here at Post9 today is Jeffrey's equity analyst Randy Connor. Randy, welcome back. Good to see you.>> How are you. >> I let before before we get to the just buy it part, what do you do about China if you're Nike right now. >> Look, I I think what the market's missing about Nike is the company is making progress where it is distorting resources and time and effort.And that's in North America first and running. The company talked about uh China on their call last night to say, "Look, we're going to focus on C ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and Point Bonita Capital are under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws following a probe by the SEC related to their exposure to First Brands Group, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jefferies is an investment banking and capital markets firm, while Point Bonita Capital is its trade finance arm [2]. - Both firms were closely associated with First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that declared bankruptcy with $12 billion in debt [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Exposure - On October 8, 2025, Jefferies disclosed that it and Point Bonita had approximately $715 million in exposure to First Brands' receivables, accounting for about 25% of Point Bonita's trade finance portfolio [3]. - Following this announcement, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66 per share, or approximately 8%, from $59.10 to $54.44 [3]. Group 3: SEC Investigation Details - The SEC is investigating whether Jefferies provided adequate information to investors regarding their exposure to the auto business prior to its bankruptcy [4]. - The investigation also includes scrutiny of internal controls and potential conflicts of interest within Jefferies and Point Bonita [4][5]. Group 4: Legal Implications - Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP is investigating whether Jefferies and Point Bonita made materially false and misleading statements to investors concerning their significant exposure to First Brands [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing healthcare crisis in the United States, highlighting the impact of Republican policies on healthcare access and affordability, particularly for working-class Americans. Group 1: Republican Policies and Their Impact - The Republican party has enacted significant cuts to Medicaid, which has adversely affected the American populace [2] - Hospitals, nursing homes, and community health centers are closing nationwide, especially in rural areas, due to Republican policies [3] - The refusal to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits will lead to increased health insurance premiums for tens of millions of Americans, with potential increases of $1,000 to $2,000 per month [6] Group 2: Need for Healthcare Reform - There is a pressing need to address the underlying issues of healthcare costs in America, beyond just subsidizing individual costs [5] - The expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits on December 31st poses a significant risk to working-class and middle-class Americans, as 90% of those relying on these credits earn around $63,000 per year [6] - A comprehensive and bipartisan approach is necessary to fix the broken healthcare system, which requires cooperation from Republicans [7][8]

Core Insights - The aerospace and defense sector is facing challenges due to potential executive orders that may impose penalties on defense primes, making profitability difficult given current operating margins of 10% and cash margins of 5% [2][4] - The balance between research and development (R&D) investment and shareholder returns is highlighted, with defense primes investing approximately $40 billion in R&D and capital expenditures while returning $50 billion through dividends and buybacks, indicating a 1.3% investment to return ratio [4][5] - The commercial aerospace market is projected to grow, with aircraft needs increasing by 3% and aftermarket services by 8-10%, making companies like GE and RTX attractive investments [7][8] Investment Dynamics - The lack of clarity in defense budgets complicates investment cycles for defense primes, which do not have 5-year budgets, impacting their ability to generate returns [8][9] - International growth is seen as a significant upside, with NATO spending potentially increasing from 2% to 3.5%, translating to $280 billion in investments for defense primes, benefiting both U.S. and European contractors [10][11] - RTX has a notable exposure to European spending, with 44% of its defense backlog linked to this market, indicating strong international growth potential [11] Geopolitical Influence - The current geopolitical climate, including U.S. defense budgets growing by 3-5%, is influencing the defense sector, with international sales typically yielding higher margins for American defense primes [10][13] - The Trump administration's support for both large and small contractors has led to increased funding and innovation within the defense sector, resulting in a rise in defense tech IPOs [14][15] - The global threat environment is broadening the focus for defense contractors beyond traditional regions, emphasizing the need for a diverse playbook to address various geopolitical challenges [15]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and its trade finance arm Point Bonita Capital are under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws following a probe by the SEC related to their exposure to First Brands Group, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The SEC is investigating whether Jefferies provided adequate information to investors regarding their exposure to the auto industry, specifically concerning First Brands Group, which had $12 billion in debt at the time of its bankruptcy [4]. - Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP is examining if Jefferies and Point Bonita made materially false and misleading statements to investors regarding their significant exposure to First Brands [5]. Group 2: Financial Impact - On October 8, 2025, Jefferies disclosed that it and Point Bonita had approximately $715 million in exposure to First Brands' receivables, which accounted for about 25% of Point Bonita's trade finance portfolio [3]. - Following this announcement, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66 per share, or approximately 8%, from $59.10 on October 7, 2025, to $54.44 on October 8, 2025 [3]. Group 3: Company Background - Jefferies is an investment banking and capital markets firm, while Point Bonita Capital serves as its trade finance arm [2]. - Both firms were closely associated with First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that recently went bankrupt [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic data should be interpreted cautiously due to frequent revisions and inconsistencies, with expectations of further downward adjustments in job numbers for 2023 and 2024 [2][3] Economic Growth and Labor Market - There is a trend of good economic growth data, but it is not translating into significant job creation, with productivity growth and real wages increasing, although not rapidly enough to concern the Federal Reserve [3][11] - The economy is experiencing impressive GDP growth, with two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without substantial job creation, indicating a productivity-driven economic environment reminiscent of the 1990s [11][12] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's asset purchases, referred to as reserve management purchases (RMPs), are effectively functioning as quantitative easing (QE), adding liquidity to the market and positively influencing risk asset markets [4][5][6] - The Fed's balance sheet actions are significant, and the market's positive reaction to the recent FOMC meeting reflects this [7] Market Outlook - The outlook for equities remains constructive, with expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve, which is generally bullish for risk assets [12][14] - Oil prices are at multi-year lows, and there are indications that interest rates may decline, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, which supports a bullish sentiment in the market [13] Transition of Federal Reserve Leadership - Anticipation exists regarding the market's response to a new Fed chair, with historical patterns suggesting that new leadership often faces challenges from the market [8][9] - The credibility of the new Fed composition will play a crucial role in how risk assets respond, with potential for volatility during the transition [14]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and its trade finance arm, Point Bonita Capital, are under investigation for potential violations of federal securities laws following a probe by the SEC related to their exposure to First Brands Group, which filed for bankruptcy in September 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jefferies is an investment banking and capital markets firm, with Point Bonita Capital serving as its trade finance division [2]. - Both Jefferies and Point Bonita were significant financial partners of First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that declared bankruptcy in September 2025 [2]. Group 2: Financial Exposure - On October 8, 2025, Jefferies disclosed that it and Point Bonita had approximately $715 million in exposure to First Brands' receivables, accounting for about 25% of Point Bonita's trade finance portfolio [3]. - Following this announcement, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66 per share, or approximately 8%, from $59.10 on October 7, 2025, to $54.44 on October 8, 2025 [3]. Group 3: SEC Investigation Details - The SEC is investigating whether Jefferies provided adequate information to investors regarding their exposure to the auto industry, particularly in light of First Brands' bankruptcy, which involved $12 billion in debt [4]. - The SEC is also examining internal controls and potential conflicts of interest within Jefferies and Point Bonita [4]. Group 4: Legal Implications - Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP is investigating whether Jefferies and/or Point Bonita made materially false and misleading statements to investors concerning their significant exposure to First Brands and the ongoing SEC investigation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights five non-tech large-cap stocks that are currently trading on the dip from their 52-week highs, presenting attractive investment opportunities for 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - On December 11, 2025, the Dow and S&P 500 indexes advanced by 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively, reaching new all-time high closings, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3% [2]. - The recent Federal Reserve rate cut and high valuations in the technology sector have prompted a shift in market focus towards rate-sensitive cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials, financials, energy, materials, and healthcare [3]. Group 2: Featured Stocks On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding specializes in footwear and sports apparel, with an expected revenue growth rate of 20.6% and earnings growth rate of 79.3% for the next year [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for next year's earnings has improved by 22% over the last 30 days, and ONON is currently trading at a 22.7% discount from its 52-week high [5]. Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Lennar is involved in homebuilding and financial services, benefiting from a tech-enabled manufacturing platform aimed at improving efficiencies and reducing costs [6]. - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 1.9% and earnings growth rate of 11.1% for the next year, with a 21.2% discount from its 52-week high [8]. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) - Jefferies has gained market share in investment banking without significantly expanding its balance sheet, which is expected to drive top-line growth [9]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 16.5% and earnings growth rate is 59.5% for the next year, with a 23.7% discount from its 52-week high [11]. Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) - Omnicom's diverse portfolio across traditional and digital marketing segments enhances revenue stability [12]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 3.1% and earnings growth rate is 8.8% for the next year, currently trading at a 13.2% discount from its 52-week high [14]. Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) - Thomson Reuters provides value-added information and technology across various sectors, including law, tax, and financial services [15]. - The expected revenue growth rate is 7.6% and earnings growth rate is 12.4% for the next year, with a significant 39.6% discount from its 52-week high [16].

Core Viewpoint - The analyst Randy Ko has upgraded shares of a company after maintaining a sell rating for over two years, indicating a potential shift in the company's outlook due to leadership changes [1] Leadership Issues - The company's previous management was criticized for attempting to expand into non-core products, which did not resonate with their customer base, leading to a decline in their core leggings product [2][3] - The departure of the leadership team is seen as a positive development for the company, suggesting that the previous strategy was ineffective [4] Market Performance - The company's U.S. business has experienced a 5% decline this quarter, indicating ongoing challenges in regaining market momentum [7] - The analyst believes that growth may not return until 2027, highlighting the difficulties the company faces in the current market environment [8] Competitive Landscape - The company is facing increasing competition from other brands, including Vory, Ran, and Public Wreck, as well as established players like Nike, Ralph Lauren, and H&M, which complicates its market position [9][10] - The competitive dynamics are intensifying, making it challenging for the company to maintain its market share [10] Future Outlook - Despite the leadership change being a step in the right direction, the company is not expected to see significant growth in the near term due to difficult comparisons and a shift in consumer preferences towards denim and casual wear [5][6]

Market Overview - The Dow and S&P 500 indexes advanced 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively, reaching all-time high closings, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% [1] - Market participants are shifting from technology to rate-sensitive cyclical sectors such as utilities, industrials, financials, energy, materials, and health care due to the recent Fed rate cut and high valuations in the tech sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Five non-tech large-cap stocks are recommended, currently trading below their 52-week highs and at attractive valuations: On Holding AG (ONON), Lennar Corp. (LEN), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), and Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) [3][9] On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding specializes in footwear and sports apparel, offering products through various channels [6] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 20.6% and 79.3%, respectively, with a 22% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [7] Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Engaged in homebuilding and financial services, focusing on tech-enabled manufacturing to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 1.9% and 11.1%, respectively, with a 0.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [10] Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) - Gained market share in investment banking without significantly expanding its balance sheet, which is expected to drive top-line growth [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 16.5% and 59.5%, respectively, with a 0.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last week [13] Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) - Operates a diverse portfolio in traditional and digital marketing, enhancing revenue stability [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 3.1% and 8.8%, respectively, with a 2.4% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [16] Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) - A leading provider of information and technology across various sectors, including law, tax, and financial services [17] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 7.6% and 12.4%, respectively, with a 2.1% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [18]