Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that MGM China (02282) is expected to achieve an adjusted property EBITDA of $353 million in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of approximately 16% [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA, after accounting for VIP room win rates, is projected to be $322 million, aligning with market expectations [1] - UBS maintains a target price of HKD 18.5 for MGM China, with a "Buy" rating [1] Management Insights - MGM China's management indicates that the competitive environment remains stable and expresses optimism regarding the Lunar New Year holiday, noting that booking trends are "extremely encouraging" [1] - Management reports no signs of the typical seasonal slowdown before the Lunar New Year this year [1] - Due to limited room supply, management will continue to focus on revenue management strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that MGM China (02282) is expected to achieve an adjusted property EBITDA of USD 353 million in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of approximately 16% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA, after accounting for VIP room win rates, is projected to be USD 322 million, aligning with market expectations [1] - UBS maintains a target price of HKD 18.5 for MGM China, with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Management Insights - MGM China's management indicates that the competitive environment remains stable and expresses optimism regarding the Lunar New Year holiday, citing "extremely encouraging" booking trends [1] - Management notes the absence of typical seasonal downturns before the Lunar New Year this year, which is a departure from previous years [1] - Due to limited room supply, management will continue to focus on revenue management strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that MGM China exceeded expectations in its Q4 performance, with net revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.62 billion, surpassing the firm's forecast by 6% [1] Financial Performance - Total gaming revenue rose by 21% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.5 billion, exceeding the firm's prediction by 3.1% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a quarterly record high, increasing by 29% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2.75 billion, which is 11% above market expectations [1] Strategic Initiatives - MGM China plans to upgrade its hotel rooms this year, which is expected to enhance its high-end appeal and increase market share [1] - Management reported strong hotel booking conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] Forecast Adjustments - The firm has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for MGM China for 2025 to 2027 by 3.1%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively, primarily reflecting the better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] - Target price has been slightly increased from HKD 21.3 to HKD 21.6, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China is expected to achieve a net revenue of HKD 9.617 billion in Q4 2025, reaching 169% of the level seen in the same period of 2019 [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be HKD 2.753 billion, exceeding market expectations of HKD 2.449 billion [1] - Total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau has recovered to 214% and 104% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, respectively [1] Analyst Ratings - The firm maintains its EBITDA forecasts for MGM China for 2026 and 2027, sustaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 16.1 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that MGM China’s adjusted property EBITDA for Q4 2025 is projected to be $353 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 16% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted VIP room win rate leads to an EBITDA of $322 million, aligning with market expectations [1] - The management expresses optimism regarding the Lunar New Year holiday, with encouraging booking trends observed [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The competitive landscape within the industry remains stable, with no signs of the typical seasonal slowdown before the Lunar New Year [1] - Due to limited room supply, the management will continue to focus on revenue management strategies [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a target price of HKD 18.5 for MGM China, with a "Buy" rating [1]

里昂发表研报指，美高梅中国2025年第四季度的物业EBITDA按年增长29%至27.53亿港元，较该行及市 场预期各高出9%，主要受路凼美狮美高梅(MGM Cotai)高于平均的贵宾厅胜率推动。总博彩收入市场占 有率亦按年扩大0.6个百分点至16.3%。即使剔除因高于平均的VIP胜率所带来的2.33亿港元影响，列账 物业EBITDA利润率仍按年提升0.2个百分点至26.8%。此利润率持续接近公司目标的高20%范围，显示 营运开支及回扣的有效控制。该行维持对美高梅中国的"跑赢大市"评级，目标价为20.9港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that MGM China is expected to achieve a record quarterly EBITDA of HKD 27.53 billion in Q4 2025, with an annual EBITDA exceeding HKD 100 billion and a market share of over 16% by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 1 - The EBITDA margin improved from 26.8% in Q4 2024 to 28.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting effective cost control [1] - Management has not observed signs of a pre-festival off-peak period, with optimistic booking trends ahead of the Lunar New Year [1] - The waiting list for high-end hotel product bookings at MGM China is significantly long, indicating strong demand [1] Group 2 - New suite projects expected to open between July 2025 and mid-2026 are anticipated to help the company maintain its market share [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China with a target price of HKD 18.25 unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its EBITDA forecast for MGM China (02282) for 2026 and 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to 6x 2026e EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 16.10, which corresponds to 8x 2026e EV/EBITDA, indicating a 23% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1 - In Q4 2025, adjusted EBITDA exceeded Visible Alpha consensus expectations, with net revenue reaching HKD 9.617 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, recovering to 169% of Q4 2019 levels [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was HKD 2.753 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16%, recovering to 177% of Q4 2019 levels, surpassing Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of HKD 2.449 billion [2] - The strong performance of MGM China is attributed to the continued outperformance of its premium business, with MGM Cotai and MGM Macau's total gaming revenue recovering to 214% and 104% of Q4 2019 levels, respectively [2] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, MGM China signed a new long-term brand agreement with MGM Resorts, increasing the brand usage fee from 1.75% to 3.5% of monthly net revenue, effective from 2026 for a 20-year term, with an annual payment cap set to increase gradually [2] - The annual cap for brand usage fees in 2026 is set at USD 188 million, compared to USD 60 million in 2025, with the economic benefits of the new fee structure allocated 66.7% to MGM Resorts and 33.3% to Ms. Pansy Ho [2] - The new brand fee structure is expected to have a significant negative impact on the company's net profit, potentially dragging down CICC's net profit forecast by approximately 14% [2] Group 3 - Management indicated strong hotel booking performance for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday starting February 17, 2026, with stable business performance leading up to the holiday [3]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持美高梅中国(02282) 2026年及2027年EBITDA预测。公司当前 股价对应6倍2026e EV/EBITDA。该行维持"跑赢行业"评级及16.10港元目标价，对应8倍2026e EV/EBITDA，目标价较当前股价具备23%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 美高梅中国品牌使用费由月度净收入的1.75%上调至3.5%，20年期，自2026年起生效，按月支付，品牌 使用费的年度上限逐年钉定。2026 年美高梅中国的品牌使用费支付上限为 1.88 亿美元（2025年支付上 限为 6,000 万美元）。 新协议下，品牌使用费的经济利益由美高梅度假集团获得 66.7%，何超琼女士获得 33.3%。该行预计， 新的品牌使用费率的定价及年度支付上限或对公司净利润造成较大不利影响（相当于对中金预测净利润 造成约14%的拖累）。 管理层业绩会上表示，2026 年春节假期（ 2026 年 2 月 17 日起）酒店预订表现强劲，春节前业务表现 亦较为稳健。 风险提示： 复苏速度低于预期；行业竞争加剧导致市场份额流失。 4Q25 经调整EBITDA好于Visible Alpha一致预 ...

我们预计，新的品牌使用费率的定价及年度支付上限或对公司净利润造成较大不利影响（相当于对中金 预测净利润造成约14%的拖累）。 管理层业绩会上表示，2026 年春节假期（ 2026 年 2 月 17日起）酒店预订表现强劲，春节前业务表现亦 较为稳健。 机构：中金公司 研究员：吴昇勇/王嘉钰/侯利维 4Q25 经调整EBITDA 好于Visible Alpha 一致预期 美高梅中国公布4Q25 业绩：净收入为96.17 亿港元（同比上升21%，环比上升13%），恢复至4Q19 水 平的169%；经调整EBITDA 为27.53 亿港元（同比上升29%，环比上升16%），恢复至4Q19 水平的 177%，高于Visible Alpha 一致预期的24.49亿港元。我们认为，美高梅中国的表现主要得益于高端业务 持续超预期，美狮美高梅及澳门美高梅总博彩收入分别恢复至4Q19水平的214%和104%。 发展趋势 4Q25，美高梅中国与美高梅度假集团（MGM US）签署新的长期品牌协议1（20 年期，自2026 年起生 效），品牌使用费由月度净收入的1.75%上调至3.5%，按月支付，品牌使用费的年度上限逐年钉定。 202 ...