Despite tariffs, stick to inflation, and the lack of key data, the outlook for spending remains bullish, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. Here with us now at Post9 is chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute, Michelle Meyer. It's good to have you back.Welcome. >> Thank you. >> So, what do you guys expect. >> Well, exactly what you said.I mean, the consumer is still very much engaged despite all of these different headlines. They're trying to navigate relative price differentials ...

Core Insights - Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoins into their transaction processing systems, marking a significant shift in the digital payments landscape [1][5] - The initial expectation that cryptocurrencies would disrupt credit card companies is being re-evaluated as these companies embrace stablecoins [2][9] Group 1: Visa's Initiatives - Visa initiated its stablecoin project in April 2025, partnering with a Stripe subsidiary called Bridge to link Visa cards to users' stablecoin holdings, particularly targeting Latin America [6] - The focus on stablecoins is seen as a response to the slow banking systems in certain regions, where stablecoin ownership is more prevalent [6] Group 2: Mastercard's Developments - Mastercard followed Visa's lead in June by integrating four leading stablecoins into its global settlement systems, collaborating with issuers like Circle Internet, Fiserv, Paxos, and PayPal [7] - This integration reflects a strategic move to enhance payment solutions without creating proprietary cryptocurrencies [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Both companies are not attempting to disrupt existing stablecoins but are instead partnering with established issuers to promote coins like USDC and PayPal USD for broader consumer use [9] - Mastercard emphasized that stablecoins will not disrupt the current payment dynamics but will reinforce the convenience and security that consumers and merchants seek [9]

Core Insights - The card networks are issuing reports ahead of the holiday shopping season to inform consumers and merchants about potential fraud risks and scams [3][4] - Visa highlights the evolution of fraud tactics, indicating that criminals are now operating with more sophistication and organization, akin to tech startups [5][6] - Mastercard's acquisition of Recorded Future for $2.65 billion underscores the increasing importance of fraud prevention services in the card industry [5] Visa's Findings - Visa's report analyzes fraud patterns from the first half of 2025, revealing that criminals are leveraging artificial intelligence and new technologies to enhance their operations [6] - Key patterns identified include the industrialization of fraud schemes, strategic timing of stolen data usage, and the proliferation of fake content across merchant websites [6] - The report emphasizes the inadequacy of legacy defenses and highlights vulnerabilities in third-party fraud prevention measures [6] Mastercard's Insights - Mastercard's Recorded Future unit reported on the creation of fake e-commerce activities by criminals, which aim to deceive consumers and steal sensitive information [6] - The report details how fraudulent marketing tactics are employed to lure consumers to illegitimate merchants [6]

Core Insights - Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their embrace of cryptocurrency payments, betting on the growth potential of stablecoins in developing countries while countering competitive threats from merchants bypassing their networks [1] - The push for expansion in cryptocurrency payments comes after a warning in spring when Amazon and Walmart were reported to be exploring stablecoin launches, leading to a drop in Visa and Mastercard's stock prices [1] - Recent legislation in Washington has provided legitimacy to stablecoins, promoting their growth in traditional finance [1] Group 1: Cryptocurrency Payment Expansion - Visa's prepaid card business based on stablecoins is rapidly growing, particularly in emerging markets like Latin America, where consumers and businesses use stablecoins to access US dollars [2] - As of September 30, the spending associated with Visa cards linked to stablecoins has tripled year-over-year, with Visa operating over 130 stablecoin-linked card issuance projects in more than 40 countries [2] - Mastercard has over 100 crypto card projects globally, with significant contributions from startups like Rain and Stripe's Bridge [2] Group 2: Challenges to Traditional Banking - The stablecoin business poses a nuanced challenge for Visa and Mastercard as it may alienate traditional banking clients who rely on debit and credit cards [2] - Both companies do not issue their own stablecoins but assist banks in launching them, which could threaten banks' roles in stablecoin transactions, leading to lower revenue compared to traditional debit card payments [3] - Merchants prefer stablecoin transactions due to faster fund availability, which could disrupt traditional settlement processes [3] Group 3: Credit Card Market Potential - Direct payments between businesses and individuals represent the largest type of stablecoin transactions, followed by card payments, indicating that card usage is being driven by Visa and Mastercard's involvement [4] - Stablecoin-linked credit cards are still in the early stages, with limited adoption compared to traditional credit cards, which remain core to Mastercard and Visa's business [4]

Core Insights - Mastercard is enhancing its cybersecurity capabilities through a strengthened partnership between its subsidiary Recorded Future and Exabeam, focusing on real-time threat detection and automated response [1][4][8] Group 1: Cybersecurity Developments - The collaboration integrates Exabeam's New-Scale Security Operations Platform with Recorded Future's Intelligence Platform, providing security teams with real-time threat context and reducing investigation times [2][8] - Key features of this integration include automated threat enrichment, prebuilt response playbooks, and AI-driven correlation, shifting the cybersecurity approach from reactive to proactive [3][8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Visa and American Express are also enhancing their cybersecurity measures, with Visa utilizing advanced analytics and real-time threat intelligence, while American Express employs machine-learning technology for transaction monitoring [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Mastercard's shares have increased by 0.2%, contrasting with a 13.4% decline in the industry [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Mastercard is 28.13, above the industry average of 19.95, indicating a higher valuation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's 2025 earnings suggests a growth of 12.6% compared to the previous year [12]

Core Insights - The company continues to observe healthy trends in both consumer and business spending, as indicated in their Q3 earnings call [1] - Key metrics are showing consistent growth, reflecting a positive macro environment for the company [1] - Data from the first two weeks of November suggests that these positive trends in consumer spending remain intact [2]

Summary of Mastercard's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mastercard - **CFO**: Sachin Mehra - **Industry**: FinTech, Payment Processing Key Points Macro Environment and Consumer Spending - Mastercard continues to observe healthy trends in consumer and business spending, with key metrics showing consistent growth [3][4] - Consumer spending remains robust across affluent and mass demographics, with no significant signs of weakness in lower-end demographics [4][5] - The company is closely monitoring geopolitical and macroeconomic factors but remains optimistic about current trends [4] Agentic Commerce and Agent Pay - Mastercard is actively involved in agentic commerce, launching Agent Pay to facilitate transactions where consumers delegate authority to agents [6][7] - The strategy focuses on establishing trust within the ecosystem, ensuring secure transactions for consumers and legitimacy for merchants [8][9] - Agent Pay is already operational with select issuers in the U.S., with plans for a broader rollout by 2026 [10] - The potential for increased transaction volume is highlighted, as agentic payments may lead to multiple transactions instead of a single one, benefiting Mastercard's revenue model [12][13] Stablecoins - Mastercard views stablecoins as an incremental opportunity, engaging in both on-ramp (purchasing stablecoins) and off-ramp (using stablecoins for transactions) activities [16][17] - The company reported a 25% year-over-year growth in on-ramp volumes for Q3 [17] - Mastercard is also enabling stablecoin settlements through its Mastercard Move service, anticipating increased demand for interoperability among various stablecoins [18] Capital One Partnership and Financial Impact - The conversion of the Capital One debit portfolio to Discover is ongoing, expected to continue into early next year [20][21] - The revenue impact from this transition is anticipated to be manageable, with contractual obligations providing partial offsets through 2026 [22][26] - The company maintains a diversified portfolio and continues to engage with multiple issuers [20][23] Consumer Payments Opportunities - Mastercard sees significant opportunities in converting cash and checks to electronic payments, particularly in markets with high cash usage [31][34] - The company is focused on increasing transaction volumes and optimizing existing portfolios to drive growth [35][36] - Tokenization adoption is progressing, with approximately 35% of transactions being tokenized, leading to improved approval rates [37][38] Commercial Business Strategy - The addressable market for commercial payments is estimated at $80 trillion, with significant room for growth in both point-of-sale and invoice payments [43][44] - Mastercard is focusing on small business solutions and virtual card capabilities to tap into this market [45][48] Value-Added Services (VAS) - VAS now represents about 40% of Mastercard's revenue and is a key growth area [49] - The growth algorithm for VAS includes deeper penetration of existing solutions and the introduction of new services [51] - The acquisition of Recorded Future enhances Mastercard's capabilities in threat intelligence, expanding its addressable market [64][65] Risks and Opportunities - Key risks include rapid technological changes and regulatory challenges, which Mastercard aims to address proactively [67][68] - The company remains focused on its three growth pillars: consumer payments, commercial payments, and value-added services, with a commitment to capital allocation for growth [68] Additional Insights - The recent settlement agreement with U.S. merchants aims to lower acceptance costs and provide greater flexibility in card acceptance [55][56] - Mastercard's capital allocation strategy emphasizes maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing growth through organic means and acquisitions [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - Mastercard is currently considered the "Stock of the Day" due to being oversold and at a support level, indicating potential for a price rally [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently quiet as investors await NVIDIA's earnings, but Mastercard's oversold condition may attract buyers anticipating a price increase [1]. - Stocks typically trade within a defined range, and aggressive selling can push prices below this range, leading to oversold conditions [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a tool used to identify oversold stocks, and Mastercard's current RSI indicates it is in an oversold state [3]. - When the RSI line falls below a certain threshold, it signals oversold conditions, which can lead to increased buying interest and a potential price rise [5]. Group 3: Support Levels - Mastercard is at a support level, which is characterized by significant buying interest that can halt or reverse selloffs [5]. - Historical support for Mastercard was observed in June, and the current situation may replicate that, leading to a potential rally as buyers become more aggressive [6].

LATEST: 💳 Mastercard has expanded its Crypto Credential program to self-custody wallets, allowing users to send and receive cryptocurrencies using verified username-style aliases instead of complex wallet addresses. https://t.co/hufqvX7JTq ...

Core Insights - Mastercard has partnered with Polygon Labs to enable verified username transfers across self-custody wallets, enhancing the security and usability of digital asset transactions [1][2] - The collaboration includes Mercuryo, which will handle identity verification and issue human-readable aliases linked to verified individuals, streamlining the connection to self-custody wallets [2][4] Group 1: Partnership and Framework - The Crypto Credential framework introduced by Mastercard standardizes verification for blockchain addresses, allowing users to utilize unique identifiers similar to mainstream payment apps [2][3] - This initiative is part of Mastercard's broader strategy to enhance trust in digital token transfers and improve the accessibility of digital assets [4] Group 2: Technical Advantages - Polygon's Proof-of-Stake network offers fast settlement, low transaction costs, and high throughput, making it suitable for payment-scale activities [5] - Recent upgrades to the Polygon network have improved transaction finality and expanded capacity, further supporting Mastercard's objectives [5] Group 3: Additional Collaborations - Mastercard has also formed a partnership with Ripple, Gemini, and WebBank to explore the use of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin for settling fiat credit card transactions [6]