Intuit Reports Strong Third-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Guidance Consumer Group Revenue Grew 11 percent; Global Business Solutions Group Revenue Grew 19 percent MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. - May 22, 2025 - Intuit Inc. (Nasdaq: INTU), the global financial technology platform that makes Intuit TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp, announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended April 30. "We have exceptional momentum with outstanding performance across our platfor ...

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 22, with projected revenue growth of 12% to 13% year-over-year, amounting to $7.55-$7.60 billion, and non-GAAP earnings estimated at $10.89-$10.95 per share, reflecting a potential decline in earnings compared to previous quarters [1][2]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $7.54 billion, indicating an 11.98% year-over-year growth [2]. - The consensus for earnings is $10.89 per share, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 10.22% [2]. Recent Performance and Guidance - Following a strong fiscal second-quarter performance with 17% revenue growth, Intuit maintained its full-year guidance of 12-13% revenue growth, indicating continued but potentially moderated momentum for the fiscal third quarter [3]. Strategic Acquisitions - The recent acquisition of GoCo enhances Intuit's Human Capital Management capabilities, aligning with its focus on mid-market businesses, although it may not significantly impact upcoming results due to integration costs [4]. Tax Season Impact - Tax season performance is critical for third-quarter results, as it typically captures the majority of TurboTax revenues, with early-season momentum noted in the assisted category [5]. Credit Karma Segment - The Credit Karma segment experienced 36% growth in the fiscal second quarter but faces challenging year-over-year comparisons in the third quarter, with minimal immediate revenue impact expected from recent financial education expansions [6]. Global Business Solutions Group - The Global Business Solutions Group delivered 19% growth in the fiscal second quarter, with Online Services revenues reflecting robust demand for payments and payroll solutions [7]. Margin Expansion - Margin expansion is anticipated as AI-driven efficiencies continue to take hold, with previous fiscal second-quarter results indicating annual efficiencies ahead of schedule [8]. Growth Thesis - Recent strategic acquisitions and product expansions reinforce Intuit's growth thesis, although near-term performance may reflect a normalization from exceptional recent growth rates [9].

Core Insights - Intuit is expected to announce earnings on May 22, 2025, with historical data indicating a 69% chance of a positive one-day return following earnings announcements [1][7] - Consensus forecasts predict earnings per share of $10.91 and revenues of $7.56 billion for the upcoming quarter, compared to $9.88 EPS and $6.74 billion in revenues for the same quarter last year [2] - Intuit's current market capitalization stands at $188 billion, with $17 billion in revenue, $4.1 billion in operating profit, and $3.0 billion in net income over the past twelve months [3] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Intuit has recorded 16 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day returns, resulting in a median positive return of 2.2% and a median negative return of -3.8% [7] - The likelihood of a positive one-day return drops to 67% when analyzing data from the last three years instead of five [7] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical trends to establish positions before earnings announcements and adjust trades based on immediate market reactions and subsequent medium-term performance [6] - A strategy involving the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be employed, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [5][6]

Core Insights - Intuit (INTU) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $10.89 per share, reflecting a 10.2% increase year over year, with revenues forecasted at $7.54 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase [1] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net revenue- Consumer' to reach $3.97 billion, indicating an 8.6% year-over-year change [4] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed' is projected at $2.86 billion, suggesting a 20% increase from the previous year [4] - 'Net revenue- Credit Karma' is expected to be $430.66 million, reflecting a decrease of 2.8% year over year [4] - 'Net revenue- ProTax' is forecasted at $273.84 million, indicating a 7.8% year-over-year increase [5] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Total Online Ecosystem' is projected to be $2.14 billion, suggesting a 22.2% increase from the prior year [5] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Total Desktop Ecosystem' is expected to reach $723.63 million, reflecting a 14.3% year-over-year change [6] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Online Ecosystem- QuickBooks Online Accounting' is projected at $1.06 billion, indicating a 22.9% increase [6] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Desktop Ecosystem- Desktop Services and Supplies' is estimated at $309.72 million, suggesting a 4.6% year-over-year change [7] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Online Ecosystem- Online Services' is expected to be $1.08 billion, reflecting a 20.5% increase [7] - 'Net revenue- Small Business & Self-Employed- Desktop Ecosystem- QuickBooks Desktop Accounting' is projected at $411.32 million, indicating a 22.1% increase [8] - 'Net revenue- Service' is expected to reach $6.67 billion, suggesting a 10.3% year-over-year change [8] - 'Net revenue- Product and other' is forecasted at $770.35 million, indicating an 11.8% year-over-year increase [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Intuit shares have returned +14.5%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +13.1% change [10]

Intuit (INTU) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended April 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 22, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectatio ...

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its upcoming quarterly report, supported by a strong history of exceeding expectations [1]. Company Performance - Intuit, known for TurboTax and QuickBooks, has a solid track record of surpassing earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 17.31% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the most recent quarter, Intuit reported earnings of $3.32 per share, exceeding the expected $2.58 per share by 28.68%. In the previous quarter, it reported $2.50 per share against an estimate of $2.36 per share, resulting in a surprise of 5.93% [3]. Earnings Estimates - Recent estimates for Intuit have been revised upward, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of another earnings beat [6]. - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Intuit is currently +0.43%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [9]. Predictive Metrics - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise, indicating a high probability of beating consensus estimates [7]. - The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [8].

Market Capitalization Changes - Tesla's market capitalization increased by 6.75% to $1,025.4 billion [3] - TSMC's market capitalization rose by 5.93% to $969.7 billion [3] - Tencent's market capitalization grew by 4.66% to $609.8 billion [3] - Netflix's market capitalization decreased by 2.65% to $472.3 billion [3] - Oracle's market capitalization increased by 4.58% to $440.8 billion [3] Notable Performers - Shopify saw a significant increase of 13.7% in market capitalization, reaching $136.2 billion [4] - AppLovin experienced a remarkable rise of 89% to $1.177 billion [4] - AMD's market capitalization increased by 5.13% to $175.3 billion [5] - Uber's market capitalization rose by 6.39% to $184.2 billion [5] Decliners - Pinduoduo's market capitalization fell by 6.14% to $165.2 billion [4] - Xiaomi's market capitalization decreased by 2.11% to $163.4 billion [4] - Spotify's market capitalization declined by 4.23% to $127.3 billion [4] Other Companies of Interest - Adobe's market capitalization increased by 3.3% to $168.7 billion [4] - Qualcomm's market capitalization rose by 4.78% to $167.0 billion [4] - Intel's market capitalization increased by 3.55% to $96.7 billion [5] - Airbnb's market capitalization grew by 5.64% to $828 million [5]

I am bullish on Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU ), driven by a 12% to 13% revenue growth rate after the integration of AI tools across its products, leading to a revenue boost forecast in Q3 2025 of between $7.55 billionFirst Principles Partners is an equity research analyst specializing in technology, innovation, and sustainability investment. My unique approach, "First Principles," involves breaking down complex problems to their most basic elements in terms of financial and technology, enabling me to uncover o ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis begins coverage of Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) and concludes with a 'Buy' rating for the stock based on the discussed factors [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Intuit has a comprehensive history and a well-defined business model that supports its operations and growth [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Recent financial performance details are provided, indicating the company's current standing in the market [1] Group 3: Valuation - The valuation of Intuit is discussed, contributing to the rationale behind the 'Buy' rating [1] Group 4: Risks - Risks associated with the company are acknowledged, although specific details are not provided in the summary [1]

Group 1 - Tomas Riba is an economist and former CFO who focuses on investing in high-quality companies that can compound cash flow over the long term [1] - His investment journey began in 2007, and he has a background in accounting and finance [1] - Riba has experience in various industries including pharma, medical devices, textiles, food, and real estate [1] - Currently, he teaches courses on "Derivatives for risk management" and "Investment analysis" at a Master's Degree program in Financial Management [1] - Riba's investment strategy emphasizes long-term growth, targeting companies with strong competitive advantages, expanding margins, low debt, and aligned management [1]