Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - GPRE is expected to post a quarterly loss of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +26.3%, while revenues are projected to be $592.3 million, down 4.3% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 44.44% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that recent analyst revisions may provide more accurate predictions [8]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3, with a historical success rate of nearly 70% for such combinations [10]. Current Analyst Sentiment - For GPRE, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -9.09%, indicating a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, GPRE was expected to post a loss of $0.51 per share but actually reported a loss of -$0.88, resulting in a surprise of -72.55% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, GPRE has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [14]. Conclusion - GPRE does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of its earnings release [17].

[PART I – FINANCIAL INFORMATION](index=5&type=section&id=PART%20I%20%E2%80%93%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION) [Financial Statements](index=5&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements) For Q1 2025, Green Plains reported an increased net loss of $72.9 million, driven by a wider operating loss and a decrease in total assets and equity [Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=5&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of March 31, 2025, total assets decreased to $1.67 billion, primarily due to reduced cash, while liabilities and equity also declined Consolidated Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $98,610 | $173,041 | | Total current assets | $450,310 | $569,032 | | Total assets | $1,666,572 | $1,782,174 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Total current liabilities | $325,735 | $385,687 | | Total liabilities | $859,384 | $907,637 | | Total stockholders' equity | $807,188 | $874,537 | [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=6&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) Q1 2025 revenues slightly increased to $601.5 million, but operating loss widened to $62.3 million, leading to a net loss of $72.9 million Q1 Statement of Operations Summary (in thousands, except per share amounts) | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $601,515 | $597,214 | | Total costs and expenses | $663,775 | $642,103 | | Operating loss | $(62,260) | $(44,889) | | Net loss attributable to Green Plains | $(72,906) | $(51,412) | | Net loss per share (basic and diluted) | $(1.14) | $(0.81) | [Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Loss](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Comprehensive%20Income%20%28Loss%29) Q1 2025 comprehensive loss attributable to Green Plains was $75.2 million, including a net loss and unrealized derivative losses Q1 Comprehensive Loss (in thousands) | Item | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net loss | $(72,641) | $(51,122) | | Total other comprehensive loss, net of tax | $(2,270) | $(738) | | Comprehensive loss attributable to Green Plains | $(75,176) | $(52,150) | [Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=8&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) Q1 2025 net cash used in operations was $55.0 million, resulting in an $82.8 million net decrease in cash and equivalents Q1 Cash Flow Summary (in thousands) | Cash Flow Category | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash used in operating activities | $(55,041) | $(50,599) | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(20,710) | $(30,203) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(7,041) | $(20,578) | | Net change in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash | $(82,792) | $(101,380) | [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=10&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Notes detail accounting policies, segment performance, the Green Plains Partners LP merger, Q1 2025 restructuring costs, and subsequent debt amendments - The company operates in two segments: (1) ethanol production (ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein, renewable corn oil) and (2) agribusiness and energy services (grain handling, commodity marketing, and trading)[40](index=40&type=chunk) - In Q1 2025, Customer A, B, and C represented approximately **13%**, **12%**, and **10%** of total revenues, respectively, all within the ethanol production segment[57](index=57&type=chunk) - On January 9, 2024, the company acquired all publicly held common units of Green Plains Partners LP not already owned. The transaction was accounted for as an equity transaction with no gain or loss recognized in operations[35](index=35&type=chunk)[58](index=58&type=chunk)[60](index=60&type=chunk) - The company incurred **$16.6 million** in restructuring costs during Q1 2025, primarily related to cost reduction initiatives and the CEO's departure. These costs were allocated across cost of goods sold, SG&A, and other expenses[78](index=78&type=chunk)[80](index=80&type=chunk) - As of March 31, 2025, total long-term debt was **$432.2 million**, with major components including **$230.0 million** in convertible notes and **$125.0 million** in junior secured mezzanine notes[96](index=96&type=chunk) - Subsequent to the quarter end, on May 7, 2025, the company amended its **$125 million** junior notes to extend the maturity to May 15, 2026, and entered into a new **$30 million** secured revolving credit facility with Ancora Alternatives LLC maturing July 30, 2025[137](index=137&type=chunk)[138](index=138&type=chunk) [Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=31&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management%27s%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses the company's transformation, Q1 2025 restructuring, increased net loss, decreased adjusted EBITDA, and upcoming liquidity challenges [Overview and Recent Developments](index=34&type=section&id=Overview%20and%20Recent%20Developments) The company is transitioning to a biorefining model, with Q1 2025 marked by CEO transition, reorganization, facility idling, and new financing - The company is executing a transformation from a commodity-processor to a value-added agricultural technology company, focusing on Ultra-High Protein, low-CI dextrose, and renewable corn oil[144](index=144&type=chunk) - A corporate reorganization and cost reduction initiative was launched in early 2025, targeting approximately **$45 million** in annual financial improvements. This resulted in one-time restructuring costs of **$16.6 million** in Q1 2025[159](index=159&type=chunk) - Leadership transition occurred with the departure of CEO Todd Becker on March 1, 2025, and the appointment of Michelle Mapes as Interim Principal Executive Officer[157](index=157&type=chunk) - The company idled its **119 million gallon** ethanol plant in Fairmont, MN, and its Clean Sugar Technology (CST™) facility in Shenandoah, IA, to optimize returns amid margin pressures[161](index=161&type=chunk)[162](index=162&type=chunk) - On May 7, 2025, the company amended its **$125 million** junior notes to extend the maturity to May 2026 and entered into a new **$30 million** revolving credit facility with Ancora Alternatives LLC[152](index=152&type=chunk)[153](index=153&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=37&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) Q1 2025 revenues slightly increased, but operating loss widened to $62.3 million due to restructuring charges and weaker margins across segments Segment Operating Income (Loss) (in thousands) | Segment | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | % Variance | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol production | $(39,550) | $(33,653) | 17.5% | | Agribusiness and energy services | $1,533 | $6,004 | (74.5)% | | Corporate activities | $(24,243) | $(17,240) | 40.6% | | **Total Operating Loss** | **$(62,260)** | **$(44,889)** | **38.7%** | Reconciliation to Adjusted EBITDA (in thousands) | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | % Variance | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net loss | $(72,641) | $(51,122) | 42.1% | | EBITDA | $(41,506) | $(21,520) | 92.9% | | Restructuring costs | $16,587 | $— | 100.0% | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | **$(24,184)** | **$(21,475)** | **12.6%** | - Ethanol production segment revenues decreased by **$7.9 million** due to lower sales volumes for ethanol, distillers grains, and renewable corn oil, which was partially offset by higher average selling prices for ethanol[198](index=198&type=chunk) - Corporate activities operating loss increased by **$7.0 million**, primarily due to increased personnel costs from restructuring, including **$10.3 million** in severance related to the CEO's departure[190](index=190&type=chunk)[203](index=203&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=44&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) The company faces significant liquidity challenges with $125.0 million debt maturing in May 2026, requiring substantial additional funding - The company faces a significant liquidity challenge, stating it will require "substantial additional liquidity" to satisfy the **$125.0 million** debt maturing on May 15, 2026[207](index=207&type=chunk) - Total corporate liquidity was **$48.6 million** as of March 31, 2025, and increased to **$89.2 million** as of May 7, 2025, following asset sales and a new **$30 million** credit facility[206](index=206&type=chunk) - Capital spending for the remainder of 2025 is expected to be approximately **$20.0 million**, excluding an estimated **$110 million** for carbon capture projects to be funded via project financing[210](index=210&type=chunk) - The company was in compliance with its debt covenants as of March 31, 2025, and anticipates maintaining compliance for the next twelve months[214](index=214&type=chunk) [Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=44&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) The company is exposed to interest rate and significant commodity price risks, with ethanol and corn price changes having the largest impact - The company has **$137.4 million** in variable-rate debt. A **10%** increase in interest rates would increase annual interest costs by approximately **$1.4 million**[229](index=229&type=chunk) Commodity Price Risk Sensitivity (Net Income Effect of a 10% Price Change) | Commodity | Estimated Net Income Effect (in thousands) | | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol | $93,627 | | Corn | $81,249 | | Distillers grains | $19,360 | | Renewable corn oil | $8,864 | | Natural gas | $3,425 | [Controls and Procedures](index=46&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of March 31, 2025, with no material changes to internal controls - Management concluded that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were **effective** as of March 31, 2025[240](index=240&type=chunk) - No material changes were made to the company's internal control over financial reporting during the first quarter of 2025[241](index=241&type=chunk) [PART II – OTHER INFORMATION](index=47&type=section&id=PART%20II%20%E2%80%93%20OTHER%20INFORMATION) [Legal Proceedings](index=47&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) The company is involved in ordinary course litigation, not expecting a material adverse effect on its financial position or results - The company does not believe any pending litigation will have a material adverse effect on its financial position, results of operations or cash flows[244](index=244&type=chunk) [Risk Factors](index=47&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) This section highlights counterparty credit risk, potential adverse effects from trade agreement changes, and significant commodity price volatility - The company is exposed to credit risk from customers and counterparties, where non-performance could adversely impact liquidity[246](index=246&type=chunk) - A potential withdrawal from or material modification of international trade agreements could materially harm the business, with specific mention of the Trump administration's tariff policies and the risk of retaliatory measures[247](index=247&type=chunk) - Operating results are highly sensitive to volatile commodity prices, including corn, ethanol, distillers grains, natural gas, Ultra-High Protein, and renewable corn oil[248](index=248&type=chunk)[249](index=249&type=chunk)[250](index=250&type=chunk) [Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=51&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) In Q1 2025, the company withheld 235,079 shares for tax obligations on vested stock awards and did not repurchase any shares - The company withheld **235,079 shares** in Q1 2025 to cover tax obligations for employees on vested stock awards[258](index=258&type=chunk) - No shares were repurchased under the company's stock repurchase program during the first quarter of 2025[258](index=258&type=chunk) [Other Information](index=52&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement in Q1 2025 - No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement in Q1 2025[261](index=261&type=chunk) [Exhibits](index=52&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section lists exhibits filed with the 10-Q report, including various agreements, credit facility amendments, and officer certifications

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of $72.9 million or a loss of $1.14 per share for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $51.4 million or $0.81 per share in Q1 2024 [23] - Revenue for the quarter was $601.5 million, up 0.7% year over year [24] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding restructuring charges was a loss of $24.2 million, compared to a negative $21.5 million in Q1 last year [26] - SG&A totaled $42.9 million, an increase of $11.1 million from the prior year due to restructuring and severance charges [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record 100% utilization rate across its nine operating plants, demonstrating strong asset performance [25] - The anticipated consolidated SG&A run rate is expected to decline from $118 million in 2024 to approximately $93 million by year-end 2025 [8][27] - The company has achieved $30 million in annualized cost savings and expects an additional $15 million from a recently announced ethanol marketing partnership [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. ethanol exports are expected to surpass last year's record of nearly 2 billion gallons in 2025 [18] - Ethanol margins have strengthened heading into Q2 and Q3, supported by firmer corn oil fundamentals and anticipated increases in renewable volume obligations [18] - Current ethanol inventory levels are at 25 million barrels, with expectations to drop towards 23 million as the driving season begins [81] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to sustained profitability through disciplined execution and operational excellence [5][6] - A strategic marketing partnership with EcoEnergy has been established to enhance scale and optimize transportation and marketing economics [19] - The company is pausing its clean sugar technology initiative to maximize ethanol production and improve profitability at the Shenandoah site [15][108] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that performance has not met expectations but is committed to improving operational efficiency and profitability [5] - The company is optimistic about the carbon platform and is actively engaged in monetizing carbon credits [31][33] - Management expects to achieve positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year based on current market conditions and actions taken [34] Other Important Information - The company has executed a $30 million line of credit to enhance liquidity and is actively pursuing non-core asset sales [28][71] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $16.7 million, with expectations of approximately $20 million for the remainder of 2025 [29] - The company is undergoing a strategic review, considering various paths including a potential sale or asset divestitures [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the hedging framework and its reestablishment? - Management emphasized that hedging is a good practice for managing risk and is based on market opportunities, with a systematic approach supported by analytics [39][41] Question: What is the status of the CEO search? - The process is ongoing, nearing final stages, with a focus on candidates who can bring relevant industry experience [44] Question: Can you provide updates on carbon capture construction timelines? - Construction is on track for early Q4 startup, with no anticipated major delays [48] Question: What are the impacts of potential tariffs on product exports? - Currently, there has been no adverse impact from tariffs, and the company is optimistic about potential trade opportunities [49][52] Question: How is the company addressing the protein market dynamics? - The domestic protein market is expected to be flat, but the company is focusing on higher-margin segments like pet food and aqua feed [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of $72.9 million or a loss of $1.14 per share for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $51.4 million or $0.81 per share in Q1 2024 [23] - Revenue for the quarter was $601.5 million, up 0.7% year over year [24] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding restructuring charges was a loss of $24.2 million, compared to a negative $21.5 million in Q1 last year [26] - SG&A totaled $42.9 million, an increase of $11.1 million from the prior year due to restructuring and severance charges [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record 100% utilization rate across its nine operating plants, demonstrating strong asset performance [25] - The anticipated consolidated SG&A run rate is expected to decline from $118 million in 2024 to approximately $93 million by year-end 2025 [8][27] - The company has achieved $30 million in annualized cost savings and expects to reach a total of $50 million in cost reductions [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. ethanol exports are expected to surpass last year's record of nearly 2 billion gallons in 2025 [18] - Ethanol market fundamentals showed typical seasonal weakness in Q1, but margins have strengthened heading into Q2 and Q3 [17] - Current ethanol inventory levels are at 25 million barrels, with expectations to drop towards 23 million as the driving season begins [81] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to sustained profitability and has executed a zero-based approach to its cost structure [5][6] - A strategic marketing partnership with EcoEnergy has been established to enhance scale and optimize transportation and marketing economics [19] - The company is pausing its clean sugar technology initiative to maximize ethanol production and improve operational efficiency [15][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year based on current market conditions and actions taken [34] - The carbon strategy remains on track, with construction of carbon compression infrastructure advancing as planned [30] - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in the protein business but remains committed to executing the strategy [91] Other Important Information - The company has strengthened its liquidity position, with $126.6 million in cash equivalents and restricted cash at quarter-end [28] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $16.7 million, with expectations for the remainder of 2025 to be around $20 million [29] - The company is actively engaged in a strategic review, considering various paths including a company sale or asset divestitures [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insight into the hedging framework and its reestablishment? - Management emphasized that hedging is a good practice for managing risk and that they are locking in margins when market opportunities arise [39][41] Question: What is the status of the CEO search? - The process is ongoing, nearing final stages, with a focus on candidates who can bring relevant industry experience [44] Question: Can you provide updates on carbon capture construction timelines? - Construction is on track for early Q4 startup, with no major delays anticipated [48] Question: What are the potential impacts of tariffs on product exports? - Currently, there has been no adverse impact from tariffs, but the situation remains unpredictable [49][52] Question: How is the company addressing the protein market dynamics? - The domestic protein market is expected to be flat, but the company is focusing on higher-margin segments like pet food and aquaculture [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of $72.9 million or a loss of $1.14 per share for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $51.4 million or $0.81 per share in Q1 2024 [23][24] - Revenue for the quarter was $601.5 million, up 0.7% year over year [24] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding restructuring charges was a loss of $24.2 million, compared to a negative $21.5 million in Q1 last year [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record 100% utilization rate across its nine operating plants, demonstrating strong asset performance [25] - The anticipated decline in SG&A run rate is from $118 million in 2024 to an estimated $93 million annualized by year-end [7][26] - The company achieved $30 million in annualized cost savings and an additional $15 million from a new ethanol marketing partnership [6][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. ethanol exports are expected to surpass last year's record of nearly 2 billion gallons in 2025 [17] - Ethanol margins have strengthened heading into Q2 and Q3, supported by firmer corn oil fundamentals and anticipated increases in renewable volume obligations [17][19] - Current ethanol inventory levels are at 25 million barrels, with expectations to drop towards 23 million as the driving season begins [82] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to sustained profitability through disciplined execution and operational excellence [4][5] - A strategic marketing partnership with EcoEnergy aims to enhance scale and optimize transportation and marketing economics [19][69] - The company is pausing its clean sugar technology initiative to maximize profitability from existing operations while addressing wastewater management challenges [15][108] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year, driven by cost reductions and improved market conditions [34][78] - The carbon strategy remains on track, with construction of carbon compression infrastructure advancing as planned [30][31] - The company is actively engaged in monetizing its carbon credits and expects to provide updates in future calls [31][34] Other Important Information - The company has executed a $30 million line of credit to enhance liquidity and support ongoing operations [28][72] - Capital expenditures in Q1 were $16.7 million, with expectations for the remainder of 2025 to be around $20 million [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on hedging practices and risk management - Management confirmed the reestablishment of hedging practices to manage risk effectively, utilizing analytics and market opportunities [39][41] Question: Status of CEO search - The CEO search is ongoing, with a focus on candidates who can align with the company's strategic direction [44] Question: Impact of carbon capture construction timeline - Construction is on track for early Q4 startup, with no anticipated delays [48] Question: Tariff impacts on product exports - Currently, there have been no adverse impacts from tariffs, and the company is optimistic about potential new market opportunities [49][50] Question: Profit contribution from corn oil and protein platforms - Corn oil prices have improved, and the company expects continued support for margins from this segment [86][89] Question: Details on non-core asset sales - The company is focused on exiting non-core assets to streamline operations and improve focus on core business [77][78]

Financial Performance - Green Plains reported a net loss attributable to the company of $72.9 million, resulting in a loss per diluted share of $(1.14)[9,14] - The company's Adjusted EBITDA was $(24.2) million[9,20] - The consolidated ethanol crush margin was $(14.7) million[9,12] - Revenues reached $601.5 million, while costs and expenses amounted to $663.8 million, leading to an operating loss of $62.3 million[14] Production & Operations - Ethanol production volume was 195.3 million gallons, with the operating ethanol plants running at 100% capacity (excluding Fairmont)[9,11] - The company produced 417 thousand tons of distillers grains (dry equivalent) and 68 thousand tons of Ultra-High Protein[9,11] - Renewable corn oil production reached 64.3 million pounds[9,11] - The company processed 66.3 million bushels of corn[9] Liquidity & Capital Resources - Green Plains had $126.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, and restricted cash[9,15] - The company had $204.5 million available under a committed credit facility[9] Strategic Initiatives - Construction commenced on compression infrastructure for the carbon capture and storage initiative in Nebraska, expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2025[10] - Eco-Energy, LLC was selected as the company's ethanol marketer in April 2025[10] - A corporate reorganization cost reduction initiative was executed, leading to a significant reduction in ongoing expenses[10]

Company Performance - Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) reported a quarterly loss of $0.88 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.51, and compared to a loss of $0.81 per share a year ago [1][2] - The earnings surprise for this quarter was -72.55%, and the company had a previous quarter loss of $0.86 per share against an expected loss of $0.28, resulting in a surprise of -207.14% [2] - The company posted revenues of $601.52 million for the quarter ended March 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.24%, and showing a slight increase from year-ago revenues of $597.21 million [3] Stock Performance - Green Plains shares have declined approximately 60.2% since the beginning of the year, in contrast to the S&P 500's decline of -4.3% [4] - The current Zacks Rank for Green Plains is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [7] Earnings Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.21 on revenues of $623.87 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.67 on revenues of $2.51 billion [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Green Plains is mixed, and changes in earnings expectations may occur following the recent earnings report [7] Industry Context - The Chemical - Specialty industry, to which Green Plains belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 38% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact the stock's performance [9]

[Green Plains First Quarter 2025 Financial Results](index=1&type=section&id=Green%20Plains%20Reports%20First%20Quarter%202025%20Financial%20Results) Green Plains reported a wider net loss and Adjusted EBITDA loss in Q1 2025, while advancing strategic carbon reduction projects, achieving significant cost savings, and enhancing liquidity [Q1 2025 Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Results%20for%20the%20First%20Quarter%20of%202025) Green Plains reported a net loss of $72.9 million, or ($1.14) per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2025, an increase from the $51.4 million net loss in Q1 2024, with revenues seeing a slight increase to $601.5 million, while Adjusted EBITDA showed a larger loss of ($24.2) million compared to ($21.5) million in the prior-year period Q1 2025 Key Financial Metrics | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $601.5 million | $597.2 million | | Net Loss Attributable to Company | $72.9 million | $51.4 million | | Diluted Loss Per Share | ($1.14) | ($0.81) | | Adjusted EBITDA | ($24.2) million | ($21.5) million | [Management Commentary](index=1&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) Management emphasized progress on strategic initiatives, including the 'Advantage Nebraska' carbon reduction project, which is on track for a Q4 2025 startup, having achieved $45 million in annualized cost savings, nearing its $50 million target, and positioning the company to deliver positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year under current market conditions, with steps also taken to enhance liquidity and monetize non-core assets - The 'Advantage Nebraska' carbon reduction project is under construction and on track for a Q4 2025 startup[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company has achieved approximately **$45 million** of its **$50 million** annualized cost savings target, with corporate and trade SG&A expected to have a run rate in the low **$40 million** range by year-end[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Management expects to deliver positive EBITDA for the remainder of the year, based on current market conditions, due to cost reductions and a disciplined hedging program[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company is focused on enhancing liquidity and monetizing non-core assets to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce its cost structure[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Operational and Strategic Developments](index=1&type=section&id=Operational%20and%20Strategic%20Developments) The company initiated carbon capture construction, secured new marketing and credit agreements, and underwent corporate reorganization, while experiencing decreased ethanol production volumes and wider operating losses across key segments [Highlights and Recent Developments](index=1&type=section&id=Highlights%20and%20Recent%20Developments) The company highlighted several key developments, including the commencement of construction for its Nebraska carbon capture project, a new marketing agreement with Eco-Energy, LLC, and significant corporate reorganization to reduce costs, additionally refreshing its Board of Directors, extending the maturity of its Mezzanine Notes, and securing a new revolving credit facility - Commenced construction on its carbon capture and storage initiative in Nebraska, targeting a Q4 2025 start-up[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Selected Eco-Energy, LLC as its exclusive ethanol marketer in April 2025 to optimize value and supply chain efficiency[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Ancora Holdings Group, LLC, appointing three new independent board members[9](index=9&type=chunk) - Extended the maturity of its **$125 million** Mezzanine Note facility to May 15, 2026, and entered into a new **$30 million** secured revolving credit facility with Ancora[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=1&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) In Q1 2025, ethanol production volumes decreased to 195.3 million gallons from 207.9 million gallons year-over-year, with the consolidated ethanol crush margin worsening to a loss of ($14.7) million compared to a loss of ($9.3) million in Q1 2024, and the overall net loss increasing by $21.5 million, primarily due to lower margins in the ethanol production and agribusiness segments, along with $16.6 million in restructuring costs Ethanol Production & Crush Margin | Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol Gallons Sold | 195.3 million | 207.9 million | | Consolidated Ethanol Crush Margin | ($14.7) million | ($9.3) million | - Consolidated revenues increased slightly by **$4.3 million** due to higher ethanol and natural gas prices, which was offset by lower sales volumes of ethanol, distillers grains, and renewable corn oil[7](index=7&type=chunk) - The net loss increase of **$21.5 million** was driven by weaker segment margins and **$16.6 million** in restructuring costs incurred during the quarter[10](index=10&type=chunk) [Segment Performance](index=2&type=section&id=Segment%20Information) The Ethanol Production segment's operating loss widened to ($39.6) million from ($33.7) million year-over-year, with revenues slightly decreasing, while the Agribusiness and Energy Services segment saw a significant drop in operating income to $1.5 million from $6.0 million, despite a 10.9% increase in revenue, and Corporate activities' operating loss increased, partly due to $10.3 million in restructuring costs Segment Operations (Three Months Ended March 31) | Segment | Metric | 2025 (in thousands) | 2024 (in thousands) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Ethanol Production** | Revenues | $497,772 | $505,659 | (1.6)% | | | Operating Loss | $(39,550) | $(33,653) | 17.5% | | | Adjusted EBITDA | $(19,416) | $(13,621) | 42.5% | | **Agribusiness & Energy** | Revenues | $109,829 | $98,996 | 10.9% | | | Operating Income | $1,533 | $6,004 | (74.5)% | | | Adjusted EBITDA | $3,156 | $7,056 | (55.3)% | - Corporate activities included **$10.3 million** of restructuring costs related to the company's cost reduction initiative and the departure of its CEO[14](index=14&type=chunk) Selected Operating Data (Three Months Ended March 31) | Product | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ethanol (million gallons) | 195.3 | 207.9 | (6.0)% | | Distillers grains (thousand tons) | 417 | 469 | (11.1)% | | Ultra-High Protein (thousand tons) | 68 | 60 | 13.3% | - The consolidated ethanol crush margin deteriorated to **($14.7) million** in Q1 2025 from **($9.3) million** in Q1 2024[18](index=18&type=chunk) [Financial Position and Outlook](index=4&type=section&id=Financial%20Position%20and%20Outlook) Green Plains maintained substantial cash and credit availability, with improved corporate liquidity, while acknowledging that forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=4&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) As of March 31, 2025, Green Plains had $126.6 million in total cash and restricted cash, with $204.5 million available under a revolving credit facility, and total corporate liquidity was $48.6 million at quarter-end but improved to $89.2 million by May 7, 2025, with total debt outstanding at $571.8 million Liquidity Position | Metric | As of March 31, 2025 | | :--- | :--- | | Total Cash & Restricted Cash | $126.6 million | | Available Revolving Credit | $204.5 million | | Total Debt Outstanding | $571.8 million | | Total Corporate Liquidity | $48.6 million | - Total corporate liquidity increased significantly from **$48.6 million** on March 31, 2025, to **$89.2 million** as of May 7, 2025[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Forward-Looking Statements](index=4&type=section&id=Forward-Looking%20Statements) The report contains forward-looking statements regarding future growth, profitability, and strategic plans, which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including industry conditions, commodity market risks, and economic factors, that could cause actual results to differ materially, and the company directs investors to its SEC filings for a more complete discussion of these risks - Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections, and investors should not place undue reliance on them[25](index=25&type=chunk) - Key risks include failure to realize benefits from new products, sustained adverse conditions in the ethanol industry, commodity market volatility, and changes in government policy[25](index=25&type=chunk)[26](index=26&type=chunk) - The company does not intend to update forward-looking statements except as required by law and refers to the 'Risk Factors' in its Form 10-K for more details[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Consolidated Financial Statements](index=6&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) The company's Q1 2025 financial statements show a decrease in total assets and liabilities, a wider net loss despite slightly increased revenues, and increased cash usage in operating activities [Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets](index=6&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets) As of March 31, 2025, total assets were $1.67 billion, down from $1.78 billion at year-end 2024, with the decrease primarily driven by a reduction in cash and inventories, and total liabilities also decreased to $859.4 million from $907.6 million, mainly due to lower accounts payable, while total stockholders' equity stood at $807.2 million Balance Sheet Highlights (in thousands) | Account | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Assets** | | | | Cash and cash equivalents | $98,610 | $173,041 | | Total current assets | $450,310 | $569,032 | | Total assets | $1,666,572 | $1,782,174 | | **Liabilities & Equity** | | | | Total current liabilities | $325,735 | $385,687 | | Total liabilities | $859,384 | $907,637 | | Total stockholders' equity | $807,188 | $874,537 | [Consolidated Statements of Operations](index=7&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Operations) For the first quarter of 2025, Green Plains reported revenues of $601.5 million, a slight increase from $597.2 million in Q1 2024, however, a rise in cost of goods sold and SG&A expenses led to a wider operating loss of ($62.3) million, compared to ($44.9) million in the prior-year period, with the net loss attributable to the company being ($72.9) million, or ($1.14) per share Statement of Operations Highlights (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Account | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Revenues | $601,515 | $597,214 | | Cost of goods sold | $598,476 | $588,847 | | Selling, general and administrative expenses | $42,912 | $31,769 | | Operating loss | $(62,260) | $(44,889) | | Net loss attributable to Green Plains | $(72,906) | $(51,412) | | Diluted loss per share | $(1.14) | $(0.81) | [Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows](index=8&type=section&id=Condensed%20Consolidated%20Statements%20of%20Cash%20Flows) For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash used in operating activities was ($55.0) million, a larger outflow than the ($50.6) million used in the same period of 2024, with net cash used in investing activities at ($20.7) million, primarily for property and equipment purchases, and financing activities using ($7.0) million, resulting in a net decrease in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of ($82.8) million for the quarter Cash Flow Summary (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Cash Flow Activity | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash used in operating activities | $(55,041) | $(50,599) | | Net cash used in investing activities | $(20,710) | $(30,203) | | Net cash used in financing activities | $(7,041) | $(20,578) | | **Net change in cash** | **$(82,792)** | **$(101,380)** | [Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=9&type=section&id=Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) The company reconciled its Q1 2025 net loss to Adjusted EBITDA, highlighting the impact of restructuring costs on its non-GAAP financial performance [Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA](index=9&type=section&id=Reconciliations%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) The company provides a reconciliation from its GAAP Net Loss to the non-GAAP measure of Adjusted EBITDA, where for Q1 2025, the net loss of ($72.6) million was adjusted for interest, taxes, D&A, and $16.6 million in restructuring costs, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA of ($24.2) million, which compares to an Adjusted EBITDA of ($21.5) million in Q1 2024 - Management uses non-GAAP measures like EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA to measure financial performance, with Adjusted EBITDA including adjustments for items like restructuring costs[23](index=23&type=chunk) Reconciliation of Net Loss to Adjusted EBITDA (Three Months Ended March 31, in thousands) | Line Item | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net loss | $(72,641) | $(51,122) | | Interest expense | 8,913 | 7,786 | | Income tax expense | (165) | 329 | | Depreciation and amortization | 22,387 | 21,487 | | **EBITDA** | **(41,506)** | **(21,520)** | | Restructuring costs | 16,587 | — | | Other adjustments | 735 | 45 | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | **$(24,184)** | **$(21,475)** |

Company Overview - Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.51 per share, reflecting a 37% improvement from the previous year [1][3] - Revenues are projected to be $588.33 million, which is a decrease of 1.5% compared to the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 12.33% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10] - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -39.22%, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [10][11] Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Green Plains was expected to post a loss of $0.28 per share but instead reported a loss of $0.86, resulting in a surprise of -207.14% [12] - Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The stock may experience upward movement if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [11][16] Industry Context - In the Zacks Chemical - Specialty industry, Quaker Chemical (KWR) is also expected to report earnings, with a projected EPS of $1.52, indicating a year-over-year decline of 27.3% [17] - Quaker Chemical's consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 4.5% in the last 30 days, but a higher Most Accurate Estimate results in a positive Earnings ESP of 2.61% [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Green Plains reported consolidated revenues of $584 million for Q4 2024, which is approximately 18% lower than the same period a year ago, primarily due to lower market prices for ethanol, dried distillers grains, and renewable corn oil [26][28] - The company experienced a net loss of $54.9 million or negative $0.86 per share, compared to a net income of $7.2 million or $0.12 per share for the same period in 2023 [10][28] - EBITDA for Q4 was negative $18.9 million, a significant decline from $44.7 million in the prior year [11][28] - SG&A costs were $25.6 million, which is $7.2 million lower than the prior year due to reduced personnel costs and adjustments to incentive accruals [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The plant utilization rate was 92% during Q4, down from 95% in the same period last year, with an average utilization rate of 94% over the trailing four quarters [27] - The company shut down a 120 million gallon facility in Fairmont due to market conditions and flooding issues, which is expected to remain in cold idle for the foreseeable future [9][10] - The overall protein complex is under pressure from oversupply, but there are bright spots in the aquaculture market, with significant sales to major customers [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong exports are anticipated, with the company on pace to set a new record of approximately 1.9 billion gallons, expected to exceed that in 2025 [14] - The global market remains tight on corn, which could lead to higher prices if planting intentions do not increase [16] - The company noted that the soybean oil market is tight globally, which could benefit their corn oil products [95] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost savings and margin expansion, identifying up to $50 million in annualized cost savings, with $30 million already implemented [7][57] - A strategic shift from innovation to commercialization is underway, with a focus on rationalizing costs and improving profitability [6][54] - The company is optimistic about the potential of carbon capture initiatives, expecting significant cash flow contributions starting later this year [22][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment over the negative EBITDA for Q4 but highlighted a positive EBITDA of $44.7 million for the full year 2024 [11][28] - The management is closely monitoring planting intentions and believes favorable industry fundamentals are in place, despite current market pressures [16] - The company is optimistic about the future contributions from carbon capture and the potential for significant rerating of the company's valuation [24][54] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its clean sugar initiative, receiving necessary certifications and approvals [46][85] - The company anticipates capital expenditures for 2025 to be in the range of $20 million to $35 million, excluding carbon capture equipment [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on the $50 million cost savings initiative? - Management indicated that the initiative aims to increase overall profitability by rationalizing costs and focusing on commercializing products rather than further innovation [60][61] Question: What is the status of the aquaculture projects in South America? - Management confirmed successful penetration into the market, with significant sales achieved and ongoing interest from customers [66][68] Question: Can you discuss the timeline for carbon capture projects? - Management expects the first carbon capture contributions to begin in late Q3 or early Q4 2025, with construction of necessary infrastructure already underway [73][74] Question: How is the company addressing the sugar initiative and its market development? - Management stated that they are awaiting food safety certifications and are optimistic about future sales once these are obtained [81][84] Question: What is the expected impact of the restructuring on cash flow? - Management anticipates minimal cash impact from the restructuring, estimating charges to be under $10 million, with some potentially being non-cash [192][193] Question: How does the company view the current ethanol market and future demand? - Management believes that increased demand during the summer driving season could help improve margins, but challenges remain due to elevated stocks and production levels [204][206] Question: What is the outlook for corn oil demand and pricing? - Management is optimistic about strong demand for corn oil, particularly in renewable diesel markets, and expects pricing to improve as contracts are secured [210][212]