Core Viewpoint - Analyst Andres Shepard from Cantor Fitzgerald predicts a potential 70% upside for Intuitive Machines and Rocket Lab by 2026, driven by increasing government demand [1]. Group 1: Intuitive Machines - Intuitive Machines' stock has dropped nearly 50% this year, but Shepard maintains a strong optimistic outlook, setting a target price of $16, indicating a 70% upside from current levels [7]. - The company is in a "recovery phase" following a failed lunar mission earlier this year, where its lander named "Athena" was unable to complete its mission [7]. - Intuitive Machines plans to complete the acquisition of satellite manufacturer Lanteris Space System by early 2026, which is expected to enhance its operational capabilities and bring in $920 million in contract orders, with nearly three-quarters from Lanteris [7]. - The company is one of three bidding for NASA's "lunar orbiter" contract, which has a total potential value of $4.6 billion, with initial contract amounts between $600 million to $800 million [8]. Group 2: Rocket Lab - Rocket Lab's stock has shown a steady increase this year, with a nearly 80% rise since 2025 [2][9]. - The company achieved a record revenue of $155 million in the third quarter, with a backlog of orders amounting to approximately $1.1 billion [9]. - Rocket Lab's business is divided into launch services and space systems, successfully launching 75 missions to date, with expectations to break its annual launch record [9]. - Shepard has set a target price of $72 for Rocket Lab, suggesting a nearly 70% upside from its current price, and maintains an "overweight" rating on the stock [9]. - The company is executing a $515 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency and is bidding for another project worth up to $900 million [9].

Core Insights - The space industry is experiencing significant growth in 2025, driven by increased global security needs, demand for faster satellite communication, and collaboration between governments and private companies [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Rocket Lab USA Corp. (RKLB) provides comprehensive space solutions, including small satellite launches, spacecraft design, manufacturing, and advanced space systems [3] - Intuitive Machines (LUNR) primarily focuses on lunar missions, offering lunar landers, payload delivery, data services, and long-term Moon infrastructure [3] Group 2: Performance and Milestones - Rocket Lab reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 48% in its third-quarter 2025 results, bolstering investor confidence [5] - In November 2025, Rocket Lab successfully launched a suborbital mission for the Defense Innovation Unit and the Missile Defense Agency, enhancing its role in national security [6] - Rocket Lab also launched two Explorer-class spacecraft for NASA's ESCAPADE mission to Mars, highlighting its expanding role in deep-space research [7] - The company completed its 74th Electron mission, reinforcing its reliability as a launch partner for Earth-imaging satellites [8] - Intuitive Machines secured an $8.2 million contract extension from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to advance next-generation nuclear power systems for spacecraft and lunar infrastructure [11][12] - Intuitive Machines agreed to acquire Lanteris Space Systems, enhancing its position in the space industry and expanding its revenue base [10] Group 3: Financial Estimates and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rocket Lab's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year surge of 37.7%, with a 20% improvement in bottom-line estimates over the past 60 days [13] - In contrast, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intuitive Machines' 2025 sales suggests a year-over-year decline of 4%, although its bottom-line estimates have improved by 7.14% and 20% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [14] - Rocket Lab shares gained 63.3% over the past year, while Intuitive Machines' shares declined by 35.8% during the same period [15] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Considerations - Intuitive Machines has a more attractive forward sales multiple of 6.00X compared to Rocket Lab's 26.98X [18] - Both companies currently exhibit negative Return on Invested Capital, indicating challenges in generating sufficient profit from investments [19] - Overall, Rocket Lab is viewed as the stronger contender in the current market, with better performance and earnings outlook, while Intuitive Machines presents long-term potential but faces risks due to its reliance on lunar missions [20]

Core Insights - Investors will have a break next week due to the market closure on November 27 for Thanksgiving, allowing time for assessment and reflection after a challenging week for Wall Street [2] - Despite the end of the U.S. government shutdown, some key economic reports are still being canceled due to insufficient survey data, impacting market expectations [3] Earnings Reports - Several companies are scheduled to report earnings next week, including Alibaba Group (BABA), Dell (DELL), Deere & Company (DE), Analog Devices (ADI), Best Buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), and DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) [4] - Specific earnings highlights include: - Monday: Agilent Technologies (A), Zoom Communications (ZM), Symbotic (SYM) [5] - Tuesday: Alibaba, Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies, Best Buy (BBY), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP (HPQ), DICK'S Sporting Goods, J.M. Smucker (SJM), and NIO (NIO) [5] - Wednesday: Deere, Li Auto (LI) [5] - Thursday: Intuitive Machines (LUNR) [6] - Friday: Frontline Plc (FRO), Buckle, Inc. (BKE) [6]

Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) is experiencing a stock increase of 7.8% despite a declining broader market, primarily driven by the announcement of its acquisition of Lanteris for $800 million, which will initially dilute existing shareholders [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a payment of $450 million in cash and $350 million in LUNR stock, leading to shareholder dilution [3]. - The deal is seen as a strategic move to expand Intuitive Machines' capabilities beyond lunar exploration, as Lanteris specializes in building satellites and spacecraft for servicing satellites in orbit [5][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Prospects - Analysts and institutions are optimistic about Intuitive Machines' long-term growth potential, particularly with the new acquisition aligning with its core mission [5]. - The addition of Lanteris is expected to enhance the company's portfolio, increasing the likelihood of securing additional government contracts, which could be crucial for profitability [6]. - Insider buying and strong institutional support indicate growing confidence in LUNR's long-term potential, with high short interest suggesting a possible breakout setup for traders [7].

Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Machines has announced the acquisition of Lanteris for $800 million, which is expected to significantly enhance its revenue and market position in the space industry [2][6][12] Acquisition Details - Intuitive Machines will pay $800 million for Lanteris, with $450 million in cash and $350 million in stock, resulting in approximately 30% dilution for existing shareholders [6][7] - The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2026 [12] Financial Implications - Intuitive Machines generated $226 million in revenue over the last 12 months, and the addition of Lanteris is projected to increase total revenue to over $850 million annually, implying Lanteris contributes at least $625 million in revenue [8][10] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for Intuitive Machines will decrease from 7.5 to 2 after the acquisition, indicating a favorable valuation for a space stock [9][10] Strategic Benefits - The acquisition is positioned to transform Intuitive Machines from a "lunar company" to a "multi-domain space prime," potentially opening avenues for lucrative contracts in missile defense and high-profile projects like Artemis and Mars missions [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Machines, a lunar landing and exploration vehicle developer, has faced challenges since its public debut but may present a contrarian investment opportunity at current depressed stock levels [1] Company Overview - Intuitive Machines went public in February 2023 through a SPAC merger, initially seeing its stock price rise to a high of $81.99 before falling to $9 [1] - The company primarily generates revenue from long-term contracts with NASA, having completed two lunar landings, Odysseus and Athena [2][3] Recent Developments - Despite technical issues during landings, NASA has deepened its relationship with Intuitive through new contracts, including a $4.82 billion NSNS contract [3][4] - Intuitive is expanding its business model to include ride-sharing services for payload delivery to the moon and plans to acquire Lanteris Space Systems for $800 million to enhance revenue streams [4] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024, Intuitive's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 46%, increasing from $73 million to $228 million, although it remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis [5][6] - Analysts expect revenue growth to continue at a CAGR of 25% from 2024 to 2027, reaching $446 million, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive by 2026 [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - The global space economy is expected to grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035, positioning Intuitive as a potential leader in this expanding market [11] - If Intuitive can achieve a revenue CAGR of 20% from 2024 to 2035, its market cap could increase over sevenfold to $8.45 billion [12] - The company aims to become a vertically integrated space services provider, enhancing its operational capabilities and financial stability [9][10]

Core Insights - Intuitive Machines Inc. is transitioning from a lunar lander startup to a multi-domain space company, indicated by its stock nearing a Golden Cross, a bullish signal in technical analysis [1][5] - The company has secured a dedicated bay at Texas A&M's upcoming Space Institute, a $200 million facility designed to simulate lunar conditions [2] - Intuitive Machines plans to utilize this facility to test its Moon RACER lunar terrain vehicle, leveraging 16 years of lunar data for enhanced development [3] Strategic Developments - The company announced an $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems, marking a significant shift in its operational identity [3][4] - This acquisition positions Intuitive Machines as a contractor for both lunar missions and commercial/military satellite operations, expanding its market reach [4] - The revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from $228 million to $850 million, reflecting its expanding business model [5]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2025, were $52,437,000, a decrease of 10.5% compared to $58,478,000 for the same period in 2024[18] - Service revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $163,824,000, down from $173,338,000 in the same period of 2024, reflecting a decline of 5.5%[18] - Operating loss for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $15,419,000, compared to a loss of $13,724,000 for the same period in 2024, indicating a worsening of 12.4%[18] - Net loss attributable to Class A common shareholders for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $7,000,000, compared to a loss of $55,543,000 in the same period in 2024[18] - The company reported a net loss of $9,960,000 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a net loss of $80,411,000 for the same period in 2024, showing a significant improvement[18] - As of September 30, 2025, the net loss attributable to the Company was $6,842,000, compared to a net loss of $43,419,000 for the same period in the previous year[30] - Net cash used in operating activities for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $7.023 million, while for the nine months it was $55.622 million[37] - The Company reported a significant increase in trade accounts receivable, netting $21.299 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024[37] - 2025 third quarter, net loss was $9,960,000, compared to 2024's $80,411,000, significantly reduced[153] Assets and Liabilities - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $621,975,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $207,607,000 as of December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 199.5%[16] - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were $753,530,000, up from $355,404,000 as of December 31, 2024, reflecting an increase of 112.2%[16] - Total liabilities increased to $509,701,000 as of September 30, 2025, compared to $351,483,000 as of December 31, 2024, marking a rise of 45%[16] - The total shareholders' deficit increased to $404,174,000 as of September 30, 2025, from $370,667,000 at the end of the previous quarter[30] Shareholder Equity and Stock Transactions - The weighted average shares outstanding for basic and diluted shares increased to 117,815,856 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 67,072,014 for the same period in 2024[18] - The balance of Class A common stock increased to 120,074,013 shares as of September 30, 2025, from 101,859,000 shares at the end of 2024[30] - The Company issued 15,358,229 Class A common shares for warrants exercised, resulting in an increase of $176,554,000 in paid-in capital[30] - The Company repurchased 20,700 shares of Class A common stock, impacting the treasury stock by the same amount[30] - The issuance of Class C common stock related to earn-out awards amounted to 7,500,000 shares, increasing the paid-in capital by $167,525,000[30] - The Company issued 4,705,883 shares of Class A Common Stock and warrants in a private placement transaction, generating gross proceeds of $20.0 million before transaction costs[117] Acquisitions and Growth Strategy - The company has made acquisitions as part of its growth strategy, which may disrupt operations and impact financial results[13] - The Company plans to acquire Lanteris Space Holdings LLC for $800 million, consisting of $450 million in cash and $350 million in Class A Common Stock[64] - The acquisition of KinetX, Inc. was completed for approximately $31.1 million, including $16.1 million in cash and shares valued at $15.0 million[185] Revenue Composition and Contracts - Fixed price contracts accounted for 58% of total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to 39% in 2024, indicating a significant shift in revenue composition[72] - Contract liabilities totaled $67.8 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $79.5 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a reduction in deferred revenue and contract loss provisions[76] - The aggregate amount of remaining performance obligations was $119.3 million as of September 30, 2025, with expectations to recognize 10-15% of this amount in the last quarter of 2025[80] - The Company recognized grant revenue of $1.5 million during the three months ended September 30, 2025, related to a $10 million grant from the Texas Space Commission[82] Research and Development - Research and development costs for Q3 2025 were $4.0 million, up from $0.3 million in Q3 2024, indicating a substantial increase in investment in innovation[181] Debt and Financing Activities - The Company issued $345.0 million aggregate principal amount of 2.500% convertible senior notes due 2030, with net proceeds of $334.6 million after expenses[62] - The Company entered into a loan and security agreement providing for a secured revolving credit facility of up to $40.0 million, which remains unborrowed as of September 30, 2025[63] - The Company entered into a loan agreement with Stifel Bank for a secured revolving credit facility of up to $40.0 million, maturing on April 30, 2027, with no outstanding debt as of September 30, 2025[101] Legal and Compliance - The Company was in compliance with all debt covenant requirements related to the Convertible Notes and the Stifel Loan Agreement as of September 30, 2025[98] - As of September 30, 2025, legal liabilities related to lawsuits were approximately $2,100,000[158] Taxation - As of September 30, 2025, the Company recognized a U.S. federal and state income tax expense of $5 thousand, with effective tax rates of (0.05)% and (0.01)% for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025[108] - The Company entered into a tax receivable agreement (TRA) requiring it to pay 85% of cash tax savings to TRA Holders, with management applying a full valuation allowance to deferred tax assets as of September 30, 2025[109][110]

Core Insights - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Intuitive Machines, Inc. despite higher revenues in the upcoming earnings report for the quarter ended September 2025 [1] - The stock price may react positively if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] Financial Expectations - The consensus estimate indicates a quarterly loss of $0.04 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year change of -300% [3] - Expected revenues are projected at $62.41 million, representing a 6.7% increase from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 18.68% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - It is important to note that aggregate changes may not represent the direction of revisions by individual analysts [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, providing insights into potential earnings surprises [7][8] - A positive Earnings ESP reading suggests a likely deviation from the consensus estimate, particularly indicating a potential earnings beat [9] Predictive Power of Earnings ESP - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [10] - Research indicates that stocks with this combination achieve a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, enhancing the predictive power of Earnings ESP [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $52.4 million, primarily driven by OMS, CLIPS, and NS and S [14] - Gross margin improved to $5.7 million, reflecting a continued focus on cost and execution of key programs [14] - Net loss for the quarter was $10 million, with adjusted EBITDA at negative $13.2 million, showing an improvement of $12.2 million compared to Q2 2025 [14] - Backlog at the end of Q3 was $235.9 million, with expectations to recognize approximately 20% in 2025 [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Lanterra Space Systems is expected to enhance Intuitive Machines' capabilities in satellite production and space infrastructure [6][12] - Lanterra has developed over 300 spacecraft, maintaining a 99.99% on-orbit availability, which is crucial for national security and commercial missions [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lanterra's business breakdown is approximately 25% defense, 25% civil, and 50% commercial, with expectations for the defense portion to increase due to new awards [32] - The acquisition positions Intuitive Machines to address growing demands in secure communications and space domain awareness, particularly in national security markets [7][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition aims to transform Intuitive Machines into a vertically integrated space prime provider, enhancing its ability to serve national security, civil, and commercial customers [6][12] - The company plans to leverage Lanterra's production scale and reliability to expand its Lunar Data Relay constellation and commercialize NASA's Tracking and Data Relay satellite system [12][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in capturing near-term awards despite uncertainties related to the government shutdown, expecting Q4 revenue to align with Q3 [17] - The combined company is projected to have over $850 million in revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA post-acquisition [19] Other Important Information - The acquisition is valued at $800 million, funded through $450 million in cash and $350 million in Intuitive Machines Class A common stock [6][18] - The transaction is expected to close in Q1 of the following year, subject to regulatory approvals [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What changes has Advent made within Lanterra to improve the margin profile of their manufacturing? - Management noted that Lanterra has made positive changes and efficiencies since going private, focusing on the 300 series satellite for national security applications [23] Question: Should we frame the strategy as gaining more manufacturing capability and driving margins with service revenues post-launch? - Yes, the services model is a higher margin business, and the reliability of Lanterra's satellites will support Intuitive Machines' data networks [25][26] Question: What is the growth profile of Lanterra going forward? - The combination of Intuitive Machines and Lanterra is expected to unlock new markets and diverse revenue streams, particularly in national security [30][31] Question: Can you break down Lanterra's backlog by customer exposure? - Lanterra's backlog is approximately 25% defense, 25% civil, and 50% commercial, with expectations for the defense portion to increase [32] Question: What is the regulatory risk on closing the deal? - The acquisition will undergo a standard antitrust review, which is expected to be routine [64] Question: Will the acquisition change the timing of deployment for the data relay satellites? - There is potential to accelerate the deployment of the lunar constellation due to increased manufacturing capacity from Lanterra [70][71] Question: Is there any recurring revenue or service revenue in Lanterra's assets? - Currently, Lanterra's revenue is primarily product-based, but Intuitive Machines plans to introduce a higher margin service model [83]