每经AI快讯，港股博彩股集体走低，截至发稿，美高梅中国(02282.HK)跌4.06%，报13.01港元；新濠国 际发展(00200.HK)跌4.21%，报4.55港元；金沙中国(01928.HK)跌3.04%，报18.18港元；永利澳门 (01128.HK)跌1.68%，报5.84港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock price volatility of MGM China (02282.HK) is directly related to the controversy surrounding the increase in licensing and branding fees imposed by its parent company, MGM International (MGM.N) [1] Group 1: Stock Price Movement - On December 29, 2025, Morgan Stanley reported that starting in 2026, MGM China will increase its licensing fee from 1.75% to 3.5% of monthly net revenue, resulting in an additional annual cost of HKD 1.2 billion [1] - Following this announcement, MGM China's stock price plummeted by 17%, closing at HKD 12.91, with a market value loss of approximately HKD 10.2 billion and trading volume surging to HKD 610 million, an increase of 8-9 times compared to usual [1] Group 2: Reasons for Stock Price Fluctuation - The fee increase is based on MGM China's performance improvement, with a projected 1.7 times increase in market share of total gaming revenue by 2025, reaching 16.2%, and a 1.6 times increase in adjusted EBITDAR to USD 1.203 billion [2] - The payment is directed to MGM B&D, a non-listed entity jointly owned by MGM International and Pansy Ho, with Citic Securities acknowledging the rationale behind the adjustment but noting insufficient communication exacerbated negative market sentiment [2] Group 3: Market Reaction - Morgan Stanley estimates that the increased fees will account for 15.2% of MGM China's EBITDA in 2026, significantly higher than competitors like Sands China (approximately 5%) and Galaxy Entertainment (zero), leading to valuation discounts [2] - Despite MGM China's price-to-earnings ratio being only 11.4 times (compared to Galaxy Entertainment's 17 times), investor sentiment remains cautious due to perceived prioritization of parent company interests [2] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional focus has shifted to dividend policies, with Citic Securities suggesting that increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to over 53% could mitigate the impact of rising costs, which is considered a manageable threshold [4] - In January 2026, Macau's gaming revenue increased by 24% year-on-year to MOP 22.6 billion, with mass market revenue accounting for 70-75%, supporting the industry's fundamental profitability recovery [4] Group 5: Future Developments - The fee controversy highlights issues regarding corporate governance transparency, and further increases in licensing fees or unmet dividend expectations may continue to suppress valuations [5] - The Macau gaming industry faces macro risks such as regulatory policies and intensified competition [5]

Core Insights - MGM China reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with net revenue reaching HKD 9.617 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, recovering to 169% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for MGM China was HKD 2.753 billion, up 29% year-on-year, recovering to 177% of the same period in 2019, primarily driven by the recovery of high-end business [1] - MGM International noted that the licensing and brand fee share charged to MGM China doubled, attributed to an increase in market share for MGM China [1] Institutional Views - Macquarie Securities adjusted MGM China's target price to HKD 21.6 on February 9, maintaining an "Outperform" rating based on Q4 performance and room upgrade plans [2] - CICC maintained an "Outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 16.10, but cautioned that new brand agreements could impact net profit by approximately 14% [2] - JPMorgan included MGM China as a top pick in Hong Kong stocks on February 12, optimistic about the recovery in the high-end market [2] Stock Performance - MGM China's stock experienced significant volatility, rising 4.11% to HKD 13.68 on February 9, but closing at HKD 13.58 on February 13, narrowing the cumulative gain to 3.35% with declining trading volume [3] - MGM International's stock fell 8.94% during the same period, with a single-day drop of 5.97% on February 12, influenced by market sentiment and technical adjustments [3] - The Hong Kong gaming sector saw a slight decline of 0.12%, while the U.S. gaming sector increased by 0.87% [3] Recent Events - MGM launched a National Art Fund project exhibition in Macau on February 5, aimed at enhancing brand cultural image, though the event had limited direct impact on stock prices [4]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而 產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 美 高 梅 中 國 控 股 有 限 公 司 （ 於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：2282及債務股份代號：6028, 40634, 5036） 內幕消息 我們的控股股東 美高梅國際酒店集團業績 截至2025年12月31日止年度 表格10-K年度報告 本公告乃根據證券及期貨條例（第571章）第XIVA部內幕消息條文及香港聯合交易所 有限公司證券上市規則第13.09及37.47B條刊發。 我們的控股股東美高梅國際酒店集團已於2026年2月11日（紐約時間下午4時20分）或 前後公佈其截至2025年12月31日止年度的年度報告。 美高梅中國的控股股東美高梅國際酒店集團是一家在美國紐約證券交易所上市的公司。 於本公告刊發日期，美高梅國際酒店集團實益擁有美高梅中國已發行股本約56%的權 益。 – 1 – 美高梅國際酒店集團已 ...

Group 1 - The core focus for investors in MGM China (02282) will be the dividend payout ratio, specifically whether there are indications that the annual payout ratio will increase from 50% to offset the impact of higher franchise and brand usage fees [1] - The current price of MGM China corresponds to an enterprise value multiple of 7.1 times for 2026, maintaining a "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 20.9, with the stock being one of the top picks alongside Galaxy Entertainment (00027) [1] - Regardless of the new franchise and brand fee allocation mechanism, the company has already distributed two special dividends in 2024, and some peers are also showing an expanding payout ratio trend [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for MGM China [5]. Core Insights - The report aligns with the views of Citic Lyon Research, indicating that MGM International's recent management comments justify the higher licensing and brand fees charged to MGM China, although prior communications could have been handled better [5]. - The market is now focused on whether MGM China will increase its dividend payout ratio to offset the impact of rising costs on profitability, which Citic Lyon believes is a manageable threshold [5][8]. - The significant increase in licensing and brand fee revenue is attributed to MGM China's improved market share and Ebitdar, with total gaming revenue expected to grow 1.7 times to 16.2% and Ebitdar by 1.6 times to $1.203 billion by 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Licensing Fee Debate - The report discusses the rationale behind MGM International's decision to charge higher fees to MGM China, supported by reverse engineering analysis [5][7]. Dividend Payout Focus - Investors are expected to closely monitor the potential increase in the dividend payout ratio from 50% to above 53% to mitigate the effects of higher fees [8]. Catalysts for Growth - Continuous growth in the mid-market gaming segment, expansion of dividend payout ratios, and supportive Chinese policies are seen as factors driving profit recovery [9]. Company Overview - MGM China operates two casinos in Macau, focusing on high-quality mid-market strategies, with approximately 750 gaming tables, 1,920 slot machines, and 2,003 hotel rooms/suites [11]. Financial Metrics - As of February 9, 2026, MGM China's stock price is HKD 13.14, with a market capitalization of $6.39 billion and a consensus target price of HKD 18.17 [14].

Group 1 - The core focus for investors in MGM China will be the dividend payout ratio, specifically whether there are indications that the annual payout ratio will increase from 50% to offset the impact of higher franchise and brand usage fees [1] - The expectation threshold for this increase is considered low by the firm [1] - MGM China has already distributed two special dividends in 2024, regardless of the new franchise and brand fee allocation mechanism [1] Group 2 - Some peers in the industry are also showing an expanding dividend payout ratio trend [1] - The current price of MGM China corresponds to an enterprise value multiple of 7.1 times for 2026 [1] - The firm maintains a "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 20.9, with MGM China being one of its preferred stocks alongside Galaxy Entertainment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China (02282) for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] Financial Performance - The group's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, which is 6% higher than the firm's forecast [1] - Total gaming revenue reached HKD 10.5 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the firm's prediction by 3.1% [1] - VIP room business grew by 40% year-on-year, while mass market business increased by 20%, indicating strong growth in both segments [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of HKD 2.75 billion, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter growth, surpassing market expectations by 11% [1] Strategic Initiatives - MGM China plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its high-end appeal and increase market share [1] - Management indicated strong hotel booking conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] Dividend Policy - The firm assumes a dividend payout ratio of 50% for MGM China, consistent with the company's updated dividend policy, estimating a leading industry dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China (02282) for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] Financial Performance - MGM China's Q4 performance exceeded expectations with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, which is 6% higher than Macquarie's forecast [1] - Total gaming revenue reached HKD 10.5 billion, up 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Macquarie's prediction by 3.1% [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by 40% year-on-year, while mass market revenue increased by 20%, indicating strong growth in both segments [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of HKD 2.75 billion, representing a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter growth, surpassing market expectations by 11% [1] Strategic Initiatives - MGM China plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its high-end appeal and increase market share [1] - Management indicated strong hotel booking conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] Dividend Policy - Macquarie assumes a dividend payout ratio of 50% for MGM China, consistent with the company's updated dividend policy, estimating a leading industry dividend yield of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that MGM China (02282.HK) exceeded expectations for Q4 2025, with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, surpassing the firm's forecast by 6% [1] Financial Performance - Total gaming revenue reached HKD 10.5 billion, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase and an 11% quarter-on-quarter increase, exceeding predictions by 3.1% [1] - VIP gaming revenue grew by 40% year-on-year, while mass market revenue increased by 20%, demonstrating strong growth in both segments [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached HKD 2.75 billion, marking a new quarterly high with a 29% year-on-year increase and a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase, exceeding market expectations by 11% [1] Future Projections - Macquarie has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - The target price has been slightly increased by 1% from HKD 21.3 to HKD 21.6, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to upgrade hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its appeal in the high-end market and increase market share [1]