Financial Performance - Green Plains reported net income attributable of $11.9 million, or $0.17 EPS[8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $52.6 million[8] - The company had $211.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $325.0 million available under a committed credit facility[8] - Consolidated ethanol crush margin was $59.6 million, including $26.5 million from 45Z production tax credits[8] Production and Operations - Ethanol production reached 197.3 million gallons, operating at 101% of stated capacity (excluding Fairmont)[8] - Production included 417 thousand tons of distillers grains, 71 thousand tons of Ultra-High Protein, and 72.3 million pounds of renewable corn oil[8] - The company processed 66.6 million bushels of corn[8] - Nine operating ethanol plants achieved a strong utilization rate of 101%[9] Strategic Initiatives and Updates - The company expects $15 - $25 million of 45Z production tax credit monetization value for the fourth quarter[9] - Carbon capture is fully operational at the York, Nebraska facility, with Central City and Wood River, Nebraska systems ramping up[9, 12] - The sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant was completed, with proceeds used to repay $130.7 million in junior mezzanine debt[9] - A $200 million convertible note exchange and subscription transaction was successfully completed to enhance financial flexibility[9] Selected Operating Data Comparison (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024) - Ethanol production decreased from 220,299 thousand gallons in 2024 to 197,264 thousand gallons in 2025[13] - Distillers grains production decreased from 489 thousand tons in 2024 to 417 thousand tons in 2025[13] - Renewable corn oil production decreased from 77,074 thousand pounds in 2024 to 72,345 thousand pounds in 2025[13]

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Financial Performance - Net income attributable to Green Plains was $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, a decrease from $48.2 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in Q3 2024[2] - Revenues decreased by $150.2 million to $508.5 million in Q3 2025, compared to $658.7 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to lower sales volumes and prices[8] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $33.9 million, down from $56.1 million in Q3 2024[34] - Net loss for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $133.9 million, compared to a loss of $26.5 million in the same period of 2024[36] - Cash flows from operating activities provided $43.5 million in Q3 2025, compared to a use of $3.0 million in Q3 2024[36] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of $0.17 for Q3 2025, compared to $0.75 for Q3 2024[34] Production and Sales - Ethanol production segment sold 197.3 million gallons in Q3 2025, down from 220.3 million gallons in Q3 2024, while the consolidated ethanol crush margin increased to $59.6 million from $58.3 million[7] - Ethanol production decreased by 10.5% year-over-year to 197,264 gallons for the three months ended September 30, 2025, and by 7.9% to 586,163 gallons for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[19] - The consolidated ethanol crush margin increased to $59.608 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $58.291 million in the same period of 2024[21] - The company achieved strong utilization rates of 101% across its nine operating ethanol plants during the quarter[5] Financial Position - Total cash and cash equivalents, along with restricted cash, amounted to $211.6 million as of September 30, 2025, with total corporate liquidity at $136.7 million[23] - Total debt outstanding was $353.4 million as of September 30, 2025, including $45.0 million under working capital revolvers[23] - Current assets decreased to $446.591 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $569.032 million at the end of 2024[31] - Total assets decreased to $1.532 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1.782 billion at the end of 2024[31] Costs and Expenses - Total costs and expenses for Q3 2025 were $474.6 million, a decrease of 21.3% from $602.7 million in Q3 2024[34] - Interest expense increased significantly to $47.8 million in Q3 2025 from $10.1 million in Q3 2024[38] - Interest expense increased by $37.7 million to $45.5 million in Q3 2025, primarily due to $35.7 million related to refinancing and extinguishment of junior mezzanine notes[9] Future Outlook - The company expects to generate $40 to $50 million of 45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, net of discounts and applicable operating expenses[3] - The company anticipates future growth and operational improvements despite current market challenges[27] Carbon Capture Initiatives - Carbon capture facilities in York, Central City, and Wood River, Nebraska are operational, enhancing the carbon intensity advantage for Nebraska-based plants[11] - The company is actively deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions at three facilities this year[26] Adjusted Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $52.6 million, slightly down from $53.3 million in Q3 2024[5] - The adjusted ethanol production operating income was $54.763 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $56.684 million in the same period of 2024[21] - A tax credit monetization agreement was executed, advancing low-carbon ethanol value creation[5] Asset Sales - The sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant was completed for $170 million, with proceeds used to fully repay $130.7 million in junior mezzanine debt[6]

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Core Points - Green Plains Inc. will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, before the market opens, followed by a conference call at 9 a.m. Eastern time to discuss performance and outlook [1][2] - The company is a leading biorefining firm focused on producing renewable fuels and sustainable ingredients, utilizing agricultural and fermentation expertise to create low-carbon energy [3] - Green Plains is actively implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions at three facilities, aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of its products [3] Financial Transactions - Green Plains has completed a $200 million convertible note exchange, converting $170 million of its existing 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 into newly issued 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due November 2030 [6][7] Carbon Capture Initiatives - The company has successfully started its carbon capture system at the York facility, which is now operational and delivering significant volumes of biogenic carbon dioxide for permanent sequestration [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Green Plains is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -125.7%. Revenues are projected to be $548.25 million, down 16.8% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model shows that the Most Accurate Estimate for Green Plains is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +100.00%. This suggests a bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Green Plains was expected to post a loss of $0.28 per share but actually reported a loss of -$0.41, resulting in a surprise of -46.43%. Over the last four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [12][13]. Investment Considerations - While Green Plains is seen as a potential earnings-beat candidate, investors are advised to consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results [14][16].

Core Insights - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher" rather than traditional "buying low and selling high" strategies [1] - Identifying the right entry point for fast-moving stocks can be challenging, as they may lose momentum if future growth does not justify their high valuations [2] - Investing in bargain stocks that exhibit recent price momentum can be a safer strategy [3] Company Analysis: Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) - GPRE has shown a price increase of 0.5% over the past four weeks, indicating growing investor interest [4] - The stock has gained 13.6% over the past 12 weeks, demonstrating its ability to deliver positive returns over a longer timeframe [5] - GPRE has a beta of 1.26, suggesting it moves 26% higher than the market in either direction, indicating fast-paced momentum [5] - The stock has a Momentum Score of B, suggesting it is a favorable time to invest [6] - GPRE has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to upward revisions in earnings estimates, which attract more investor interest [7] - The stock is trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.27, indicating it is relatively cheap at 27 cents for each dollar of sales [7] - GPRE is positioned for significant growth potential, supported by its favorable valuation and momentum characteristics [8]

Group 1 - Green Plains (NASDAQ:GPRE) has commenced carbon capture and storage (CCS) operations at its facility in York, Nebraska, representing a significant advancement in its carbon capture capabilities [5] - The CCS equipment at the York facility is now fully operational, indicating the company's commitment to expanding its environmental sustainability initiatives [5]

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Core Insights - Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has completed the sale of its ethanol plant in Rives, TN, to POET Biorefining for a total cash consideration of $190 million, which includes $20 million of working capital to be finalized post-closing [1][8] - The sale is part of a strategic review process initiated in February 2024, aimed at improving operational execution and capital discipline [2] - Proceeds from the sale will be used to pay off junior mezzanine debt due in 2026, thereby strengthening the company's balance sheet and enhancing liquidity [2][8] Financial Impact - The transaction enhances financial flexibility, allowing Green Plains to pursue other strategic opportunities and drive carbon reduction initiatives [3][8] - GPRE's shares have experienced a decline of 32% over the past year, contrasting with a 6.3% decline in the industry [4] Market Position - GPRE currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), while other companies in the Basic Materials sector, such as Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Methanex Corporation (MEOH), have higher rankings [6] - AEM's current-year earnings estimate is $7.11 per share, with a significant share price increase of 116.5% over the past year [7] - MEOH's earnings estimate stands at $3.72 per share, also showing consistent earnings performance [7]