expense for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, was $33.095 million, a decrease from $37.703 million in 2023, indicating a reduction in borrowing costs[35]. Asset Management - The company reported a decrease in total assets from $1,939,322 thousand in 2023 to $1,782,174 thousand in 2024[28].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on February 7, 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -333.3% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $625.2 million, down 12.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 170% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Green Plains is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -41.49% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a strong predictor for positive readings [7][8]. - Green Plains currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Green Plains exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.35 per share against an estimate of $0.11, resulting in a surprise of +218.18% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13]. Market Context - The performance of Green Plains may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [14]. - Despite not appearing as a compelling earnings-beat candidate, other market factors should be considered when evaluating the stock [16]. Industry Comparison - Linde (LIN), another player in the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $3.93 for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year change of +9.5% [17]. - Linde's revenues are projected at $8.36 billion, up 0.7% from the previous year, with a recent EPS estimate revision of 1.4% down [18].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $83.3 million in EBITDA for Q3 2024, which includes a $30.7 million gain from the sale of the Birmingham Unit Train Terminal. Normal operations EBITDA was $53 million, and the standalone consolidated crush margin was $58 million [6][19]. - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2024 were $658.7 million, down $234 million or approximately 26% year-over-year, primarily due to lower prices for ethanol, dry distillers grains, and renewable corn oil [16][19]. - Net income attributable to the company was $48.2 million or $0.69 per diluted share, compared to $22.3 million or $0.35 per diluted share in Q3 2023 [18][19]. - The plant utilization rate was 97% during the quarter, up from 94% in the same period last year [17]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ethanol operating rates reached nearly 97%, with record ultra-high protein production and strong corn oil yield maintained [9][11]. - The company experienced strong demand for ethanol exports, with totals through August reaching 1.2 billion gallons, on track for a record year of 1.8 to 1.9 billion gallons [12]. - Record production of ultra-high protein was achieved during Q3, with ongoing efforts to maximize efficiency and flexibility in production [32][34]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted favorable natural gas and corn prices, contributing to solid margins during the quarter, despite some rapid compression late in the quarter [11][36]. - The corn basis in Q3 was at least $0.50 a bushel better than the prior three years, aiding the margin structure for the industry [52]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on decarbonizing its operations in Nebraska and anticipates significant cash flows from carbon credits starting in the second half of 2025 [28][30]. - The ongoing startup of the Clean Sugar Technology project is a key focus, with expectations for commercial sales in Q4 2024 [13][14]. - The strategic review process is ongoing, with the Board of Directors working with financial advisors to explore options for enhancing shareholder value [15]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to improve operational performance and margins, despite recent volatility in the industry [11][41]. - The management team highlighted the importance of upcoming milestones in carbon capture and the potential for increased interest in carbon credits [40][66]. - The company remains optimistic about the demand for low-carbon products and the potential for strong margins in 2025 [74]. Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of the Birmingham Unit Train Terminal, using proceeds to retire high-priced debt, which is expected to enhance efficiency [15]. - Capital expenditures for the year are anticipated to be in the range of $90 million to $100 million, excluding carbon capture equipment financing [24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the market need to see for better valuation? - Management indicated that milestones in carbon projects will be critical for increasing market interest and valuation [40]. Question: How is the clean sugar technology progressing? - The company is receiving positive feedback from North American customers and is working towards food-grade certification [55]. Question: What is the outlook for ethanol exports next year? - Management expects continued robust demand for ethanol exports, particularly as global blend rates increase [74]. Question: How are protein margins expected to evolve? - Management noted that while margins are currently lower than hoped, demand remains strong, and they anticipate stabilization in spreads [80].