Core Viewpoint - Lumentum Holdings Inc. is expected to benefit from advancements in photonics intensity and the adoption of 200G/lane and 400G/lane optical links [1] Company Summary - Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates in the photonics industry, focusing on optical networking solutions [1] - The company is positioned to leverage new technologies that enhance data transmission capabilities [1] Industry Summary - The photonics industry is experiencing growth driven by the demand for higher bandwidth solutions, particularly in optical links [1] - The transition to 200G and 400G optical links indicates a trend towards increased data capacity and efficiency in telecommunications [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment industry [15]. Core Insights - Major cloud vendors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta reported better-than-expected financial results, driven by strong demand for cloud services and advertising, with significant capital expenditure increases [4][7]. - AI applications are deeply penetrating various sectors, leading to accelerated investments in computing power and infrastructure [7][13]. - The overall trend indicates a robust growth trajectory for AI and computing power, with companies ramping up their capital expenditures to support this growth [13]. Summary by Sections Cloud Vendors: Strong Financial Performance and Demand - Google reported Q2 2025 revenues of $96.43 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of $28.20 billion, up 19.4% [24][26]. - Amazon achieved Q2 2025 revenues of $167.70 billion, a 13.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $18.16 billion, up 34.7% [34][36]. - Microsoft recorded Q4 FY25 revenues of $76.44 billion, an 18.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $27.23 billion, up 23.6% [43][45]. - Meta's Q2 2025 revenues reached $47.52 billion, a 21.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $18.34 billion, up 36.2% [51][54]. CPU/GPU: Product Iteration and Ecosystem Upgrade - AMD's Q2 2025 revenues were $7.69 billion, a 31.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of $0.87 billion, up 229.1% [60][62]. - The client and gaming segments saw record growth, while the data center business faced challenges due to export restrictions [62]. Switches: High-End Volume and Stable Profitability - Arista's revenue growth was driven by its AI Center strategy, with significant increases in AI network revenue [9]. - Celestica's communication market growth was primarily driven by high-performance switches, with revenue and performance outlooks adjusted upwards [9]. Optical Communication & Fiber Optics: Strong Shipments and Scale-Up Acceleration - Lumentum's optical module shipments surged, and coherent optical communication business saw rapid growth [10]. - Corning's optical communication business thrived, driven by enterprise networks, with expectations for significant future growth from scale-up scenarios [10]. Cables: Strong Orders and Active Capacity Expansion - Amphenol reported strong AI-related orders and exceeded expectations in IT data communication business growth [11]. Cooling: High Demand and Accelerated Liquid Cooling Adoption - Vertiv's revenue and profits saw significant growth, with a strong order backlog and upward guidance for the year [12]. Investment Recommendations: Accelerating Business Flywheel and Computing Power - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including optical modules, liquid cooling, fiber optics, and AI applications, highlighting their potential for growth [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology allows for routing and forwarding of optical signals without optical-electrical conversion, offering ultra-high transmission speeds, low latency, low power consumption, and high stability compared to traditional switches. This technology is expected to significantly enhance the value of the industry chain in the long term [2][10]. - Google has integrated OCS technology into its TPU v4 generation, which is now in large-scale deployment. Major overseas optical communication leaders are actively promoting OCS products, with significant revenue contributions expected by 2026 [2][10]. Summary by Sections OCS Technology Overview - OCS operates on the principle of direct optical signal switching, eliminating the need for optical-electrical conversion, thus providing advantages such as ultra-high transmission speed and low power consumption. It is seen as a potential long-term replacement for electrical switches [10]. - LightCounting predicts that OCS shipments will experience explosive growth, reaching 10,000 units in 2023 and exceeding 50,000 units by 2029 [10]. Competitive Landscape - There are three main approaches to OCS technology: MEMS, Digital Liquid Crystal (DLC), and Direct Laser Beam Steering (DLBS). Google and Lumentum primarily use the MEMS approach, while Coherent employs the non-mechanical DLC method [10]. - The report highlights that Lumentum and Coherent have begun generating revenue from their OCS businesses, with expectations for continued revenue growth in upcoming quarters [4][10]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that OCS technology will replace electrical switches in the spine layer first, with potential penetration into the leaf/ToR layer in the future. The market for OCS is projected to expand significantly, with an estimated market space of around $2 billion [10]. - Key players to watch include optical system manufacturers with first-mover advantages, as well as manufacturers of passive optical components and laser sources [10].

Revenue Impact and Economic Conditions - The company has ceased all product shipments to Huawei, historically its largest networking customer in China, due to export control restrictions, negatively impacting revenue and financial condition [100]. - Economic challenges, including inflation and geopolitical instability, have led to decreased demand for products, revenue fluctuations, and increased price competition [92]. - The company has faced challenges in maintaining customer demand due to economic conditions, leading to order cancellations and delayed purchasing decisions [98]. - The inability to sell products to significant customers like Huawei has restricted revenue opportunities and may lead to increased competition from other suppliers [99]. - The current geopolitical environment and trade policies have created uncertainty in market conditions, impacting the company's growth prospects [91]. - Inflation and increased borrowing costs are expected to impact the company's cash flows and profitability, with rising costs of labor and materials potentially affecting overall cost structure [104]. - The company’s backlog may not accurately predict future revenues due to changing customer behaviors influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade policy changes, which could lead to reduced demand for certain products [106]. - The company's revenues and cash flows may fluctuate unpredictably due to cyclical demand for optical communication and laser products, making financial predictions difficult [167]. Supply Chain and Operational Risks - The company relies on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials, which poses risks of supply disruptions and increased costs due to market fluctuations [96]. - Supply chain disruptions have resulted in increased costs and challenges in meeting customer demand, adversely affecting revenue and profitability [97]. - Supply chain constraints, particularly in semiconductor components, have adversely affected the company’s operations, leading to extended lead times and potential revenue impacts [109]. - Disruptions in the production and delivery of raw materials and components could inhibit the company’s ability to produce finished goods, resulting in increased costs and delays in new product introductions [110]. - The company relies heavily on a limited number of customers for a significant portion of its sales, which poses risks if these customers alter their purchasing behavior [116]. - The company is highly dependent on shipping infrastructure; disruptions could lead to increased shipping costs and delays in product delivery [123]. Regulatory and Compliance Challenges - Adverse regulatory activities, such as export controls and economic sanctions, could limit sales to certain regions, particularly China, and increase operational costs [95]. - The company faces potential adverse effects on its business due to ongoing U.S. government restrictions on exports, particularly concerning entities like Huawei and FiberHome Technologies Group, which have been under export control since May 2019 and May 2020 respectively [103]. - Changes in U.S. and Chinese trade policies, including tariffs and sanctions, could materially impact the company's ability to source products and meet customer expectations [135]. - Compliance with new laws and regulations, such as GDPR and CCPA, increases complexity and costs, with potential penalties for non-compliance [165]. - The company is subject to the reporting requirements of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and must maintain effective internal controls, which may require significant operational resources [177]. - Non-compliance with environmental regulations could result in substantial costs and fines, adversely impacting financial condition and operating results [190]. Financial Position and Capital Management - The company has issued a total of $2.514 billion in convertible senior notes across various maturities, including $1.05 billion due in 2026, $861 million due in 2028, and $603.7 million due in 2029 [157]. - The company may require additional capital for growth initiatives, and future financing may not be available on favorable terms, potentially impairing business growth [157]. - The company’s ability to service its convertible notes depends on future performance, which is subject to various uncontrollable factors [200]. - As of June 28, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $877.1 million, focusing on capital preservation and liquidity [330]. - A hypothetical 1% increase or decrease in interest rates would affect the fair value of the company's investment portfolio by approximately $3.4 million [331]. Competition and Market Dynamics - Intense competition in the optical products market is leading to pricing pressures, with the company needing to innovate continuously to maintain market share and profitability [118]. - The company derives a majority of its revenue from international operations and plans to continue expanding in international markets, which may expose it to additional risks [119]. - The company faces significant risks from international operations, including adverse economic conditions, currency fluctuations, and regulatory changes that could impact financial results [120]. - Global economic volatility has led to significant fluctuations in foreign exchange markets, which may increase costs for non-U.S. operations when reported in U.S. dollars [121]. Legal and Intellectual Property Risks - The company faces litigation risks associated with acquisitions, which could divert management attention and incur additional costs [140]. - The company seeks to protect its intellectual property through patents and trademarks, but challenges in enforcement and potential infringement claims could adversely affect operations [168]. - The company may face significant expenses and resource diversion from litigation related to patent infringement claims, which could impact revenues and operating results [173]. - Trademark infringement claims could result in monetary liability or restrictions on product sales, adversely affecting revenues [174]. Workforce and Human Resource Challenges - The company’s ability to hire and retain key personnel is challenged by intense competition and high turnover rates, particularly in specialized technical areas [179]. - Changes in immigration laws could impact the company’s ability to hire foreign nationals, affecting workforce stability and operational capacity [180]. Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) Considerations - Compliance with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulations may complicate the supply chain and impact relationships with customers and investors [186]. - The company may incur increased costs and operational disruptions due to compliance with climate change regulations and environmental laws [188]. - The evolving legal landscape regarding AI may increase operational costs and compliance risks, adversely affecting financial results [196].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical communication sector, focusing on two companies: Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) [1][2]. Key Points from Lumentum (LITE) - **Revenue Growth**: LITE reported a 55.9% year-over-year increase in revenue to USD 480.7 million for 4QFY25, with a turnaround to a GAAP net income of USD 213.3 million from a net loss of USD 252.5 million a year prior [2][4]. - **Future Guidance**: Management provided guidance for 1QFY26E revenue between USD 510 million and USD 540 million, indicating a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6% to 12% and a year-over-year growth of 51% to 60% [2][4]. - **Product Demand**: Strong demand from hyperscale cloud customers is driving growth, particularly in the Cloud and Networking segment, which saw a 67% year-over-year increase [2][4]. - **EML Chip Shipments**: Achieved an all-time high in EML chip shipments, nearly doubling revenue compared to the previous year. Transitioning from 3-inch to 4-inch wafers to increase capacity, with potential future moves to 6-inch wafers [4]. - **Major Orders**: Received a substantial order for 200G EML chips, expected to be fulfilled in the December quarter, with 2026 anticipated as a breakout year for 100G and 200G laser chip shipments [4]. - **OCS Expansion**: Expanding Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) capacity in Thailand, with leadership in optical performance expected to capture demand ahead of competitors [5]. Key Points from Coherent (COHR) - **Revenue Performance**: COHR recorded a 16.4% year-over-year revenue growth in 4QFY25, reaching USD 942 million in the data center and communications segment, which contributed 62% of total revenue [6][7]. - **Guidance Shortfall**: Management's guidance for 1QFY26 revenue between USD 1.46 billion and USD 1.60 billion indicates an 8% to 18.6% year-over-year growth, but this fell short of market expectations [6][7]. - **Transceiver Development**: The company began shipments of its 1.6T transceiver in 4QFY25, with expectations for meaningful revenue contributions in FY26. Development of 3.2T transceiver products is ongoing [7]. - **Divestiture Strategy**: The divestiture of the Aerospace & Defense business for USD 400 million is a strategic move to streamline COHR's portfolio, expected to close in 1QFY26 [7]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The strong demand for AI infrastructure from global hyperscale AI and cloud players is expected to support sequential growth for optical transceiver players in China [1]. - **Supply Chain Considerations**: Continued supply tightness of key components, particularly optical chips, may benefit optical chip manufacturers [1]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategic outlook of Lumentum and Coherent within the optical communication industry.

Core Viewpoint - The global AI infrastructure boom is creating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry, leading to unprecedented profit opportunities for the entire supply chain, particularly benefiting upstream chip manufacturers [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The optical communication industry is experiencing a structural shortage driven by AI, which is expected to sustain its growth and profitability beyond market expectations [3]. - The demand from global hyperscale AI and cloud service providers is expected to support the continuous growth of Chinese optical transceiver manufacturers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Lumentum (LITE) reported impressive results with Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%, and a turnaround from a net loss of $252.5 million to a profit of $213.3 million [5]. - LITE's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-on-year growth of 51%-60% [5]. - Coherent (COHR) showed stable growth, with Q4 FY25 revenue increasing by 16.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [7]. Group 3: Chip Supply and Demand - The EML chip supply bottleneck is highlighting opportunities in the industry, with LITE achieving record EML chip shipments and nearly doubling revenue year-on-year [6]. - LITE is transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages, with plans to upgrade to 6-inch wafers in the future [6]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for the shipment of 100G and 200G laser chips [7]. Group 4: Data Center Business - The data center and communication business contributed 62% of total revenue, growing 39% year-on-year to $942 million [8]. - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects significant revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [8].

Core Insights - The strong performance of Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) in Q2 indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry driven by the global AI infrastructure boom [1] - Nomura Securities suggests that the current AI-driven optical communication industry cycle has greater sustainability and growth potential than previously expected, creating unprecedented profit opportunities across the supply chain [1] Company Performance - Lumentum reported Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 55.9%, with GAAP net profit turning from a loss of $252.5 million in the same period last year to a profit of $213.3 million [2] - Lumentum's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-over-year growth of 51%-60% [2] - Coherent's Q4 FY25 revenue grew by 16.4% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings increasing by 73.6% to $192 million, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [2] Market Dynamics - The EML chip supply bottleneck is creating significant opportunities for the optical communication industry, with Lumentum transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages [3] - The data center and communication segments contributed 62% of total revenue, which grew by 39% year-over-year to $942 million [4] - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects meaningful revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [4]

Core Insights - Lumentum Holdings Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4, with earnings of 88 cents per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 80 cents per share [1] - The company achieved quarterly sales of $480.700 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $465.756 million [1] - For Q1, Lumentum expects adjusted EPS between 95 cents and $1.10, with sales projected between $510.000 million and $540.000 million [1] Performance Highlights - The company experienced strong demand across its cloud products supporting AI data centers, leading to revenue exceeding the high end of previously revised guidance [2] - Notable strength was observed in components such as EML chips, pump lasers, and narrow linewidth laser assemblies for data center interconnect, as well as 800G modules [2] - Lumentum anticipates continued strong demand for AI data center and long-haul solutions, projecting quarterly revenue to surpass $600 million by June 2026 or earlier [2] Analyst Reactions - Needham analyst Ryan Koontz maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $135 to $145 [5] - B of A Securities analyst Vivek Arya upgraded Lumentum from Underperform to Neutral, increasing the price target from $78 to $135 [5] - Multiple analysts raised their price targets, with notable increases from Stifel, Raymond James, and Barclays, reflecting positive sentiment towards the company's performance and outlook [5]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter revenue was $480.7 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.88, both exceeding the high end of revised guidance [18] - Fiscal year 2025 net revenue was $1.65 billion, up 21% from fiscal year 2024 [20] - Non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter was 37.8%, up 260 basis points sequentially and up 1,000 basis points year on year [18] - Non-GAAP operating margin for the fourth quarter was 15%, up 420 basis points sequentially and over 2,000 basis points year on year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud and networking segment revenue for Q4 was $424.1 million, increasing 16% sequentially and 67% year on year [21] - Industrial tech segment revenue was $56.6 million, down 6% sequentially but up 6% year on year [22] - Cloud modules revenue grew by 50% quarter over quarter, contributing significantly to sequential revenue growth [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for optical hardware and bandwidth is growing dramatically due to the central role of AI in customer business strategies [6][7] - The company expects to surpass $600 million in quarterly revenue by June 2026 or earlier, driven by strong growth in cloud and networking [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three significant areas for long-term growth: cloud modules, optical circuit switching (OCS), and co-packaged optics (CPO) [12] - The company is investing in manufacturing capacity to support cloud customers and is expanding its in-house OCS manufacturing capacity to meet high demand [13][14] - The company aims to maintain a competitive advantage through innovation in optical technologies and strategic partnerships with hyperscalers [7][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver continued top-line growth and margin expansion, driven by the rapid adoption of AI [17] - The company anticipates 2026 to be a breakout year for laser chip sales, particularly for 100 and 200 gig lane speeds [11] - Management noted that the tariff situation is fluid but believes their products are exempt from potential semiconductor tariffs [54] Other Important Information - The company is transitioning from three-inch to four-inch wafers to increase capacity and is also looking to expand to six-inch wafers in the future [104][109] - The company has received a significant order for 200 gig line speed EML chips, expected to be filled in December [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on OCS award and revenue trajectory - Management indicated that the revenue ramp for OCS is better than expected, with significant revenues anticipated in early 2026 and a more meaningful inflection point in the second half of 2026 [30] Question: CPO opportunity and competitive landscape - Management feels confident in maintaining a competitive edge in the CPO market due to unique power levels and reliability of their lasers [33] Question: Contributions to the $600 million revenue target - Management expects continued strength in the components business and significant contributions from cloud modules and OCS [39] Question: Impact of semiconductor tariffs - Management believes their products are exempt from tariffs and has not seen material changes in business operations due to tariffs [54] Question: EML wafer fab capacity and pricing dynamics - Management is transitioning to larger wafers to increase capacity and anticipates that pricing discussions will become more significant in the coming quarters due to limited supply [106][109] Question: Profitability arc of OCS product offering - Management stated that OCS will be significantly above corporate margin averages and will be accretive to margins as volume increases [112]