Key Takeaways KB Home's Q3 EPS estimate is $1.50, down 26.5% year over year, with revenues seen falling 8.9% to $1.6B.Gross margin is projected at 18.4% and operating margin at 7.9%, both down sharply from last year.KBH's new orders are expected to rise 6.5% to 3,286 units, while backlog is projected to drop to 4,653 units.KB Home (KBH) is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Aug. 31) results on Sept. 24, after market close.In the last reported quarter, its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, indicating that more cuts may follow to support a struggling labor market [1][10] - The Fed's rate cut is expected to benefit interest-rate sensitive sectors, particularly small-cap stocks and consumer discretionary shares, with homebuilders being a notable beneficiary [2][10] - The S&P 500 reached record high levels, up over 13% year-to-date, following the Fed's decision to cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 4-4.25% range [2][11] Group 2 - The PHLX Housing index has increased by 15% this quarter, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of over 7%, although it still lags behind on a year-to-date basis [5][11] - Major homebuilders such as DR Horton, KB Home, and Toll Brothers have seen significant gains, with DR Horton up over 30% and both KB Home and Toll Brothers up over 20% this quarter [5][11] - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot have also performed well, with increases of approximately 20% and 13% respectively this quarter [5][11] Group 3 - The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to 6.39%, the lowest since early October 2024, with projections suggesting it could approach 6% by year-end [6][11] - The housing market is currently facing challenges, with single-family homebuilding dropping to a near 2.5-year low in August, indicating weakness in the sector [11] - Investors are hopeful that lower mortgage rates could revitalize the housing market, with a target of bringing rates down to the 5% range being seen as crucial [7][11] Group 4 - The relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates is complex, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which was around 4.13%, down from 4.6% in May [8][11] - Upcoming economic data, including existing and new home sales, will provide further insights into the housing market, with a good housing turnover being beneficial for overall economic activity [9][11] - The Fed's approach to rate reductions remains uncertain due to persistent inflation, which could lead to volatility in economic data related to the labor market and inflation [9][11]

Company Performance - KB Home's stock closed at $63.94, reflecting a decrease of 1.65% from the previous trading session, underperforming compared to the S&P 500's gain of 0.49% [1] - Over the past month, KB Home's stock has increased by 7.31%, outperforming the Construction sector's gain of 0.54% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.99% [1] Earnings Forecast - KB Home is set to release its earnings report on September 24, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.5, indicating a 26.47% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - The anticipated revenue for the upcoming quarter is $1.6 billion, representing an 8.91% decrease compared to the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the annual period, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $6.48 per share and revenue of $6.4 billion, reflecting declines of 23.31% and 7.63% respectively from the last year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for KB Home are crucial as they indicate changing business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3][4] Valuation Metrics - KB Home currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.04, which is lower than the industry average Forward P/E of 11.9 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 5.28, compared to the average PEG ratio of 2.55 for Building Products - Home Builders stocks [7] Industry Context - The Building Products - Home Builders industry is part of the Construction sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 232, placing it in the bottom 7% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank is based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - The housing sector is facing significant challenges, with new housing starts declining to an annual pace of 1.3 million, which is below economists' expectations [2][3] - The median U.S. home price is projected to reach $416,900 by 2025, while the median household income is around $83,150, resulting in a price-to-income multiple of 5X, indicating severe affordability issues [4][7] - A housing shortage has reached an all-time high of 4.7 million units, exacerbating the crisis as younger buyers are priced out and older homeowners are not selling [8] Government Response - The White House is considering measures to address the high cost of housing, with potential actions including declaring a national housing emergency, providing tariff relief, and offering incentives for first-time buyers [9][10] - These combined measures could significantly boost both supply and demand in the housing market within a year, potentially leading to a housing boom [11] Investment Opportunities - Key homebuilders identified for investment include Lennar, PulteGroup, DR Horton, KB Home, NVR, Toll Brothers, Meritage Homes, and Green Brick Partners, referred to as "blue chips" of the housing construction industry [12] - Housing technology companies like Zillow are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities, especially if more buyers enter the market [12] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four to five times over the next year, which could lower mortgage rates significantly from the current range of 6-7% [15][17] - Lower mortgage rates could improve affordability for buyers but may also lead to increased demand and higher prices in a tight market [19] Additional Investment Considerations - Companies like Opendoor, Compass, and Rocket Mortgage are positioned to benefit from a potential housing boom and falling mortgage rates, with Rocket Mortgage expected to dominate the refinancing space [21]

Company Insights - Intel's stock surged 23% after announcing a co-development deal with Nvidia, which includes a $5 billion investment from Nvidia, marking a significant turnaround for Intel, which had been perceived as lagging in the AI sector [6][8][10] - FedEx reported a 3% revenue increase and a 6% profit increase, attributed to cost-cutting initiatives, although it faces macroeconomic headwinds such as tariffs and potential declines in consumer demand [8][20][21] - Tesla's stock rose 26% over the past month, with Elon Musk's recent purchase of over $1 billion in Tesla stock signaling confidence in the company's future [10][12][14] - Caterpillar's stock has increased 77% since its April lows, benefiting from the demand for machinery related to AI infrastructure build-out [14][16][18] Industry Trends - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates expectations for two rate cuts this year, with a 92% chance of a cut in October and an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut by December, reflecting market sentiment on economic conditions [8][19] - Inflation remains sticky around 3%, above the Fed's target of 2%, while the labor market shows signs of deterioration, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8][19] - Darden Restaurants experienced an 8% drop in stock price after missing expectations, highlighting the impact of tariffs on costs and the need for innovation in pricing strategies [20][21][23]

Core Viewpoint - KB Home is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1][5]. Financial Performance Estimates - Analysts predict KB Home's quarterly earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.50, a decrease of 26.5% year-over-year [1]. - Revenue is forecasted at $1.6 billion, reflecting an 8.9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.6% in the last 30 days [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Total Revenues from Homebuilding are expected to reach $1.60 billion, down 8.1% year-over-year [5]. - Financial services revenues are projected at $5.74 million, indicating a 13.4% decrease [5]. - Total Revenues from Homebuilding alone are estimated at $1.61 billion, also down 8.1% from the previous year [5]. Operational Metrics - Backlog Units are expected to be 4,411, down from 5,724 year-over-year [6]. - Unit deliveries for Total Homes are projected at 3,351, compared to 3,631 in the same quarter last year [6]. - Net orders for Units are estimated at 2,986, down from 3,085 year-over-year [6]. Pricing and Community Metrics - The Average Selling Price is forecasted to be $474.39 million, down from $480.90 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - Ending community count is estimated at 253, slightly down from 254 year-over-year [7]. - Backlog Value is expected to reach $2.23 billion, down from $2.92 billion year-over-year [8]. Income and Market Performance - Operating Income from Homebuilding is estimated at $124.81 million, down from $188.95 million in the same quarter last year [8]. - Financial services pretax income is projected at $9.58 million, down from $10.95 million year-over-year [9]. - KB Home shares have increased by 7.3% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 composite's 3% increase [9].

Core Viewpoint - KB Home is expected to report earnings that may exceed Wall Street estimates despite a predicted year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ending August 2025 [2][6] Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts predict an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 and revenue of approximately $1.59 billion for the quarter ending August 2025 [1][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate aligns with Wall Street's EPS prediction, indicating a potential for stock price increase if expectations are surpassed [2] Market Valuation Metrics - KB Home has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.14, suggesting moderate market valuation of its earnings [4] - The price-to-sales ratio is 0.66, indicating a low market valuation compared to sales [4] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 0.90, showing that the enterprise value is slightly less than total sales [4] Financial Health Indicators - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47, reflecting moderate debt levels [5] - A strong current ratio of 18.35 indicates excellent short-term liquidity [5] - An earnings yield of 12.29% suggests a solid return on investment for shareholders [5] Earnings Call Insights - The sustainability of any immediate price changes will depend on management's discussion during the earnings call, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time [3]

Core Viewpoint - KB Home is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended August 2025, with earnings expected to be $1.50 per share, reflecting a -26.5% change, and revenues projected at $1.6 billion, down 8.9% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for September 24, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.62% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that KB Home has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.40%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, when combined with the positive Earnings ESP, indicates a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, KB Home exceeded the expected earnings of $1.45 per share by delivering $1.50, resulting in a surprise of +3.45% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14]. Conclusion - KB Home is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors beyond earnings expectations when making investment decisions [17].

Group 1 - KB Home (NYSE:KBH) is recognized as one of the best housing stocks to buy according to hedge funds, with Oppenheimer initiating coverage with a "Perform" rating and no price target [1] - The company's land strategy is viewed positively, and its build-to-order model is believed to have long-term advantages, although its market footprint and new pricing approach present challenges in the current market [1][2] - In Q2 2025, KB Home reported revenues of $1.53 billion, a decrease from $1.71 billion in the previous period, while the average selling price increased slightly to $488,700 [1] Group 2 - KB Home is scaling back land acquisition and development investments while increasing share repurchases, reflecting a strategic shift in response to the current market environment [2] - In Q2 2025, the company repurchased $200 million of its outstanding common stock at an average price of approximately $54 per share [2]

Core Insights - KB Home has announced the grand opening of Belcourt Place, a new-home community in El Monte, California, which is characterized as a vibrant and culturally rich city [1] - The new homes are designed with modern living in mind, featuring popular elements such as modern kitchens that overlook large great rooms [1] Company Overview - KB Home is recognized as one of the largest and most trusted homebuilders in the United States [1] - The company focuses on creating homes that cater to contemporary lifestyles, emphasizing family-friendly activities and a dynamic mix of dining, shopping, and entertainment in the communities they develop [1]